energy geopolitics by economides
TRANSCRIPT
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Petroleum Production Engineering PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
EnergyGeopolitics
Michael J.Economides
EnergyGeopolitics
Michael J.Economides
2008
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
T h e C o n t i n u o u s E n e r g y C r is i sh e C o n t i n u o u s E n e r g y C r i s i so f t h e 2 1 s t C e n t u r yf t h e 2 1 s t C e n t u r yOil almost $150, then far below $100
headlines rule crisis
OPEC has little excess capacity behindthe valve, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq
IEA (Nov. 2008) 9.1% decline in oil production
China has gone berserk
Saudi Arabia world regulator
$60 to $200 in 12 to 18 months
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
1977 Alaska8.4 Billion Barrels
2007 GOM22-45 Billion Barrels
GOM Headlines Rule No Peak Oil
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
S a u d i A r a b i a n T w i l i g h t a u d i A r a b i a n T w i l i g h t
NOW IN 5 LANGUAGES
Russian
Chinese
Spanish
Ko
rean
Available at Amazon.com or from Round Oak Publishing Company (1) 281-395-4783.
The Color Of Oil
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Consumption per Dollar of GDP
Source: DOE/EIA, 2008, Skov, 2000, DOC/BEA 2001,National Academy of Engineering, 1990
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
80 90 00 10 20 30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
80 90 00 10 20 30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
80 90 00 10 20 30
1.71.7
1.41.4
2.22.2
1.51.5
1.21.2
0.80.8
2.12.1 9.59.5
1.51.5
2.72.7
2.22.2
1.01.0
1.51.5
5.95.9
2.22.2
Total Energy Other Energy Wind & Solar
HydroHydro
NuclearNuclear
Biomass,MSW
Biomass,MSW
Wind & Solar
OilOil
GasGas
CoalCoal
OtherOther
Growth Rate2003-2030, %
SolarSolar
Wind
MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE
Growth Rate1980-2003, %
1.6 1.7
11.111.1
Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources
US Energy Consumption
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Quadrillion
B
Other
Hydroelectric
Nuclear
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil Transportation
Oil Products
13
27
23
23
8.1
3.42.8
Heating andElectric Power
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
National TransportationEnergy Perspective
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Q
uadrillionBTU
Other
Conventional Hydroelectric Power
Nuclear Power
Coal
Natural Gas
Imported Oil
Oil Transportation
Oil Products
Impor ted Oi l
Biofuels
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The New Energy Economy
Wood (1800s)
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Hydrogen(envisioned)
Increasingly:
Clean
Energy intensive
Technologicallysophisticated
Distributed
Carboncontent:
High
Medium
Low
(Zero)
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Golfing for Hydrogen
Bovine Brain Power > Mad Car Disease?
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
The Ethanol Scam
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There are no alternativesto hydrocarbon energy
sources in theforeseeable future
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Gwyneth Paltrow
Energy
Expert
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
TIME, AUGUST 26, 2002
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
What Climate Change?
Three points:Three points:Highly politicized. What to do about
it? Can anything be done? At whatcost?
Confusion (at times deliberate) betweenglobal warming and man-made effects
Preposterous: science all in. My offer:$10,000 for ONE peer-reviewed paper
showing causality between CO2 andincreased temperature. None exists
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Petroleum Production Engineering PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Group Income StatementFor the year ended 31 December 2005
$ million
200520062007
254,000266,000284,000Total revenues
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Price of Oil and ExxonMobil Stock
EnergyGeopoliticsThe Axis of Energy Militants
IranVenezuelaRussia under Putin
The quagmire that is Iraq
China
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Russia under Putin
Bright spot in oil is gone
Re-Sovietization
Corruption
Total control of press
Investment climate has
cooled down
Production is bound
to decline
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Gazproms New Imperium
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Transparency International CPI, 2007
Denmark Finland New Zealand
Singapore Sweden
Iceland
RANK SCORE
1
4
6
9.4
9.3
9.2
United States20 7.2
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
and the Energy Militants
Iran
Indonesia Russia
Nigeria
RANK SCORE
131
143
147
2.5
2.3
2.2
Myanmar
162
1.4179
Venezuela 2.0
Somalia
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Georgia War
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Ch inaCh inaCanCan
Keep the Lights On?Keep the Lights On?
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Will China
Break Through?
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
China Oil Consumption
In the last decade Chinas oilconsumption increased by 3.5million barrels per day, the largestin the world by far.
If China were to use the same percapita consumption, as the US, itwould require 80 million barrels
per day (more than the entireworld use.)
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
China and Russia Energy will be Chinas choke point
Has become recently very assertive,if not belligerent.
Sudan, Nigeria
Canada
Venezuela
Chinas energy future passesthrough Russia.
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Russia and China
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Russia, China and Japan
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Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
Another view of oil prices
Energy Geopolitics PROF. M. J. ECONOMIDES
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