geo 827: hyperspectral rs and land surface model benchmarking
TRANSCRIPT
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GEO 827: Hyperspectral RS and Land Surface Model
BenchmarkingNovember 10 & 12, 2015
Kyla Dahlin
Assistant Professor, Geography Department
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Outline for the next 2 days
• Intro to Kyla
• Intro to Hyperspectral RS
• Project examples
• Lab – exploring imaging spectroscopy in ERDAS
• Intro to Land Surface Models & Benchmarking
• Project example
• Lab – simple climate envelope modeling in R
Kyla Dahlin - GEO827 - 20151110
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Climate and Plants
Kyla Dahlin - GEO827 - 20151110
Holdridge Life Zones (1947)
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Climate Change and Plants
CO2
water
light
dark
albedo
biogeochemicalcycling
wind /surface roughness
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History of Climate Change Research1824: Joseph Fourier figures out that the Earth’s
surface would be colder in the absence of an atmosphere (“Remarques generals sur les temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces planetaires.” Annales de Chemie et de Physique 27: 136-167)
1861: John Tyndall discovers that water vapor, CO2 & CH4 trap heat, O2 and N2 do not. (“On the absorption and radiation of heat by gases and vapours…” Philosophical Magazine 4 & 22: 169-194, 273-285)
1896: Svante Arrhenius estimates that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 will raise surface temperatures by 4oC. (“On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground.” Philosophical Magazine 41: 237-276)
slide info from John Holdren AAAS Climate50Kyla Dahlin - GEO827 - 20151110
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Mauna Loa Observatory
Tans & Keeling NOAA
Current concentration = 398.29 ppm(co2now.org)
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What are Climate Models?
• Gridded mathematical representations of the Earth System
• ~40 around the world
• HUGELY computationally expensive – run on supercomputers
• In the US there are 2 global climate models:• National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community
Earth System Model (CESM)
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab’s ESM
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What are Climate Models?
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What are Climate Models?
• Operate with varying degrees of complexity in terms of• Spatial scale
• Temporal scale (?)
• Parts of the Earth system included
• Processes included
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What do people do with ESMs?• Try to understand how the atmosphere works
• Try to understand how the oceans work
• Try to understand ocean-atmosphere interactions
• Try to understand how the land surface interacts with the atmosphere
• Try to understand land-ocean-atmosphere interactions
• Predict what the future planet will look like
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NCAR’s CESM
Hurrell et al 2013 (D2L)
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NCAR’s CESM
Alexander & Easterbrook 2011Kyla Dahlin - GEO827 - 20151110
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NCAR’s Community Land Model (CLM)
The land is a critical interface through which:
1. Climate and climate change impacts
humans and ecosystems
and
2. Humans and ecosystems can force global
environmental and climate change
slide from Dr. Peter Lawrence, NCARKyla Dahlin - GEO827 - 20151110
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1. Surface Energy Fluxes:- Solar Energy Fluxes (Albedo – Vegetation, Snow, Soils)- Long Wave Energy Fluxes (Surface Temp & Emissivity)- Latent Heat Fluxes (Transpiration, Evaporation)- Sensible Heat Fluxes (Surface Temp & Roughness)
2. Surface Hydrology:- Rain and Snow (Vegetation, Snow Pack, Runoff)- Transpiration, Evaporation, Snow melt, Sublimation- Soil Hydrology 10 Soil Layers in CLM (Richards Eqns)- Deep Aquifer recharge and drainage (Top Model)
3. Biogeochemistry (Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles):- Plant Photosynthesis and Respiration
6 CO2 + 6 H2O + light -> C6H12O6 + 6 O2
- Carbohydrates are allocated to Leaves, Roots, Wood- Leaves, roots and wood become litter, debris, soil C- Organic decomposition and fire remove carbon- Nitrogen is cycled impacting growth and decay
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
Land Surface in the Climate System
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AR
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Gridcell
GlacierLake
Landunit
Column
PFT
UrbanVegetated
Soil
Community Land Model (CLM 4.5) subgrid tiling structure
Crop
PFT1 PFT2 PFT3 PFT4 …
Unirrig Irrig Unirrig Irrig
Crop1 Crop1 Crop2 Crop2 …
L
G
UT,H,M
C1I V
PFT4
V
PFT3
V
PFT1
V
PFT2
C1U
C2UC2I
Roof
Sun Wall
Shade
Wall
Pervious
Impervious
TBD
MD
HD
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1. CLM Photosynthesis, Respiration and TranspirationTraits, Sunlight, CO2, Temperature, Water and Nitrogen
2. Carbon Allocation for Leaf, Stem and Root growth from Photosynthesis, Nitrogen availability and Phenology
3. Soil Hydrology, Soil and Litter Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles, and Heterotrophic Respiration
4. Land Cover Change, Wood Harvest, Mortality and Fire
5. Crop modeling with Planting, Fertilizer, Irrigation, Grain fill and Harvest
Slide 4 – Land Cover Change
CLM Vegetation Modeling Leaf to Landscape Processes
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AR
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What about the future?• Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs) = possible future conditions. (Meinshausen et al 2011 on D2L)
• Lots of decisions go in to these projections!
• We care about 2:• RCP8.5 = worst case (also “business
as usual”)• RCP4.5 = medium case (hopefully
we get some stuff figured out soon!)
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What is Benchmarking?
Kyla Dahlin - GEO827 - 20151110
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01912.x/pdf
biogeosciences.net/10/3313/2013/bg-10-3313-2013.pdfAlso see: biogeosciences.net/9/3857/2012/bg-9-3857-2012.pdf
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What is Benchmarking?
Kyla Dahlin - GEO827 - 20151110
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01912.x/pdf
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What is Benchmarking?
Kyla Dahlin - GEO827 - 20151110
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01912.x/pdf
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What is Benchmarking?
Kyla Dahlin - GEO827 - 20151110onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01912.x/pdf
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What is Benchmarking?Lots of decisions to make…
• What variable(s)?
• What time scale?
• Spatial? (map? Zonal means?)
• Point?
• One number or multiple?
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image credit: Forrest Copelandtalesfromthebigcountry.wordpress.com
How does the drought deciduous algorithm in CLM work?
What happens when we change (“fix”) it?
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Alexander & Easterbrook 2011(modified)
landCLM
land usechanges
emissions
solarradiation
climate data(CRU-NCEP)
Extremely Short Introduction to the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM)
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Phenology in CLM
• 15 non-crop plant functional types
• 3 phenology algorithms• evergreen
• cold deciduous
• stress (= drought) deciduous
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Where is CLM Stress Deciduous?
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Questions• How well does the stress deciduous phenology
algorithm work in CLM? [Leaf Area Index](compared to AVHRR-derived LAI3g for 1982-2010; Zhu et al 2013)
• Did we make it work better? (with relatively simple changes)
• What are the ecological consequences of this change?
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How does stress/droughtdecidousness work in CLM?(in warm, long-day regions*)
• Start growing leaves if...• 3rd soil layer is wet (soil water potential > -2 MPa) for 15 days
• Onset period fixed at 30 days
• Start dropping leaves if...• Onset period is complete
• 3rd soil layer is dry (soil water potential < -2 MPa) for 15 days
• Leaf drop period fixed at 15 days
• And stress deciduous plants can turn evergreen if conditions permit!
J JDNOSAJJMAMF
onset offsetdormant dormant
tonset
toffset
CSleaf
CLM4.5 Tech NoteCLM4.5 Tech Notefrom White et al 1997
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Correlations
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What about at single points?
% Drought Deciduous Cover
Brasilia
Southern Chad
Eastern Zambia
Darwin, AU
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What’s going on?
Darwin, AU
Brasilia Eastern Zambia
Southern Chad
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AVHRR LAI3g
CLM4.5BGC
Counting Peaks
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How does stress decidousnesscurrently work in CLM?(in warm, long-day regions)
• Start growing leaves if...• 3rd soil layer is wet (soil water potential > -2 MPa) for 15 days
• It RAINS! (20 mm in the past 10 days)
• Onset period fixed at 30 days
• Start dropping leaves if...• Onset period is complete
• 3rd soil layer is dry (soil water potential < -2 MPa) for 15 days
• Leaf drop period fixed at 15 days
• And stress deciduous plants can turn evergreen if conditions permit!
J JDNOSAJJMAMF
onset offsetdormant dormant
tonset
toffset
CSleaf
CLM4.5 Tech NoteCLM4.5 Tech Notefrom White et al 1997
Kyla Dahlin - GEO827 - 20151110
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What’s going on?
Darwin, AU
Brasilia Eastern Zambia
Southern Chad
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Correlations
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What about fire?
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What about fire?
Li, Levis & Ward 2013
GFED3CLM4CN~2o resolution*Qian forcing1997-2004
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New
R = 0.44(drought deciduous
only R = 0.35)
R = 0.33(drought deciduous
only R = 0.23)
GFED4CLM4.5BGC~1o resolutionCRU-NCEP forcing1996-2010
Annual burned area fraction (% yr-1)
Giglio, Randerson, & van der Werf 2013
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Difference Maps
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1 year of Fire & Veg CarbonBrasilia
Darwin, AUEastern Zambia
Southern Chad
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Conclusions
• Delaying budburst until some rain has fallen gives better agreement with the satellite-derived LAI data, both for magnitude and seasonal cycle in savanna regions.
• But this change degrades our ability to predict fire patterns. But not by much.
• More implications? Soil C, climate feedbacks, etc.
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So… Species Distribution Modeling?• Where are species now?
• Where are they going?
• What does that mean for the other organisms that rely on them?
• Will it impact the climate?
• Will it impact people?
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Negative Feedback (good!)
Plant wants to grow
Plant opens stomata to take in CO2
Plant starts to run out of
water
Plant closes stomata & conserves
energy
Water accumulates
in soil
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Positive Feedback (not good!)Increasing
CO2 in atmosphere
causes warming
Permafrost begins to melt
Melting permafrost gives more
food to microbes
Microbes increase and respire more
More microbial
respiration = more CO2…
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Types of SDMs (see Elith & Leathwick 2009)• Climate Envelope Modeling (just climate)
• Habitat modeling (abiotic factors)
• Niche modeling (abiotic + biotic)
• ‘Gap’ models (every tree)
• MaxEnt (fancy statisics)
• Ecosystem Demographics (more fancy statistics)
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So… what are we doing for the lab?• Climate Envelope Modeling!
• Issues and Caveats…
• Where is everything?• Dropbox
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Step 1: Pick a Rare Plant in MI
Example: Kitten tails (Besseya bullii)
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Step 2: Map its locations
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Step 3: Calculate its climatic niche
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Step 4: Estimate its current climatic range
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Step 5: Estimate its future climatic range under RCP4.5
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Step 6: Estimate its future climatic range under RCP8.5
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Thanks!Questions?
[shameless plug for GEO837]
[email protected]/~kdahlin
@bristleweed
Kyla Dahlin - GEO827 - 20151110