geoengineering lecture

8/10/2019 Geoengineering Lecture

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Tobias GerkenThe Pennsylvania State University

[email protected]

Geoengineering


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CLIMATE CHANGE(IN A NUTSHELL)


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Global Energy Budget

Greenhouse Effect

After: Kiehl & Trenberth, 1997


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Global Temperatures (I)

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Mann et al., 1999The Hockey Stick


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Global Temperatures (II)

Columbia University


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Anthropogenic Climate Change Global temperatures are

rising. The dominating mechanism

is enhanced green houseeffect.

What are the consequences?

What should we do about it?

Fact

Fact

Research

Debate


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Whose fault is it?

CO2 Emissions by Country (2011)

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency


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Whose fault is it?

Total GHG Emissions by Country (2011)



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Whose fault is it?

CO2 Emissions per person (2011)



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Whose fault is it?

Historical Emissions (1850-2007)



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Dealing with climate change

Do Nothing Adapt Mitigate

(Prevent)

(Geo-engineering)

Xkcd.com


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We are a force of nature (?!)

Paul Crutzen:The Anthropocene

Rockstrm, et al. (2009):Planetary Boundaries []

Ecology and Society 14: p 33-


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Geoengineering methodsSolar Radiation Management

After: Kiehl & Trenberth, 1997

CO2 removal


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Geoengineering methods Your turn (In groups):1. How does the method work?2. What are the advantages?

3. What are the disadvantages/dangers?

4. How will it affect society?

5. Would you recommend it?Write down the answers to turn in.You will present your answers(one minute presentation)

Higgins, 2014


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Key issues to think about

Economics: How much will it cost? Geopolitics: How do we regulate it?

Ecosystems: How will nature react? Ethics: Should we do it? Risks: What can go wrong? Science: What do we know?

Carbon Capture and Storagewww.fastcompany.com


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Economics

The Stern Report (2007): Climate changemitigation will cost $ 1 trillion per year(1-2% of world GDP)

$ 100 per ton of carbon We have little knowledge what

geoengineering will cost

Cloud brightening.Credit: McNeill


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Geopolitics

Geoengineering by definition is global! There will/ might be winners and losers?

Who will pay? Who decides what

to do?

Do we need a globalclimate police?

Precipitation change due to sulphateaerosol geoengineering, Rasch et al 2008


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Ethics/ Environment

How much do we need to know before we cando geoengineering?

Is it morally wrong? Are some options better than

others? Ecosystems will be disrupted. Do we care?

An algal bloom,wikimedia commons


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Risks

What happens if technologies fail? Uncertainty

Unintended consequences Get out of jail free card/ magic bullet? We cannot do this forever bridge

technology Geopolitical consequences: Less precipitation

in China, USA, Russia

Credit: loadtr.com


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A first evaluation

The Royal Society, 2009


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Science Royal Society Report, 2009 The American Meteorological Society recommends:1. Enhanced research on the scientific and technological potential

for geoengineering the climate system, including research on

intended and unintended environmental responses.2. Coordinated study of historical, ethical, legal, and socialimplications of geoengineering that integrates international,interdisciplinary, and intergenerational issues and perspectivesand includes lessons from past efforts to modify weather andclimate.

3. Development and analysis of policy options to promotetransparency and international cooperation in exploringgeoengineering options along with restrictions on recklessefforts to manipulate the climate system.

geoengineering lecture

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