gcc fall 14 section 10 action - university of idahojhicke/courses/globalc...adapta on plans) +list...

Global Climate Change 1 Prof J. Hicke

GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014

Learning outcomes

  understand mi�ga�on and adapta�on, and know the differences and interac�ons

  describe ways of mi�ga�ng future climate change

  understand the aspects of climate change preparedness planning (impacts, vulnerability, risk assessments, adapta�on plans)

  list human or natural “assets” subject to vulnerability and in need of adapta�on

  be aware of ethical issues about climate change, mi�ga�on, and adapta�on

Sec�on 10: Ac�on



Outline

10.1 Mi�ga�on 10.2 Adapta�on


en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representa�ve_Concentra�on_Pathways#mediaviewer/

File:All_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentra�on.png Inman, Nature Climate Change, 2011

Representa�ve Concentra�on Pathways (RCPs)

CO2 emissions (fluxes) CO2 concentra�ons (stocks)


“The benefits of strong, early ac�on on climate change outweigh the costs”

Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, 2006


Exis�ng power technologies used widely

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ca�enom_Nuclear_Power_Plant

Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.



Emerging power technologies



Infographic about climate change from World Bank

www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/11/23/infographic-‐climate-‐change-‐la�n-‐america-‐middle-‐east-‐central-‐asia

  La�n America and the Caribbean

  Eastern Europe and Central Asia

  Middle East and North Africa


Infographic about climate change from World Bank

www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/11/23/infographic-‐climate-‐change-‐la�n-‐america-‐middle-‐east-‐central-‐asia


Pathways to stabilizing CO2 emissions

Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004

With exis�ng technologies, can society stabiliza�on CO2 emissions? Need 7 technologies, each of which reduces emissions in 50 years by 1 Gt C/year (a “wedge”). (Now 9 are needed because of no ac�on since 2004.)

Global Climate Change 10 Prof J. Hicke Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004

energy conserva�on and efficiency

fuel switching, C capture storage

15 wedges:

alterna�ve energy sources

land management

Pathways to stabilizing CO2 emissions

Global Climate Change 11 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Carbon capture and storage


Current fossil fuel+cement emissions = 26,000 Mt CO2/yr

Mi�ga�on op�ons in agriculture

IPCC, Working Group III, 2007


In 2030

Mi�ga�on op�ons in agriculture



Current fossil fuel+cement

emissions = 26 Gt CO2/yr

Cumula�ve C by 2050 and by 2100

Mi�ga�on op�ons in forestry



Current fossil fuel+cement emissions = 26 Gt CO2/yr

Cumula�ve CO2 by 2055

Mi�ga�on op�ons in forestry


Global Climate Change 16 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Geoengineering possibili�es



Outline

10.1 Mi�ga�on 10.2 Adapta�on

Global Climate Change 18 Prof J. Hicke Glick et al. 2011

whether or how a system is affected by a change in

climate

how much climate change a system will experience ability to

minimize impact

risk assessment, adapta�on plan to minimize effect

suscep�bility of a system to adverse effects from climate

change

Climate change impact and vulnerability assessments

Global Climate Change 19 Prof J. Hicke Glick et al. 2011

Example: building A/C turn-‐on in spring

turn on A/C when daily maximum temperature

exceeds 62 ºF

spring temperature will increase by 5 ºF by

2030 short term: turn on A/C earlier

long term: building modifi-‐ca�ons

low (but costly)

turn-‐on day will advance by three

weeks

risk assessment, adapta�on plan to minimize effect


  iden�fy aspects of INL that could be affected by climate change

  quan�fy how these systems/components will respond

  determine the capacity to adapt to minimize impact

  assess climate change risks (consequence × probability)   develop adapta�on plan to minimize nega�ve impacts

Goals of climate adapta�on planning

www.id.doe.gov www.inl.gov Dalton et al., 2013


Physical assets and real property   redistribu�on of popula�on   hydropower energy produc�on disrup�on   availability of potable and non-‐potable water   probability/severity of fire   storm events/flooding/erosion   decreased hea�ng needs in winter   increased cooling needs in summer   electrical shortages   sea level rise   hurricanes   coastal erosion   fuel supply disrup�on due to severe storms

Programma�c

  increased energy, water costs   opportuni�es for clean energy development

and deployment   groundwater remedia�on   budget considera�ons   historical or cultural preserva�on on DOE lands   landfill/waste sites

Examples of systems/components poten�ally vulnerable to climate change (at DOE level)

Human health and safety   disease   quality of life   heat stress   transporta�on infrastructure

disturbances, including to DOE facili�es and supply chain

DOE 2014 Interim Climate Change Adapta�on Plan


  Is the system already able to accommodate changes in climate?   Are there barriers to a system's ability to accommodate changes in climate?

  Is the system already stressed in ways that will limit the ability to accommodate changes in climate?

  Is the rate of projected climate change likely to be faster than the adaptability of the system?

  Are there efforts already underway to address impacts of climate change related to the system?

Considera�ons for determining adap�ve capacity

USDOT FHA, 2012; Snover et al., 2007 Glick et al. 2011


combine:   exposure (climate change informa�on)   sensi�vity (response to climate change)   adap�ve capacity

two approaches

  quan�ta�ve analysis (uncommon)   expert opinion

  yields low/medium/high ra�ng

Determining vulnerability

USDOT FHA, 2012; Snover et al., 2007 Glick et al. 2011


Iden�fying sectors/systems/components at INL that could be affected by climate change

Glick et al. 2011

Need to consider both direct and indirect effects


INL impact and vulnerability assessment sensi�vity exposure

adapt. capacity impact vuln.

Glick et al. 2011

Global Climate Change 26 Prof J. Hicke IPCC, WG2, 2013


Recommended in general plans Nat. Clim. Assessment, 2014

States with Climate Adapta�on Plans


village reloca�on because of sea level

rise, erosion

upgrading sewer systems

LA: $10 M for resiliency (planning, capacity, guidance)

ci�es formed adapta�on alliance

to share info

Na�onal Climate Assessment, 2014

Current adapta�on ac�vi�es


USDA Forest Service climate adapta�on plans

slide courtesy Dave Peterson, USFS


American Society of Adapta�on Professionals


Vulnerabilities and adaptation WATER

Vulnerability   Higher peak flows in fall

and winter

Adaptation strategy   Design infrastructure to

accommodate higher peak flows

Slide courtesy of D. Peterson, USFS


Vulnerabilities and adaptation WATER

Vulnerability   Higher peak flows in fall

and winter

Adaptation tactics   Install larger culverts   Decommission roads in

floodplains   Relocate campgrounds

subject to flooding



Vulnerabilities and adaptation FISHERIES

Vulnerability   Higher stream

temperatures will degrade habitat

Adaptation strategy   Restore and maintain

cold-water habitat



Vulnerabilities and adaptation FISHERIES

Vulnerability   Higher stream

temperatures will degrade habitat

Adaptation tactics   Map cold-water habitat   Restore side channels   Increase shade in

riparian areas



Vulnerabilities and adaptation VEGETATION

Vulnerability   Wildfire will burn more

area and over a longer fire season

Adaptation strategy   Increase resilience of

forest ecosystems to more frequent fire



Vulnerabilities and adaptation VEGETATION

Vulnerability   Wildfire will burn more

area and over a longer fire season

Adaptation tactics   Reduce stand densities   Accelerate hazardous

fuel treatments   Manage for diversity of

stand ages Slide courtesy of D. Peterson, USFS


1. restraint (do nothing) 2. resilience (buy �me)

  facilitate an ecosystem’s or organism’s ability to rebound/recovery from a disturbance

  remove other stressors (invasive species, human pressure)

  thin forests to decrease drought vulnerability

3. resistance (buy �me)   fuel breaks to stop wildfires   controlling insect outbreaks   drip irriga�on

4. realignment (long-‐term change)   assisted migra�on   plant with species be�er adapted to new/future climate following severe disturbance

  mixing genotypes from other regions (that may be more resilient/resistant)

Adapta�on op�ons in wilderness areas


“Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) assisted migra�on poten�al: tes�ng establishment

north of the species range”

McLane and Aiken, Ecol. Appl., 2012

Assisted migra�on of species


Trial loca�ons (black dots)

Seed sources (white squares)




Results of trials


coldest sites


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