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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 1 Towards a Climate Impact Monitoring Indicators, archetypes and success factors for action Jrgen P. Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Reserach Budapest, Sept. 4-5 th 2008

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Hierarchy of Adaptation Strategies & Concepts 1. Global/Supranational 2. National KomPass Kompetenzzentrum Klimafolgen und Anpassung 3. Regional/Local:? issue of ongoing research Challenge: Strengthening efficiency of institutions, e.g. by adequate facilitation/capacities, but how.... COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 29.6.2007 COM(2007) 354 final GREEN PAPER FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Climate change: building adaptive capacity of local and regional authorities Chamber of the Regions

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 induced, intensified Portugal 2003 Tuvalu 2005 UK/Norfolk 2007 Randa/Switzerland 1991 > 8 Mio. to.? - safe environments - Question: fight against or living with CC? Difficulties: Insufficient knowledge Organisational problems Capacity problems Problem of scales Understanding: Information, Awareness, Communication,Vulnerability, Risk,Preparedness No action?

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Necessary Preconditions for successful Adaptation Distinguish between adaptation and adaptive capacity! 1. Systems knowledge 2. Problem awareness 3. Adequate instruments 4. Success measures (time?, which metric) Indicators measuring only a state are not sufficient!

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 5 Stimulus: Storm Exposed unit: Forest sectors Indicators: Tree types, slope, rel. storm intensity/frequency Sectoral Vulnerability North-Rhine Westphalia/Germany (1999) Source: Kropp et al. 2006, Climatic Change Actual Damage 2007 after Cyclone Kyrill Nothing happens

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Awareness/knowledge is a necessary, but not sufficient precondition for adequate action! Drowning New Orleans by Mark Fischetti Scientific American (October 1, 2001) The boxes are stacked eight feet high and line the walls of the large, windowless room. Inside them are new body bags, 10,000 in all. If a big, slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the right track, it would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans under twenty feet of water. "As the water recedes", says Walter Maestri, a local emergency management director, "we expect to find a lot of dead bodies". New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west. And because of a damning confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi Delta, which buffers the city from the gulf, is also rapidly disappearing. A year from now another 25 to 30 square miles of delta marsh - an area the size of Manhattan - will have vanished. An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each loss gives a storm surge a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into the bowl, trapping one million people inside and another million in surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would be impossible because the surging water would cut off the few escape routes. Scientists at Louisiana State University (LSU), who have modeled hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced computers...................

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 7 Risk prone area below 1m Tourism, Water & Sea-level rise: Saidia Large scale tourism bad practice: Why developing countries often follow the same pattern: Economy first vs. Sustainability first Quelle: Tekken & Kropp 2008

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 8 Umweltlimits fr Saidia/Moulouya 1961-19901976-200520052050ff 383mm350mm245mm-100mm 2005 available: Fresh water (~16 mm = 7% of prec.) 880 * 10 6 m 3 /J groundwater (partly salinised)450 * 10 6 m 3 /J actual: 1330 * 10 6 m 3 /J Demand (* 10 6 m 3 )20052015 Population (potable water) ~2.4. Mio~2.5 Mio. 96100 (+3.8%) economy first golf courses: 1.9ha/hole; 9,000 m 3 /yr/ha210ha: 1.9400ha: 3.6 (+88%) 1 tourist ~ 6-800 l/d0.5 (?)2.6 (+420%) irrigated land 6,500m 3 /ha/J150 10 3 : 975180 10 3 : 1170 (+20%) Industry80117 (+46%) in 2015 163 bn l/yr below sust. level Source: Tekken & Kropp 2008

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 EU Development Programme Developing Policies and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Region (ASTRA, finished 2007) 38 Partners from 7 European countries Most of them administrative bodies, management authorities, etc. 15 case study areas were situated in Estonia, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Lativa and Poland 15 case study areas were situated in Estonia, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Lativa and Poland Are we ready for adaptation?

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Some results from systematic examinations Problem awareness is primarily framed by potential impacts in the case study regions, little explicit knowledge on policy responses, exposure units are only described in a very vague or general way. Problem awareness is primarily framed by potential impacts in the case study regions, little explicit knowledge on policy responses, exposure units are only described in a very vague or general way. Climate change is still not a priority on the local or regional level, and lack of financial resources hinders adaptation. Climate change is still not a priority on the local or regional level, and lack of financial resources hinders adaptation. Many constraining institutional arrangements are seen as informal. They have the form of complaints about soft factors as missing knowledge and citizens awareness, inadequate education, political inaction and bad coordination of diverse institutions. Many constraining institutional arrangements are seen as informal. They have the form of complaints about soft factors as missing knowledge and citizens awareness, inadequate education, political inaction and bad coordination of diverse institutions. Problems are more found on the local scale, while enabling institutions and actors are seen on higher levels. It is likely that there is a shift of responsibilities to higher institutional scales (mitigation?). Problems are more found on the local scale, while enabling institutions and actors are seen on higher levels. It is likely that there is a shift of responsibilities to higher institutional scales (mitigation?). Most existing climate change policies are related to Most existing climate change policies are related to Natural hazards (event related) Natural hazards (event related) National greenhouse gas mitigation strategies National greenhouse gas mitigation strategies Although some responses advert at local interactions between actors influencing implementation of adaptation policies, there is little strategic knowledge on who supports or constrains adaptation to climate change. Although some responses advert at local interactions between actors influencing implementation of adaptation policies, there is little strategic knowledge on who supports or constrains adaptation to climate change. Eisenack/Tekken/Kropp (2007): Coastline Report

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 11 Management of or Adaptation to risks need knowledge about mechanisms! .but how to analyse entangled dynamics of socio- ecological systems? .how to integrate policy on an acceptable level of abstraction? how to assess efficiency of management options?

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Adaptation Functionals and Archetypes Challenges modelling adaptation entangeled impacts, exposure units and responses but need for transfer of adaptation strategies aggregation of damages and adaptations on spatial and institutional scales Approaches on an intermediate level of abstraction archetypes of adaptation (including action dimension) adaptation functionals (classes)

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 ASTRA: Preliminary Archetypes ArchetypePolicy recommendations Compensation dilemma: erosion of planning standards in high risk areas, investor-driven particular interests, ad-hoc compensation schemes after desasters Mandatory building and planning codes enforced from higher institutional levels, clear rules for liabilities Shifting responsibilities: complaints about public awareness and other institutions, call for higher institutional levels Confront different stakeholders, initiate joint commitees, awareness campaigns, resources form higher levels Water supply: changed hydrological cycle, privatisation, closing of wells, old infrastructure Keep community control, consider CC in infrastructure redevelopment

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Qualitative and Quantitative Methods Archetype XYZ Case ACase BCase CCase idiographic local maps global maps mathematical models causal loop diagrams ((M+ x y)) ((U- y z) (0 max)) ((MULT x y z)) qualitative models 0111 1001Case B 1000Case A boolean analysis participatory theories scenarios games cf. Kropp & Scheffran 2007 Data driven models

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Research Themes Theoretical development Aggregation and scale issues (adaptation functionals, archetypes of adaptation) Measuring adaptation and adaptedness Assessment and use of transparent, science- based vulnerability indicators Basic questions (e.g. terminology, necessity of policy action and anticipation)

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Faces of Vulnerability: Useful for comparison Disaster Management Community Climate Change Community Development Community Spatial scale local individual Challenges & Views Disaster mitigation Robust Infrastructure Event oriented view Long-term climate development & protection Exposed units and their capacities Socio-economic constraints Millenium Development Goals Current Livelihood conditions Global/regional Climate Change

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 17 Vulnerability, subjective but good for comparison Prepared for UN Sigma Xi 2006

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Top Down: National Policy Bottom up: Local Experience Science & Stakeholder interaction Institutional efficiency!

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Construction of Archetypes Is a social process Style of description based on common methodological ground Discourse on shape and priority of patterns Quality control by process documentation, achivement of (external) objectives, case studies, available theories, validation of archetypes Needs refinement and operationalization Possible with different methods

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Semi-formalised elements of Adaptation Measures constructing archetypes Time scale Duration (fixed/open) Temporal scope Stream of costs & benefits Actors & Type Normative orientation Institutional level Individual NGO Purpose & Form Spatial scale Structural, legal, financial,... Retreat, prevent, restore Performance Costs Efficiency Implementability Society Vulnerability Target impacts Changes of socio-economics Mid-term goal: shared problem solving competence (adaptation wizard) How adaptation occurs Effect on policy Involved goods/properties Adaptive control Area of intervention Regulatory instrument Experiences BaWNRW-I/II

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Hypothesis: To similar problems can be responded by similar solutions! Questions: How vague or concrete are existing measures defined? Are typical adaptations composed of different measures, or are they simple building blocks? Are there established classifications that help to distinguish or to generate measures? What kind of activities are considered to be an adaptation?.....let us start with the discussions

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 Towards a Global Climate Impact & Adaptation Information System Combining: Scenarios, Impacts Infrastructure, Solutions Information about adaptation experiences, costs (via Geo-Tags), etc. Source: PIK/Kropp & Costa (2008) Kropp & Daschkeit (2008)

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kropp@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~kropp/ Singapore, July 14th 2008 PIK S V IRTUAL V EGETATION V ISUALISER