abstract energy geopolitics
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Petroleum Production Engineering • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopoliticsand Eastern
Mediterranean
Michael J. Economides
Energy Geopoliticsand Eastern
Mediterranean
Michael J. Economides
©2011
![Page 2: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
NATURAL GAS • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
The Continuous Energy Crisis The Continuous Energy Crisis of the 21st Centuryof the 21st Century
Oil almost $150, then fell to below $40…headlines rule … “crisis”
OPEC has little excess capacity “behind the valve”, Venezuela, Nigeria, IraqChina still grows in economy and ener
Oil went over $100 (predicted for late 2010 - early 2011 in March 2010.) Middle East is the exclamation mark! Will be back over $100 soon.
![Page 3: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
![Page 4: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
80 90 00 10 20 300
10
20
30
40
50
60
80 90 00 10 20 300
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
80 90 00 10 20 30
1.71.7
1.41.4
2.22.2
1.51.5
1.21.2
0.80.8
2.12.1 9.59.5
1.51.5
2.72.7
2.22.2
1.01.0
1.51.5
5.95.9
2.22.2
Total Energy Other Energy Wind & Solar
HydroHydro
NuclearNuclear
Biomass,MSW
Biomass,MSW
Wind & Solar
OilOil
GasGas
CoalCoal
OtherOther
Growth Rate2003-2030, %
SolarSolar
Wind
MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE
Growth Rate1980-2003, %
1.6 1.7
11.111.1
Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources
![Page 5: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
![Page 6: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
There are no alternativesto hydrocarbon energy
sources in the foreseeable future
![Page 7: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Energy Geopolitics • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
![Page 8: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
NATURAL GAS • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
![Page 9: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
LNG Tanker Underway
Photo Courtesy of BP
![Page 10: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Globalization of Natural Gas Trade
Source: International Energy Agency and our own work
![Page 11: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
20-YR LNG EXPORT CONTRACT WITH BG AND MORE TO COME
$5.25 BILLION PROJECT WILL ALLOW TRANSIT OF LONGER AND WIDER SHIPS
![Page 12: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
NATURAL GAS • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy GeopoliticsThe Axis of Energy Militants
•Iran•Venezuela•Russia under Putin
•The quagmire that is Iraq
•China
![Page 13: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
NATURAL GAS • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
![Page 14: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
NATURAL GAS • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
![Page 15: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
NATURAL GAS • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Russia under Putin
•Bright spot in oil is gone•Re-Sovietization•Corruption•Total control of press•Investment climate has cooled down•Production is bound to decline
![Page 16: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
NATURAL GAS • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
![Page 17: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
NATURAL GAS • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
![Page 18: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
NATURAL GAS • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
CanCan
Keep the Lights On?Keep the Lights On?
![Page 19: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
NATURAL GAS • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
![Page 20: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
NATURAL GAS • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy: China’s Choke Point
![Page 21: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
NATURAL GAS • PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
China will probably lead
![Page 22: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
A Plan for Cyprus and Eastern Mediterranean Oil and Gas
Michael J. Economides
March 2012
![Page 23: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Overriding Philosophy
• Investment not welfare giveaways
• Control money influx to keep prices down
• Common Cypriots benefit from:– Direct investment through the IPO
– Through local companies participating in exploration and production
– Jobs through re‐investments
![Page 24: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Levant Basin Prospect Area
![Page 25: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Bulk Estimates
• Israel, total recoverable: 50 Tcf
• Eastern Mediterranean: 200 Tcf – USGS estimate
• My own analog for Cyprus: 50‐75 Tcf
![Page 26: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
What is a Tcf?
• Trillion cubic feet
• One billion thousand cubic feet (million Btu)
• 50 Tcf, means that ultimate recovery 50 Billion MBtu, at $8 translates to $400 billion from just the gas
• Cyprus needs about 100 million scf per day for electricity. 1 Tcf will provide 27 years of electricity.
![Page 27: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Levantine Basin
![Page 28: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Sequence of NOC events
• Cyprus NOC is launched immediately– Search for CEO (difficult to find at the required level) – likely a foreigner – politically problematic – if Cypriot, will be inexperienced – will need advising
– Need to staff NOC. Thematic coverage in E&P
• Legal framework of NOC– Cyprus oil and gas law
– Types of agreements
![Page 29: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Use Norway Model with Petrobras Modification
• 70 percent of NOC owned by Cyprus Sovereign Fund – Council of Ministers, Board of Directors
• 30 percent into an IPO on the basis of just the Aphrodite results. London, New York and Cypriot Stock Exchanges. Should raise $10 billion, minimum– Use the funds to finance infrastructure and participate actively in oil and gas development
![Page 30: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Sequence of Development Events• Facilitate the immediate construction of 8 in. gas pipeline from Israel’s Tamar (under fast development) to transport 100 MMScf/d, enough for 600 MW of electricity production. (About $500 million) Delek is interested
• Cyprus targets its zones for commercial development, not for gas for own use
![Page 31: Abstract energy geopolitics](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022052523/555747b7d8b42aa8378b4d64/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Sequence of Developments (Cont.)
• Unitize with Israel, facilitate aggressively their LNG development from Leviathan , three trains, about 20 MTPA (about 3 Bcf/d) , two 36 in. pipelines– Estimated costs $15‐ $20 billion from development banks (China Development Bank?)
– Significant security implications for decades
– Neutralizes Turkey