gdansk conference october 26-27 th, 2006 [email protected] 1 regional assessments of sea level...
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Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Regional assessments of sea level rise and river floods by computer based expert
systems: Dealing with uncertainty
J. Kropp, M. Kallache, H. Rust, K. EisenackPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Structure
1. How to deal with uncertainty in the adaptation discussion?
2. Adaptation to sea level rise: Regional assessments via DIVA
3. River floods assessment, limitations and Chances: The Vistula example
4. Consequences for local adaptation policies
5. Conclusion
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Where are our „Achilles heels“: in the economic, natural,Where are our „Achilles heels“: in the economic, natural,and social sense? and social sense?
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Coast Lines Lower Saxony0-2000AD
Source: Behre 1999
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
„Miserable Waterflood in Lower-Germany 1717“
At the North sea coastdyke construction since 1100AD
Reasons:Maladaptation!mainly landuse
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Back to Reality:
River Elbe Flood 2002/Pärnu Storm Surge 2005
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
How to assess “protection level”
Wave overflow: Return level right Weser bank for current dyke heights (3900yr)Climate change scenario: average high tide + 70cm +3.8% increase of wind speed(return level 1000yrs).
(after Liedermann & Zimmermann 2003) COSTS? Secondary effects?…..
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Initial Settings for DIVA RunsProtection levelProtection level: 1000yr/return level, storm surge/river flood: 1000yr/return level, storm surge/river floodDike failure (breach) modeDike failure (breach) mode: wave overflow: wave overflowTidal basin, nourishmentTidal basin, nourishment: CBA: CBAMigrationMigration allowed due to changing env. conditions: yes allowed due to changing env. conditions: yesTime steps of calculationTime steps of calculation: 5 yrs: 5 yrsSimulation timeSimulation time: 2000-2100: 2000-2100Input SRES scenariosInput SRES scenarios: A1FI („worst case“), B2 („best case“); : A1FI („worst case“), B2 („best case“); regionalized SLR scenarios based on PIK‘s CLIMBER modelregionalized SLR scenarios based on PIK‘s CLIMBER model(for each SRES family, low/medium/high-uniform/regionalized)(for each SRES family, low/medium/high-uniform/regionalized)
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Regional Sealevel Rise: 1995-2100SRES-A1FI/B2
How large the adaptationHow large the adaptationcosts will be?costs will be?
Best case: B2
Worst case: A1FI
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Adaptation Costs: Sea Level Rise(dike construction & preservation, beach nourishment, etc.)
Year 2000
Year: 2100
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Total Adaptation Costs (Mio US$)
A1FI: Most relevant for Estonia due to sandy beaches and no dikes
Start-up investmentsto guarantee 1000yrprotection levelneeded....
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
River impact length (1000yr flood)
A1FI
B2
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Other Possible Things.....
Salinity intrusion costsSea dike costsRiver dike costsPeople actually flooded per storm surgeSand lossLoss of flatsBeach nourishment costsArea influenced by salinization due to slrTidal basin demand for sand nourishment....
Typical expert system which means that usage by stakeholders Typical expert system which means that usage by stakeholders Needs involvement of experts for simulation runs and interpretationNeeds involvement of experts for simulation runs and interpretation
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Improved Flood Risk Assessment
Retrospective on river run-offs: assumptions needed, e.g. climate change signal can be found in run-off data (trend = nonstationarity)
Main results:No uniform behaviour for rivers worldwideStandard statistics is unsuitable for assessment tasksAdequate analytical procedures can confine uncertainty
Examples (annual – stationary, implies no trends!): Odra/Gozdowice (109729 km2, Poland)Vistula/Tczew (194376 km2, Poland)Daugava/Daugavpils (64500 km2Latvia)Nemunas/Smalininkai (81200 km2 Lithuania)
But is this the end of the story?
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
TrendTrendss and Extremes in and Extremes in Time SeriesTime Series
Extremes?
-2
-1
0
1
2
0 1 2 3 4 5
t
Definition:Definition: A trend is a long-term movement which can be A trend is a long-term movement which can be distinguished from oscillation and noise.distinguished from oscillation and noise.
x(t) = Trend(t) + Oscillations(t) + Noise(t)x(t) = Trend(t) + Oscillations(t) + Noise(t)
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
PRUDENCE ComparisonPRUDENCE Comparison1961/90 – 2075/2100, A2 Hadley Boundary1961/90 – 2075/2100, A2 Hadley Boundary
T (°C)T (°C) P (%)P (%)
BSR Countries*BSR Countries*
(model mean)(model mean)
TTaa T (DJF)T (DJF) T(JJA)T(JJA) PPaa P(DJF)P(DJF) P(JJA)P(JJA)
DenmarkDenmark 1.11.1 1.01.0 1.11.1 2.42.4 9.89.8 -6.4-6.4
EstoniaEstonia 1.41.4 1.61.6 1.21.2 4.24.2 10.210.2 4.54.5
FinlandFinland 1.41.4 1.71.7 1.01.0 5.85.8 10.910.9 4.64.6
Germany NorthGermany North 1.21.2 1.11.1 1.31.3 0.10.1 6.06.0 -7.3-7.3
LatviaLatvia 1.41.4 1.61.6 1.21.2 3.23.2 9.79.7 1.81.8
LithuaniaLithuania 1.41.4 1.51.5 1.21.2 2.02.0 8.88.8 -1.1-1.1
PolandPoland 1.31.3 1.31.3 1.31.3 0.70.7 6.06.0 -4.0-4.0
Sweden NorthSweden North 1.31.3 1.51.5 1.01.0 5.35.3 9.09.0 2.72.7
Sweden SouthSweden South 1.21.2 1.31.3 1.11.1 3.53.5 11.411.4 -2.1-2.1
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Gauge: Daugava/Daugavapils (JJA)
Linear trend in meanand variance (1,1,0 - obtained via model fitroutines)
Design flood valuesdiffer significantly!
More torrential rainin summer: regime shift!
Kallache/Rust/Kropp 2005: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Bootstrapping for Confining Uncertainty
Results:Red: theory, asymptotic fit
Grey: bootstrap ensemble
100yr return level9
Estimates for „design flood values“ are too small (6-15% difference!)
Rust/Kallache/Kropp 2006: Advances in WaterResources Res., under review
Gauge: Vistula/Tczew:Catchment: ~200.000 km2
Length: 1900-1994
Problem: data series too short!1. Huge model library (more than 50)2. Define model selection criteria3. Select best fitting model4. Generate bootstrap ensemble5. Perform statistics
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
My demand:Inclusion of these procedure into the daily
practice
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
1. Improved technique integrated and views can reduce adverse impacts
2. Communities can adapt autonomously only partly, they need help
of scientists
4. Planned (anticipated )adaptation measures usually have immediate benefits
6. Adaptive capacity varies considerably among countries, regions and socio-economic groups
8. Enhancement of adaptive capacity is necessary to reduce vulnerability, especially for the most vulnerable (people,
regions…)
9. Current knowledge of adaptation & adaptive capacity is insufficient
10. Technical progress is essential for suitable adaptation
Conclusion - Main Findings with Respect to Adaptation
Gdansk Conference October 26-27th, 2006
Climate Disruptions,Heart Attacks and Market Crashes
We need a new scienceand planning for disasters....
Bunde/Kropp/Schellnhuber, Springer 2002