geography of wildfires across the west€¦ · geography of wildfires across the west keith t....
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Geography of Wildfires Across the WestKeith T. Weber1, GISP and PI NASA RECOVER
Rituraj Yadev1, Jonah Davis1, Kindra Blair1, John Schnase2, Mark Carroll2, Roger Gill2
[email protected] Idaho State University- GIS TReC2- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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What is RECOVER?• Post-wildfire Decision Support System (DSS)
– Rapid assembly of site-specific data– Delivered in customized GIS analysis environment– Wildfire focus
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Data Architecture
• RECOVER– Serves the Western US– Used on over 100 wildfires
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GIS Layers• By default each RECOVER DSS
contains…– 26 base layers automatically clipped to
fire AOI– One of those layers is the Historic Fires
polygon feature class
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Historic Fires Database• Contains all documented wildfires (1950-2017)1
• Assembled from authoritative sources– USGS GeoMac– NIFC– BLM– USFS– State Agencies (e.g., CalFire)
1- This database is not considered comprehensive but is as complete as possible
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Overview
• Since 1950
–11% of Western US lands has experienced a wildfire
–89% has no documented record of a wildfire (1.00 – 0.11)
–3% has experienced a burn-on-burn event
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Public Land Bias?
• 40,260 wildfire polygons• Potential bias of including fires
on public land while omitting fires on private land– Examine the proportion of private
land/public land (availability)– Relative to the proportion of fires
(observed)
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Let’s Investigate using GIS
• Public/Private lands • Overlaid with Historic Fires
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Tabular/Statistical
• Public/Private lands– 33% of the West is private land– 29% private land susceptible to
wildfire– 23% BLM– 19% USFS– Balance other public lands
• Historic Fire occurrence– 16% on private land– 25% BLM– 35% USFS– Balance other public lands
There appears to be no bias toward public land fires in this database; χ²(1,1) P = 0.09
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WILDFIRES ACROSS TIMEPART ONE:
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Wildfires Across Time
R² = 0.7424
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Fire
Fre
quen
cy
Year
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Wildfires Across Time (cont’d)
0
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Acre
s Bur
ned
Per F
ire
Year
Mean Median
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More Fires and More Large Fires
• Median fire size peaked in the decade of the mid-80’s to mid-90’s
• Mean (avg.) fire size has not yet peaked, but is generally increasing
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Mega-Fires• Fires burning > 100,000 acres (156 mi2)
y = 0.1419x - 0.9344R² = 0.3801
-2
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Freq
uenc
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Fire Year
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Wildfires in the New Millennia
• 61% of the total area burned since 1950occurred in the new millennia (2000-2017)
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WILDFIRES ACROSS SPACEPART TWO:
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Historic Fires
• Recall 40,000+ documented wildfires contained in the Historic Fires GDB
• Over 100 Million acres
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Some Areas Burn Frequently• 3% of the West has experienced
burn-on-burn effects• Some areas have experienced
11 fires since 1950– On average, a fire every 7 years
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Why?
• Why are some areas burning often?• What areas are burning?
– Let’s analyze the landscape (vegetation/land cover)
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USGS Landfire Program• BPS- Bio-Physical Setting
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Spatial Analysis Across the West
• Overlay fire polygons on BPS• Zonal Statistics as Table
– Shrub land + Grassland = 56% (52%, after 2000)
– BUT, notice the recent shift toward coniferous forest fires
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Here in Idaho
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Shrub land & Grasslands…
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Conifers…
Modified from http://criticalzone.org/catalina-jemez/infrastructure/field-areas-catalina-jemez/
• What type of coniferous forests?– Juniper?– Pine?– Spruce-fir?
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Across the West…
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Reality Test• “Ponderosa Pine” in Landfire BPS
– Does this agree with your experience?
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Where to From Here?
• Continue analysis– Compare trends between 1950-1999 and 2000-2017
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Take Home Message• Over time:
– ↑ Wildfire frequency– ↑ Area burned– ↑ Coniferous forest fires
• 90% of the West has not burned since 1950– Burn-on-burn relatively common
• Expect, plan, and manage for wildfires
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Questions?
RECOVER is a NASA Applied Sciences sponsored project. K. T. Weber (PI), J. Schnase (Co-PI) and M. Carroll (Co-PI), Goddard Space Flight Center
Visit http://giscenter.isu.edu/research/Techpg/nasa_RECOVER/[email protected]