geopolitics

D E F E N C E n D I P L O M A C Y n S E C U R I T Y

VOL III, ISSUE II, JULY 2012 n `100

GIVEN THE MONEY AND TIME IT HAS CONSUMED, TEJAS HAS TO PROVE THE CRITICS WRONG

geopoliticsCHALLENGES BEFORE THE NEW ARMY CHIEF

SOUR

ATLASELEKTRONIK

IN INDIA

HOW NOT TO GATHER

INTELLIGENCE

DREAM?

Dealingwith the

United States

(4)July 2012www.geopolitics.in

COVERSTORY (P44)

Although it has taken thecountry 30 years to build, theLight Combat Aircraftprogramme has bestowedthe country with vastaircraft-building know-how.

THE TEJASSAGA

CHALLENGES GALORE

ASSESSMENT (P12 )

The new Army Chief, General Bikram Singh, will have

to grapple with dual problem of restoring morale and

putting an end to critical deficiencies.

SPECIAL FEATURE (P34)

OPTIMISM GALORE A look at the key prospects and opportu-nities at the Farnborough InternationalAir Show 2012

Atlas Industries, specialists in a widearray of underwater technologies, lookto further their relationship with theIndian Navy.

We analyse the gaping holes in the country’s intelligence apparatus.

INTERNAL SECURITY (P54)CHINKS IN THE ARMOUR

DEF BIZ (P39)

SUBMARINE EXPERTS

INORDINATE DELAY

PERSPECTIVE (P16)

The government must speed up the process of establish-

ing a National Defence University in order to promote

critical thinking among our senior service officers.

MOD

DRDO

ARMY

PRO

(5)www.geopolitics.in July 2012

STEPPING UP

FOCUS (P58)

The involvement of the private sectoris critical for the improvement of theinternal security conditions in thecountry in the long term.

EXTENDING TACTI-CAL REACH (P19)The DRDO is planning anupgrade of the Pinaka multi-ple barrel rocket launcher toimprove range.

IN THE CROSSHAIRS(P28)The recent RFI for new sniperrifles takes the Army closertowards modernising itsinfantry.

PROVIDING OVERWATCH (P30)Armed with unique capabili-ties, UAVs have becomeessential assets for thearmed forces.

PERSIAN CONUNDRUM (P72)Iran’s nuclear status is bewil-dering the world and the inter-national community is strug-gling to contain the crisis.

THE SHARED INTERESTS AND

CONVERGENCE OF VIEWS BETWEEN

INDIA AND THE US OVER A RANGE

OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL ISSUES

PROVIDE THE FOUNDATION FOR A

LASTING RELATIONSHIP.

EXPANDING TIES DIPLOMACY (65)

D E F E N C E � D I P L O M A C Y � S E C U R I T Y

VOL III, ISSUE II, JULY 2012 � `100

GIVEN THE MONEY AND TIME IT HAS CONSUMED, TEJAS HAS TO PROVE THE CRITICS WRONG

geopoliticsCHALLENGES BEFORE THE NEW ARMY CHIEF

SOUR

ATLASELEKTRONIK

IN INDIA

HOW NOT TO GATHER

INTELLIGENCE

DREAM?

Dealingwith the

United States

Cover Design:Ruchi Sinha

The total number of pagesin this issue is 80 with cover

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US D

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LICKR

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G E O P O L I T I C S

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gGEOPO L I T I C S

gLETTERS


It was not much of asurprise to read an

ex-cavalry officerwriting positivecomments aboutthe Arjun Tank (TheArjun Saga, June2012). We haveheard a lot about

the superior performance of the Arjuncompared to the T-90 tanks in recenttimes. The Arjun MKII, which isundergoing field trials, seems to havethe potential to become a precursor tothe Future Main Battle Tank.

The author does inform us about theMKII but doesn’t provide the details ofthis version. The article covers thehistory of the development of the tank ingreat detail but it would have been betterif there had been more informationabout the new version. The articleshould have given more informationabout the ongoing Arjun MKII trials inRajasthan. Having said that, I also wouldlike to say that the article should haveexplained why, in spite of new improve-ments, the Army is reluctant to purchasemore tanks. One argument that goesagainst the Arjun is that it is incomp-atible with the tank logistics systems ofthe Indian Army. Details about theseissues would have made the article morebalanced. Finally, I feel the knowledge ofphilosophy of operation of the Indianmechanised forces is important to knowwhy certain tanks are preferred overothers. Since the author is a cavalryofficer, no one better than him couldhave done that. Although the articlecovers the philosophy of other mainbattle tanks like the Abrams, Merkavaand T-90, it does not go into the details.Overall, however, the article will educatea large number of enthusiasts like me.

RegardsSangharsh Patel

Gujarat

The SpecialFeature (Towards

Credible Deterrence,June 2012) was aninteresting read. Iwas amazed to readabout the details ofthe Chinese missilesystem. But I have

my objection on a basic principle.There is so much hidden and

undisclosed information on the issuethat are at the core of nuclear warfareand deterrence is hidden from public.Therefore, all the analysis is based oninformation available in the publicdomain. I feel the article suggests Indiais not well prepared for nucleardeterrence.

The basic perception of the authoris that nuclear silos can be attacked bythe enemy and, therefore, nuclearmissiles should be mobile. Fair enough,but once the nuclear missiles come outin the open, satellites will be able tocatch them. In silos, the nuclearsignature is at a minimum and thevulnerability is also little — unless, ofcourse, the exact location of the silo isknown. Every nation, including Indiadisperses its nuclear weapons, as yourarticle suggests. But there are manyhidden truths, which are essential toanalyse and understand the issue.

Regards

Prakriti AgasheMumbai

The cover of yourJune issue was

eye-catching, tosay the least. Theissue carried anumber ofinterestingarticles. Theinterview of

DCNS India head(“We have vastexperience inbuildingsubmarines forIndia, pg 34)gave much,required insightinto the

ongoing Scorpene submarineprogramme. It was pleasant to readabout Rosoboron Terra (“We have hadfull support from the Army and theMinistry, pg-40) in Peter Punj’sinterview. It is good that we aremoving towards indigenisation withIndian firms making inroads into themaintenance and services sector. It isa good omen.

As far as I can tell, Geopolitics isthe only magazine with so manyregular features among defencemagazines in the country. The latestfeature, BizIntel, is going to set a newtrend. I am sure others will try tofollow the trend. The Pipavav-MDLdeal is an eye-opener. It’s a seriousmatter if the company was in touchwith MDL for investment seven yearsago. There is so much insider-tradinggoing on in the MoD. The blacklistingstory proves that the MoD, that talksof transparency, is highly opaque andcan jeopardise Indian security in thename of honesty. Keep the good workgoing. We hope to see some morenew features.

Regards

P K AroraNew Delhi

All correspondence may be addressedto: Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-110013. OR mail to [email protected].

LETTERS TO EDITOR

D E F E N C E � D I P L O M A C Y � S E C U R I T Y

VOL III, ISSUE I, JUNE 2012 � `100

CONCEIVED IN 1972 AND YET TO FACE A REAL ENEMY, ARJUN HAS

BATTLED MANY A NAY-SAYER AT HOME IN ITS JOURNEY

geopoliticsPLA AND INDIAN AIR BASES IN THE NORTH-EAST

SURVIVOR THE

India

fails in the

Maldives

THE NCTCIMBROGLIO

ELUSIVEAIR-DEFENCE

GUNS

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geo june cover11_GEOPOLITIC COVER2.qxd 5/26/2012 3:43 PM Page 1

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www.geopolitics.in July 2012

There is no doubt that men in uniform (andwithout) are creating ripples by writingabout the armed forces. Last month it wasR K Anand’s whiplash against the estab-lishment and this month the riposte in

favour of the establishment and the institutionalstrength of the system came from Joginder JaswantSingh. In tennis parlance, it would be called a cross-court backhand return! Sad as it may sound, thefact of the matter is that General JJ Singh, firstmade waves as the first Sikh to hold the top post.It should have gone to another brilliant Sikh gen-eral (Harbaksh Singh) long back. But that didn’thappen and when JJ became the chief, there wasnaturally elation in Punjab that a pind da mundawas now the head of the forces. There is nothingcommunal or parochial in this, it is simply a cele-bration of a unique event (just as much as many inthe Alkali Dal too celebrated when ManmohanSingh became Prime Minister).

Now the Governor of Arunachal Pradesh,the former chief of army staff, was at hiscrackling best at his book launch (readreview elsewhere in this issue). He ad- libbedwith his wife, cracked jokes and evenasked the Chief Minister to standup so that people could see him.

But he better be careful. Hesaid his wife had eyes that were‘chinki’. Whatever that means. But ifhe was alluding to the North East where hehappens to be a Governor now, he could bein trouble. For those who are not aware ofthe recent development, the Ministry ofHome Affairs has created a law to pre-vent racial atrocities against North East-ern people. And under the gamut of it,falls the naming of someone as ‘chin-ki’ as well.

No surprise the media ignoredthe ‘closed to the media’ diktatfrom Harper Collins and turnedup in full force. But they gottheir instructions fromapparently the Generalwho forgot all about it andspoke plenty to the mediapost the launch.

Soldier-turned-Governor JJ does a

backhand return

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(9)July 2012

What happened on Siachen?

China seminar

That’s not English

The faujis are getting clever. They have now learntthat that the art of getting the political and

bureaucratic masters to fall in line requires not just largedoses of discipline but a dash of subterfuge as well! In asurprising move, India reiterated its old stand onSiachen during the visit of the Defence secretary ShashiKant Sharma to Pakistan. With the Pakistan Army Chiefmaking conciliatory noises, the fear was that maybeIndia goes soft at the political level. There was enoughmedia hype on the possibility. To prevent any suchpossibility, the army approached the Prime Minister’sOffice (PMO) with a clear and unambiguous perspectiveon Siachen. In the meantime, they also approached theother CCS members and explained the position. The restwas done by aggressive writing of the ex-officers innewspapers. Good fellas, the army has learned the waysto manipulate the fractured polity.

Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) is celebrating itsGolden jubilee with plenty of razzmatazz and

pomp. And why not? A golden Jubilee is an occasion tocelebrate, reflect and reenergise oneself for the journeyahead. As part of this exercise, the ITBP is organising aseries of events to showcase its capability. The force hasmade serious attempts to show its pan-nationalcharacter. In line with this, it also wanted to add someintellectual gloss to the exercise. A seminar on China itthought would be a good idea. It was a maiden attemptby the ITBP to showcase its importance and claim someground in the strategic space. Indian central policeorganisations have been witnessing the dilution of theirrole and importance. They, in recent times, have beentrying to regain the lost importance. The China seminarwas touted as a key event and great plans were madeand all the leading strategic minds were invited to gracethe occasion. But under the austerity measures the two-day seminar was reduced to one day and subsequentlycancelled citing administrative issues. When will we seethe intellectual upliftment of our paramilitary forces?No one knows why and who prompted the cancellation.Only the babus will know and they are not talking.

You have interpreters and you have interpreters, buthow can you have an interpreter when both are

speaking the same language. Well, that's the off-the-recordfeedback from the Americans who find the peculiar brandof Malayali English that the Raksha Mantri speaks hard todecipher. No offence meant, but the fact of the matter isthat both Bengalis and Malayalis (of course, there areexceptions) carry the fragrance of their matri basha acrossthe spectrum to English. That's why you have a PranabMukherjee addressing Sonia as 'Shoniya'. Now, don't askus about St Anthony. He hardly utters a word, so wewouldn’t know first-hand!

If track record is anything to go by, then BEML ChiefVRS Natarajan has plenty to be optimistic about. The

last time a Public Sector Unit (PSU) CEO was suspendedhappened when the Air India Chairman and ManagingDirector Michael Mascarenhas was suspended and a CBIcase slapped on him. But Michael had formidable backersin Delhi including the then Principal Secretary to thePrime Minister Brajesh Mishra. The case was fast tracked(ever heard of a CBI case being put in the fast forwardmode?), Michael was absolved and just days before hisdate of superannuation he was reinstated so that he couldgo with his head held high and in good grace. Michaeldecided that he had had enough of aviation and neverreturned to the business. These days he is the head of themultinational security company, Brinks Arya. ButNatarajan’s case is different. Whereas Michael was smoothand suave and had a high number of friends andbenefactors in the right places, the disgraced BEML chief— who had great dreams of making his firm a billiondollar enterprise-was a literal battering ram. In hisdecade-long stint at the top, whip-lashed everyone elseinto submission.

Sometimes when you are in power you fail to noticethe straws in the wind. The first indication of acutenegativity against him was when he was forced towithdraw the legal notice to the former chief. And thenthe icing on the cake was his sudden suspension. If peopleare to be believed, after the news of him being suspendedby the ministry reached him, he called up the powers-that-be to confirm the news. After publication of a seriesof adversial news reports, it seems that he has lost faith inthe media and wanted to confirm the bad newspersonally. Such is life.

Natrajan calls

ggPANORAMAG E O P O L I T I C S

There’s a quiet spectre spread-ing across the Middle East.Unseen and unheard of untilnow, it is spreading its tenta-cles across computer networks

across the region. Heeding its mysteri-ous masters’ bidding, the cyberneticcreature is striking without warning. Itstarget seems to the infrastructure ofIran, specifically the computers thatcontrol the country’s nuclear weaponsprogramme. More of a cybernetic entitythan a traditional computer virus, it hasbewildered security experts across theworld with its sophistication andprowess. Dubbed ‘Flame’ by the peoplewho ‘discovered it in the wild’, it has beencalled one of the most complicatedviruses ever found.

GRAP

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Kaspersky Lab is calling it “one of themost complex threats ever discovered”.With unprecedented data-snatchingcapabilities, it has been described as anespionage toolkit that has been infectingtargeted systems for at least two years.So sophisticated and ground breaking isthe new malware that it dwarfs Stuxnet,the virus that wreaked havoc with Iran’snuclear programme, in size. It is allegedto be part of a well-coordinated, ongoing,state-run cyber espionage operation.

Alexander Gostev, Chief SecurityExpert at Kaspersky Lab said:

“One of the most alarming facts isthat the Flame cyberattack campaign iscurrently in its active phase, and itsoperator is consistently surveillinginfected systems, collecting informationand targeting new systems to accom-plish its unknown goals.”

NOVEL CREATURE

It has been described as amultitasking mole

It can wipe data off harddrives

Eavesdrop by activating audiosystems to listen in on Skypecalls or office chatter

Take screenshots

Log keystrokes

Steal data from Bluetooth-enabled mobile phones

SILENT ANDDEADLY

According to findings, themalware has been activesince March 2010, butevaded discovery because

of its “extreme complexity” and sinceonly selected computers are beingtargeted.

In an effort to contain the virus,Iran resorted to severing Internet linksto its Oil Ministry — the hub for near-ly all the country’s crude exports.

KEY FUNCTION

Flame’s key function“appears to be cyber espi-onage, by stealing infor-mation from infected

machines” and transferring it toservers across the world.

ACCIDENTAL DISCOVERY

The malware was foundduring an inquiry drivenby the InternationalTe l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n

Union (ITU), the United Nations’ spe-cialised agency for information andcommunication technologies. TheITU kicked off research after a stringof incidents with another destructivemalware programme codenamedWiper, which removed data on anumber of computers in the WesternAsia region. It was while investigatingthese incidents that Kaspersky Laband ITU specialists came across thenew type of malware.

GEOGRAPHICALSPREAD

Flame has been detected inthe Palestinian territories,Sudan, Syria, Lebanon, Sau-di Arabia and Egypt.Also

found in Israel, Tel Aviv believes thevirus could be traced to the US orother Western nations.

MODULAR DESIGN

Flame consists of multi-ple modules — the sec-tion actually used toinfect a machine is rela-

tively small. After installation, thevirus downloads further modules ofits own code, depending on theexplicit missions its makers want itto carry out. This makes the virusharder to follow and observe thevirus, as different infected comput-ers have diverse permutation ofmodules.

CYBER ARSENAL

According to experts,Flame could be part of a project created by thesame state-sponsored

team that was behind Stuxnet andthe related malware, DuQu.

When asked about Flame, IsraeliVice Premier Moshe Yaalon did littleto deflect speculation that it was theJewish State’s handiwork: “Whoeversees the Iranian threat as a significantthreat is likely to take various steps, in-cluding these, to hobble it. Israel isblessed with high technology, and weboast tools that open all sorts of op-portunities for us.”

REPRODUCESFlame has the capabilityto reproduce over a localnetwork by means of sev-eral methods, including

the same printer susceptibility andUSB infection method used byStuxnet.

‘FLAMED’

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(12)www.geopolitics.in

GENERAL BIKRAM Singh hastaken over the reins of theIndian Army at a time whenthis great army — oftenreferred to as the ‘last man

standing’ in a country riven by corrup-tion, land and corporate scams, politicalexpediency and much else — is passingthrough a rough patch in its history. Thehigher leadership of the Army has beenfacing criticism for putting ‘self’ before‘service’, contrary to the Chetwood mot-to that is ingrained into an officer’s psy-che from his training days at the IndianMilitary Academy (IMA), Dehradun:“The safety, honour and welfare of yourcountry come first, always and everytime. The honour, welfare and comfortof the men you command come next.Your own ease, comfort and safety comelast, always and every time.” (From aspeech delivered by Field Marshal SirPhilip W Chetwood during the inaugura-tion of IMA in 1932.)

When General V K Singh became theChief of the Army Staff (COAS) two yearsago, there were huge expectations thathe would restore the moral health of theArmy as he came in with the reputation

July 2012

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As the country now has a new Chief of the Army, urgent action is needed to restore moralhealth and make up critical deficiencies, says GURMEET KANWAL

CHALLENGES BEFORE

THE ARMY

TOUGH ASSIGNMENT: General BikramSingh has taken over the reins of the IndianArmy as it passes through a rough patch inits history

July 2012

of an officer with the highest integrity.However, his tenure as COAS was marredby his own fight against the governmenton the issue of his date of birth and vari-ous other unseemly controversies thathave not done the reputation of theArmy any service as a first-class fightingforce. These controversies are too wellknown and too recent to bear recount-ing. While individually, none of themhave amounted to much, collectivelythese have severely dented the image ofthe Army in the eyes of the public thathas constantly supported the Army, andeven internationally.

A dispassionate SWOT (strengths,weaknesses, opportunities, threats)analysis reveals that up to the level ofcombat units, i.e. infantry battalions,armoured and artillery regiments andother arms and services, the Army con-tinues to remain a force to reckon with.The combat-level Army is a cohesivefighting force and operationally its ethosis marked by professional excellence.However, a number of officers compris-ing the Army’s leadership ranks fromBrigadier onwards appear to have losttheir moral compass and have strayed intheir approach to moral uprightness.These officers are increasingly takingchances with ventures that are shadyand downright wrong (e.g. land andhousing scams), hoping that they will getaway with it without being discovered.Perhaps, they have fallen victim to theills that plague civil society, whichspawns them.

Some of the senior officers haveapparently forgotten the lines in theNational Defence Academy (NDA),Khadakwasla, prayer that exhorts offi-cers to ‘choose the harder right insteadof the easier wrong’. This is a seriousdevelopment with grave long-term con-sequences for the Army’s operationalethos. It needs to be immediately arrest-ed and then corrected. The armed forceshave always held their officers to highermoral standards than the civil societythat they come from, and it is for thisreason that they have remained untaint-ed by the many ills that have plagued thenation for several decades. It is to behoped that General Bikram Singh willimmediately initiate remedial measuresto arrest and correct the presentdownslide in the moral standards of theArmy’s higher ranks. This issue meritshis highest consideration in the monthsahead.

Preparedness for warOf course, the new COAS also has tosimultaneously take stock of the Army’spreparedness for war and internal secu-rity challenges. Previous Army ChiefGeneral V K Singh’s leaked letter to thePrime Minister and the CAG’s recentreport have revealed that the state ofdefence preparedness is a cause for seri-ous concern. The Chief’s letter hasbrought into the public domain whathas been known for long to Army officersin service and those who have retiredfrom service.

The leakage of an ultra-sensitive topsecret letter will certainly have anadverse impact on national security, as ithas given undue advantage to India’smilitary adversaries by publicly disclos-ing sensitive information about the defi-ciencies in weapon systems, ammuni-tion and equipment in service in theArmy. However, now that these facts are

in the public domain, surely these willhelp focus the nation’s attention on theneed to speedily make up the shortagesand give the Army the wherewithal thatit needs to fight and win future wars.General V K Singh was not the first COASto have apprised the PM about the poorstate of preparedness; his predecessorshad done so as well. General K M Cariap-pa had gone to Pandit Nehru to ask foradditional funds for military modernisa-tion and was reported to have been told,“India does not need an army; it needs apolice force.” Well, the ignominy of 1962followed.

The late General Bipin Joshi had writ-ten to PM Narasimha Rao to urge him tohelp the Army to make up the long-standing large-scale shortage of ammu-nition. While the shortage was worthover `10,000 crore, Army HQ had report-edly identified a “bottom line” figurewithout which the COAS said the Army

would remain unprepared for war. Perhaps the country’s precarious finan-cial condition in the early-1990s did notallow PM Narasimha Rao to provide thenecessary funds to immediately makeup the shortage. A few years later theKargil conflict took place and the wholenation heard the COAS General V PMalik making the chilling statement onnational TV, “We will fight with what wehave.”

It is well known that India had toscramble to import 50,000 rounds of155mm ammunition for its Bofors guns,besides other weapons and equipment.Stocks of tank ammunition and that forother artillery and air defence guns werealso low and it was just as well that thefighting remained limited to the Kargilsector and did not spill over to the rest ofthe LoC or the plains.

Approximately 250,000 rounds ofartillery ammunition were fired in that50-day war. The government has autho-rised the stocking of sufficient ammuni-tion to fight a large-scale war for 50 to 60days. This is known as the ‘war reserve’.As the Army Chief’s letter and the CAGreport bring out, not enough new stockswere apparently procured to make upeven the ammunition expended duringthe Kargil conflict. Stocks of several criti-cal types of ammunition for tanks andartillery guns, have fallen to as low asless than 10 days war reserves. Also,ammunition has a shelf life of about 12to 15 years, at the end of which it is nolonger usable for combat but can still beused for training. Hence, the shortagescontinue to increase every year if actionis not taken to constantly make up thedeficiency.

The other major issue highlighted inthe letter written by the COAS pertains tothe continuation in service of obsoles-cent weapons and equipment and thestagnation in the process of militarymodernisation aimed at upgrading theArmy’s war-fighting capabilities to pre-pare it to fight and win on the battlefieldsof the 21st century. While the COAS haspointed out several operational deficien-cies, the most critical ones include thecomplete lack of artillery modernisationsince the Bofors 155mm howitzer waspurchased in the mid-1980s, “night blind-ness” of the Army’s infantry battalionsand mechanised forces, and the fact thatthe air defence guns and missile systemsare 97 per cent obsolescent. The inade-quacy of the intelligence, surveillance

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IT IS HOPED THAT GENERALBIKRAM SINGHWILL INITIATE

MEASURES TOARREST THEDOWNSLIDE

and reconnaissance systems, with anadverse impact on command and controlduring war, adds to the Army’s difficulties.

Lack of defence planning This sorry state of affairs has come aboutbecause of the flawed defence planningand defence acquisition processes inexistence, a grossly inadequate defencebudget and the inability to fully spendeven the meagre funds that are allotted.Funds are surrendered quite often due tobureaucratic red tape — civilian as wellas military, scams in defence procure-ment and the frequent blacklisting ofdefence firms accused of adopting unfairmeans to win contracts.

Long-term defence planning is thecharter of the apex body of the NationalSecurity Council, which meets veryrarely due to the preoccupation of thePM and other members of the CabinetCommittee on Security (CCS) with day-to-day crisis management. As such, the15-year Long-term Integrated Perspec-tive Plan (LTIPP) and five-year DefencePlan do not receive the attention thatthese merit.

The 11th Defence Plan, which termi-nated on March 31, 2012, was not formal-ly approved by the government and,hence, did not receive committed budget-ary support that would have enabled thethree Services to plan their acquisitions of

weapons and equipment systematically,rather than being left to the vagaries ofannual defence budgets.

Consequent to the leakage of theChief’s letter and the major uproar inParliament that resulted, the DefenceMinister is reported to have approvedthe 12th Defence Plan 2012-17 and theLTIPP 2012-27 in early-April 2012. Whilethis is undoubtedly commendable, itremains to be seen whether the FinanceMinistry and, subsequently, the CCS willalso show the same alacrity in accordingthe financial approvals necessary to givepractical effect to these plans.

The defence budget has dipped below2 per cent of the country’s GDP, despitethe fact that the Service Chiefs and Par-liament’s Standing Committee onDefence have repeatedly recommendedthat it should be raised to at least 3 percent of the GDP if India is to build thedefence capabilities that it will need toface the emerging threats and challengesand discharge its growing responsibili-ties as a regional power in Southern Asia.In real terms, the increase in the budgetfor 2012-13 from `1,64,415 crore in 2011-12 to `1,93,007 crore ($ 38.6 billion) isbarely adequate to allow for inflation,which is ruling at about 7.5 to 8.0 percent, and the consequent increase in payand allowances. The rupee’s recent slideagainst the US dollar to below `55 to a

dollar has further eroded its purchasingpower. Annual inflation in the interna-tional prices of weapons, ammunitionand defence equipment is generallybetween 12 and 15 per cent. Each year’sdelay in the procurement of operational-ly critical items substantially increasesthe burden on the exchequer.

Giving his reaction to the FinanceMinister’s budget speech, Defence Min-ister A K Antony said, “By and large weare very happy about the budget becauseapart from the allocation, the FinanceMinister has said that if the defenceneeds more money, there won’t be anyproblem.” However, the armed forces areunlikely to be satisfied as their plans formodernisation have been stymied yearafter year by the lack of committedbudgetary support. The ongoing RMA(revolution in military affairs) haspassed the Indian Army by. It is still afirst-rate fighting force, but one that isequipped mostly with obsolescentweapons and equipment.

The lack of progress in the replace-ment of the Army’s obsolescent weaponsand equipment and its qualitative mod-ernisation to meet future threats andchallenges is worrisome as the Armycontinues to maintain large-scaledeployments on border managementand internal security duties. It needs toupgrade its rudimentary C4I2SR systemand graduate quickly to network centric-ity to optimise the use of its combatpotential. While the mechanised forcesin the plains are still partly night blind,the capability to launch offensive opera-tions in the mountains continues toremain inadequate to deter conflict. Thecapability to launch precision strikesfrom ground and air-delivered firepower,which will pave the way for the infantryto win future battles, is much short ofthe volumes that will be required. TheMoD must immediately ask for addition-al funds to kickstart the Army’s stalledmodernisation process.

While the new COAS has his work cutout for him, the government will do wellto appoint a National Security Commis-sion to take stock of the lack of pre-paredness of the country’s armed forcesand to make pragmatic recommenda-tions to redress the visible inadequaciesthat might lead to yet another militarydebacle.

(The author is a Delhi-based defence analyst)

July 2012www.geopolitics.inwww.geopolitics.in

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gASSESSMENT

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Depletion of tank, artillery ammunition Stagnation in military modernisationprocessContinuation in service of obsolescentweapons and equipmentLack of artillery modernisation sinceBofors gun was purchased in mid-1980s“Night blindness” of the army’s infantrybattalions and mechanised forcesObsolescence of 97 per cent of airdefence guns and missile systems Inadequacy of intelligence, surveillanceand reconnaissance systems

The Indian Army faces a number of challenges at present, including:

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O King, thanks to the Mauryan Armystanding vigil, day and night, in weatherfair and foul, Pataliputra reposes in peace-ful comfort; secure in the belief that theborders of Magadha are inviolate. The daythe soldier has to demand his dues… youwill have lost all moral sanction to beKing.

— Extracted from Kautilya’s letter toEmperor Chandragupta Maurya

NOTHING ILLUSTRATES thecritical, desperate need forestablishing the IndianNational Defence University(INDU) more than the high-

visibility-high-octane media and diplo-matic hyped February 28, 2012 release ofthe document: Non-Alignment 2.0: a For-eign and Strategic Policy for India in the

21st Century by a group of Indian foreignpolicy experts. The document purports toplace into context the core values andmethodology that will pitch India into theregional and world stage as a seriousplayer. It is the end result of 14 months oflabour by Pratap Bhanu Mehta, SunilKhilnani, Rajiv Kumar, Shyam Saran, SRaghavan, Nandan Nilekeni, SiddharthVaradarajan and Lt Gen (Retd) PrakashMenon. National Security Adviser Shiv-shankar Menon, Deputy NSA’s AlokPrasad and Latha Reddy attended andpresumably contributed to some ses-sions. Criticism has been muted so far bypeople in the official loop, but formerNSAs Brajesh Misra, M K Narayanan andeven Shivshankar Menon himself, havequestioned the approach, lack of depthand research orientation and conclusions

of the report. Widely read and respected scholar-sol-

dier Professor Gautam Sen is an ex-Gurkha Regiment officer who left theArmy in 1974 after 12 years of service. Heis a fellow of the International Institute ofStrategic Studies (IISS) and lectures at thePentagon, Harvard, Stanford, MIT,Georgetown, Illinois and Pittsburg Uni-versities. Commenting on Nonalignment2.0, he says: “I am refraining from com-menting on the desirability and strategicvalues of the report which could have eas-ily been made by any intelligent Ph.D.student from the Department of PoliticalScience, International Relations or PublicAdministration of any Indian University.”Clearly, this effort to fill the perceived“strategic culture” or “strategic thinking”void does not quite excite him. Reading

July 2012

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In order to promote a critical thinking among our senior service officers, the governmentmust speed up the process of establishing a National Defence University as per therecommendation in the 1999 Kargil Review Committee report, writes RAJ MEHTA

QUO VADIS, INDIAN NATIONALDEFENCE UNIVERSITY?

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Theestablishments of the Indian NationalDefence University is a pressing need


the fine print of his remarks, one feels thatthe Nehruvian “Non Alignment” model inits updated 21st century 2.0 incarnationto put across Indian security approachesand concerns does not quite pass muster,especially when this 70-page documentflags India’s national interest as “beingtoo complex” for elucidation. Sen saysthat this “lack of consensus” betweenthese security experts is “specifically dueto the reason that the process of bridgingthe gap between the realm of ideas andthe domain of public policy- mak-ing has never been achieved norattempted in India”.

The critical reactions to thisapex policy document, howevermuted, spell out the dismal state ofthe Union so far as orientationtowards the entire gamut of securi-ty is concerned, internal as well asexternal/global. It is high time,therefore, the government stopped“evading responsibility” and took astep towards developing a profes-sional, integrated approach to thesecurity conundrum.

A dozen years after the father ofmodern Indian strategic thinking,K Subrahmanyam, made his rec-ommendation in his 1999 KargilReview Committee (KRC) report,the government, taking intoaccount this, the follow-up TaskForce on Defence Reforms under ArunSingh and the subsequent Group of Min-isters (GoM) recommendations, finallypromulgated the INDU by an Act of Par-liament, on May 11, 2011. A 13-memberexpert committee (Committee on NDU orCONDU) was also constituted. It wasauthorised to visit the NDUs of USA andChina to formulate its suggestions forINDU structure, mandate andstaffing/functioning details. Officials sayINDU’s charter will be to undertake long-term defence and strategic studies; create“synergy’’ between academicians andgovernment functionaries, and “educatenational security leaders on all aspects ofnational strategy’’. In February 2011, theHaryana government started the processof land acquisition for 205 acres in Gur-gaon district in two villages, Binola and

Bilaspurat that lie along NH 8. It isbelieved that it will be seven years beforeINDU is open for business, taking theoverall waiting period for INDU realisa-tion to over 20 years.

The CONDU, after due deliberation,has chosen the American NDU model forINDU, but with modifications to suitIndian needs. Let us examine what the USNDU has on offer before we see how theINDU will be structured to meet its secu-rity challenges. In passing, the Chineseand Pakistani models will also be exam-ined.

Attributes of the US NDUBefore World War II, American scholar-ship manifested in its military servicesmore or less independently. The need for

inter-Services synergy and need for closerties between diplomacy, industry and themilitary led to the creation of the ArmyIndustrial College in 1924 and, after WorldWar II, the formation of joint colleges ofhigher military learning.

US NDU emblemThe NDU was established in 1976 to con-solidate the nation’s defense communityintellectual resources. NDU functionsunder the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Its missionis to prepare military and civilian leadersfrom the USA and other countries to bet-ter address national and internationalsecurity challenges through multi-disci-plinary educational programmes,research, professional exchanges andoutreach. The NDU includes the NationalWar College, Information Resources

Management College, Industrial Collegeof the Armed Forces, Joint Forces StaffCollege and the College of InternationalSecurity Affairs. It has six research centresthat work on strategy formulation/learn-ing; on the Chinese military; on WMD; ontechnology and on homeland security. Itruns a variety of programmes for military,civil, strategic communications, diplo-matic and corporate officials the worldover. NDU research papers/journals com-mand worldwide attention.

National University of Defense Technolo-gy (NUDT), ChinaEstablished in 1955 by the ChineseDefence and Education ministries, theNUDT focuses on integrated learning/research on Engineering, Defence Sci-

ence and Technology, IT and Spaceprogrammes. Its 2000-strong facultyhandles 28,000 PG/UG students.

NDU Pakistan Established in 1971, it has the Presi-dent of Pakistan as Chancellor, witha serving three-star General as itsPresident. Its mission is “to imparthigher education in policy and strat-egy formulation at various tiers withemphasis on national security anddefence, and act as a national think-tank”. Students take classes inadvanced strategic methods, con-flict resolution, WMD, nuclear poli-tics and diplomacy. The NDU ismodelled on the US NDU.

Quo Vadis INDU?Professor Gautam Sen is right instating that the USA must be credit-

ed with the unique ability of projecting “asingularity of education and nationalinterest”. Perhaps, its NDU best reflectsthis synergy; something that the CONDUobviously found worth emulating for theINDU. The INDU founding principle is to“ensure cross-pollination of ideas andstrategic thinking between academia andgovernment.” With this in mind, CONDUrecommended that INDU be establishedas a multi-disciplinary centre of excel-lence with its President, a serving three-star officer of the armed services, and theVice-President from the Indian ForeignService. The faculty ratio was fixed at 50per cent each from the military and civilservices (total of 135). CONDU had rec-ommended the establishment of aNational Institute of Security Studies, aCollege of National Security Policy; an

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gGEOP O L I T I C S

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MARTIAL PROWESS: Officers Training Academy, Gaya isthe third pre-commissioning military academy in the countryraised on July 18, 2011

MOD

Institute of Advanced Technology Studiesand an Institute of Defence Management(IDM) with the existing College ofDefence Management (CDM) under it,along with a new Centre for Research andPolicy and a College of IndustrialResearch and Management. It had alsosuggested a Corporate Fellowship Pro-gramme to be run by a Distance LearningDepartment. The views expressed havebeen criticised as the opinion suggeststhat existing military institutions withaccretion can take on the INDU charter.

Colonel Harinder Singh, a ResearchFellow writing in an IDSA Issue brief inNovember 2010, felt that tiered researchat four broad levels: area studies, strategicstudies; international relations and quan-titative studies (war gaming/simulation)would be needed. Training on global per-spectives in terms of India’s grand strate-gy and foreign policy should be coveredthrough studies in the field of interna-tional relations and political economy.Overall, he felt that a challenging coursecurriculum and well-researched deliver-ables could ensure institutional rigour. Inthis context, he felt that the American andBritish approaches — the former empha-sises extensive course work while the lat-ter is less reliant on theory — be studiedfor adopting. He also felt: “A well-craftedoutreach programme with academic uni-versities and policy-oriented researchthink-tanks within the country andabroad will contribute to the overall qual-ity of INDU scholarship.” He also felt thata visionary Advisory Committee and abrilliant, time-sensitive Steering Commit-tee were needed to deliver the INDU forbrilliant exploitation.

A sobering reality checkScouring the net or newspapers/journalshas not helped this writer get worthwhileauthentic details on what the currentstate of INDU preparations is for a time-sensitive, long-awaited opening. The dis-agreements with the recommendationsoffered by CONDU, the lack of trans-parency about INDU progress/chal-lenges/faculty hiring/tie-ups with foreigninstitutions of like nature/qualitativerequirements for students; military, civilor foreign leave us to draw the obviousconclusions. Instead of progress that onecould be proud of, it appears that fierce,unrelenting turf battles are afoot (thebane of Indian governance). Rumourmills suggest that there are differing per-ceptions about who should head theorganisation; inter-ministry differences ofperception with reference to running theinstitution and having a say in content;methodology and deliverables. The rapid-ly-expanding plethora of NCR-basedthink-tanks, most pandering to powerfullobbies, must surely want a share of theINDU pie. Since a stand has not been tak-en/publicly expressed on the overallstructure that INDU intends to adopt,existing and new, as also content and fac-ulty-related issues, the Indian defenceestablishment appears to be the key loser,even after Parliamentary approval. Thechoking fear is that the INDU may finallyend up merely replacing the JawaharlalNehru University (JNU) by way of awardof degrees to its affiliated military institu-tions, the National Defence Academy,Defence Services Staff College and the National Defence College, sending“scholars/ researchers” on junkets and

muddling along as a “centre of excellence”in our by now well-patented, ambivalentmanner.

The INDU of Our DreamsGeneral Shammi Mehta (Retd), ex-ArmyCommander and DG CII and an officerwho was part of the Arun Singh Task Forceon Defence Reform way back in 2000, is,however, optimistic and hopeful. Hopefulthat national interest will override all oth-er considerations, he feels that INDU,though correctly modelled on the USmodel, must find its own path for creatingan interdisciplinary approach through afully integrated multi-disciplinary format.This should allow us to examine issues ofoverwhelming concern to us such as, forinstance, the Arab Spring; the validity andexecution of out-of-area operations or theway we look at our relationship and prob-lem resolution vis-à-vis China.

One would like to add that INDUshould be capable of defining “sufficient”as opposed to “classic” victory for India —even under the threat of a nuclear over-hang. The research done by INDU usingits unique India-specific integrated mod-el should allow INDU to suggest strategiesusing Indian military, soft as well as diplo-matic/cultural/economic powers fornational and international good. Such acritical thinking-led research approachattuned to Indian realities will ensure thatdocuments like Non Aligned 2.0 inviteprofessional respect not criticism. As theGita says, when the wise see knowledgeand action as one, they see truly. INDUcan give us that chance.

(The author is a retired Major General)


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NEED OF THE HOUR: It is high time the government stopped “evading responsibility” and took a step towards developing a solution to the security conundrum

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geopolitics

The Pinaka system is the onlyindigenous rocket system inoperation with the Indian Armyand one of the DRDO’s mostsuccessful programmes. Butnow, after a request by the end-user, the DRDO is developingan extended range version,reports ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

D E F E N C E B U S I N E S S

TOP SHOTSniper rifles to extend the

reach of Indian marksmen

SUBMARINE SPECIALISTS 39 Atlas brings a wealth ofunderwater expertise to India 28

KERALA STATE Electronics Deve-lopment Corporation (Keltron)has received an order of `sixcrore from Naval Physical andOceanographic Laboratory(NPOL), Kochi. The contract isfor the supply of sonar simula-tors. NPOL is DRDO’s leadinglaboratory, which works in thenaval segment. The simulatorswill be manufactured by Keltronat its Aroor unit. Simulators areused in imparting training to thenaval personnel on how to oper-ate the sonars on the ships andsubmarines of the Indian Navy.

Keltron has won this compet-itive bid by defeating BharatElectronics Limited. The simula-tor designed by the NPOl incor-porates features of internationalstandards. The Aroor plant is anexclusive unit for the Sonar ArrayProduction, which can not onlymanufacture but also repair andtest sonar systems.

PINAKA IS one rocket systemthat both the Army and theDefence Research Develop-ment Organisation (DRDO)are proud of. The DRDO-

developed Pinaka multi-barrel rocket-launching system can provide mas-sive artillery support to Armycolumns. With a range of around 40km, it has the capability to strike deepwithin enemy territory and pulverizethe enemy command and controlcentres, formation headquarters andformations deep in the battlefield.

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Under development during the Kargil War, thePinaka was test-fired during the conflict to checkits prowess in a real battle. At that time, the IndianArmy made an extensive use of the Russian-originGrad 21 (122mm) rocket system for salvo firing todislodge intruders from the Himalayan heights.The destructive impact of the multiple rocket sys-tem on the enemys’ fortified position strength-ened the case for multiple-barrel rocket systems.India subsequently purchased the 90-km-rangeSmerch rocket system from Russia in 2006.

Being an imported system with high-end speci-fications, the Smerch works out as a very costlyproposition. And, since it has the capability to firedifferent types of warheads, it does not make senseto use the Smerch against targets at short range.

Across the world, the trend is to first createrocket systems with a low-range and once the via-bility of the design has been demonstrated, devel-opment of the extended range version, with thesame support system, begins. This incrementalupgradation is a common phenomenon for anyweapons system and platform.

July 2012

DRDO

July 2012

Speaking on the Pinaka-upgrade programme, Dr S Sundaresh, Chief Controller Research & Development(Armament and Combat Engineering),DRDO, said: “This is one of our successstories. At present, two regiments of thePinaka multi-barrel rocket system areoperational in the western sector. Thelauncher is being manufactured by TataSED (Strategic Electronics Division) andLarsen & Toubro. The command centre ismade by Bharat Electronics Limited(BEL) and Bharat Earth Movers Limited(BEML) makes the replenishment vehi-cles. It is thus a good mix between pri-vate and public players. At present, themissile has a range between 35 and 40km depending on factors such as windspeed, elevation, hurdle and warheadetc.”

The complete Pinaka system compris-es the launcher vehicle, command cen-tre, repair vehicle and loader-cum-replenishment vehicle. The 214-mm

rocket is being produced at the Ord-nance Factory Board, at the rate of 1000rockets per year.

Speaking on the future orders for therocket system from the Indian Army, DrSundaresh said, “In the next 18 monthsthe Indian Army is planning to raisethree-four regiments of the rocket sys-tem. The Army has plans of having alarge number of Pinaka regiments in thefuture. The production facility of therocket is being upgraded.”

One regiment of the Pinaka is made upof 20 launchers. Generally, 36 rockets arekept in the replenishment vehicle forevery launcher. Being an area weapon,the Pinaka does not have precision-strikecapability and is, therefore, fired in salvoto neutralise targets over a large area.Each Pinaka regiment has three batteriesand each battery has six launchers -while one launcher is used for practiceand training, another is kept as reserve.

Every battery has a command vehicle

and a replenishment vehicle is allottedfor two launchers. At present, the IndianArmy has three rocket systems, namelyGrad 21, Pinaka and Smerch, with a maximum range of 20 km, 40 km and 90km, respectively.

There was a need for a rocket systemwith a range between that of the Smerchand that of the Pinaka. The Smerch canneutralise targets at the Pinaka’s rangebut it is a costly system and the Army islooking for a cost-effective solution tothis requirement. (The DRDO’s Prahar isanother rocket system which is underdevelopment and will fill the rangebetween the Smerch and the Brahmos).

Dr Sundaresh added: “A year back, theArmy asked us for a longer range Pinakaand it put a stipulation that the systemshould not change much. So we carriedout a feasibility study.”

To increase the range while keepingother specifications intact was possibleonly by improving the propellant system.In any rocket system, there are threecomponents, the propulsion system,command and control and warhead.Since the last two do not play a role inrange, the only system that was neededto improve was the propulsion system.According to Dr Sundaresh: “New propel-lant techniques have increased the rangewithout any major modification. We dida feasibility study and told the Army thatit can be done with improved propellant.The range will be increased withoutmuch change in the launcher and sup-port system. The same launcher with a

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SHOCK AND AWE: The Pinaka is capableof unleashing massive amount of firepoweron the enemy

BOTH THE ARMY AND DRDO ARE PROUD

OF THE PINAKA ROCKET

SYSTEM

slight repositioning of some systems canaccommodate new rockets.”

In order to pack more propellant inalmost the same space, the DRDO hasemployed a new packing technique,which has increased the range substan-tially. “In the new rockets, a case-bondedpropellant technique is being usedwherein the same volume of 30 per cent

more propellant is packed,” informed DrSundaresh. “We are also using a morepowerful propellant in the new rockets.The improved propellant, along with bet-ter packing has improved range up to 60km.”

The length of rocket doesn’t remainexactly the same: it will increase by 30 cmwhile the weight of the launcher will

increase by 40 kg. The warhead of therocket, however, remains the same. Sothe system will be able to make use of thesame support system and launchers.

The new rockets are undergoing trials.Dr Sundaresh, who is spearheading theMark-II project, informed, “We startedthe static test in January 2012. We did acouple of static trials and the completetrials will be completed by September.The technical trials or DRDO validationwill be completed by the end of this year.As per schedule, by the middle of 2013,user-trials should be complete and theclearance for production is expected bythe end of 2013. During the actual flight-test, fine-tuning of the aerodynamics ofthe rocket will be carried out.”

At present, the DRDO is further fine-tuning the propellant packing in therockets and carrying out static trials.According to Dr Sundaresh, “50-60 proto-types were developed for the trial pur-pose. The project would cost `40 croreand in three years we would be able toincrease the range by 50 per cent. Ourproject management has improved. Inany Mark-II of existing systems, we areable to improve in a short span of time.”

The DRDO is working very closely withthe industry partners for the Mark-II ver-sion. Dr Sundaresh said, “For launchersystem we are already in touch with theindustry. By end of the next year, the sup-port system of the rocket system will beready to prove the total system. We aregoing to the same companies to carry outthe change in the product.”

When operational, this new improvedPinaka will provide flexibility to Armycommanders on the battlefield. Theadditional indigenous rocket system,which can be manufactured in largenumbers, will provide the Army thecapability to create firepower asymmetryin a much shorter time span.


DRDO ISWORKING

CLOSELY WITHINDUSTRYPARTNERS

FOR PINAKAMARK II

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Technical CharacteristicsMaximum range : 38 kmNo of tubes per launcher : 12Time of fire salvo of 12 rockets : 44 sTime of coming into action : 3 minArea neutralised by a battery of six launchers : 100 m by 800 m

Rocket CharacteristicsCalibre : 214 mmTotal weight : 276 kgWarhead weight : 100 kgLength : 4950 mmFuze : Proximity / ETPropellant : CompositeLoaded pod weight : 2700 kg

Replenishment CharacteristicsTime required for loading two pods on a launcher vehicle : 10 minTime required for loading two pods on a LCR vehicle : 10 minTime required for loading two pods on a RV : 15 minTime required for unloading of fired pods from a launcher and reloading from LCR : 15 min

SCOURGE OF THE ENEMY

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BOEING DELIVERED the first EA-18G Growler electronicattack aircraft with a cockpit subassembly produced by theBengaluru-based Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) to theUS Navy in early May. The subassembly provides cockpitfloodlighting compatible with the aircraft’s Night VisionImaging System (NVIS). The initial contract was awardedto BEL by Boeing in March 2011 for F/A-18 cockpitsubassemblies. The initial contract had options to renew itfor up to four years annually. Based on BEL’s performance,Boeing had renewed the contract for another year.

Dennis Swanson, Vice President of InternationalBusiness Development for Boeing Defense, Space &Security in India, said: “BEL continues to demonstrate itscapabilities and its position as a valued partner to Boeing.BEL’s work on P-8I, Super Hornets and Growlers is anotherexample of how Indian companies are becoming a part ofthe global supply chain while Boeing helps them expandtheir opportunities across the global aerospace industry.”

Some of the cockpit subassemblies to be installed onBoeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets includes complex-machined stowage panel for the Joint Helmet MountedCueing System connector cable and an avionics coolingsystem fan test switch panel with an NVIS-compatiblefloodlight assembly.

In addition to these, BEL provides IdentificationFriend or Foe (IFF) interrogators and Data Link IIcommunications systems for the Indian Navy’s fleet of P-8I maritime reconnaissance aircraft. Boeing and BEL arealso partners in the Analysis & Experimentation Centre(AEC) in Bengaluru since 2009. AEC is a centre forcollaboration, experimentation and discovery, where bothfirms work to help the Indian armed forces understandthe potential operational impacts of new systemconcepts, innovative technologies, and emerging andevolving processes.

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BOEING

The Boeing- BEL connectionTHE INDIAN Army hasconveyed its assurance to theMinistry of Defence on theinduction of DRDO’s under-development artilleryguns. ArmamentResearch andDevelopmentEstablishment(ARDE), one of theleading DRDO labswhich develops theweapon system, hasbeen working on a

155 mm 52 caliber artillerygun. The Indian Army hasreportedly told DRDO that itwould place orders for 140guns if it passes the field trials.Ordnance Factory Board (OFB)is producing the Bofors gunsfor the Indian Army. Thecontract for the Bofors gunalso included the TechnologyTransfer and the the IndianArmy has placed orders for 100of these guns to bemanufactured by the OFB.

INDIA IS goingto buy eight minecounter-measuresvessels (MCMVs)from the SouthKorean KangnamCorporation for `6000 cr. Thecontract will beexecuted in twoparts. In the firstpart the Korean

firm will build two of these vessels. The rest of the six vesselswill be constructed at the MoD-owned Goa Shipyard aftertransfer of technology from the prime contractor. The finalprice negotiation is going on.

Modern MCMVs are built from composites and high-grade steel, which gives them a low level of magnetivity.These vessels will be equipped with radars and acousticsensors with the capability to detect and then destroy mineswith underwater vehicles. Mines are easy to lay and a verycheap and effective way to destroy ships when they try toenter harbours.

DRDO howitzers? Yes, says Army

Eight minesweepers from South Korea

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HINDUSTAN AERONAUTICS Limited (HAL) will invest `600 crore in anew unit at Chellaghatta to manufacture new fighter aircraft and forengine production. The new unit, spread over 40 acres, will be adja-cent to HAL airport in Bengaluru. A Memorandum of Understandingin this regard was inked between the state of Karnataka and HAL inearly June. The Karnataka government has said that it will support theexpansion of HAL. The new facility will have two divisions, one for eir-craft assembly and testing and another for engine assembly and testing for the new fighter aircraft pro-gramme.

According to R K Tyagi, Chairman, HAL: “The new unit requiresaccess to a runway. It is a time-bound programme to establish theinfrastructure, production facilities and supply of the aircraft.” Theproduction facility has a potential to create direct employment foraround 1,200 personnel. Another 3,600 jobs are expected to be createdbecause of logistics, services and outsourcing activities.

The expert group on “Restructuring and Strengthening of HAL”under the leadership of B K Chaturvedi, former Cabinet Secretary andMember, Planning Commission, visited various facilities of HAL on

June 11, 2012. They held discussions with R K Tya-gi, Chairman, HAL and other senior officials.

The mandate of the group is to look intoissues such as building up specific busi-

ness groups and profit centres in HALand suggesting measures to meet tech-nological and HR challenges. It will alsofocus on how to enhance synergiesbetween HAL, the private defence sec-tor and civilian industry and suggestchanges in the organisation and its pro-

duction lines. The expert group will sub-mit its report by end of July 2012.

THE INDIAN multi-roletransport aircraft project hascrossed another milestonewith a tripartite agreementsigned between HindustanAeronautics Ltd (HAL), Unit-ed Aircraft Corporation -Transport Aircraft (UAC-TA)and Multirole Transport Air-craft Ltd (MTAL). To work onthe joint development ofMTA, HAL Rosoboronexport

and UAC-TA formed a jointventure firmMTAL. HAL hasa 50 per centshare in theMTAL and therest is equallydividedbetween two ofthe Russianfirms.

The aircraft is going to be

in the class of 15 to 20tonnes. TheMTA is goingto replacethe Dornieraircraft,which is inservice withthe Indianarmed

forces. The demand for thisaircraft between the develop-

ing partners is close to 145aircraft; India is expected tobuy 45 aircraft while over 60aircraft are expected to beexported to other nations.According to HAL: “The MTAproject’s preliminary designwill start immediately onsigning the follow-up con-tract on preliminary designon which tripartite discus-sions have been concluded.”

HAL inks contract for MTA

HAL to invest `600 crore in new unit

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NTRA

WAT

95 UAVs for Navy and Air Force

THE INDIAN Air Force and IndianNavy will buy 95 mini UnmannedAerial Vehicles (UAV) jointly. Theministry is at present formulating thespecifications for the tender docu-ment. The bidding process for thistender is expected to begin earlypart of the next year. Out of the 95UAVs, IAF will get 60 of these birdsand the rest will go to the IndianNavy. At present India is usingIsraeli UAVs, mostly Searchers andHeron. The main specification of theUAVs is that the weight should notexceed 33 pounds as they would beoperated by individual soldiers. TheIndian Army has also floated a simi-lar tender for mini UAVs. The Indianarmed forces are now striving tobring in assets that can give real-time long-range surveillance capabil-ity to even the lowest formations inthe battlefield.

DEF BIZ


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DURING DEF EXPO 2012, Mahindraand Mahindra (M&M) announced thesigning of a Memorandum of Under-standing (MoU) with Israeli militarybehemoth Rafael. The M&M statementsaid that the MoU would lead to the for-mation of a joint venture (JV) companyin India. The JV will manufacture sub-surface naval products such as Anti-Tor-pedo Defence System (ATDS), Electron-ic Warfare Systems, Advanced ArmourSolutions and Remotely OperatedWeapons Stations for Futuristic InfantryCombat vehicle (FICV).

Speaking to the Geopolitics, BrigKutub Hai, Chief Executive, MahindraDefence System (MDNS) said: “TheMoU was signed to form a joint ventureagency. MDNS is a fully-owned sub-sidiary of the M&M. As per our planRafael will buy 26 per cent of stakes inMDNS. This will form the JV. We looked

around for a partner for two years innaval system. In Rafael we found theright partner for having a long-termstrategic partnership. Rafael is a good fitin the underwater naval system.”

As part of the JV, Rafael will bring inthe anti-torpedo defence system forwhich the Request for Proposal (RFP) isexpected very soon from the IndianNavy. Naval electronic warfare systemsand unmanned surface vehicles will besome of the technologically-advancedproducts that Rafael will bring to thetable in the first phase of the JV.

If Mahindra sticks to the FICV selec-tion process, the JV will also make someproducts for the programme like activeprotection system for the vehicle andremote control weapon system.

At the Defexpo, Anand Mahindra,MD, M&M, had said: “Our joint venturewith Rafael signals our strategic entry

into a wide range of high-tech defencesolutions, which will enable the Mahin-dra Group to become a leading defencesystems integrator in India.”

On the question of how the techtransfer would take place in the JV,Brigadier Hai said, “The JV will alsohave people deputed from Israel. Trans-fer of Technology is very much part ofthe JV. They would be providing fullsupport in anti-torpedo and ElectronicWarfare (EW) systems. We will also besending our people to Rafael to experi-ence the high technology manufactur-ing process. We will be receiving back-ground intellectual property (IP) fromRafael. Thereafter, we will also be cus-tomising the Rafael products and creat-ing lot of foreground IP will come fromJV. We will definitely have peopleabsorbing technology from Rafael andcustomising for Indian requirement.This is one of the prime reasons to getthe technology.”

MNDS is Pune based and the com-pany is in the process of acquiring 3-4acres more and plans to build a floorspace of around 40,000 sq ft in its newfacility. The shareholder agreement isexpected to be final by September 2012and the plant is expected to be ready bynext year. The production from theplant is expected to begin by early 2014.

Till now, MNDS has delivered tripletorpedo launchers to the Navy, a con-tract which it won earlier. It respondedto the global RFI for the ATDS. RFP forthe same is expected very shortly. TheMDNS will be doing around 30-40 percent of the workshare of the ATDS. Indi-an Navy is purchasing ATDS for its sur-face ships but in the future they couldalso be deployed for its submarine fleet.

Brigadier Hai said that M&M wasfocusing on underwater systems as itwas easy to acquire capability in anygiven niche area. He also said that thecompany would also be offering sonarsystems in future. According toBrigadier Hai, the Mahindra-Telephon-ics JV would be providing technologyfor the ATDS and as well as unmannedsurface vehicles.

gg

MAHINDRA

Hai on Mahindra Naval JV with Rafael

NOVEL PARTNERSHIP: Brigadier (Retd) K A Hai Chief Executive, Mahindra DefenceSystems, with Vice Admiral (Retd) Yedida Yaari, CEO, Rafael at the signing of the MoU. Inthe background are Anand Mahindra, Vice Chairman & MD, Mahindra & Mahindra andMajor General (Retd) Ilan Biran Chairman, VP GM land & Naval Systems Sector, Rafael


DCNS and Pipavav team up big time

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DCNS AND PIPAVAV have teamed upto establish a strategic partnership tobring DCNS technologies, methodsand skills to Pipavav. The focus of thecollaboration is to build the higheststate-of-the-art strategic assets,including modern warships for theIndian Navy and Coast Guard.

Speaking on the partnership,Patrick Boissier, DCNS Chairman,said: “Through the P75 Scorpene sub-marines, the ongoing indigenisationprogramme and DCNS India, we areworking to enlarge our footprint inIndia. This strategic partnership withPipavav again demonstrates DCNS’confidence in the growing capabilitiesand long-term development of theIndian defence industries.”

Nikhil Gandhi, Pipavav Chairman,in his statement, said: “DCNS is wellknown for its high-tech platformssuch as Scorpene submarines, Mis-tral-Class LPDs, FREMM frigates andinnovative Gowind vessels (Corvettesand Offshore Patrol Vessels) amongothers. DCNS and Pipavav will pro-vide India with advanced expertise onnaval ships. The synergies betweenIndia’s largest integrated shipyard andthe proficiency of the largest Euro-pean naval defence company willallow cost-effective and timely manu-facturing of high-class vessels for thebenefit of all customers.”

The partnership was cemented ayear back but was kept under wraps,thanks to the controversy overPipavav and other private sector play-ers and the on-off permission statusof the Pipavav-Mazagoan Dock col-laboration. The partnership is prepar-ing a roadmap to build warships.

Pipavav needs technology for warshipand surface-vessel building. DCNS isinterested in building ships in Indiaunder the ‘Make India’ programmeand it was looking for a shipyard inIndia, which had all the requiredfacilities to manufacture modernnaval warships.

The Indian government is willingto buy ships from abroadbut wants a slowand systematicmovement ofthe technologyand expertiseto India. Ineffect, itwants theseships to bebuilt in India.DCNS is will-ing to sharetechnology withIndia. The part-nership betweenthe two firms isthat Pipavav willprovide the infra-structure whileDCNS will providethe technology. Asper the agreementbetween the twocompanies, anyDCNS contractfrom Indian gov-ernment will beundertaken by theproject to thePipavav shipyard.

Pierre Legros,DCNS Head of theSurface Ships

division, concluded: “DCNS’s pledgeis to become a key technology andKnow-How Provider (KHP) to Pipavav.Our objective is to propose modernmanufacturing processes togetherwith state-of-the-art platforms. DCNSis committed to transfer the technolo-gies needed to support India’s nation-

al security needs.”

DCNS

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ONE SHOT ONE KILL: Sniper riflesprovide reach and lethality like no otherinfantry weapon

VIRE

NDRA

SING

H

SNIPER RIFLES play a very crucialrole for infantry units by provid-ing reach, lethality and precisionthat no other small infantryweapon can provide on the bat-

tlefield. Sniper rifles are used to neu-tralise the enemy that is well entrenchedand difficult to target, as well as enemyofficers providing leadership to troops.The elimination of a leader in any unitcreates chaos and confusion among thesoldiers. During any operation snipersare expected to target the enemy precise-ly without exposing themselves.

The Indian Army’s Directorate ofInfantry and Additional Directorate Gen-eral of Weapons and Equipment sent outan open Request for Information (RFI) to‘identify probable vendors who canundertake the project’. The last date torespond to the RFI was June 15, 2012.

The Army’s document says: “Theweapon should be modular and facilitatereplacement of sub-assemblies.” Thismeans that the Army is looking forweapons that are easy to maintain. Mod-ular designs do not require the entireweapon to be opened or dismantled if asub-system malfunctions. The malfunc-tioning system can be replaced withoutdisturbing any other systems. This is costeffective and less time consuming.

The Army is interested in a weaponsystem that has an adjustable cheek restfor the operator, providing him comfortduring target acquisition. The RFI alsosuggests that the Army would be interest-ed in guns with different ‘butt options’which is a rare quality among sniperrifles. The Indian Army also wants theseguns to be capable of firing blank rounds.

The RFI also calls for a sniper rifle with‘many sling attachment points’, and‘detachable bipods’. The Army needs

confirmation from the Original Equip-ment Manufacturers (OEM) on the‘demonstration of the weapon system inIndia on a No-Cost No-Commitmentbasis’ and also wants OEMs to ‘supplylimited equipment for trials at No-CostNo-Commitment basis.’

The Indian Army has more than athousand units that would require theseguns. The final number involved wouldbe in thousands, as the Army might giveone or more of these sniper rifles to eachbattalion. Weapons such as grenadelaunchers, light machine guns and medi-um machine guns, etc. are bought

according to a plan of giving one per sec-tion or one per company in a unit. Ifthese are bought at the rate of one percompany, then every battalion will haveat least five sniper rifles.

In its questionnaire, the Indian Armyhad asked for the production capacity ofthe manufacturers, indicating that theArmy is interested in buying sniper riflesin large numbers, but in a short span oftime. It does not want to compromisewhen it comes to acquisition. The RFI asksthe OEM to ‘indicate the minimum quan-tity of weapons with which, they would be

willing to offer transfer of technology’. TheIndian Army also wants information aboutthe countries which are operating theseweapons and since when.

The Indian Army has also enquiredabout the ‘cost of one complete sniperrifle along with sighting system’. Thisprobably suggests that the Army has notbeen able to figure out the total numberof weapons it intends to buy. The recentprocurement scandals have made theArmy slightly wary, and in recent times ithas started enquiring about sub-contrac-tors and vendors.

At present, the Indian Army uses anumber of sniper rifles from a wide rangeof countries with different specifications(see box). Recent reports in the mediahave suggested that the Army would bepurchasing 2000 sniper rifles for 300Ghatak battalions. The RFP for this wasissued last year to augment the existingstocks. Last year, the Army also floated atender for flame suppressors for existingsniper rifles. In the current RFI, the rifle isexpected to have noise and flame sup-pressors to add stealth to the gun.

The Army has also started scouting fornew sighting systems for its sniper rifles.In this RFI, the Army has asked for day-time sighting systems and magnificationsystems with field of view, digital zoomand diopter settings. The Army is alsolooking for picatinny rails to mount vari-ous sighting systems. Existing small armswill be modernised with picatinny rails toenable them to mount sighting systems,target designators and thermal imagers.

This is just the beginning of theprocess. The track record of the Army isnot very good when it comes to the speedof acquisition. But the infantry needs tobe modernised urgently and India can’tafford to be slow in this regard.

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The Indian Army has taken another step towards the modernisation of its most neglectedbranch, the infantry. Here is an analysis of the recent Indian Army RFI for new

sniper rifles

MAKING INDIAN

SNIPERS ELITE

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THE INDIAN ARMY IS

PURCHASING 2,000 SNIPER

RIFLES FOR 300GHATAK

BATTALIONS

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THE INDIAN Army has beenusing UAVs of different sizes forsome years now but now it ismoving towards the next revo-lution in military affairs. On

May 22, 2012, the Indian Army released aRequest for Information (RFI) for miniUAVs through the Directorate General ofInfantry. The RFI details the importantspecification that the Army would like tohave in the UAV, such as ‘real-time, sur-veillance and reconnaissance, detectionof enemy movement, target detection,recognition, identification and acquisi-tion, post-strike damage assessment(PSDA)’. This covers the gamut of a mis-sion that a UAV is capable of.

At present, the Indian Army uses theIsraeli Heron and Searcher UAVs forreconnaissance missions. Of late, theArmy has also been employing UAVs fora border management role extensively inKashmir. The UAVs are flown to track

and identify insurgents infiltrating fromthe other side of the Line of Control(LoC). This has improved the IndianArmy’s efficiency in the high mountainsof Kashmir. The UAVs have become anintegral part of the Army’s operationalplan, as evidenced in a recently-con-cluded military exercise. This is a devia-tion from the usual secrecy that sur-rounds the information about the UAVsand their operations. All the three Ser-vices have been buying UAVs secretively,but now the Army has lifted the veil withthe intention to purchase these aircraftwith an RFI.

According to the RFI, the UAV shouldbe able to use both Raster and Digital Ter-rain Elevation Data. The Indian Armywants the UAV system to have ‘Three Aer-ial Vehicles (AVs) or Platforms, one ManPortable Ground Control Station(MPGCS), three Launch and RecoverySystems.’

The Army would like the system tohave ‘a remote video terminal’, three-colour day video cameras; three mono-chromatic night thermal sensors and oneradio relay (RR). The weight of the wholemini UAV system is restricted to 35 kg,which would include the ‘weight of oneAV with its MPGCS, backpack(s) (whererequired), one launch and recovery sys-tem (where required) and one set of opti-cal sensors’.

Other requirements include the abilityof ‘launch and recover the AV within anarea of 50 metres by 50 metres.’ And if thelaunch is from wheeled launcher ‘the AVshould take off / land from an unpavedsurface in a distance of not more than 50metres’.

The Army wants two different variantsof the UAVs, one for the plains and anoth-er for the mountains, with a missionrange of over 10 kilometres with maxi-mum payload. The mountain variant is

July 2012

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have become the need of the hour for all the armed forceswith an expansion of systems capable of executing various tasks at a fraction of the cost of

legacy systems, reports ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

EAGLE EYES FOR THEINDIAN ARMY

expected to be ‘launched and recoveredup to an elevation of 4 kilometres at sealevel and ‘operate up to 1000 metresabove ground level (AGL)’. The droneshould also have ‘endurance of 90 min-utes, with a minimum loiter time of 45minutes with maximum payload at 1000metres above takeoff altitude andground-operating temperatures rangingfrom minus 100 C ± 5° C to plus 300 C ± 5°C.’ This suggests that these will beemployed in the greater Himalayan rangeand also in the LoC region, where theaverage altitude is around 5,000 meters.

The flight envelop expected from theplain and hill version is that it would becapable of being ‘launched and recoveredup to an elevation of three kilometres atsea level and operate up to 1000 metreabove ground level (AGL) and have anendurance of 120 minutes with a loitertime of at least 60 minutes with maxi-mum payload at 1000 metre above take-off altitude and ground-operating tem-peratures of 0° (Zero degrees) C ± 5° C toplus 400 C ± 5°C.’

The RFI wants the MPGCS to operatein ‘S Band (2 GHz to 4 GHz) with digitaltransmission’. It further expects the UAVsystem to ‘provide real-time video fromthe day sensor with a minimum resolu-tion of 1280 by 720 pixels at not less than20 frames per second’. Similarly, theinfrared camera is expected to capture‘real-time video at a minimum resolutionof 640 by 480 pixels at not less than 20

frames per second’.The UAV system should also have

two-way radio relay within a radius offive kilometers to another UAV alongwith the ability to relay ‘live sensor feedand telemetry data to the MPGCS’. TheArmy also wants more than one of theseaerial vehicles to transmit data within afive-square-kilometer range, withoutmutual interference.

One can expect numerous globalfirms to offer their UAVs to match thesespecifications. There has been an expo-nential rise in the mini and micro-UAVsegment as they have the capability toenhance battlefield capability of theunits that employ them. As has been theexperience in Afghanistan and Iraq,where sections use mini and micro-UAVs in operation these will most prob-ably be company-level assets. The Indi-an armed forces are going net-centricand this is another step towards achiev-ing the net-centric capability. Inciden-tally, within a year, all the three Serviceswill have their own satellites.

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OBSERVE AND REPORT: The micro UAVsbestow a tactical advantage to infantry unitsby dispelling the fog of war

www.geopolitics.in

(31)July 2012

USAFRICOM/ FILCKR

AT PRESENT, THEINDIAN ARMY USESTHE ISRAELI HERON

AND SEARCHERUAVs FOR

RECONNAISSANCEMISSIONS

www.geopolitics.in


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A.CZ

BLACKLISTING:UNENDING SAGA

THE INTERNATIONAL defenceindustry has become wary of

the Indian Defence Ministry after theblacklisting of five defence firms. Butif the sources are to be believed, theMinistry has moved an internalmemo-cum-advisory on the black-listing. Basically, the idea is to black-list the individual firms not the group,but the Ministry has decided toignore the companies for the tenderprocess. For the moment, at least. Infuture, it will change its stance as perthe situation. What dynamism! It’slike saying: Show me the companyand we will show you the law.

LAST MONTH we had report-ed on the big contract won by

Reliance Industries to wire upMumbai, their first step to get intothe defence and internal securityspace. Here is the further update onthe same. Reliance is setting up twocompanies to handle the internalsecurity and defence genre. Inter-nal Security will be handled byDefence Security Solutions Ltd anda defence segment — whereReliance is primarily focusing onaerospace — will be handled byReliance Aero Space TechnologyLtd. Almost every major global avi-ation company has been in discus-sion with Reliance for some sort ofcollaborative effort including Das-sault, SAAB, Boeing, EADS, Lock-heed and who have you. It seemsReliance is keen on moving forwardin the aerospace segment/globalassembly and sub-assembly ratherthan leapfrog into an ambitiousmanufacturing rigmarole straight-way. It is in this context that almostall OEMs — both in the US and theEurope — have spoken to Reliance:“The logic is to when we should bepart of a global supply chain is infact a valuable cog into wheel, atleast that is the perspective. That isthe development model we arelooking at,” said somebody whohas been closely associated withtheir operations.

THE MINISTRY Of Defence’s Defence Acquisition Council, is

slated to meet to discuss the IndianArmy’s proposals for acquisition ofdifferent weapon systems in July. Oneof the proposals that will undergoscrutiny is the acquisition of Light- Ar-moured Vehicles for the infantry. Theproposal is expected to go through the‘Make India’ programme but both theindustry and the Army do not seemvery enthusiastic about that. One ofthe reasons is that the Army’sbudget for internal security isbeing reduced. The internal secu-rity budget is being diverted to-wards paramilitary organisationsfrom the Army. In the last fewyears, the paramilitaryhas begun buying a huge number of armoured vehiclesand similarly the

THERELIANCEBLUEPRINT

HEMANT RAWAT

THE RAVI Rishi hand in the BEMLbusiness is getting deeper. A couple

of years ago, BEML did a contract withthe Slovakian firm DMD, the owner ofthe Konstructa. The contract was for themanufacturing of the DMD’s Zuzana 2,155/52 caliber howitzer in India. Duringthe Defexpo, BEML displayed a model ofthe wheeled version of the gun.

The wheeled version of the gun ismounted on Tatra Trucks. Thus thismakes the Tatra-Konstructa combinationa must for the gun. What is significant inthis story is that the same gun went intothe wheeled gun trials for the Indian

Army’s tender. The barrel burst duringthe trials and Konstructa replaced thebarrel and thereafter the gun performedwell. But the gun performance was notup to the mark and with Rheinmetalbeing blacklisted, the tender went into asingle-vendor situation.

Therefore, Ravi Rishi pushed thesame gun which did not perform as perthe Army’s requirements and BEML wenton to do the contract. Since the DPSU(Defence Public Sector Undertaking) getspreferential contracts from the ministry,the Zuzana would have been pushed intothe Indian Army under the name of indi-genisation.

RAVI RISHI FACTOR

July 2012

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INDIAN

BOFORS

THE BOFORS 155/39 calibergun, which is being made by

the Ordnance Factory Board(OFB) under Transfer of Technolo-gy (ToT), is about to cross animportant threshold very soon.The OFB is releasing tenders forthe partners to make the famoushowitzer gun. The OFB is plan-ning to do the barrel and theupper carriage of the gun.

The undercarriage, that com-prises the legs and body, will bemanufactured by the privateindustry. The chances of the MDS-BAE joint venture Defence LandSystem India, which is bidding forthe undercarriage manufacturingtender, is very high. The undercar-riage is a very crucial part of thegun and makes up around 40 percent of the gun. Any upgradation ofthe caliber of the gun is only possi-ble if the undercarriage is strong.The OFB will manufacture the bar-rel, ordnance and recoil system ofthe gun and is also looking for ven-dors for various assembly and sub-assembly of the gun.

The ToT of the famed Boforswas done under the initial con-tract for this gun that was signedbetween the AB Bofors and theMoD in 1986. Since then, the tech-nology was lying idle with the OFBand India continuously looked forimporting guns from foreign man-ufacturers. In the second phase,the OFB is slated to manufacturethe 45 caliber version of theBofors gun.

BAES

YSTE

MS

LAV MAY NOT GET DAC

CLEARANCE

J&K police is also buying armoured ve-hicles in large numbers. One of themain manufacturers of armoured vehi-cles in India is not at all excited aboutthe proposal. The chances are very highthat this proposal of `1500 cr might gothe way the tender for light strike vehi-cles for the Special Forces went. Thelight strike vehicle proposal is startingagain from scratch.

Both the Army and the Air force arelooking to acquire a number of all

terrain light strike vehicles (ATLSVs) tofunction as “offensive weapon plat-forms in all terrain configurations tomeet special operations requirementsof a small team”. The requirements callfor a vehicle in the 3,500-kg unladenweight class category with a payloadcapacity of 900-1200 kg. These will behigh-mobility vehicles for reconnais-sance and patrol roles to provide spaceand cross mobility in all terrains (including high altitude and deserts).

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gSPECIALREPORT

IN REAL terms, it’s the moolah thatmakes for any exhibit ion or airshow. At the In 2010 FarnboroughAir Show, $47 billion worth oforders were announced there were

over 1.2 lakh (1,20,000) visitors andclose to 1,500 exhibitors from 40 coun-tries around the world. It’s a differentball game this year: the economy con-

tinues to flounder, business is tough,spending cuts are huge and the industryis still sluggish and far from a recoverymode. The surprise is that nearly 30 percent of the exhibitors at this year’s showare first timers.

While the defence market is undoubt-edly depressed, it’s the commercialaerospace market that’s on the upswing.

The big aircraft from the last edition —the 787 Dreamliners — has sinceentered service and Airbus promisesthat the A350XWB has long passed thestage of glitches and is now on coursefor development. That apart the red hotA320 Neo and the737 MAX will providemore excitement.

This year’s Farnborough Air Show,


DRDO

A platform to demonstrate civilian and military aircraft to potential customers and investors,the Farnborough International Air Show has a legendary reputation among aircraft enthusiasts

and industry bigwigs. A look at the key prospects and opportunities at this year’s show

MUCH OPTIMISM,PLENTY OF HOPE MUCH OPTIMISM,PLENTY OF HOPE


being staged less than a month beforethe London Olympic Games, is com-pletely sold out and is set to accommo-date some 1,455 exhibitors from around70 countries. What remains to be seen ishow close to the tally of 120,000 expect-ed business visitors the 2012 show willattract and whether it will generate any-thing like the $47 billion worth of dealsannounced in July 2010.

Organizers have reported that the sizeof several national pavilions —including

those of Italy, France, Russia, the US,Mexico, the Czech Republic, Germanyand Switzerland — have increased insize. Overall, almost one fourth of the2012 exhibitors have enhanced theamount of space they’ve booked against2010. Also, 28 per cent of the 2012exhibitors are exhibiting for the firsttime at Farnborough.

“What this means is that over 50 percent of our customer base is upwardlydynamic, which means that they are

looking to do more business and winnew business,” said Shaun Ormrod,Chief Executive of Farnborough Interna-tional in a chat with journalists in May.

***** ****** ******There is also huge excitement at the

expansion of the UAV sector at Farnbor-ough. Thanks to the devastating impactof the drones in Pakistan’s lawless tribalareas, most countries view it as criticalto their defence preparedness. It’s now

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BRITISH ICON: Once the mainstay of the Royal Air Forces’s stategic bomber fleet, the legendary Vulcan still draws in massive crowds atthe air show

NOBLETEK.COM

mainstream and most manufacturersare likely to have a twin stream at theshow — the defence spectacle ofunmanned flights and the civil role thatdrones can play in fire fighting, lawenforcement to search and rescue.

The Unmanned Systems Showcase atFarnborough International Air show2012 is a platform for internationalmanufacturers and operators to exhibitand demonstrate their products. Farn-borough International Air show 2010launched the first-ever UAS(UnmannedAviation Systems) Indoor Flying area, ata UK aerospace exhibition which provedto be one of the most popular features ofthe show, widely attended by trade visi-tors and delegations. The UnmannedSystems Showcase returns in 2012.

Meanwhile, two companies on eitherside of the channel — Dassault Aviationand BAE Systems — are waiting for theBritish and French governments todecide whether to sign a Euro 40-milliontechnology development contract fortheir long-awaited Medium-Altitude,Long Endurance (MALE) drone. Also,MBDA is expected to unveil its next‘Future Concepts’ based on micro-munitions for UAVs.

Dassault is also waiting for the Frenchgovernment to decide whether to buy aninterim MALE drone called Voltigeurthat is a spin-off from Israel AerospaceIndustries’ Heron TP. This drone wasintended for deployment in Afghanistanbut the requirement appears less urgentnow that France has decided to with-draw its troops from that country. Itcould still be used, however, as France’scontribution to NATO’s Alliance GroundSurveillance programme, approved inMay this year.

A separate contract, worth about Euro10 million, is also expected soon to fundexploratory studies of an UnmannedCombat Air Vehicle also planned by thetwo countries.

***** ****** ******At the show, the US aerospace compa-

nies and the US military will be out inforce — with F-16, F-18E/F, C-130Js andthe V-22 all set to make an appearance.The Osprey tiltrotor will also be there.From 2013, the USAF Special Operationswill be operating the Ospreys from RAFMildenhall. The USAF will also perform


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AVIATION MECCA: The Farnborough AirShow reels in visitors from around the world

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a flypast with the iconic B-52.One important aircraft yet to appear

at an international air show is, of course,the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint StrikeFighter. While there are regular updateson the test, the training fleet deliveriesare still behind schedule. However, ifLockheed is able to persuade the Penta-gon and manage a transatlantic flightwith mid-air refuelling as well as possi-bly a back-up spare aircraft it would be abig boost not just to Lockheed but forFarnborough as well. For the Europeanpartners of the programme, it will be ashot in the arm: with the UK havingrecently returned to the F-35 STVOLvariant.

It is more or less confirmed that Air-bus Military is hoping to bring theA400M transporter to the show — it isnow undergoing functionality and relia-bility tests ahead of its first delivery atthe turn of the year. Last year, the A400was in the static line Paris air show.

Other highlights include:AIrkut will be bringing its Yak-130

trainer (Yak)AThere will be an appearance from

two of the Russian Knights Su-27(one in static, one in flying)

ASaab Gripen Athe KAI/Lockheed Martin T-50

advanced trainer. There will also be a definite ‘new

space’ feel as Virgin Galactic beginscountdown to operations with its Space-ship Two sub-orbital space plane. Therewill be a full-size mock-up of VirginGalactic’s Spaceship Two. Virgin bossRichard Branson will be there personal-ly to outline his vision and a 400-seatpavilion has been allocated for the com-pany.

The Breitling Jet Team, The Blades,RedHawks, Breitling Wingwalkers andthe RAF Red Arrows will fly over theskies of Farnborough aerodrome per-forming stunts and tricks with speedand precision that visitors always enjoy.The solo displays will also be enhancedby the first appearance of the SouthKorean Air Force T-50 jet trainer in thecolours of the Black Eagles display.

On the ground, both the past and thefuture will be demonstrated in animpressive static collection includinghistorical greats like the Breitling-spon-sored Lockheed Super Constellation,appearing in commemoration of Lock-heed Martin’s 100th anniversary, and theCatalina Flying Boat.


THE FLYING SOUK: $47 billion worth of orders were announced at the 2010 FarnboroughAir Show

The planning for Farnborough is beingfinalised and it will provide more specificinformation once the company has con-firmed details. Boeing expects that itsproducts and services highlighted at theshow will attract the interest of many ofits customers and stakeholders attendingthe show. On the defence side, Boeing hasconfirmed that the F/A-18 Super Hornetand the US Marine Corps V-22 are cur-rently scheduled to appear.

Fans of Lockheed Martin have a chanceto win a ride on a historic Lockheed C-121C Super Constellation at the show.Five lucky winners will have a seat on theairplane, when it makes a celebratoryflight from Farnborough Airport on themorning of July 10. To win a seat, onemust write an essay of not more than 250words that describes how aviation historyinfluenced your path to becoming an avi-ation enthusiast and includes a photo.You must also be a fan of Lockheed Mar-tin on Facebook or follow the companyon Twitter, which is easy enough to dobefore the entry is submitted.

Saab will have a number of its aeronauticsproducts on static display, ranging fromthe Gripen NG Demo aircraft to the Saab340 MSA, to flight displays by the GripenC. The focus is on manned, unmannedand surveillance aeronautical technology.Saab will be showcasing a number of plat-forms at the Farnborough Air Show.

These include the Gripen NG. GripenNG is the most technologically-advancedfighter aircraft in the world. The first of thenew generation, multi-role combat air-craft to enter service, Gripen NG willdeliver strategic reach, true access to thebattle arena, enhanced awareness andprecise firepower.

The Saab 340 MSA is multi-role surveil-lance aircraft for detection, classificationand identification of maritime contacts.

The Erieye AEW&C Mission System:The Erieye AEW&C Mission Systemincludes sensors, C2 and communica-tions. These are complemented by acomprehensive suite of training and sup-port systems. Farnborough Air Show isextremely important to the Saab team.This is testified by the fact that it willhave a strong contingent present at Farn-borough.

BOEING

SAAB

LOCKHEED MARTIN

SPAT

IALE

NERG

Y.COM

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About AtlasAtlas is jointly owned by ThyssenKruppMarine Systems and EADS. ThyssenK-rupp also owns HDW (Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft GmbH), which manu-factures submarines.

Atlas has three large divisions. First-ly, the submarine division — here weproduce, if you like, the “brain” and the“ears” of the submarine. The submarine

is blind effectively: it can only lis-ten, it can’t see. And it listens

through the sonar systemsthat it has. We produce the

sonar arrays, the com-mand system and wealso produce the effec-tor — which is the


“OUR PLAN IS TO CREATE A 100 PER CENT

SUBSIDIARY IN INDIA”

gGEOPO L I T I C S

gINTERVIEW

Atlas Elektronik, theGerman submarine major

with vast experience insubmarine and naval

technology, proposes tostart an Indian subsidiary

to focus on emergingopportunities.

ROHIT SRIVASTAVA spoketo KHALIL RAHMAN,

Country Head, India, about AtlasElektronik’s foray

into India

torpedo. Atlas has a complete range oftorpedo technologies. In fact, we are theonly company that has the full range oftechnologies — from the homing head atthe tip to the casket — to the fibre opticalwire-guiding system at the rear.

On the surface ships we have thesame philosophy. Atlas provides theunderwater sensors, (i.e. the sonar sys-tems), the command system and weintegrate missiles and other effectorsinto our command systems. Our UK-based subsidiary produces torpedocounter-measures or decoys. In the sur-face area, our business line is split intoanti-submarine warfare, mine counter-measures and combat systems.

In addition, we have a service divi-sion, a hydrographic company calledAtlas Hydrographic and we have a com-munications company called HagenukMarinekommunication.

On programmes in IndiaIndia has a very ambitious programme ofshipbuilding, both surface ships andsubmarines. As such, no major companycan afford to ignore the Indian market.Atlas has been present in India since the1980s approximately. We supplied ourequipment for the Shishumar-Class sub-marines, which were designed by HDW,like the combat systems, the torpedoesand the sonar systems.

The Indian Navy is currently upgradingthe existing fleet of submarines: both theGerman-origin and the Russian-originsubmarines. So, we are involved in upgrad-ing the complete suite of equipment on the

German submarines. We’ve alreadyupgraded two of the submarines. For theRussian-built Kilo class, we’re bidding forthe towed-array sonar.

These are existing platforms, but ofcourse what is interesting to a companylike Atlas are the future-build pro-grammes. There is a long-term plan toprocure another 18 conventional sub-marines, the first six of which will becalled Project 75 (India). We will be bid-ding with our shareholder HDW for Pro-ject 75 (India). When the tender willcome out and what will happen — yourguess is as good as mine — but it’s clear-ly an important programme for Atlas.

Similarly, the Navy has a large num-ber of build programmes for the surfaceships. So, frigates, destroyers, mine-hunting vessels and we have a long list ofprojects, some of the major ones that weare trying to work with are in the anti-submarine warfare (ASW) area.

Sometimes we bid directly to theNavy, sometimes to the shipyards thatwill build the ships; sometimes in part-nership with the Indian industry. So, forexample, we may partner with a publicsector undertaking (PSU) like BharatElectronics Limited (BEL) to provide ourtechnology, which will then integrate itinto its own system.

We have domain expertise in sonartechnology. We may provide buildingblocks that an Indian partner couldstitch together with an existing combatsystem that they have developed in orderto provide into a new platform or evenupgrade an existing platform.

So, the future in India, as we see it,will be very much not just the questionof us coming with a German-built prod-uct and delivering it to the Indian Navy,but building a coalition of partners herein India, that will include both the publicsector and the private sector, the ship-yards and even organisations like DRDO(Defence Research Development Organi-sation) to help the Indian industry devel-op localised solutions or solutions thatare adapted to the needs of the Indianmarket.

So those are our interests in India.The size of the market is no secret to any-one. Our plan is to create a 100 per centAtlas subsidiary in India, and this willestablish both commercial and technicalfootprints in the country. This is ongoingand should be operational within thenext few months.

We also are in the process of negoti-ating or having discussions about mem-orandums of understanding (MoUs) andpartnerships with key industry players.We have already some ongoing partner-ships. So, for example, on the portablediver detection sonar (PDDS) — we havepartnered with Larsen & Toubro.

On the PDDS programmeThe Indian Navy has a large fleet, whichmay be at threat from divers when theships are anchored. So they have a planto equip the entire fleet with a diverdetection sonar device. So you can hangit over the side of the ship and detect anymovement that is going on around theship when the ship is at anchor.


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gINTERVIEW

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LONGSTANDING ASSOCIATION: Atlassupplied equipment for the Shishumar-Classsubmarines which were designed by HDW

DPR

www.geopolitics.in


gINTERVIEW

gIt is a ‘Buy-and-Make’ India pro-

gramme. That means that the Indiancompany would be the lead — in thiscase Larsen & Toubro. The AcquisitionWing has asked for the Capability Defin-ition Document (CDD), which is the stepjust before the RFP (request for propos-al). In addition to these, we are alsointerested in all other programmeswhere our technology has an applica-tion.

On upgrades for the Kilo-class sub-marines The Indian Navy has ten Kilo-class sub-marines and it has launched an RFP fortowed sonars. We have already submittedour response.

I think another project that will be of

interest toIndia will bethe torpe-does. Atlas, asI told you earlier, owns the intellectualproperty rights (IPR) on everything fromthe tip of the torpedo to the casket. Weare in fact the only European manufac-turer that has a complete range of tech-nologies. I can say very confidently thatour heavyweight torpedo is the best tor-pedo in the world. It’s not only sailing onGerman submarines, but has also beenexported to various navies in Europe,Asia and elsewhere. The performance ofthis torpedo is clearly proven in terms ofrange, speed and reliability.

We are looking at developing part-nerships with India in order to allowIndia to develop an indigenous torpedothat integrates aspects of our technol-ogy. We have a unique technology, forexample in batteries that gives therange and speed, or in the fibre opticwire guidance systems. So we havesome really unique technologies thatwe are willing to share with India and weare talking to various partners includingthe DRDaO. How we can transfer thesetechnologies would need to be defined.

We recognise that a market and an econ-omy the size of India needs to develop itsindigenous industry and will do it. Weare not looking to provide necessarilyfinished products. Where there are gaps,immediate gaps, we are happy to do that,if the products are the requirements ofthe Navy. But we are also interested intransferring those technologies andbuilding the relationships that will allowus to be here for the long term. Sellingproducts is a short-term opportunity. Ofcourse, we are interested in it where pos-sible, but we are more interested in beinghere for the long term.

On the European marketEurope is undergoing a period of slowgrowth economically. That does notmean to say that Europe has come to acomplete standstill. We are based inGermany and the German Navy contin-ues to represent about 30 per cent of our business. The other point is thatEuropean governments fund cutting-edge projects. The Indian DPP (DefenceProcurement Procedure) requires thereto be competition; so you have to set the

technological barrier for “buy global”projects to a level where you have twocompetitors. In Europe, a governmentwill work with its local industry in thesame way the Indian government willwork with the DRDO or with BEL or withHAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limitied).Because we have subsidiaries in the UKfor example, and in Germany, we will getorders from these governments that areready to develop something completelynew, something completely innovative.And that’s very important and that’swhat allows us to stay at the leadingedge of technology.

So even if there aren’t any big ship-building programmes, like there are inIndia, there are still these kinds of devel-opment projects.

On the role in Project 75 I HDW are the platform manufacturers.Whenever you have a big programmelike that, the prime contractor will be theplatform provider — in this case HDW.

Other projectsWell the Navy itself has a number ofASW projects. An RFI (Request for Infor-mation) came out last year for shallowwater ASW craft, a small craft and I thinkit’s tendering to a number of Indianshipyards. We expect the tender shortly.So we are obviously talking directly tothe Navy and to the shipyards and toindustry partners about how best tointegrate our technologies onto theseplatforms. The torpedo defence systemhas great potential. And we are talkingdirectly with the Navy and the partnersagain.

There is a tendency in the IndianNavy to define projects more and moreeither as ‘Buy-and-Make’ Indian pro-grammes, or with technology transfer,or in some cases when we are talkingabout the platforms, to give the projectto the Indian shipyards. So it might be

that the Navy, for example, decides tospecify our technology on a maker’slist, but gives the responsibility tothe shipyard to procure. In the

same way, the prime contractorwould be HDW for the sub-marines and we will be a sub-supplier to HDW. That might bethe model that will work with

Indian shipyards in the future. It seemsto be a trend that we’re seeing increas-ingly, as it simplifies the procurementprocedure for the Navy.

ONE STOP SHOP: Atlas is one of the fewcompanies in the world that makes all thecritical components of submarines, like thisActas-towed array radar

ROHITSRIVASTAVA

THE REVELATION was madeby Maoist top-shot SadanalaRamakrishna who wasarrested in Kolkata earlierthis year. According to theofficials from the NationalInvestigation Agency (NIA),material for the productionof nearly 1,000-1,200 rocketswas seized when SadanalaRamakrishna was caught.The Maoist has disclosedthat the Naxals had manufa-cturing units in AndhraPradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar,Karnataka and West Bengal.

Sadanala also said that theMaoists had formed CentralTechnical Committee (CTC)in 2001 and the fabricationof weapons on large scalewas undertaken on sub-contract basis to a numberof lathe works companies.CTC also conducts assemblyof weapons parts andproduction of improvisedrocket launchers, in additionto repair of arms anddevelopment of pipe gunsamongst a host of othertasks.

55Gold sovereignsfound by bombdisposal squad IN AN unclaimed bag atChennai airport. The bagcaused panic at the airportcar park after lyingunattended for more than anhour. The airport manager

called the bomb squad afteran alert head constablealerted the authorities to thepresence of the unclaimedbaggage. The airportmanager also announced thepresence of the bag over thepublic announcementsystem at the airport. Afterthe police arrived withsniffer dogs and cordonedoff the area the bombdisposal squad discoveredthe gold coins in the bag.

July 2012

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21 LandminesrecoveredTHE LANDMINES wererecovered from the Kurung-Ganeshpur path in Latehardistrict of Jharkhand in ananti-Maoist operation. Thetarget of the landmineappeared to be security forcesas they were planted on theroute used by them. Themines ranged in size from oneto ten kilos and the securityforces found the first 10-kiloimprovised explosive device inthe vicinity of a well in theregion.

7142Rank ofIndia on GlobalPeace Index

THE COUNTRY’S rank in 2011was 137 while Pakistan is nowat 149 out of 158 countries thatwere ranked in the list. On topof the list is Iceland, onceagain ranked the most peace-ful country in the world, fol-lowed by Denmark and NewZealand. At the bottom of thelist is Somalia, ranked the leastpeaceful country at 158th posi-tion. For the first time sincethe GPI rankings began, theMiddle-East and North Africahave displaced Sub-SaharanAfrica as the least peacefulregion in the world.

Naxal armouries exist

According to a report in the Deccan Herald,efforts are being made to push the militantsundergoing training in Pakistan-occupiedKashmir (PoK) over the Line of Control intothe Kashmir Valley. According to mediareports, the Krishna Ghati in the Poonchregion has been identified as an “extremelyvulnerable” neighbourhood for infiltration.Consequently, security forces have beentold to increase patrolling in the region. Themilitants' handlers across the border aresaid to be troubled by the fact that in spiteof concerted efforts by them, they have notbeen able to sneak in militants into India

during the summer, traditionally the besttime for infiltration. In a sign of normalcyreturning to the Kashmir Valley, this sum-mer has witnessed a very successful touristseason with a large number of visitors tour-

ing the state.

50 Ultras being trained in PoK

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July 2012

THE BASTAR youthbraved a Maoistprohibitory order inKanker district, 200 kmsouth of Raipur, one of theworst-affected regions insouth Chhattisgarh, to tryand join the Indian Army.Army officials werepleasantly surprised at theturnout in spite of the

discovery of Maoist literature warning the locals against attending thesix-day recruitment rally. The Maoists had warned people in sevendistricts to stay away from the recruitment camp and printedpamphlets asking people to boycott it. The Army has been recruitingup to 300 candidates from Chhattisgarh in every six-month cycle.

2,000Soldiers commit suicide

A RECENT research carried by Prof Bashir Ahmad Dabla, head of the So-ciology department of Kashmir University, revealed a sharp rise in sui-

cides in the Army and other para-military forces deployed in thestate. According to the study, a majority of the soldiers who

committed suicides were married and the preferredmethod was the use of the service weapon. The re-

search revealed a slightly higher number of sui-cides by personnel from the southern states. Whileunofficial estimates put the total number of sui-

cides in the region between 7,000 and 20,000 in 20years, Professor Dabla’s research done from 2009 to

2011 revealed the armed forces share to be around2,000 cases. Denial of leave, stress related to counter-insur-

gency and altercations among personnel were the leading causes of suicides.

Tribal youth turn up forrecruitment

26

3,000

New roads on India-China border

ACCORDING TO a disclo-sure to the Parliament'sPublic Accounts Commit-tee by the Defence Min-istry, squatters have beenon defence-owned land forthe past 20 years. To shoreup its case, the Ministry isrecording, updating andmicrofilming documentsrelating to the land. Alsounder review are leasesthat have either run out orunder dispute. Over 17lakh acres of land areunder the direct posses-sion of the defence estab-lishment.

12,000Acres encroached

DEFENCE MINISTER A K Antonyhas given 'in principle' approval tothe project that amounts to a three-fold hike from the current `50crore. The decision to hike thebudget was taken at a meeting ofthe Defence Minister with the threeservice chiefs and Defence Secre-tary Shashikant Sharma. In the light

of the present security scenario, the Defence Minister also reviewedthe overall training and operational activities of the armed forces.

150Crore approved for Service Headquarters

WORK ON roads has startedto provide better connectivi-ty to regions on the sensitiveeastern border. The newroads — 804 km in length —will cost `1,934 crore. Thenew roads will be critical tothe operations of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP)and so the MHA (Ministry ofHome Affairs) has beenpushing for their speedyconstruction. As these roadspass through ecologically-sensitive areas, the Ministryof Environment and Forestshad some objections, butthese have since been large-ly sorted out. The founda-tion work of 462 km-longroads has been completedand surfacing work on a158-km-long stretch has alsobeen accomplished. A two-phase plan has been madeby the Centre for the con-struction of roads on theIndia-Pakistan and India-China borders for speedymovement of troops andassociated equipment.


THE LIGHT Combat Aircraft (LCA)project was proposed in 1983 byDRDO (Defence Research Devel-opment Organisation) as an F-16-class lightweight fighter

designed to replace the Indian Air Force’s(IAF’s) MiG-21 fighter variants.

It was an exciting and ambitious projectthat stirred pride amidst young IAF fighterpilots already buoyed by the recent induc-tion of Jaguars, after years of operating theearly 60s vintage fighters. The Jaguar deal,which included local assembly of the air-craft, was a landmark event because it end-ed India’s isolation from the West and heavydependence on all equipment Soviet. Thedeal allowed India to catch up with westernfighter technology and tactics.

No more were IAF fighter pilots confinedto just reading about inertial navigationsystems, moving map displays, head-up

July 2012

SEA WARRIOR: LCA Navy is the second STOBAR (SkiTake Off But Arrested Recovery) carrier borne aircraft inthe world, after the Russian deck-based aircraft

Conceived 30 years ago,the Light Combat Aircraftprogramme, for which thecountry has spent about`10,000 crore, appears likea crawling anddisappointing affairsuperficially, but on closerscrutiny, it is a greatsuccess story, writes VIJAINDER K THAKUR

A DREAM COME

TRUE?

gGEOPO L I T I C S

gCOVERSTORY

displays and laser-guided weapons increw room magazines; they could actu-ally fly an aircraft that had them. Equal-ly important was the opportunity tointeract with RAF pilots and imbibe tac-tics suited for electronics-packed plat-forms like the Jaguar, thanks to thetraining programmes that werethoughtfully negotiated as part of theJaguar deal.

Having assimilated Jaguar technolo-gy, it appeared logical for the IAF andHindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)to forge ahead and build a local designand manufacturing capability. The LCAwas the logical conclusion. In 1984, inorder to fast-track the development ofthe LCA, the government set up theAeronautical Development Agency(ADA) with the Scientific Adviser (SA) tothe Defence Minister as its DirectorGeneral. The SA also served as a Secre-tary to the Government of India (GoI) —that would give him clout to clearbureaucratic bottlenecks.

The ambitious goal was to deliver afully-tested, production-ready versionof the aircraft within 10 years — that isby 1994. The IAF went along with the

dream and firmed up its air staffrequirements in 1985. The GoI sanc-tioned the project in 1986 and projectdefinition started in 1987.

Project kickoffBold and ambitious projects tend to

be risky endeavours. The Jaguar dealgave us access to a lot of technology,but not all that would go into buildingthe LCA. And these included fly-by-wire, use of composites, multi-functiondisplays and micro-processor-basedmonitoring and control of mechanicalsystems. Besides, there were sanctionson technology-transfer from the West-ern countries, even though the DRDOoverstated capabilities and glossed overchallenges. By 1990, the ADA came outwith the design of the LCA and toldMOD (Ministry of Defence) that itwould take seven years to develop it!

The LCA was conceived and devel-oped as a fourth-generation aircraftwith

Fly-by-wire flight control systemsfor increased redundancy andlighter weightRelaxed Static Stability for increasedperformanceGlass cockpit incorporating the lat-est all-digital open architectureavionics systems with integratedhead-up display, multi-function dis-plays and helmet-mounted display

Advanced composite materials

for the airframeComputer-based control of all elec-tro-mechanical systems for safehandling through the entire enve-lope of the aircraft and engine.

As part of the LCA project, the gov-ernment also sanctioned the indige-nous development of the Kaveri engineto power the aircraft on March 30, 1989,with a Probable Date of Completion(PDC) of December 31, 1996. The PDChas since been revised several timesand the Kaveri project has since beendelinked from the LCA project.

The government cleared the FullScale Engineering Development (FSED)of the LCA in two phases in 1990. InPhase 1, two technology demonstratoraircraft (TD-1 and TD-2) were to bebuilt and test flown as proof-of-con-cept. In Phase 2, additional prototypeaircraft were to be built to speed up theflight-test programme leading to InitialOperational Clearance for use in theIAF.

Phase 1 started in 1991 and the TD-1rolled out on November 17, 1995, fol-lowed by TD-2 in 1998. However, theaircraft remained grounded due totechnical problems in flight control sys-tems and structural deficiencies. Theprogramme faced a further setbackafter the US imposed sanctions follow-ing India’s May 1998 nuclear tests.

The tests immediately ended US helpin developing the Fly-By-Wire (FBW )

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(45)July 2012

DRDO

Flight Control System (FCS) for theLCA. National Aeronautical Laborato-ry Control Law (CLAW ) team, whichwas developing the FBW FCS in theUS, was literally asked to pack its bagsand return to India overnight. Alsoimpacted were ADA’s efforts to devel-op carbon brakes, flight control actua-tors, composite materials, DFCC (Dig-ital Flight Control Computers).

The delay caused by the US sanc-tions ultimately proved to be a bless-

ing in disguise because it challengedDRDO scientists and gave a major fil-lip to indigenisation. The first Tech-nology Demonstrator aircraft TD-1successfully flew in January 2001, fol-lowed by TD-2 in July 2002.

In the first week of May 2003, the

then Prime MinisterAtal Behari Vajpayeewitnessed both the tech-nology demonstrators (TD-1 and TD-2) flying together,after which he christenedLCA as “Tejas”.

The LCA crossed thesound barrier for the firsttime on August 1, 2003. Digitalfly-by-wire control system for theproduction versions of the aircraftwas fully developed by 2003. The tech-nology development phase for the air-craft was completed in March 2004.

Based on the successful first flightof the TD-1 in 2001, the governmentgave a go-ahead for Phase 2 of FSED inNovember 2001. The PDC for Phase 2was set at December 31, 2008, with theTejas expected to obtain Initial Opera-tional Clearance (IOC) by the year2005-2006. The PDC has since beenrevised to December 31, 2012.

Phase 2 involved building andflight-testing five PrototypeVehicles (PV1 to PV5),with PV4 being theNaval variant

and PV5 a two-seat trainer version. ThePV series aircraft would join TD-1 andTD-2 in the flight testing programme.All the aircraft earmarked for the flighttest programme, except PV4, were fly-ing by November 26, 2009, when theLCA Trainer PV5 took to the skies.

To ensure a smooth, efficient andtimely transfer of technology from thedesign agency ADA to the productionagency, HAL, MoD placed an order for

eight LimitedSeries Production (LSP) air-craft built to IOC standards on HAL.The LSP aircraft will eventually entersquadron service.

LSP-1 flew for the first time on April25, 2007, and LSP-7 on March 9,

2012. LSP-6 is yet to fly. It is beingrigged up as a test vehicle for highangle of attack testing.

It may be noted that as the Tejasevolved, it put on nearly 1.5 tonnemore weight than it was designed for.In January 2009 ADA sought assistancefrom European defence major EADS toredesign the Tejas undercarriage andhelp reduces the weight of the fighter.It also sought help for fuel distribu-tion, uneven braking, flight controls,environmental controls and testing.EADS is now helping ADA get finaloperational clearance for the LCATejas under a $20-million contract.

IAF involvement The IAF became actively involved inthe LCA programme around 2007when it stationed a team of experi-enced officers in Bengaluru to overseethe induction of the aircraft into theservice. The team helped ADA in oper-ationalising the aircraft, converting itfrom a test bed maintained by scien-tists, to an aircraft that could be main-tained by less qualified personnel at

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1998Programme faces set-back after US imposes

sanctions after Indian nu-clear tests

1991Phase 1 starts and the TD-1 rolls out in1995, followed by TD-2 in 1998

1983Light Combat Aircraft projectproposed as an F-16-class

lightweight fighter and goal setto deliver a production-readyversion aircraft by 1994

1986GoI sanctions project, project

definition starts in 1987

1989Kaveri engine to power LCAsanctioned, with a Probable

Date of Completion (PDC) set atDecember 31, 1996

1983

2014

1990ADA comes out withthe LCA design and

gives MoD seven-yeartime frame, Governmentclears the Full Scale Engineering Development(FSED) of LCA in twophases

www.geopolitics.in

air bases. The team also coordinated thetransfer of technology between the ADAand HAL. The presence of the IAF teamalso reiterated the IAF’s commitment tothe programme, which had lost somemomentum because of delays in itsimplementation on account of techno-logical challenges.

Performance shortfallsBy 2010, it became evident to the IAF thatthe aircraft was still short on certain key air staff requirements. Thesewere:

Power to Weight

RatioSustained Turn RateMaximum speeds at low altitudesAngle of Attack (AOA) rangeWeapon-delivery profiles

Performance shortfall, like sustainedturn rate and maximum low-levelspeed, can only be remedied throughthe use of a more powerful engine, andthe IAF has reconciled to wait for LCAMk2 powered by the GE F414 INS-6engine.

However, the IAF considered theflight envelope (AOA and G-Limit)expansion and clearance of weapondelivery profiles essential for inductionof the aircraft. Since increasing the AOArange and G-limit of the aircraft andclearing it for more weapon deliveryprofiles would require more develop-ment and testing, the IAF agreed togrant provisional IOC to the aircraft sothat HAL could start manufacturing anddelivery of the first lot of 20 productionstandard aircraft.

Tejas was granted provisional InitialOperation Clearance on January 10,2011 at a ceremony at HAL Airport inBengaluru during which Defence Minis-ter AK Antony handed over the IOC cer-tificate to Air Force Chief Air Chief Mar-shal PV Naik. “This is only the semi-final,” Antony cautioned ADA noting

that the aircraft delivered must be safeto fly but without the concession onperformance.

Following IOC-1, theTejas’s developmentand flight testing

focused on elimi-nating IOC shortfalls,

including expansion ofthe AOA range of the aircraft

and clearance for release ofmore weapons. IOC-2 is now

expected to be attained in a month ortwo. In November 2011, DRDO said ithad made progress in expanding theaircraft’s AOA range. Also, additionalweapon trials were successfully com-pleted in Jaisalmer and Goa. In May2012, the DRDO chief expressed confi-dence that the IAF would be able toraise its first Tejas squadron by the endof the year.

At the time of IOC-1, the Tejas wasexpected to get “Final OperationalClearance”(FOC) by December 2012,after which HAL was to start productionat the rate of 10 aircraft a year.

The first squadron was to be deliv-ered to the IAF by the end of 2014 andthe second squadron by 2016. But theproduction has been now resheduled.The Tejas is now expected to get its FOCin the middle of 2014.

Planned inductionIn March 2006, the IAF placed an orderon HAL for supply of 20 Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) in Initial

Operational Clearance (IOC) con-figuration, along with support equip-ment.

While placing the initial order, IAFindicated that it would order an addi-tional 20 aircraft once Final OperationalClearance was obtained for the aircraftin squadron service, bringing the totalpurchase to 40 aircraft. However, theIAF placed an order for an additional 20Tejas Mk 1 aircraft in January 2011,shortly before the aircraft received theIOC. The initial 40 Tejas aircraft areplanned to be powered by the GE 404.

LCA Tejas Mk-2In September 2008, it was announcedthat the Kaveri would not be ready intime for the Tejas to give it a perform-ance boost, and that an alternativepower plant would have to be selected.The re-engined LCA would be referredto as LCA Tejas Mk-2. Later, it wasannounced that the LCA Tejas Mk2would be powered by the F414-GE-INS6engine with a max thrust of 22,000 lbf,as compared to the 19,000 lbf maxthrust of the F404-GE-IN20.

Airframe modificationsMinor modifications are being made tothe LCA Tejas Mk1 airframe to accom-modate the slightly larger engine. Thefuselage has been extended by 500mm.The dimensions of Mk2 will be:Span: 8.20mLength: 13.70mHeight: 4.52m

UpgradesBesides a more powerful engine, TejasMk-2 will feature additional improve-ments like:

Reduced Structural WeightImproved AerodynamicsUpgraded of Flight Control Comput-erImproved Electronic Warfare SuiteImproved AvionicsIn-flight Refuelling RetractableProbeOn-board Oxygen Generation Sys-temIncreased fuel capacity.Fuel Dump SystemImproved Maintainability

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2001First Technology Demonstrator air-craft TD-1 flies followed by

TD-2 in July 2002

2003The then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vaj-payee christens LCA as “Tejas”, LCA

crosses sound barrier

2014ExpectedFOC of Tejas

The combination of increased thrust,weight reduction measures andimproved aerodynamics is expected togive the Tejas Mk 2 an outstanding per-formance and close combat manoeu-vrability, despite the weight gained as aresult of fuselage extension to fit theengine. The Tejas Mk.2 is scheduled tomake its first flight in 2014, with full-rateproduction to follow two years later.

LCA NavyThe MoD sanctioned Full Scale Engi-neering Development (FSED) of a Navalvariant of the Tejas, capable of operat-ing from an aircraft carrier, on March28, 2003, with a PDC of March 27, 2010.The PDC has since been revised toDecember 27, 2014. The LCA-Navy isbased on the Tejas Mk-1/Tejas Mk-2being developed for the IAF. It is beingdeveloped to be compatible with thetwo INS Vikrant-class indigenous air-craft carriers being built in Cochin. It isrequired to be capable of:

Taking off using a 14-degree skijump with 200 m deck run.Landing in 90 m using an arresterhook.Sustaining longitudinal decelera-tion of 4.5 g.

Once developed, LCA Navy will bethe only carrier-borne aircraft in the

light category in the world and the second STOBAR (Ski Take Off ButArrested Recovery) carrier-borne air-craft in the world, after the Russiandeck-based aircraft.

LCA Navy featuresLCA Navy involves a 15 per centredesign of the LCA. The new featuresinclude:

Arrestor hook Drooped nose for better cockpit vis-ibilityLEVCONS and fore plane to reducelanding speedAuxiliary air-intakesS t r e n g t h e n e dundercarriage

and fuselageAuto throttle to reduce pilot load bymaintaining constant angle ofattack during the critical phase of aflare-less carrier landingFuel Dump System enables safelanding by reducing weight in eventof an emergency landing immedi-ately after launch from carrier.

Maximum T/O from a carrier will berestricted to 12.5 tonnes, with the maxexternal load being reduced to 3.5tonnes. The aircraft is required to per-form a flareless landing and absorb a sinkrate of up to 7.1 rn/sec, and on touch-down engage full throttle till arrested bydeck cable. As a result, the main landinggear of the aircraft experiences a loadthat is five times the load experienced bythe IAF version during landing. The rapiddeceleration following arrestor cableengagement, imposes high axial load onthe aircraft, necessitating re-certificationof all Line Replacement Units (LRUs),components and associated systems toensure repeated fail safe operation.

Two-phased developmentThe aircraft is being developed in twophases. Phase 1: The LCA Navy aircraft will be

developed from LCA Mk 1, which willbe modified to take off using


gCOVERSTORY

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Tejas Mk-1 Features

Powerplant 1xF404-GE-IN20

Thrust (Dry) 54.9 kN (12,250 lbs)

Thrust (Afterburner) 85 kN (19,000 lbs)

Internal fuel capacity 2458 kg

External fuel capacity

2x1200 litre DT on inboard pylons 1x725 litre DT underbelly

Radar ELTA EL/M 2032 Hybrid AESA radar

Weight (Empty) 6,560 kg

Weight (Max Take off) 13,300 kg

AS THE TEJAS EVOLVED,

IT PUT ON NEARLY 1.5 TONMORE WEIGHTTHAN IT WAS

DESIGNED FOR

gCOVERSTORY

ga ski jump and perform an arrestedlanding. During this phase, ADA initial-ly planned to develop one twin- seatertrainer (NP1) and one fighter (NP2),along with Shore Based Test Facility(SBTF) at Goa.

In May 2012, DRDO announced that athird aircraft would be built as part ofPhase 1 development to speed up theprocess of certification. The third aircrafthas been designated NP5, because thedesignations NP3 & NP4 are already ear-marked for the two prototypes being builtfor Phase 2 development. ADA is yet todecide whether NP5 will be a trainer orfighter. The three Phase 1 prototypeswould serve as Technology Demonstratorsto prove Aircraft Carrier Compatibility.Phase 2: The LCA Navy will be certifiedfor carrier operations using two aircraft(NP3 & NP4) built in the Tejas Mk2 con-figuration, powered by F414-GE-INS6engine with a maximum thrust of 22,000lbs. Only Phase 2 aircraft will participatein carrier operation certification, withPhase 1 aircraft being reserved exclu-sively for SBTF operations.

Project progressThe NP1 was rolled out by the DefenceMinister AK Antony from HindustanAeronautics Limited (HAL) AircraftResearch in Bengaluru on July 6, 2010.

The NP1 made its maiden flight on April27, 2012, flying for 20 minutes with itsundercarriage extended.

Following its first flight, NP1 willundergo additional flight testing at Ben-galuru for six to eight months beforebeing flown to INS Hansa near Goa, fortesting with the Shore Based Test Facili-ty (SBTF), comprising a ski-jump andarresting gear, being constructed usingequipment from Russia.

Carrier Compatibility TestsThe SBTF at Goa simulates a carrierdeck with a ski jump for take-off,arrestor cables for landing and the opti-cal system for approach alignment andflareout. Before a full-arrested landingtakes place, taxi-engagement and carri-

er-style approaches with the hookextended will take place. The LCA Navyprototypes are expected to completetheir aircraft carrier compatibility trialsby 2014 and achieve Initial OperationalClearance.

Limited Series Production (LSP) orderIn February 2012, the Defence Acquisi-tion Council approved Limited SeriesProduction (LSP) of eight LCA-Navalaircraft by Hindustan Aeronautics Lim-ited (HAL). The eight fighters will be amix of single-seat fighters and twin-seattrainers. The LSP aircraft will be usedfor flight testing of the aircraft throughits entire envelope and eventual finaloperational clearance (FOC).

Induction in Indian NavyThe LCA-Navy inducted into service willbe based on the re-engined LCA Mk 2since the GE 404-IN20-powered Mk 1does not have the reserve of powerrequired for carrier deck operations. Oninduction into the Indian Navy, LCA-Navy is likely to be renamed.

LCA Navy development challengesAt the roll-out of the first Naval LCANP1 at Bengaluru on July 6, 2010, ADADirector, Dr P S Subrahmanyam saidthe aircraft still needed to shed 400 kg


Weight (Operational Clean) 9,800 kg

Length 13.2 m

Wing Span 8.2 m

Height 4.4 m

Wing Area 38.4 sq m

Maximum Speed 1350 kph CAS

Service Ceiling 15000 m

Air-to-Air Missiles CCM/BVR

THE NEED FOR ALOW-COST,

LIGHT-WEIGHT MANNED FIGHTER

ISN'T LIKELY TODISAPPEAR FOR ATLEAST 20-30 YEARS

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and the landing gear had to be perfect-ed. The need for the LCA to be able toabsorb sink rates of up to 7.1 m/s is aMilitary Specification (Mil Spec)requirement. During routine opera-tions, typical touchdown verticalspeeds would be 3 to 4 m/s. At onepoint ADA sought a concession on thestringent Mil Spec requirement fromthe Indian Navy to check the weight spi-ral of the aircraft, but the Navy stuck tothe requirement in order to cater to sit-uations such as pilot misjudgmentunder adverse visibility conditionswhile landing immediately after takeoffwith full fuel and weapons load.

It is worth noting that the LCA Navy/LCA Mk 2 will be able to jettison fuel inthe air in case the aircraft has to landshortly after take off, to reduce touch-down weight. However, jettisoning fueltakes time; in some conceivable situa-tions, there may not be enough time.

In May 2012, Aviation Week magazinereported that strengthening of the rearairframe and undercarriage for carrieroperations, and addition of an arrestorhook, have made the aircraft about1,000 pounds overweight. An IndianNavy official told the magazine, “Thenaval variant of the LCA will require theF414 Enhanced Performance Engine[EPE] providing up to 26,500 pounds ofthrust, a 20-per cent boost.” The F414 isstill under development.

The bottom line Nearly 30 years after it was proposedand 20 years after a project go-ahead,the LCA has still not been inducted intothe IAF — a damning fact, but onlywhen read out of context. In terms oftechnology development, the project isalready an outstanding success. Thecountry has mastered FBW FCS withunstable aerodynamics, use of compos-ites for weight and RCS reduction, com-puter-based control of electro-mechan-ical systems, open architecture avionicswith glass cockpit, head-up display andhelmet-mounted sighting.

Equally important, the country nowhas the infrastructure to develop andtest technologies that go into a modernfighter aircraft. And thanks to the LCA,

the country will never need tobuild a fighter from scratch!

The LCA does have a lot of potential.It is easy to handle. There is some differ-ence of opinion amongst IAF fighterpilot as to which of its two fighters,Jaguar and Mirage 2000, is the easierone to fly. But there is unanimity thatthe Tejas handles better than both!

Before the first Tejas trainer, PV5,took to the skies on November 26, 2009,LCA test pilots were required to fly foursorties on the Mirage-2000 before flyingthe LCA. “While the Mirage 2000 is adelight to fly, the LCA handles better,” aformer LCA test pilot told Geopolitics.LCA’s easy handling is “a big tribute tothe CLAW (Control Law) team, probablythe most professional of all the groupsthat work on the LCA programme,” headded.

Tejas’ avionics — MFDs, helmetmounted sight and laser Pod — comple-ment its capable FBW system to makethe fighter an absolute delight to fly.The LCA Mk1 has a wing loading that issignificantly lower than that of the MiG-21 Bis / Bison which it would be replac-ing. It also has a better Thrust to Weight(T/W ) ratio, even with the 19,000 lbfmax thrust F404-GE-IN20.

All else beingequal, Tejasshould perform

better in “Fightwithin Visual” (WVR) com-

bat than the MiG-21. Despite its some-what larger size, LCA will likely have alower RCS than the MiG, because of theextensive use of composites, shaping

and use of radar absorbentpaint. Add to that the

better capability of theLCA’s ELTA EL/M 2032 Hybrid

AESA and better weapon fit, and youend up with an aircraft that will likelybe significantly better in Beyond VisualRange (BVR) combat.

Assuming AOA and G limitations willbe overcome, HAL support will be worldclass and the aircraft lives up to its cur-rent flight safety record, the Mk 1 couldwell turn out to be an aircraft that theIAF drools over. The promise of the Mk2with the 22,000 lbf F404-GE-INS6engine may well be an incentive for theIAF to induct the LCA before shortfallsin LCA flight envelope are completelyeliminated. It may be noted that LCAMk2 is the fighter that the IAF reallywants. The MK2 was proposed onlyafter the Mk1 came short on Air StaffRequirements.

The importance of the Tejas also liesin the fact that the need for a low-cost,light-weight manned fighter isn’t likelyto disappear for at least 20-30 yearsdespite advances in Unmanned Air Sys-tems. Since it’s a home-grown fighter,ADA will be able to continuously tweakand upgrade the LCA to keep it relevantover the next two to three decades,improving flight characteristics andelectronics by leveraging technologicaladvances.

The author was a young Jaguar pilotwhen the LCA was proposed anddreamt of flying it one day. The author’sdream didn’t come true, but the nation’sdream has come true. The LCA projectis an unstoppable success. The chal-lenge now is not to develop the technol-ogy, but to leverage it to the hilt withprivate sector involvement.

(The author is a former fighter pilot)

gCOVERSTORY

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www.geopolitics.in

IN 2009, ADASOUGHT

ASSISTANCE FROM EADS TO

REDESIGN THE TEJAS

UNDERCARRIAGE

INTERNAL SECURITY

geopoliticsIT

BP

HOMELAND SECURITY HOMELAND SECURITY Can the private sector play a role?

Dreaded Maoist Naveen Manjhi wasarrested in Jharkhand recently.Manjhi and his fiancé who is also atop-level Naxalite were picked upfrom the Gidhania forest inVishnugarh. Manjhi, carried a `10-lakh reward on his head.

Ranvir Sena founder BrahmeshwarSingh was killed by motorcycle-borne assailants in Bihar recently.Ranvir Sena was the private militiaallegedly responsible for killing morethan 250 in clashes with theNaxalites of the region.

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B R I E F SISINTERNAL SECURITY

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www.geopolitics.in

ACCORDING TO AREPORT IN THETIMES OF INDIA, IN ABID TO THWART ANYPOTENTIAL CYBERATTACK AGAINSTINDIANESTABLISHMENTS,THE NATIONALSECURITY COUNCIL(NSC) IS ALL SET TOENDORSE ACOMPREHENSIVEPLAN ANDDESIGNATE THEDEFENCEINTELLIGENCEAGENCY (DIA) ANDNATIONALTECHNICALRESEARCHORGANISATION(NTRO) AS THESPEARHEADS OFINDIA’S CYBERATTACK. ALTHOUGHPERMISSION WOULDBE GIVEN TO OTHERAGENCIES TOGATHERINFORMATION FROMABROAD, ONLY THESETWO WOULD HAVETHE MANDATE TOCARRY OUTOFFENSIVEACTIVITIES. HEADEDBY PRIME MINISTERMANMOHAN SINGH,THE NATIONALSECURITY COUNCILIS LIKELY TOSANCTION THECOMPREHENSIVEPLAN SOON.

INDIA PREPARESFOR CYBER WARFARE

GROMFROG.COM

July 2012

The Home Ministry has nixed the'one-nation-one-number' provisionof the Telecom department for J&Kand the North-East for securityreasons. The 'one-nation-one-number' provision exempts usersfrom paying roaming charges underthe National Telecom Policy.

SECURITY HAS BEEFED UPALONG THEINTERNATIONAL BORDERWITH NEPAL FOLLOWINGTHE SPLIT IN THE MAOISTRANKS IN THE HIMALAYANSTATE. THE CENTRE HASSENT OUT AN ALERT ANDASKED THE BORDER-GUARDING FORCES IN THESTATES OF UTTARAKHAND,UTTAR PRADESH, BIHAR,WEST BENGAL AND SIKKIMTO INTENSIFY THEIRPATROLLING ALONG THEPERIMETER. AFTER THESCHISM IN THE MAOISTRANKS THE SASHASTRASEEMA BAL (SSB) HASBEEN DIRECTED TOPREVENT VIOLENCEALONG THE 1751-KMINTERNATIONAL BORDERAND STOP CROSS-BORDERMOVEMENT. THE SSBGUARDS 450 BORDER OUTPOSTS (BOPS) ON THEINDIA-NEPAL BORDERAND 25 OF ITS BATTALIONSHAVE ALREADY BEENDEPLOYED AS A BULWARKAGAINST ANY SECURITYPROBLEM AND AS A CHECKAGAINST ANTI-NATIONALACTIVITIES.

SECURITY ALERT ON INDIA-NEPAL

BORDER

The national Crime and CriminalTracking Network System (CCTNS)has missed the March 2012 deadlinefor a national network and hasreceived an extension of three moreyears. It will permit real-timesharing of data between the 6,000police headquarters and more than

14,000 police stations in India.

AWAZ

PLUS

.COM

MISSED

KILLED

SSB

MILESTONES TO

PNEW

S.IN

UNSE

TTLE

DCIT

Y.WOR

DPRE

SS.C

OM

ARRESTED

ORDERED The National Investigation Agency(NIA) has been ordered by a Delhicourt to produce before it is the26/11 mastermind Pakistani-American David Coleman Headleyand others for allegedly carrying outterror strikes in India. The NIA haslimited access to Headley who is inthe custody of American authorities.

OBJECTIONS

LASI

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IN SPITE of thecrackdown by theBangladeshgovernment, reportsindicate that militantgroups, particularly thegroups from Manipur,are active in campsalong the border. Therecent arrest ofmilitants by the BorderSecurity Force (BSF)established that theNorth-East ultras stillhave bases in the area.While factions of theUnited Liberation Frontof Asom (ULFA) havecamps in theBangladesh-Myanmarborder areas, Manipur,militants have camps inthe Moulvi Bazar area.The Chittagong HillTracts are also beingused for transit by theother militants from theNorth-East. TheMyanmaresegovernment had set aJune 10 deadline forclosing down camps onits border with Indiaand the Indian securityforces, incuding theArmy and the AssamRifles, are bracing for anexpected exodus ofmilitants from theseregions. Extra forceshad been positionedalong the Manipur-Myanmar border tocheck the flight ofmilitants into India.

NE MILITANTS INBANGLADESH,

MYANMAR

TVARAJ.FILES.WORDPRESS.COM

THE UNION Cabinet hasapproved the allocation forthe National IntelligenceGrid (NATGRID) for seamlessflow of information from avariety of sources. Accordingto Home Minister PChidambaram, the CabinetCommittee on Security,chaired by PM ManmohanSingh, gave its nod for thepurchase of certaintechnological itemsmentioned in the DetailedProject Report. The rationalebehind the NATGRID was tocollate information from 21organisations, including thebanking and insurancesectors and railways togather data that could pointto security threats. The datacan then be accessed by theIntelligence Bureau andincome tax authoritiesamong a total of 11 otheragencies. Conceptualisedafter the 2008 Mumbai terrorattacks, it was conceived tomake information sharing bysecurity and lawenforcement agencies.

EVEN AS the Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BCAS) warnedairlines of human bombs, isolated airfields across the nationremain easy targets for terrorists. According to a report in TheTimes of India, pilots who operate in remote airfields havecomplained of slack security. Corporate clients and politiciansuse these airfields to reach remote areas of the country whichmay not even be fenced or even equipped with basic facilitieslike X-ray machines or navigational and technical support.

According to the report, policemen at these airstrips are neither duty-bound nor equipped tosecure these facilities. A majority of these remote airstrips, with lengths ranging between 3,000and 9,000 ft, were built during World War II to serve military needs, but are now owned byeither private parties, the Airports Authority of India, or by the state governments. The dangerlies not just in their lack of infrastructure but also the fact that there are no pre-or post-flightchecks. Terrorists could use the airfields to transport arms and ammunition or even fakeIndian currency notes to different parts of the country with impunity.

NATGRID TO GET`1100CR THE DEPARTMENT of Telecom (DoT) has been asked by

the Ministry of Home Affairs to issue a fresh warning onreporting and return of “off-the-air” snooping devices.Even a year after the previous warning there has beenlittle compliance and some of the equipment is stillreported missing. The reasons for the fresh directive is adisclosure by the Haryana police that two firms, EricssonIndia and ZTE Telecom located in Gurgaon, were unawareof the location of two such devices. The Department ofRevenue Intelligence has declared that since 2008, morethan 1,100 GSM and CDMA snooping devices have beenimported. All equipment importers — including lawenforcement authorities — were issued the first notice bythe DoT in December 2010 to report these passiveinterception devices “within 60 days” or face prosecutionand imprisonment.

SNOOPING DEVICES MISSING

ACCORDING TO a report by the National InvestigationAgency (NIA),the Naxals arein theconcludingstep of “fine-tuning and

calibrating” technology to assemble rocket-launchers.The Maoists have reportedly spent `40 crore over adozen years to obtain expertise for manufacturingrocket launchers. The NIA says that the Naxals intend touse the rockets against the Army — that has planned toset up jungle warfare schools in the Naxal-dominatedareas — as well as the paramilitary forces. Securityforces speculate that the Naxals have hidden away therocket launchers in Chhattisgarh and Karjat inMaharashtra.

SUND

T.COM

NAXALS’ ROCKET LAUNCHERS

DESOLATE AIRFIELDS EASY TARGETS

PIB

INDO

LINKE

NGLIS

H.W

ORDP

RESS

.COM

www.geopolitics.in


FOUR DAYS prior to the Septem-ber 7, 2011 blast outside theDelhi High Court, the Intelli-gence Bureau (IB), India’s primedomestic intelligence agency,

generated an input about a terror plot inthe national capital. The input spokeabout a plot involving four persons fromKarachi, Srinagar, Jammu and Delhi thatmight result in “some violent activity” inthe national capital. All that the ‘alert’mentioned was four names and an atypi-cal money trail that started from Srinagarand ended in Delhi. Bereft of any details,the input made little sense to the policeestablishment, who were tasked withpreventing the “violent activity”. Theblast claimed 14 lives and left at least 88persons injured. Home Minister P Chi-dambaram rued in the Parliament thatthe Delhi Police could not prevent theattack in spite of an intelligence alerthaving been shared with it, therebyallowing the media to go berserk lam-pooning the police incapacity. The truth,however, was that the so-called ‘input’was no way sufficient to enable anypolice action leading to the busting of theterror plot.

The above narrative is certainly not anisolated case. A common and recurrentcomplaint by the police officers on dutyis that on most occasions, the inputslanding on their tables are generic andtheoretical in nature. These one-pagealerts generated almost on a daily basisby the multiplicity of agencies on theground level may appear impressive to arecord keeper, but in operational terms,it is plain unusable trash.

This leads us to find answers to critical

questions: What are the challenges forintelligence gathering in India? Is it aproblem of capacity, systemic oversightor something else? As India adds bricks toits counter-terror architecture each pass-ing day, what are the areas that needattention and what are the chances thatthe existing loopholes can be pluggedwith the ongoing projects?

This condition of a paralysis of intelli-gence collection is imposed on the coun-try by a system shaped by a plethora ofactors — located both in the official cir-cles, and outside of it. The present stateof affairs of the country struggling to gen-erate adequate amounts of actionableintelligence is a result of both historicalpolitical anomalies and also of the con-tinuing policies that believe in creatinggrand new structures at the expense ofbasic principles. In addition, the role ofthe non-state actors, i.e. the extremists/militants and insurgents, in accentuatingthe problem by systematically targetingthe intelligence-gathering apparatus alsoremains significant.

Question of numbers and quality:That there are about 20 different agencies— big and small — collecting ground-lev-el intelligence in the country mightsound impressive. But the reality is thateach of these agencies is vastly under-staffed. Consider for example, the case ofthe Intelligence Bureau. As per a 2008estimate, it had a staff strength of about25,000 including technical and cyberexperts, against a recommended strengthof 40,000. Worse still, even this belea-guered staff strength was marked by avacancy rate of 20 per cent.

Strange and outright appalling it

may sound, but divided into numeroussubsidiary units, the IB today manages itsoperation for the entire country with apaltry strength of only 5,000 field-levelofficers. This miniscule number of offi-cers for a population of 1.2 billion specif-ically to gather purely security-relatedinformation would still have been some-what manageable with exceptionallyqualified officers, had most of them notbeen tasked predominantly to collectpolitical intelligence to be used by theruling parties. It is no surprise that whilethe IB has excelled in becoming an effec-tive tool at the hands of the ruling party,its contribution to preventing terrorattacks is in a state of perennial decline.

At least for the past three years, the IBhas been out on a mission to fill up thevacant posts. Regular recruitment is onfor Assistant Central Intelligence Officer(ACIO) posts, the lower rank officers inthe agency, equivalent to that of a policesub-inspector or an upper division clerkin a government department. However, ithas not been a smooth ride. Mediareports have detailed how only half of theshort-listed candidates show up for theentrance examination. Meagre salary,poorly crafted professional progressionschemes within the agency and a dodgyexistence make the IB profession anunattractive career option. “We don’t get

July 2012

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What is missing in the country’s domestic intelligencegathering is “the focus on the basics”, argues

BIBHU PRASAD ROUTRAY

THE GAPING HOLES


as many applications as we should”:remains IB’s way of nitpicking.

A different problem marks the hunt forsenior officers — that of an insufficientlydeep-skilled human capital pool. The factthat the agencies do not use an open anddirect recruitment channel and follow anopaque system of staffing of people whohave been rejected for other services withlow marks in the civil services examina-tion, does not allow the IB to recruit thebest available minds. In addition, only ahandful of candidates from the science,technology, and engineering stream getinto the agencies. A recent task forcereport “Reforming India’s IntelligenceStructure” by the Institute of DefenceStudies and Analyses (IDSA), noted thatthe candidates appearing for such job interviews lack even basic generalknowledge and awareness on currentaffairs.

External weakness: Given that India’srather protracted experience with terrorthat has much to do with externally sup-ported terror, it is natural that the opera-tions of the domestic agencies need con-stantly to be supplemented by the effortsof the external internal agencies in theneighbouring countries. In this context,the Research & Analysis Wing (RAW),

India’s external intelligence agency, isalso responsible for internal security. Itssuccess in monitoring the activities of theanti-India terrorist groups and theirsponsors in countries such as Pakistanand Bangladesh is critical to stoppingattacks that have an ‘external’ footprint.Existing literature, however, points at apathetic state of capacity among theRAW, especially in Pakistan.

While much of the blame for the stateof affairs goes to two Prime Ministers —Morarji Desai and Inder Kumar Gujral —who dismantled the agency’s networkwithin that country during their tenures,successive governments too have beenlackadaisical in terms of pushing theagency to regain strength in that country.It is not just that the government hasneglected the critical aspect of RAW’scovert operations, the selection of somemost undeserving chiefs for the organisa-tion in recent years has also been itsundoing.

A misplaced priority: What is missingin the country’s search for a counter-ter-rorism architecture is its focus on thebasics. The debate over new institutionsand new acts to deal with terrorism con-tinues to ignore the need to revive andstrengthen ground-level intelligence-

generating capacity. Incidentally, none ofthe new structures set up since the 2008Mumbai attacks focus on the quality ofintelligence gathering.

One of the much-touted achievementsof the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) inthe post-26/11 period has been the set-up of the subsidiary Multi-Agency Cen-tres at the states level (SMACs), adding tothe already existing MAC at the Centre,headed by a part-time additional directorof the IB. Home Minister Chidambarammaintains that these subsidiary MACsfacilitate seamless integration of all avail-able intelligence collected by differentagencies. While this might have beentrue, the new set-up has done little interms of enhancing the quality of intelli-gence gathering, which continues toremain at an appallingly low level.

Neither the MAC nor the SMACs collectintelligence or carry out intelligence oper-ations. Intelligence sharing within theMAC set-up is mostly informal andunstructured, often leaving gaping holes.In effect, the integration of intelligencehas merely meant integration of bad intel-ligence. One of the recent examples oflimitations of the MAC set-up was the ear-ly May 2012 release of the photographs ofthe five Pakistani Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)

www.geopolitics.in

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INTELLIGENCE FAILURE: Days before the Delhi High Court blast, the IB had information about a terror plot in the national capital

terrorists who were subsequently found tobe ordinary civilians unconnected to ter-rorism. IB had doubted the authenticity ofthe information collected by the RAW. Butthat did not stop the information beingrelayed to all concerned, leaving many redfaces within the government on subse-quent days.

Retreat of intelligence: No other con-flict situation in the country has exposedthe vulnerability in the intelligence col-lection mechanism than left-wingextremism. Both the state and the centralforces have suffered tremendously due toa complete absence of ground-level intel-ligence in almost all the affected states.Strangely enough, yet much in line withthe current strategy of security sectorreforms, such weakness among the exist-ing agencies is paving the way for cre-ation of new agencies. For example, thelack of confidence in and inadequacy ofthe intelligence passed on to the centralforces has forced the Central ReservePolice Force (CRPF) to generate its ownintelligence by developing an internalintelligence wing.

Interestingly, the challenges posed bythe Naxal theatres in terms of intelligencecollection have a lot in common with theAmerican efforts in the Af-Pak region.Inputs have indicated that the CentralIntelligence Agency (CIA), the leadagency in the hunt for the Al-Qaedacadres in the Af-Pak region, faced with anacute shortage of local officers, continuesto employ young and inexperienced

Caucasian-looking men, who stand outbecause of their lack of knowledge on theregion’s culture and issues. They havebeen easily identifiable not just by theirappearance, but also, according to somereports, by their lack of merit to be intel-ligence agents. The IB and the intelli-gence units of the state police in the Nax-al theatres face a similar dilemma ofdeploying less-qualified officers on theground. Dwarfed by the absence of basicskills such as linguistic knowledge, IBagents struggle to understand the socio-political culture of the societies theyoperate within. Any intelligence theyprovide is thus based on very weak plat-forms and hardly accurate.

Just like the Af-Pak region, where theAl-Qaeda leaders are based in theremotest and most insular regions, mak-ing it almost impossible for the ‘foreign’intelligence operatives to mingle with thelocal population while on their job, col-lecting information about the Naxals toohas become problematic in the absenceof the local population to do the job forthe agencies. Similar to the Al Qaeda/ Tal-iban in the FATA region of Pakistan whokill locals for even talking to foreign-look-ing men, the Naxals too have run anextremely effective annihilation cam-paign against the tribal ‘police informers’.MHA data indicates that between 2007and 2011, as many as 920 civilians werekilled by the Naxals after being termed‘police informers’ in the affected states.While bulk of these killed may actually

not have been the sources for the agen-cies, such systemic annihilation allowsthe extremists to maintain a much supe-rior human intelligence as well as count-er-intelligence vis-a-vis the official agen-cies in the affected areas. It is of little sur-prise that intelligence collection hasremained one of the most arduous chal-lenges for the states in the Naxal belttoday. The CIA manages to fill in theweakness by its reliance on TechnicalIntelligence (TECHINT) and the unre-lenting use of drones against the Al-Qae-da. The Indian government’s options arequite limited on this front.

The way ahead: Comprehensivereforms are obviously a need of the hour,targeting all the existing loopholes. Thereis an urgent need to improve recruitmentthrough deputation, promotions, train-ing for new recruits and better qualitysupervision of operations in intelligenceagencies. Time has also come to take afresh look at the much-delayed project ofseparating the investigation and law andorder functions of the police and have asystem of preventive intelligence-gather-ing system in place. Way back in Septem-ber 2006, the Supreme Court had askedthe central government to initiate theproject. Little has moved in that front inthe last six years.

(The author, a Singapore-based SecurityAnalyst, served as a Deputy Director in

the National Security Council Secretariat,Government of India)


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gINTERNALSECURITY

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INADEQUATE MEASURES: Unless the intelligence infrastructure across the country is strengthened quantitatively, the nation will remainopen to terror attacks

www.geopolitics.in

THE 2008 Mumbai terror attackhas spawned a major market forhomeland security solutions inIndia, with various agenciesscrambling to put in place secu-

rity systems designed to both prevent andcontain terrorist assaults on Indian soil.India is looking to bring in more than $10billion worth of cutting-edge homelandsecurity products, solutions, and servicesfor border protection, marine security,counter-insurgency, city surveillance,intelligence infrastructure, and other criti-cal security infrastructure needs withinthe next year itself.

As such, homeland security has alsoemerged as an area where India’s privatesector is being able to leverage its greaterflexibility (say in sourcing technology fromabroad) to offer solutions that India’sdefence public sector units will find diffi-cult to match. Naturally, a market that isset to reach $13 billion by 2014 is attractingserious global interest, although interna-tional majors seem to have decided thatthey are better off partnering with largeIndian business houses for this segment.

Nonetheless, further down the road,Indian industry must innovate and offertruly homegrown solutions to secure thehomeland. India currently accounts forabout four per cent of worldwide expendi-ture on homeland security and, given cur-rent trends, the Indian market may wellaccount for over six per cent of the totalglobal expenditure in this arena by 2020.

But the chief attractiveness of the sectorstems from the fact that homeland securi-ty involves relatively greater spending onintelligence, surveillance and reconnais-sance (ISR) tools than that on the pro-curement of weapons. This means that

companies that have traditionally notbeen involved in the armaments business(such as many Indian majors) can enterthe security market via this route sincemany of the technologies required in thisfield can evolve from solutions that may

CITY-WIDE SURVEILLANCE: Round-the-clock inspection of public spaces is essentialto ensure the safety of cities

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The best way to develop India’s “Homeland Security System” is to encourage the domesticindustrial majors to devise homegrown technologies, writes SAURAV JHA

SECURITY SOLUTIONS


July 2012

already be available in the civilian domainsuch as ruggedised network security archi-tecture and conventional off the shelf(COTS) hardware that can be used in secu-rity systems.

Indeed, the security business of todayhas moved far beyond the paradigm ofsimply having enough men with guns, soto speak. It is an area that has been deeplyaffected by the worldwide information andcommunications revolution with the needto both “see first” and “act fast” literallymaking the difference between safety andcatastrophe. Homeland security, therefore,involves the induction of security surveil-lance gear, communications and softwareas much as the augmentation of weaponry,mine resistant trucks and body armour.

Take, for instance, the Mumbai CCTVproject, which is also in some sense a flag-ship project for India Inc’s involvement inthe Indian homeland security market. Theproject envisages the installation of morethan 6,000 CCTV cameras across Mumbaito collect real-time videos from distantcameras and transmit the footage via anoptical fibre network to a control room

fitted with workstation personal comput-ers operating application software. Now aReliance Industries Limited (RIL)-led con-sortium comprising Allied Digital Services,IBM, and Cisco may have emerged as thelowest bidder in this project conceivedafter the 26/11 terror attack. It seems thatof the 10 original bidders for the project,seven were shortlisted, of which two con-sortia qualified and in late May 2012 therewere reports that the RIL-backed consor-tium had won the project.

What is significant, however, is thatnone of the companies in the consortiumwill be immediately recognised as tradi-tional players in the defence space. But assome RIL officials are fond of pointing out,the group has apparently designed and isnow operating the “world’s largest integrat-ed security automation system consistingof over 12,000 cameras apart from tens ofthousands of other advanced security sen-sors, radars and video analytics” across itsvarious assets and installations.

Indeed, the Mumbai CCTV project ismuch more than that mere positioning ofcameras at vantage points and traffic

junctions in the city. The lynchpin of thesystem is a sophisticated analysis softwarethat can both sieve and store specificfootage, thereby allowing the derivation ofuseful inputs from the surveillance net.Then, there is also the question of settingup a wireless broadband network thatallows the unhindered transmission ofreal-time footage at all times. In fact, this isprobably an area where RIL feels it has anadvantage going forward, given that it is alicense holder for a pan-India wirelessbroadband 4G network and already has inplace an alliance with Siemens, whoseproprietary surveillance technology hasbeen used in the past to secure locationssuch as the Dubai Police Headquartersand the Doha 2006 Asian Games. After all,the future of urban surveillance networksseems to be a video net riding on highspeed wireless broadband networks. How-ever, Siemens is not a member of the RILconsortia that has emerged as the lowestbidder for the Mumbai CCTV project.

RIL’s international partnerships, mostnotably with Siemens, is of course part of awider trend in the Indian homeland securi-ty market wherein Indian corporates arelooking to bring in technology via a globalalliance to present customised solutions tothe Indian market. For instance, MahindraDefence Systems has a joint-venture part-nership with US-based Telephonics Corpo-ration to make surveillance and communi-cation systems for Indian agencies, whileTata Advanced Systems has a venture withZurich-based AGT International to tapopportunities in the homeland securitymarket. The Tata-AGT joint venture, knownas Avana Integrated Systems, avowedlyaims to deliver homeland security solu-tions tailored for the Indian threat environ-ment and leverage cutting-edge technolo-gy deployed globally by AGT to protect crit-ical assets. Its key solutions apparentlyinclude integrated hardware managed byadvanced data fusion techniques in keep-ing with the then Tata Sons ChairmanRatan Tata’s statement in 2010:“homelandsecurity impacts the lives of every citizenand is an area where the Tata Group wouldlike to make a meaningful contribution.”

However, a truly meaningful contribu-tion will happen only when Indian majorsactually start offering homegrown technol-ogy. In this respect, almost all private play-ers within the country claim that they areindeed looking to incubate technology andwill set up domestic research and develop-ment (R&D) units for homeland securitysoon enough. But the fact is, at the

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moment, the front end of India’s emergingsurveillance networks are also beingsourced from overseas. Of course, this is agreat news for companies such as Swedishvideo solutions player Axis Communica-tions that sells security solutions rangingfrom network video cameras to videomanagement software. It is also attractinga lot of interest from Israeli companiesthat have a considerable expertise in theseareas as well. The basic idea at themoment, therefore, seems to be that anIndian major with a good dedicated com-munication network will partner with for-eign companies specialising in surveil-lance systems and software in a consor-tium approach to bid for homeland secu-rity tenders in India.

While on paper, this seems like a goodapproach since the new communicationsystems being rolled out by Indian majorscan certainly be used for sending immedi-ate, uninterrupted alerts triggered by sen-sors sourced from abroad, it is ultimately a

short-term prospect. India simply cannotcontinue to rely on imported sensors andsoftware indefinitely as that can itself rep-resent a security threat in the long run.Perhaps, having realised this, the DefenceResearch and Development Organisation(DRDO) recently inaugurated a separatedepartment dedicated to researchingtechnologies useful for internal securityand gaining an advantage in low-intensityconflict. Of course, the DRDO is also look-ing at international collaboration formany projects in this area, but these aremore akin to joint development than mererebadging of imported systems. Forinstance, DRDO is currently involved indeveloping foliage-penetrating radar withSwedish major SAAB. Indian industryneeds to operate on similar lines and putin place partnerships that actually result intechnology absorption and co-develop-ment. Allowing DRDO to choose produc-tion agencies from within India’s privatesector will also aid this prospect as the

former can serve as a conduit to germinateworld-class capabilities and technologypractices in the latter. This will certainlyhelp fructify the Indian defence ministry’sstated desire to acquire up to 70 per centof its homeland security hardware fromthe domestic private sector.

In this context, it will also be importantto explore just how much the UnitedStates will be willing to cooperate in therealm of developing technologies forhomeland security, given the Obamaadministration’s pivot to Asia. If somequarters are to be believed, there is alreadya great degree of intelligence collaborationon homeland security between India andthe United States through both the Strate-gic Dialogue and the Joint Working Groupon Counter-Terrorism. Homeland securi-ty, therefore, also represents an area that isripe to put in place US Defence SecretaryPanetta’s recent assertion that the Indo-USrelationship would move towards co-development and joint production.

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BUY INDIAN: It is high time the tools ofsurveillance trade were manufactured inthe country instead of being imported

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SUFFERINGFROM TRUSTDEFICIT

IRAN’S NUCLEAR IMBROGLIOPR

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DIPLOMACYgeopolitics

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THINKING ALIKEIndia and the United States inch closer

THINKING ALIKE

THE RELATIONSHIP betweenIndia and Pakistan during thelast few years has been indiffer-ent. Neither is there an animos-ity in the relationship, nor is

there a peace process on any of the majorissues that have been identified as a partof the composite dialogue. A section with-in India thinks that India should take thisopportunity to move forward and makethe peace process irreversible and effec-tive. This section wants India to committo few confidence-building measures vis-a-vis Pakistan. Another section is suspi-cious of any positive change in the Indo-Pak relations and wants India to remaincautious and not jump the gun.

The present state First, a stock taking of Indo-Pak relation-ship is essential before analysing where itis heading. In terms of the positives, theceasefire across the Line of Control (LoC)and international border remains.Despite minor skirmishes, the ceasefirehas held for a long time, perhaps a recordtime, when compared to the border inter-actions between the two countries sinceearly 1980s. Militancy and violence inJammu and Kashmir (J&K) and the rest ofIndia, with its base in Pakistan is low;there have not been any major incident ofterrorism in the last few years. These twoare significant positive stories in thebilateral relations.

On the other side, neither of them hasbeen able to build further. There is no sig-nificant movement relating to Hafiz Saeedin the Mumbai terrorist attack case. Thereis unlikely to be any major developmentin this issue, as Pakistan insists on legalissues and proof, which would never beprovided by the Indian security establish-ment. Even if India is able to provide anycredible evidence, Pakistan is not likely toaccept the same; the military and intelli-gence establishment is not likely to give

July 2012

MERCURIAL RELATIONS: PrimeMinister Manmohan Singh with PakistaniPrime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani at theIndo-Pak World Cup semi-final, at Mohalion March 30, 2011

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Where do India’s relations with Pakistan stand today? How far can India go? Will Pakistan deliver?

D SUBA CHANDRAN discusses these and other vexing issues

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up Hafiz Saeed. Hence any amount ofpressure and evidence is unlikely to resultin any positive development vis-a-vis theLashkar-e-Toiba.

Neither is there any positive movementon the most favoured nation status (MFN)on trade; though, the status is not likely totransform the bilateral economic relation-ship between the two countries. India con-siders it a confidence-building measure,which can be considered a measure of Pak-istan’s seriousness. Instead, Pakistan, espe-cially the political leadership, expects Indiato take the first step to prove India’s sinceri-ty. The perception within Pakistan is — nowthat there is a genuine change within Pak-istan on how India is perceived, New Delhishould make use of this opportunity andtake the next step in building confidence.Especially after the recent disaster inSiachen region, where Pakistan had lostnumerous lives of its soldiers, there was alarger expectation that India should moveahead and demilitarise Siachen.

While New Delhi expects Pakistan to domore, especially vis-a-vis the Lashkar-e-Taiba, to prove its sincerity towards thepeace process, Islamabad expects India todo more in J&K, especially in Siachen.Since both countries want the other totake credible measures to prove their sin-cerity, the peace process is not going any-where and is stuck.

Will Pakistan deliver?What can India do to further, in terms oftaking the peace process and the bilateralrelationship? Much will depend on howmuch time and space the leadership inPakistan has for improving the bilateralrelationship. While India has its own inter-nal problems and divides (remember thetime we have spent in deciding the nextPresident?), facing the election, the pres-ent government has also other priorities.Improving Indo-Pak relations is neither apriority for Pakistan nor for India.

Before making concrete measures at thebilateral level, there should be a clearunderstanding of what is happening withinPakistan and whether Indo-Pak relations isa priority for Islamabad and Rawalpindi(The Army headquarters). Pakistan iscaught today in a whirlwind, with multiplecontests involving different actors. The firstand foremost is the relationship with theUS and Afghanistan. The debate and ani-mosity towards the US in reopening theNATO supply line is only an expression ofhow unstable is Pakistan’s relationship withthe US. More than the US, it is Pakistan’s

stakes and interests as conceived byRawalpindi in Afghanistan, that play adecisive role in Pakistan-US, Pakistan-Afghanistan, and perhaps Indo-Pak rela-tionship as well.

Pakistan would like to have its owntrump cards in Kabul after 2014, hence isrelying on the Haqqani network. While theinternational community and the US, inparticular, are upset with Pakistan’s nega-tive contribution in Afghanistan, they havenot been able to push Islamabad to domore. Pakistan also does not want India toplay any major role in Afghanistan.

The following two questions seem toshape Pakistan’s defence against India play-ing a role on Kabul. India does not share

borders with Afghanistan; hence whyshould India try to be in Afghanistan in amajor way? Second, is India usingAfghanistan as its strategic depth againstPakistan and creating troubles in the Pash-tun and Baloch regions? Pakistan’s reluc-tance and resistance to any Indian role willplay a crucial role in how India perceivesPakistan and Indo-Pak relations. If Pakistanremains suspicious of New Delhi’s contri-bution to Kabul and resists India’s role inAfghanistan, but expects Indo-Pak relation-ship to improve, there is a serious imbal-ance.

However, more than Pak-US relation-ship and Pakistan’s interests inAfghanistan, what is likely to shape Indo-Pak relationship in the immediate futureis the internal situation within Pakistan.Despite Gilani becoming the longest-serv-ing Prime Minister in the history of Pak-istan, the government he is heading todayis perhaps the weakest ever since it tookover in 2008. There is a deadly tusslebetween the government and the judici-ary; the Prime Minister has been alreadyimplicated by the apex court. Zardari, thePresident, is waging a behind-the-sceneswar with Iftikhar Chaudhry, the Chief

Justice of Pakistan. Besides the govern-ment, the judiciary is also engaged in anindirect duel with the military and intelli-gence agencies over the human right vio-lations and disappearances especially inBaluchistan. There is a suspicion, that theongoing accusation against the Chief Jus-tice over the question of his son Arsalanbeing bribed by a business tycoon, is seenas a part of intelligence agencies (and per-haps the government) trying to corner thejudiciary and force it to back off.

Worse, the TTP (The Pakistani Taliban)offensive is continuing unabated. Despitethe military operations in Khyber Pak-tunkwa and the Federally AdministeredTribal Agencies (FATA), there is no sem-blance of TTP being placed under check.It seems to be striking at will, not only inthe tribal regions, but also elsewhere. Out-side the TTP-led violence, Karachi, theeconomic capital of Pakistan, has beenburning continuously for the last fewyears and is paralysed.

For the government, led by the PakistanPeople’s Party (PPP), the immediate priori-ty is to face the elections. With Benazirgone, there is unlikely to be any sympathyfor the party in the forthcoming election;there is only disappointment and hope-lessness among the people in terms ofhow the PPP managed governance and theeconomy. Though the Finance Ministercreated a record during early June 2012,when he presented the budget, (for thefirst time, in a row for five years by thesame government), there was nothing tocheer about. Pakistan has missed all thetargets of growth during 2011-12, and thebudget deficit for 2012-13 is substantial.With the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)declining by more than 50 per cent thisyear and the current account deficitwidening, one is not sure, how Pakistanwill manage its budget deficit during thecurrent financial year.

What has further complicated the gov-ernment inside is the ongoing energy cri-sis. Load-shedding has created a situationwhich is witnessing people rioting in citiesin Punjab and Sindh. The PML-N ChiefMinister of Punjab has even equated load-shedding with a form of terrorism.

With all the above problems within Pak-istan in an election-year, how far can Indiago? Is the present government in Pakistanlikely to make any major decision vis-a-visIndia? Can Zardari afford to take any sub-stantial step, keeping in mind the verticaldivide in the polity and the pressure fromthe religious right?

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THE INDIANMILITARY IS NOT

KEEN ONRELINQUISHINGTHE STRATEGIC

HIGH GROUND INSIACHEN

COVETED WASTELAND: Often celebratedas the world's highest battlefield the Siachenglacier is of critical strategic importance

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gEqually importantly, the Establishment

(Army-controlled) in Pakistan has notmade any major statement on improvingIndo-Pak relations. Given the fact that Pak-istan’s policy towards Afghanistan is led bythe Establishment, it is safe to concludethat it is neither keen nor under any pres-sure to take the Indo-Pak relations to thenext level. Given its pre-occupation withthe TTP and Afghanistan, the Establish-ment is not likely to take on India andopen another front. At the same time, theEstablishment is not likely to improve theIndo-Pak peace process and make boldmeasures.

So, why not do something on Siachen?Finally, a postscript is essential on therecently-concluded Secretary-level talks,especially on Siachen. There is a greaterexpectation in Pakistan, and also amongsta section within India, to bring an end tothe militarisation of Siachen. Irrespectiveof the military or strategic significance ofthe region, those who argue that Siachenshould be demilitarised consider this aconfidence-building measure.

Undoubtedly, demilitarisation ofSiachen would be a great confidence-building measure. But confidence buildingaimed at what? What does the resolution ofSiachen lead to? Is that an objective, or astrategy to achieve larger normalisation? Ifit is seen as an independent objective, thenit is a non-starter. If it is a part of largerplan, what is that plan or end game,towards which demilitarisation of Siachenis one of the first steps?

Any cursory look at the recent debate

within Pakistan over the Siachen conflictwould make it clear that the writings andarticulation have been high on moralgrounds, after failing in all their initiativeto militarily remove the Indian presencefrom Siachen. Invariably, every account onthe Pakistani side would argue India as theaggressor in Siachen, with no understand-ing of Indian sensitivities. Why did Indiadecide to do what it finally did in 1984?What circumstances had forced India tomake that move? If the Indian political andmilitary leadership is convinced that thesituation today is different and the con-cerns of the mid-1980s no more exist, theyshould move ahead and demilitarise.

But asking or pressurizing for demili-tarisation as a political confidence-build-ing measure may not be the right way toconsolidate the peace process. Especiallywhen the militarisation of Siachenoccurred owing to lack of confidence,expecting India to demilitarise as a sign ofconfidence building does not make sense.If demilitarisation is seen as a CBM, thenwhy stop with Siachen? Let both countriesmove ahead and demilitarise from the restof J&K as well. In fact, it would be a biggerCBM, or as the media would like to drama-tise, the mother of all Indo-Pak CBMs. Whystop with Siachen alone?

The road ahead: The Fabian dictumGiven the internal situation within Pak-istan, India will have to wait till the coming

elections in Pakistan, before strategisingthe Indo-Pak peace process. Nor wouldNew Delhi have the time and energy, whenthe country itself has already started thecountdown for the next elections. A CBM,for the sake of it, will not take the peaceprocess anywhere. India should makeefforts to maintain the ceasefire and holdon till the next government is formedacross the border. So should Pakistan.

Meanwhile, India should initiate adebate within, between the State and civilsociety, and more importantly between thevarious departments on how far shouldIndia go? While the civil society will be will-ing to take the extra step, are all depart-ments/ministries of the government onthe same page? For example, the Indianmilitary may have nothing objectionablein improving the trade between two coun-tries, but may have a strong position onSiachen. While the Foreign Ministry maylike to move forward on cross-LoC interac-tions, the Home Ministry may have seriousreservations.

In any case, the political situation with-in the two countries will not allow bothcountries to move forward, fearing failure.A half-hearted effort will end up halfbaked, increasing the frustration. The timeis not ripe, either for India or for Pakistan.Waging peace is tougher than waging war.So let India and Pakistan wait for theopportune moment, as the legendaryRoman General Fabius Maximus did, butto wage peace.

(The author is Director, The Institute ofPeace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi)

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STRATEGIC PARTNERS: US Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta at the South Block with Defence Minister AK Antony and Defence SecretaryShashikant Sharma (left)

INDO-US BONHOMIEUS Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has just described the Indo-US relations as an “affair ofthe heart” with the usual ups and downs. We carry two views on the subject, particularly the

security dimensions, one from India and another from the US...

DPR

US DEFENCE SecretaryLeon Panetta’s recent tripto India was not a stand-

alone trip. It was part of hisnine-day visit to Asia and

that explains why itssignificance should bemeasured in the larger

context of the changingbalance of power in

Asia.This visit came close

on the heels of US Secre-tary of State Hillary Clinton’s

India visit, and soon afterPresident Barrack Obamaannounced his new Asia-Pacificstrategy.

The relative decline of USinfluence around the globe,

marked by serious economic down-turn at home, and failure of USstrategies in Iraq and Afghanistanabroad, coupled with the rapid rise

of China, has induced the ObamaAdministration to devise a new strate-

gy for the Asia-Pacific region.The prevailing crisis in the European

Union, particularly in the Eurozone,gives less hope to the US to engage thisregion for bolstering American econo-my. The absence of a credible militarythreat to Europe in the post-Soviet era

has made the NATO alliance an increas-ingly expensive security project. Simulta-neously, the economic stakes of the US inthe Asia Pacific have been steadily risingover the decades, requiring more USattention and engagements. In addition,the growth of the Chinese military capa-bilities, along with the economic miracleof China’s growth story, poses a potential

challenge to present and future US inter-ests in the region.

The new Obama strategy has sought toaddress this shifting centre of gravity ofglobal political economy and militarybalance. The Obama Administrationclearly wants to strengthen alliances withJapan, South Korea and Australia; renewdefence ties with erstwhile allies, such asthe Philippines and Thailand, turn formerenemies, such as Vietnam into newfriends and continue to build security tieswith new strategic partners, such asIndia.

Indo-US defence cooperation has beenimproving since the Bush Presidency andPresident Obama has sought to carry itforward further. Leon Panetta’s visit toIndia came against the backdrop ofunprecedented level of Indo-US militaryexercises. India has conducted more mili-tary exercises with the US than with anyother country in the world. India has alsoopened its attractive and lucrativedefence market to US defence industry-perhaps striking more defence deals withthe US than any other single country inlast ten years.

Unlike India, China and Pakistan —two countries that draw the most atten-tion of the Indian security establishment— pose a potential security threat to USinterests. The trust deficit between Wash-ington and Islamabad has widened to anextent where Pakistan no longer enjoysthe benefits that it acquired after beingelevated to the position of a major non-NATO ally of the US in the recent past.The US neither transfers defence equip-ment to China, nor holds military exercis-es worth the salt, with that country. India

July 2012

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The Indian policy-making and strategic communityneeds to read the newness in the American approach

towards India, writes CHINTAMANI MAHAPATRA

CHANGING THE MINDSET

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ARTICLES HAVE recently, appearedabout the India-US security relationship running out of steam

— the issues cited are the disagreementover Iran and the fact that the US didnot win the Medium Multi-Role CombatAircraft (MMRCA) fighter competitiondespite considerable lobbying by Presi-dent Obama and the US Embassy inNew Delhi. At the same time, the US-India relationship, the importance ofwhich has achieved a bipartisan consensus in Washington DC, remainsconstrained by India’s internal politics -thus, it required significant horse-trad-ing for the first Manmohan Singh government to pass the Indo-USnuclear bill through the Indian Parlia-ment. And the current Congress gov-ernment is increasingly becominghostage to the demands of its regionalcoalition partners. Mamata Banerjeewas able to temporarily, at least, scuttlethe Teesta River agreement withBangladesh while the DMK got India tovote against Sri Lanka in the UnitedNations. More importantly, perhaps, isthe feeling in Washington that the Indi-an government talks a good talk but isfar less effective on delivery: be it open-ing up the Indian market to ForeignDirect Investment (FDI) or to see Indiatake a leadership position in Asia. Crit-ics point out that India remains trappedin an internal debate on what role thecountry should assume on the globalstage and to what extent it should cozyup to the United States in the pursuit ofits foreign policy. I would argue thatIndia-US relations have been trans-formed in the last decade to the pointwhere they cannot be negatively

reversed, especiallyin the security arena. There are sev-eral reasons for this.

First, the UnitedStates and India, sincethe Clinton Administra-tion, have moved towards ageneral convergence ofinterests where Washingtonhas become increasinglysensitive to, and accom-modative of, Indian nation-al interests. The old India-Pakistan coupling in USforeign policy has gone andthe nuclear deal laid thebasis for giving India de jurenuclear weapons powerstatus.

Second, the arms rela-tionship has been mutuallybeneficial, despite the lossof the MMRCA contract tothe French Rafale. India hasagreed to buy C-17 Globe-master III strategic-lift aircraft(becoming the second largestoperator of the type after theUnited States), as well as C-130Hercules tactical transporter, andthe P-8 Poseidon maritime surveil-lance aircraft, and will most likelypurchase an American attack heli-copter. Further, if India were to pur-chase the Global Hawk surveillanceunmanned aerial vehicle (UAV ), itwould substantially improve the mar-itime and internal security. Had therebeen 24-hour coverage of the maritimespace around Mumbai, the terrorists

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AN UPWARD JOURNEYOf late, there may have been more ups than downsin the US-India security relationship, but somepepping up is still required, argues AMIT GUPTA

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gis thus seen by the US policy-makers as amore suitable strategic partner thaneither China or Pakistan.

At a time when the budgetary prob-lems in the US make it difficult for theadministration to sustain the same levelof defence expenditure and compel it toset new priorities, the Obama Adminis-tration’s decision to expand its militarypresence in Asia and reduce its deploy-ments in Europe is the logical culmina-tion. Japan, the traditional pivot of Amer-ica’s Asia Pacific strategy, itself is in deepeconomic trouble. Relatively smallerAsian allies of the US are supportive ofthe US strategy, but are not adequate totake up the expanding challenges posedby China. India is looked at by Americananalysts as an old civilization, large andpopulous country, a rising economic andmilitary power and potentially a robustalternative to balance the rise of China.

Nonetheless, the United States findsmany roadblocks on the way to realise itsintended goal of making India a newalliance partner to tackle the challengesof the 21st century. Defense SecretaryPanetta visited India to, among otherthings, dismantle the roadblocks — not atone go but to take an incremental steptowards the goal. And what are the road-blocks?

The first obstacle, of course, is India’sallergy to the word “alliance”. Indian for-eign policy community and strategic ana-lysts have been so enchanted with theterm “non-alignment” that the term“alliance” almost generates an allergicreaction. The non-aligned India forged nodefence ties with the US during the ColdWar; did not endorse US naval presencein the Indian Ocean; opposed the US-ledalliance in Asia, such as SEATO and CEN-TO; and viewed with suspicion Washing-ton’s arms supply to Pakistan.

In the post-Cold War era, India buysweapons and other defence equipmentfrom the US; holds naval exercises withthe US in the Indian Ocean; does not crit-icise US arms supply to Pakistan; main-tains cordial security ties with a host ofUS alliance partners, such as Japan, Aus-tralia and South Korea; and uphold“strategic partnership” with the UnitedStates. There has also been on-goingcounter-terrorism cooperation betweenthe two countries. Significantly, the BushAdministration once requested India tosend troops to Iraq and the Indian gov-ernment led by the National Democratic

Alliance instead of outrightly rejecting itcontemplated for some time to do so. TheIndian response to such a request duringCold War would have been straight “no”.More significantly, India participated inthe Afghan reconstruction activities inthe midst of US and NATO forces battlingTaliban and other insurgents and terroristgroups. Would it have been possible dur-ing the days of serious “non-alignment”?India was allowed by Washington toenhance its soft power in Afghanistanmuch to the annoyance of Pakistan — theso-called major non-NATO ally.

In other words, in the new context ofthe post-Cold War era and against thebackdrop of spreading terrorist activities,India and the US practically acted likealliance partners, although both the sidesrefrained from using the term “alliance”for domestic political reasons and possi-ble adverse regional implications. Indo-US cooperation in tackling mutualthreats was sometimes more intense thanwhat the US could expect from alliancepartners like Japan and South Korea.Votaries of nonalignment in India oftenargue that signing of agreements likeCommunication Interoperability andSecurity Memorandum of Agreement(CISMOA), the Logistics Support Agree-ment (LSA), and End-Use MonitoringAgreement (EUMA) would make India analliance partner of the US. What is note-worthy is the fact that even close alliancepartners like Britain and Australia some-times stay away from buying US weaponson similar grounds! Many AmericanNATO partners refused to support USmilitary action against Iraq in 2003!

How does one define an alliance then?The US had concluded defence agree-ments with Pakistan during the Cold War,turning it into a junior alliance partner,but did not come to the rescue of Pak-istan during the latter’s war against India.The Philippines was another US alliance

partner in the Pacific, but Washingtonstayed away from the former’s conflictwith Malaysia over the disputed Sabahprovince.

Nonetheless, the Obama Administra-tion has been keen to sign such agree-ments with India in order to facilitateinteroperability of forces during complexmilitary operations in the future. SomeIndian officials and defence analysts donot favour such agreements on theground that it would make India analliance partner of the United States.Some have gone to the extent ofannouncing a new foreign policy doctrinecalled “Non-alignment 2.0”.

The fear of getting sucked into analliance relationship with the US has theroots in India’s colonial past, philosophyof the nationalist struggle; and the USCold War policies and past behaviour.Washington had little regard for India’snon-alignment, its Cold War strategiesmade India’s adversaries, Pakistan andChina, favourites of US strategists at vari-ous phases of Cold War history.

India has watched the US sanctionpolicies even towards its allies and Indi-ans are aware of the highhanded behav-iour of the sole superpower and the deepAmerican desire to see every other coun-try as a junior partner. Thus India isapprehensive about getting too close toWashington on defence and security mat-ters. In fact, China today has much largereconomic ties with the US than India,and Pakistan remains a military allydespite widening trust deficit. Washing-ton cannot abandon either. What then isthe meaning of “strategic partnership” orthe goal of democratic alliance betweenthe largest and the strongest democraciesof the globe? Defence Secretary Panetta’svisit to India was actually aimed at allay-ing Indian fears, strengthening existingpartnerships, tackling certain immediatesecurity issues and shaping an appropri-ate relationship with India in the light ofObama’s new Asia Pacific strategy.

To allay Indian fears over foundationalagreements like CISMOA and EUMA,Panetta thought it better not to pressureIndia too much on these issues and allowthe country to have its own debates.

The US has realised that alliances ofthe future are not going to be a replica ofthe past alliances whether NATO or CEN-TO. New alliances with special powerslike India will have to be based on mutu-ality of interests and respect for strategic


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AN ALLIANCEWITH INDIA WILL

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gwho attacked on 26/11 might havebeen deterred before they landed nearthe Taj Mahal Hotel in Mumbai.

Those in the United States whobemoan the loss of the fighter contractfail to understand that in the era of theObama pivot to Asia what the UnitedStates requires are partners who can“plug and play” with the United Statesfor joint operations. Transport and sur-veillance aircraft bring the kind ofinteroperability that would enhance USmissions in the region. The C-17 pro-vides heavy lift across Asia while an F-16/F-18 would not have gone muchfurther than India’s Exclusive EconomicZone. The Australians, for instance,have bought transport and surveillanceaircraft precisely with such joint opera-tions in mind.

Additionally, in an era when everymajor foreign arms procurement byIndia becomes the subject of a corrup-tion witch-hunt, the government-to-government Foreign Military Salesfrom the United States have worked toIndia’s advantage by ensuring theintegrity of such deals.

Third, the United States has becomea close partner of India in the fightagainst terrorism since the variousnational security bureaucracies inWashington recognise that groups inPakistan, with the support of elementsfrom the Pakistani establishment, havecarried out acts of terrorism in theSouth Asian region. This was particu-larly the case after the Mumbai attackswhen the Federal Bureau of Investiga-tion (FBI) provided vital forensic assis-tance to the Indian authorities in mak-ing the link between the terrorists andtheir handlers in Pakistan. Counter-terrorism will remain an important, ifunderstated, part of the security rela-tionship, as the United States helpsIndia counter groups that serve as along-term threat to both countries.

This brings up the fourth pointwhich is the breakdown of the US-Pak-istan relationship. Since the last year ofthe George W Bush Administration,there has been recognition in Washing-ton that Islamabad plays the regionalgame in ways that are detrimental toUS interests. Bruce Riedel, DavidSanger and Bob Woodward have alldocumented the lack of trust betweenthe United States and Pakistan as itbecame clear that Islamabad had

supported terrorist organisations thathurt US efforts at nation-building inAfghanistan. Woodward gives details ofthe “Retribution Plan” to counter a9/11-style attack by terrorists based inPakistan. Should such an attack onAmerica take place, the US would retal-iate by attacking every known al-Qaedabase and camp in Pakistan (regardlessof how outdated the information wouldbe) and by hitting 150 associatedcamps. A clearer warning could nothave been issued to Islamabad that itwould face unacceptable damage if itworked intentionally (or was an unin-tentional bystander) to permit anattack on the American homeland fromPakistani soil.

From a Pakistani perspective, the rela-tionship has hit rock bottom since theview in Islamabad is that the UnitedStates does not respect Pakistani sover-eignty, is favouring India over Pakistanand, most importantly, will abandonPakistan once the Afghan War is over.Pakistani analysts, therefore, talk of a“reset” of the US-Pakistan relationship,although Islamabad’s options are farmore limited than what is believed bythe Pakistani elite. So where do thesesets of constraints and opportunitiesleave the US-India security relationship?

US-India: The futureThe best way to view the relationship isthat it is one where both countries areinvesting in the future. This will bereflected in arms sales as well as in anypossible future US effort to get India toparticipate in joint operations in Asia.Arms sales are likely to be most promis-ing where support systems are con-cerned, since India has yet to feel con-fident about the United States as aguaranteed supplier of weaponry whileresidual concerns remain in Washing-ton about India’s reliability and how

secure it is as a possessor of advancedAmerican weapons technologies. Whatwill continue, therefore, are weaponspurchases, technology purchases,cooperation to deal with terrorism andongoing military exercises between thetwo countries. The latter have beenparticularly useful in getting the twomilitaries to know and respect eachother and, more importantly, to buildtrust that can be leveraged in thefuture.

AfghanistanThe key point that emerged fromDefense Secretary Panetta’s June 2012visit to New Delhi was that Washingtonwanted India to play a greater role inAfghanistan. This is a change from thepast, when an Indian presence inAfghanistan was viewed as upsettingPakistan and thereby throwing a span-ner in any potential Afghan settlement.With NATO exhausted from the nation-building effort in Afghanistan and thedecline of relations with Pakistan, Indiaremains the one regional player whoseobjectives in Afghanistan are parallel tothose of Washington. Moreover, it is theone country that has good relationswith Iran and Russia — two of the othercountries that would play a role in thepost-US stabilisation of Afghanistan.

India, America, and the Indo-PacificThe key security issue will be how Indiaviews itself as working with the Ameri-can pivot to Asia. Before addressinghow India may do this, it is necessary todiscuss whether the pivot to Asia is along-term US strategy or one likely todie if the Obama Administration doesnot get a second term? The answer liesin the fact that economically, politicallyand militarily, China remains front andcentre in American priorities and aRomney Administration is just as likelyto continue to enlarge American politi-cal and military commitments in theregion. The Obama Administration isstarting to put teeth to the policy bytalking in terms of the Indo-Pacific — aregion that redefines internationalsecurity by creating a geographical areathat encompasses half the world’s pop-ulation. Further, the air-sea battle doc-trine of the Pentagon is a clear shiftaway from counter-insurgency —which was necessitated by the two warsin Afghanistan and Iraq — to one which




THE KEY ISSUE WILL BE

HOW INDIA VIEWSITSELF AS

WORKING WITHTHE US PIVOT TO

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gautonomy. The US seems to be lookingfor a new language and vocabulary toexplain US-India ties and work towards arelationship where Indian can sharedefence burden in the Indo-Pacificregion, Indian Ocean and be a strong pil-lar in the emerging balance of power.

The Indian policy-making communityand strategic community need to readthe newness in the American approachin the light of the post-Iraq develop-ments, Arab Spring, end game inAfghanistan, shifting centre of gravityfrom the West to the East, the uncertainevolution of China as a political heavy-weight in years to come and even theprobable failure of nuclear Pakistan tosustain itself as a viable state. Panettasaid in his speech: “America is at a turn-ing point. After a decade of war, we aredeveloping a new defence strategy — acentral feature of which is a “re-balanc-ing” toward the Asia-Pacific region. Inparticular, we will expand our militaryrelationships and our presence in the arcextending from the Western Pacific andEast Asia into the Indian Ocean regionand South Asia. Defence cooperationwith India is a linchpin in this....”

While this is the larger picture, Washington expects India to be an

important player in addressing issues inthe West Asian region in the post-USwithdrawal from Iraq and forthcomingwithdrawal from Afghanistan in the nearfuture. Religious extremism, terrorism,instability in the heart of the world’shydrocarbon resources, piracy, and vio-lent crimes on the cyberspace, land andsea are issues that cannot be addressedsingularly by any country. India and theUS would have to forge partnership witheach other and with others to addressthese challenges.

The real big question is how to managethe relationship with China — the newsuperpower in the neighbourhood. ColdWar thinking dominates the Indiandebate and discourses. Analysts are afraid

that the US has been trying to put inplace a containment strategy to containChina and India should not be part of thisstrategy. Nothing is farther from the truth.The US-China web of economic ties is socomplex and interdependent that oldCold War strategies would simply notwork. The forces of globalisation andcomplex interdependence of internation-al political economy have made structur-al realism irrelevant to understand thegreat power dynamics. The current mix ofeconomic and military developmentsdefies any categorisation of the US-Chinarelationship on the basis of traditionalinternational relations theories. Most ofthe things are in a state of fast flux. TheUS, China and other major powers are ina race to build hedges against uncertain-ties and India needs to do so. Neitherneo-non-alignment nor Cold War-based“containment” theories can help Indiashape a desirable relationship with theUS. Our allergy to the term “alliance”should be treated with a search for a newdefinition of the term and avoidance ofcritical ties with the US on issues ongrounds of fear of getting sucked into analliance!

(The author is Professor, Centre for American Studies, SIS, JNU, New Delhi)

TANK BUSTER: The AH-64 Apachegunship is widely tipped to be picked byIndia for its attack helicopter programme

BOEI

NG


ABSENCE OF ACREDIBLETHREAT TO

EUROPE HASMADE NATO AN

EXPENSIVEPROJECT


focuses on American technologicalstrengths and global reach.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta hasrecently given a series of speeches out-lining how the Obama Administrationis reconfiguring its forces to make itspresence in the Indo-Pacific have morecredibility, particularly by increasingthe number of naval vessels in theregion by cutting the size of America’sAtlantic fleet — thus creating a 60:40ratio of naval vessels between the twooceans.

So how does India fit into the Ameri-can strategy? Secretary Clinton listedIndia as one of the partners to “…tojoin us in shaping and participating in arules-based regional and global order”.Further, she spoke of “enhancing coor-dination and engagement among thethree giants of the Asia-Pacific: China,India, and the United States”. Yet it isnot clear how New Delhi wants to oper-ationalise its role in this process. TheOld Nehruvian consensus on foreignpolicy no longer exists in New Delhi, asnational and regional parties have dif-ferent foreign policy perspectives andon how to deal with the United States.

On the other hand, the objective ofthe United States and a number of

other countries in Asia is to make Chinaaccept the regional order that has exist-ed in the Asia-Pacific since the Nixonvisit to China in the 1970s — and thisconsequently led to four decades ofregional peace and prosperity. A Chinathat accepts order and does not seekhegemony — one that continues itsimpressive economic growth andrestrains its bellicose nationalism andmilitary forays — is the end game thatthe most nations of the Indo-Pacificseek. Part of achieving this order is tomake China realise that hegemonywould be expensive and would be con-tested, as Hugh White argues, by Russia,Japan, the United States and India. NewDelhi is cautiously starting to make

China aware of its strategic signifi-cance: the launching of the Agni 5 mis-sile and the Indian forays into SouthEast and East Asia are examples of Indianot sitting by passively and letting Chi-na dictate how the game of power poli-tics is played in Asia. In that senseIndia is working to broaden the politi-cal space in Asia, something that fitsinto Washington’s own vision for Asia.

What needs to be done, however, isfor India to start addressing how towork with Japan, China, and the UnitedStates to firm up the Asian order. Thiswill require moving away from the emo-tional border issue to discuss issues likesetting up an India-China free tradeagreement. In order to succeed it can-not solely be dictated from Washingtonor Beijing. The other influential nationsof Asia will have to participate.

(The author is an Associate Professorin the Department of International Security Studies at the United States Air Force Air War College, Maxwell

AFB, Alabama. The views expressed in this article are his and do not necessarily reflect those of either the United States Department of

Defense or the United States Air Force)

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THE GAME CHANGER: India is set tobecome the biggest operator of the BoeingC-17 Globemaster III after the US

AF.MIL


THE VIEW INISLAMABAD ISTHAT THE USDOES NOTRESPECTPAKISTANI

SOVEREIGNTY

www.geopolitics.in


IRAN’S NUCLEAR status is bewilder-ing the world and the internationalcommunity is struggling to try andput an end to the crisis. Internation-al organisations and the academic

communities are probing the nature andextent of the predicament, emphasisingand reporting on the status of the nuclearprogramme of Iran.

On its part, Teheran has been assertingthat it has an inalienable right to enrichand reprocess uranium. It has evenclaimed that it had crossed the thresholdand enriched to the level marked for

Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU). Itjust jumped out of the Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) bracket.

However, there is no indication tosuggest that it has achieved the ability tocreate Weapon Grade Uranium (WGU).

All the international players concernedare monitoring Iran’s status continuously:the United Nations Security Council((UNSC), the Interna-tional Atomic

Energy Agency (IAEA), the EuropeanUnion, Israel and the United States (US).The P-5 group of the UNSC, along withGermany, is struggling to find ways toresolve the crisis. But the P-5 itself lookslike a divided house. Except on certainfundamental issues raised in the UN Res-olutions, the P-5 is sending mixed signalsand the effectiveness of sanctions

imposed by the UNSCis under scrutiny.Other internationaland supranationalbodies have also notcontributed much totry and end the crisis.On May 25, 2012, theIAEA submitted yetanother report num-bered GOV/ 2012/23,and entitled, “Imple-mentation of theNuclear Non-Prolifer-ation Treaty (NPT)Safeguards Agreement

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IRANIAN PARADOX IRANIAN PARADOX There is no easy solution to the nuclearisation of Iran, writes RAJIV NAYAN


and relevant provisions of Security Coun-cil resolutions in the Islamic Republic ofIran”. As a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran signed asafeguards agreement with the IAEA,which has been operational since May1974. But since then, the internationalcommunity has witnessed phases of theIranian anger against the IAEA inspec-tion. Iran was often accused of not com-plying with the obligations of the NPTand the safeguards agreement with theIAEA. The IAEA Board of Governors sub-mitted a number of reports regarding theIranian non-cooperation, which in turn,prompted the UNSC to pass a few resolu-tions urging Iran to take corrective meas-ures. In 2010, the UNSC Resolution 1929asked Iran to abide by the safeguardsagreement and other subsidiary arrange-ments it had signed with the IAEA. It alsoasked Iran to ratify the Additional Proto-col and follow its provisions immediately.

However, the most significant part ofthe UNSCR 1929 was the instruction givento Iran to “cooperate fully with the IAEA onall outstanding issues, particularly thosewhich give rise to concerns about the pos-sible military dimensions of the Iraniannuclear programme…” The IAEA has beensubmitting its reports on the implementa-tion of binding obligations by Iran. Thisyear, the IAEA submitted its report in Feb-ruary as well, after Iran projected its new

enrichment technology and released clipsof scientists working in nuclear reactors.The May and February reports are more orless identical.

After the November 2011 IAEA Boardof Governors resolution, IAEA officialsand Iranian authorities held three roundsof dialogue this year. The third round ofdialogue was conducted in May 2012.About the earlier meetings in 2012, theIAEA report noted: “Iran and the Agency[IAEA] were unable to reach an agree-ment on a structured approach to theclarification of all outstanding issuesrelated to Iran”s nuclear programme; Iranprovided an initial declaration in which itdismissed the Agency”s concerns; theAgency presented Iran with initial ques-tions on Parchin and the foreign expert, 9to which the Agency has yet to receiveanswers; and Iran stated that it was notable to grant access to the Parchin site.”After the May 2012 dialogue, the IAEAreport observed: “During the talks, anumber of issues of mutual interest werediscussed, in particular the clarificationof issues relating to possible militarydimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme.During the meeting with Mr Jalili (SaeedJalili, the Iranian chief negotiator with P-5+1), it was decided to agree on a struc-tured approach.” The report acknowl-edged the continued difference betweenIran and the IAEA

Under the Iran-IAEA safeguards agree-ment, Iran declared 16 nuclear facilitiesand 9 facilities outside the declared facili-ties known as LoFs (Locations outsideFacilities). These LoFs are located in hos-pitals. The May 2012 IAEA reportinformed that since the February 2012report, Iran had notified an additionalfacility — the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant(FPFP). As per the report, “This was theresult of an administrative restructuringof ongoing activities that involved nophysical changes to Iran’s facilities.” TheMay report recorded that Iran had notexecuted the instructions of the UNSCResolutions or the IAEA Board of Gover-nors regarding halting enrichment, repro-cessing and heavy water production.

The report mentioned that Iran con-tinued to enrich uranium in the FuelEnrichment Plant (FEP) and Pilot FuelEnrichment Plant (PFEP) at the Natanzsite. The report found that Iran had beenincreasing activities in the FEP. Increasedactivities include setting up cascades andthe FEP produces LEU. The IAEA reportcomplained that Iranian authorities had

not provided all the details of the plant.The May 2012 IAEA report also noted:“During the period April 9 to April 14,2012, the operator at PFEP blendedapproximately 1.6 kg of UF6 enriched upto 20 per cent U-235 with approximately7.5 kg of natural UF6.” The moment theenrichment level is increased to 20 percent it is called HEU. However, the IAEAreport concluded that the PFEP had notundertaken any activity which it had notdeclared.

The report also maintained that For-dow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) hadbegun the production of both HEU andLEU since 2011. FFEP is located in adefence complex. Iran has promised toprovide more information about ongoingactivities at FFEP later. The IAEA alsoobserved that Iran had not provideddetails about the announcement of con-structing ten more uranium enrichmentfacilities. Iran had also announced that ithad begun work on five of them. TheIAEA also does not have any informationabout the Iranian announcement madeon February 7, 2010, in which it claimedto have laser enrichment technology. Itmaintains that Iran has not supplied anyinformation about it in its declaration.However, the May 2012 IAEA report gavean estimate about the amount ofenriched uranium: “According to the lat-est figures available to the Agency, Iranhas produced 6197 kg of UF6 enriched upto 5 per cent U-235 and 145.6 kg of UF6enriched up to 20 per cent U-235, since itbegan production of such material.”

The May 2012 IAEA report confirmedthe Iranian claim that it had not takenany reprocessing activities. The IranianHeavy Water Production plants, whichare supposed to be closed down as perthe UNSC resolution, are still function-ing. IAEA officials visited a Heavy Water Production facility on August 17, 2011.Since then, its repeated requests to visitthe Heavy Water Production sites had notbeen accepted.

The May report also discussed Urani-um Conversion Facility, Fuel Manufactur-ing Plant, Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant,design information, Additional Protocoland so on, in the context of the Iraniannuclear programme, and in general,expressed unhappiness because of theIranian opaque approach.

The report has a section on the “possi-ble military dimension”. The reportremarked that this dimension had beenviewed with concern in the international

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NUCLEAR IMBROGLIO: Iran hasinvited IAEA officials to visit theBushehr nuclear power plant

UTILITIES-ME.COM

community and in the IAEA. It wantedIran to come clean on it. Though only forthe Parchin site, it talked about satelliteimagery, which had observed some activi-ties. There were reports, which main-tained that Iran had tested a nucleardevice. Some newspapers published a fewpictures to corroborate it. The IAEA reportdid not mention the test explicitly butwanted the Iranian government to pro-vide information. The Iranian govern-ment, quite obviously, denied any suchmove. Similarly, the news that Iran woulddevelop a nuclear-fueled submarine isdisturbing the US, Israel and other coun-tries as they suspect that Teheran will nowclaim the right to enrich uranium up to 90per cent uranium under this new excuse.

The report commented on undisclosednuclear-related activities, including devel-opment of nuclear warhead and ballisticmissiles. The IAEA view is that these areunresolved issues, which can be solvedonly in cooperation with Iran. However,the IAEA blames Iran for not cooperatingwith it. Iran and others maintain that theIAEA findings on the ‘possible militarydimension’ is based on ‘a wide variety ofindependent sources’ which are nothingbut dubious sources of misinformationlaunched by anti-Iran forces. Already

Saeed Jalili, the Iranian chief negotiatorwith P-5+1, accused IAEA inspectors ofconducting espionage in Iran.

Thus, the ambiguity about the Iraniannuclear weapon is continuing. Even theIAEA report did not provide an authori-tative data on the weaponisation ofnuclear capability of Iran. It found Irannot complying with the UNSC resolu-tions as well as the decisions of theBoard of Governors of the IAEA. It alsoaccused Iran of not providing sufficientinformation on its nuclear activities. Forthe military perspective, it has to rely onindependent sources, which may not beaccepted by many.

As a result, the resolve of the interna-tional community regarding sanctionsimposed on Iran appears to be weaken-ing. A strong section of the internationalcommunity feels that Iran may be givensome space so that it is manoeuvred. Thethinking that the Iranian situation is notas alarming as portrayed, along with theenergy need of the countries overwhelm-ingly dependent on Iranian oil, is makingthe international community have arelook at the policy of sanctions on Iran.

Even the US adopted a lenientapproach towards some countries. Itsfamous “sanctions reprieve” announce-

ment assured a few countries that their oilimport from Iran would not face sanctionsfrom the US because they had substantial-ly reduced their dependence on Iranianoil. The countries, which were given thereprieve are India, Malaysia, Republic ofKorea, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey andTaiwan. Earlier, Japan and the EuropeanUnion countries had been extended relax-ation. However, issues such as transporta-tion of oil and insurance are still unre-solved. On the other hand, the Iraniangovernment maintains that the continuedoil embargo on Iran would make the glob-al market unstable. It got a big boost fromthe head of the Organisation of the Petro-leum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Abdul-lah El-Badri when he opposed hundredper cent embargoes against Iran.

So, should the world now completelyrule out the possibility of a war or a pre-emptive strike? No doubt, in the currentUS administration, war is a remote possi-bility. Israel”s security agencies, of late,too, demonstrated skepticism about a warand a pre-emptive strike. One of the for-mer heads of Mossad completely ruledout the military option. Even a top-levelserving Israeli official publicly stated thatpre-emptive strikes against Iran wouldnot be so easy. He said that the Iranianmilitary capability should not be underes-timated. However, in an opinion poll sur-vey in the US, it was found that a majorityof US citizens seriously believed that Iranwas developing nuclear weapons. Thismay lead to some pressure on the USadministration for toughening its policyvis-à-vis Iran. The toughening of the poli-cy may lead to the closure of the windowof opportunity to resolve the conundrum.

What ought to be done? The interna-tional community should work for a rea-sonable solution. This reasonable solu-tion includes no nuclear weapon for Iran.As it has signed the NPT and safeguardsagreement, it should provide informationto the IAEA about its nuclear facilities. Itwill be a solid confidence-building meas-ure. The element of rhetoric should becut down substantially. The best optionwould be its disappearance from officialor unofficial briefings of the parties con-cerned . And most importantly, pendingnuclear issues like nuclear disarmamentshould be pushed seriously. Nuclearreduction is not an answer.

(The author is Senior Research Associateat the Institute for Defence Studies and

Analyses, New Delhi)


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THE SMOKING GUN: This 2006 image shows Iranian facilities at Esfahan includingthe tunnel entrance near the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF).

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There have been memoirs written in the past by some senior Indian officers, such as Lt GensSPP Thorat, SD Verma, Harbaksh Singh, SK Sinha and JFR Jacob. Ex-Army Chief Gen VP Malikhas written, but about the Kargil War. General JJ Singh is thus, ironically, only the third Indian

Army Chief after Generals JN Choudhuri and Krishna Rao to write his memoir says General RAJ MEHTA in his review of the former Chief of Army Staff ’s autobiography A Soldier’s General

A SENSE OF DÉJÀ VU…OVERTAKES YOU

ASOLDIER’S General is loadedwith an interesting mix ofintense personal awareness, anengaging wonderment, sym-bolism, drama, patches of good

writing, avoidable repetition and a persist-ent feeling of déjà vu. The General in arecent interview candidly stated: “There isalways a dilemma in writing an autobiog-raphy — are you trying to praise yourselfmore than you should?” The reader gets toknow as the book progresses.

Divided chronologically into six parts,the book traces JJ’s truly enviable ancestry;joining the NDA; rising in ranks fromCadet to Colonel; thereafter holding vari-ous ‘star ranks’ till he becomes Chief inPart 4. Part 5 covers his current gubernato-rial assignment and Part 6 his concluding“Reflections”. An early feeling that stays

with you is that JJ, a self-declared “maver-ick”, is sometimes ungenerous. Thus Gen-eral JFR Jacob, who has recently suggestedthat he was the brain behind theBangladesh victory, draws his, perhaps notfully deserved, ire. In securing a rare ‘com-petitive’ vacancy in the Staff Collegeexams, JJ shows early on that he issuperbly professional and obsessivelycompetitive. His remarks, that being jun-ior, he was disadvantaged because “manysenior guys on the course” were armedwith (unethical) Previous Course Knowl-edge (PCK) leave insiders bemused.

That he has a most impressive ‘fieldprofile’, serving in hardship, often high-altitude areas becomes very clear in thebook and is laudable. His unit commandat Tezu, starts “with single-mindedresolve” to be the best. Selected to test anemerging warfighting concept (MobileDefence; whose ignorance by us led to dis-astrous consequences in 1962) after dis-agreement on its practicability vitiates theatmosphere, he describes how his placingof troop safety over exercise conduct leadsto postponement and subsequent no-vic-tor-no-vanquished conclusions. Absenceof an explanatory sketch/map here leavesthe reader bemused. Awarded Vishist SevaMedal (VSM) — a rare award for a CO incommand — he is detailed for the eliteHigher Command course. He proudly

notes that he was the first from his batchto do the course. Post a logistics posting,he is hand-picked for another unit com-mand and thereafter as Defence Attaché toAlgeria. In “perform or perish” commandof a brigade in North Kashmir, JJ writesthat he had to commence with sacking aCO for command dereliction. With changeof role to LoC guarding, JJ explains “how Isaved my goose from being cooked”. JJfound the area flush with terrorists, con-trary to his predecessor’s claims, and elim-inated most. Branded as “the thorn in theirflesh”, he was seriously wounded by terror-ists but courageously and speedilyreturned to command.

Chapter 13 describes in pulsatingRobert Ludlum fashion how JJ, branded asBrigadier ‘Shaitan Singh’ was ambushed inBaramula town. The anecdote is unfortu-nately backed by incorrect graphics/text(the Chowk shown in Sketch 13.1 is Tehsil,not Tashkent Chowk; the terrorists namesin Sketch 13.2 are indecipherable; Shera isactually Sheeri village. With 20 terroristsfiring rockets, machine guns, AKs andthrowing grenades, it sounds Rambo-likethat there were no fatalities during this dayambush. Awarded the Army Chief’s Com-mendation Card, JJ proceeded to the pres-tigious NDC course. Posted as AdditionalDirector General Military Operations(ADGMO ‘A’) after command of a Division,

A Soldier’s GeneralAuthor: General J J SinghPublisher: HarperCollinsPages: 400Price: `799

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gGen JJ’s charter was to handle ongoingoperations as well as border management.His counterpart, ADGMO ‘B’ handed oper-ational planning and a host of other oper-ational charters. The text does not unfor-tunately radiate this clarity.

JJ reiterates how the Siachen ‘losers’ tagled to the Pakistani misadventure at Kargil.JJ chooses to blame “forward troops andcommanders” for the early snafus. Com-pare this interpretation with that of hisChief, Gen VP Malik, in his book: “Kargil —From Surprise to Victory” and you get atotally different perspective. General Malikdetails grave Army, Intelligence, Political,Bureaucratic, Procurement and Planningfailures, ending by his “We shall fight withwhatever we have” take-away. Awarded anAVSM, JJ mistakenly does not mention thecontribution of the then Colonel (nowChief) Bikram Singh, his focused and capa-ble Director MO-2, who was the crediblemedia face of the Army.

Command of the battle-tested 1Corps, was JJ’s next “feather in the cap”.Pitched into ‘Exercise Mayhem’(piquantly named because it so accu-rately describes Clausewitz’ interpreta-tion of the nature of war), JJ says he tookumbrage and had it renamed as ExPoorna Vijay. JJ lashes out at un-named‘higher commanders’ who fail to giveclear directions/trash an exercise dur-ing conduct. It appears he took over adysfunctional Strike Corps given theblank looks he received from hisstaff/advisers during his firststaff/adviser conference. He expresseswonderment at being able (after pilot-led navigational glitches) to finally showan armour regiment kicking up dust tothe Defence Minister and Army Chief.

He is correctly critical of OperationParakram and its questionable ‘coercivediplomacy’ gains; listing ‘fuzziness andlack of clarity’ in the overall national strate-gy as the culprits. Incidentally, JJ writes thathe created a war memorial at his Head-quarters; displaying the Vijayanta tank ofthe 1971 war hero, 2/Lt Arun Khetarpal,PVC (Posthumous). The Poona Horse willhopefully ignore this typo because itfought the war with Centurions and retainsthe tank in which Khetarpal died. Promot-ed as Army Commander ARTRAC, theauthor says he authored the Army’swarfighting doctrine. As the Western ArmyCommander thereafter, he takes credit forthe creation of the South Western Com-mand and 9 Corps. With media buzz iden-tifying him as the next Chief, he sees him-self as ‘the natural successor’. Cautioned

about ‘dirty tricks’, he chooses to ‘guardone’s flanks…and leave the rest to destiny’.

The General candidly accepts beingovercome by emotion on his appointmentas Jangi Laat (Chief ). He cried. His goalwas that the Army be ‘optimally trained,equipped and structured; operate success-fully in a joint service environment… inshort; Fight to Win’. A version of his intentwas made available publicly; another first.His views on ‘The Security Perspective’, hispanning of the Cold Start strategy, hisviews on Internal Security and CounteringTerror invite a sense of déjà vu. “Iron-Fist-and-Velvet-Glove” is a born-again Britishstrategy forged in Malaya during 1948-60to combat insurgency. Kashmir is where itall began, during the enlightened rule ofBud Shah (Zain-ul-Abidin) in the 15th cen-tury. His people-centric rule combinedstrictness with tolerance, promotion of

public health, education, arts and crafts.Where Gen JJ can claim credit is that hemade people-friendly operations centralto his vision. That it has been refined/tak-en several notches up by the charismaticGen Ata Hasnain, finds no mention.

On the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS)conundrum, the General finds the currentsituation manageable. The CDS appoint-ment he feels, should be contingent to cre-ation of an integrated military hierarchy.The nuclear dimension draws praise for itscurrent status. Readers would have loved tohear his pragmatic take on today’s realpoli-tik practices and constraints in India Shin-ing; the SAARC/ SE/East Asian region butall they read is the existing party line. Thedisadvantages of holding a Constitutionaloffice are apparent as there is little intro-spection on India’s abysmal policy paraly-sis and state of operational readiness.

In terms of command and leadershipexperience, the author identifies seriousHR issues such as clever, time-pass offi-cers who try and hoodwink the system.He correctly brings out the importance offield service over ticket punching; writesabout out-of-the-box thinking; using thedirective style of command ‘esprit-de-corps’ and its optimum exploitation ledto his ‘consistently over performing’, heopines. He also emphasises ethics andprobity. One is, however, left wonderinghow much of this ‘loud thinking’ led toimprovements within the system andwhether that should not have been quan-tified. General JJ Singh clinically dismiss-es the allegations of having crafted a lineof succession resulting in marginalisationof General VK Singh’s tenure. His farewellas ‘Jangi Laat’ is a ‘Balle Balle’ affair, witha buggy, cavalry escort and fine dining —

Effective symbolism.Quixotically comparing himself

with Musharraf, he quotes MurtazaRazvi: “The tragedy is not thatMusharraf ran a banana republic butthat by the time he left…it had run outof bananas.” JJ writes that he seeshimself as ‘a maverick, the architect ofthe Indian Army’s doctrine…a Gener-al…who shoots from the hip and thelip’ (this review could easily be titled‘Have Gun, Will Travel! The author’sfinal ‘reflections’ reinforce his mind-sets. In a sequencing glitch, JJ pansStephen Cohen under ‘Force Restruc-turing’. Memoir writing in the West,unlike in India, is taken seriously.Julius Caesar’s insightful “Caesar’sCommentaries” are must-reads. Gen-eral Bill Slim’s Defeat into Victory is

widely regarded. His lack of ego, consis-tent references to errors in planning/judgment, and his deficiencies as a mili-tary commander vastly educate the read-er. By comparison, the India has laggedbehind. General SK Sinha’s A SoldierRecalls stands out in this genre. This rais-es the question; How does A Soldier’sGeneral rate? The reviewer objectivelyleaves the reader to decide; with thecaveat that its production values need anupgrade. Crammed with photos andgraphics, it has clarity problems in someand several typos/inadvertent errors,some already highlighted.

(Gen Raj Mehta, has commanded a Sec-tor [Brigade] at Anantnag, and the Bara-mula Division. He was Chief of Staff of 9Corps during the tenure of Gen JJ Singh)

www.geopolitics.in

DISTINGUISHED SERVICE : Defence MinisterAK Antony bidding farewell General JJ Singh inSeptember 2007


(78)

MANY STRATEGIC pundits have overlookedthe geopolitical significance of the recentdecision of the overseas arm of the state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Commission(ONGC), known as the ONGC Videsh Ltd.

(OVL), to pull out of an offshore oil block in Vietnam inthe disputed South China Sea (SCS) at a time when Chinawas raising sovereignty concerns over India’s oil explo-ration in the region.

Not long ago, Sun Weidong, Deputy Director Generalof Asian Department in the Chinese Ministry of ForeignAffairs, had said; “The region is a disputed area. There-fore, we don’t think to do so (to prospect for oil) is goodfor India,” adding that “the sovereignty of theislands in the region is a huge issue, and Indiashould not carry out oil exploration activitiesthere before the issue is resolved”.

China, Taiwan and five Southeast Asiancountries (Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, thePhilippines, and Vietnam) have conflictingclaims over islands and maritime zones in theSCS. Southeast Asian countries defend theirclaims in terms of international laws, in par-ticular the 1982 United Nations Convention on Law of theSea (1982 UNCLOS) that allows coastal countries exclu-sive economic zones extending from the edge of the terri-torial sea out to 200 nautical miles. Besides, in 2002, theSoutheast Asian states had negotiated a modus vivendiwith China in the form of a Declaration on Conduct ofParties in the South China Sea (DOC) to settle their dis-putes peacefully and not to upset the status quo.

On the contrary, China says that the entire SCSbelongs to it and is a region of “core national interest”,similar to Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang province. It evendemands that though other nations are allowed to navi-gate in the SCS, the movement of their military vesselsneeds its prior clearance, something countries such asthe United States and India refuse to accept on the soundinternational principles of “freedom of navigation”, “openaccess to maritime commons” and “respect for interna-tional law of the Sea (UNCLOS)”.

India so far had argued that its OVL was exploring oiland gas in Vietnamese-controlled territory, allowed underboth the UNCLOS and DOC. In 2006, OVL signed a con-tract with Petro Vietnam to jointly explore sectors 127 and128 in the Phu Khanh Basin in the SCS. In September2011, the OVL signed three additional deals to jointlyexplore oil and natural gas in these blocks. But these twoblocks have been at the centre of a diplomatic uproarbetween India and China. Of course, there are some oth-er blocks such as block 06.1 and Nam Con Son basinwhere OVL has stakes, but these areas have not comeunder Chinese objections as yet.

OVL relinquished block 127 last year after it encoun-tered dry wells and paid Vietnam $15 million as exit-fees.And in April, it decided to quit block 128, ostensiblyunder similar pleas, even though last year it had invested

$ 50 million in exploration there. Now, there may havebeen sound commercial reasons behind the decision butthe timing of the decision, particularly in the context ofthe Chinese opposition, raises many questions that mysources in the ministry of external affairs (MEA) havefailed to explain to me. In fact, I get a distinct impressionthat they are not happy with the OVL decision either.They concur that the timing of the OVL has dented India’srising international stature and weakened India’s mar-itime doctrine that says that developments in the SCShave a bearing on the Indian Ocean region. All told, about55 per cent of India’s trade with the Asia-Pacific transitsthrough the SCS.

There is a school of thought that everymajor power should be granted unchal-lenged geopolitical dominance in its sur-rounding region for the bigger cause of glob-al peace and stability. After all, so the argu-ments run, the United States had its Monroedoctrine, enunciated in 1823 by PresidentJames Monroe. It said that the United Stateswas entitled to “indisputable sovereignty”over the islands and waters within a line on

the map that enclosed the vast majority of the CaribbeanSea and the Gulf of Mexico and that these claims consti-tuted a “core interest” of the United States - an interest forwhich it was prepared to fight. So why should others denyChina its own Monroe doctrine of similar dominance inits areas of “core interests”?

There is a serious fallacy in the above argument. Oth-er than being an affront on the concept of “sovereignequality of States”, the Monroe doctrine, incidentally, wasaccepted - and this may sound a great irony - by all theneighbours of the United States, many of them resistingtheir colonial masters in Europe - Spain and Portugal. Inthat sense, the Monroe doctrine promoted and strength-ened the cause of independence of many Latin Americancountries. In a way, the doctrine also dissuaded the thensuperpower, Great Britain, from going to South Americafor new colonies. In contrast, none of the Chinese neigh-bours in Southeast Asia, not to speak of Japan, SouthKorea, Russia and Mongolia, is prepared to tolerate a Chi-na, which expands the scope and range of its “core inter-ests” every passing year.

On the other hand, will China ever allow India todevelop its Monroe doctrine in South Asia and the IndianOcean region? As it is, China does not even care aboutIndia when it builds the strategic projects in Pakistanoccupied Kashmir (PoK), a “disputed territory” like theSCS. Viewed thus, why should we legitimise two contra-dictory yardsticks of China - one in SCS and another inKashmir? But that is exactly what has happened afterOVL’s withdrawal.

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Right Angle

Prakash Nanda

A WRONG MOVE

Reg No.DL(E)-01/5363/2011-2013RNI No. DELENG/2010/35319Posting Date. 8-9/07/2012

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