Food Security Futures Conference, CGIAR-FAO, Dublin, Ireland, 10-11 April

Food Security Futures: some comments from a Brazilian perspective

Geraldo B. Martha Jr.

Agricultural Productivity Scenarios and Links to Climate Change Models

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

300,0

350,0

1990

19

91 19

92 19

93 19

94

1995

19

96 19

97 19

98 19

99 20

00 20

01 20

02 20

03 20

04

2005

20

06 20

07 20

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09 20

10

2011

Ann

ual r

eal f

ood

pric

e (2

002-

2004

=100

)

Food Price Index Meat Price Index Dairy Price Index Cereals Price Index Oils Price Index Sugar Price Index Technology adoption versus

relative prices;

Relative prices versus land-competition;

Relative prices versus food supply, price volatility and (exploitable) yield gaps;

FAO (2011)

G.B.Martha, work in progress, data from IBGE.

Technology adoption vs. price effects

IBGE database, Martha, Jr. (2012).

Technology adoption vs. price effects

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

Rice Beans Corn Soybean Wheat

Yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

2010 avg. Top Producers Research

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50,00

100,00

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350,00

R+B+C+S+W

Mill

ion

tons

2010, avg. Top Producers Research

Increase

Top prod.: 36%

Research: 134%

Crop-land area constant, 2010 values

Agriculture production potential in Brazil

Martha Jr. (2012).

Technology adoption vs. novel systems effects

0-10 cm 0-30 0-50 cm

Technology adoption vs. Climate Change effects

Sousa et al., 1996.

Stocking rate LWG Productivity

hd/ha (kg/hd) (kg PV/ha/yr)

0,4 100 40

0,7 120 84

1,1 135 149

1,6 160 256

Land-saving effect

(ha spared/ha recovered)

-

1,1

2,7

5,4

G.B.Martha Jr. (work in progress).

Technology adoption vs. land-saving effects

Metrics, Prices, and Short vs. Long-term Trends

MCT (2010).

Economist (2012 and 2013).

Embrapa's R&D Efforts

Agricultural R&D investiments - the case of Brazilian Embrapa

Martha Jr. & Lopes (2013), data from IBGE and Embrapa.

Around 90% of the ag. research effort in Brazil is public;

From 50% to 60% of Brazilian public investment in agricultural R&D goes to Embrapa;

Agricultural Development in a More Broad Context

1) Considering specific regional characteristics and resource endowments and possibilities to foster an inclusive low-carbon emission agriculture strategy: a) What is the cost of this new technology and its economic return / cash flow in comparison with technologies that are already in use in farms?

b) What is the new technology’s opportunity cost considering other eligible agricultural activities in the region? How robust is the new technology’s comparative economic performance considering a range of relative prices and terms of trade?

c) If this new technology is well implemented in farms, what is the potential to generate strong backward and forward linkages and thus foster virtuous cycles of development in rural areas?

Issues for Large-Scale Adoption of Low-Carbon Agricultural Technologies

Martha Jr. & Vilela (2013).

1) Considering specific regional characteristics and resource endowments and possibilities to foster an inclusive low-carbon emission agriculture strategy: d) What are the major changes required in infrastructure and supply chain arrangements relative to a business as usual scenario (and their associated timeline)?

e) How dependent on (distorting vs. non-distorting) incentives is such strategy and for how long?

Issues for Large-Scale Adoption of Low-Carbon Agricultural Technologies

Martha Jr. & Vilela (2013).

2) What is needed to better integrate poor farmers to the value of chain and to increase their competitiveness in a low-carbon emission agriculture era? What are the implications for their well-being and for the rural-to-urban migration process?

Issues for Large-Scale Adoption of Low-Carbon Agricultural Technologies

3) How do distortions to agricultural prices ultimately affect the adoption of low-carbon emission technologies in the agricultural sector in developed, developing and poor countries or in different regions inside a given country? 4) How can a widespread adoption of low carbon emission technologies in agriculture eventually affect the volatility of food supply and prices, and what are their regional welfare impacts? How factors of production in the economy will adjust to such a stimulus?

Martha Jr. & Vilela (2013).

Embrapa's Strategic Intelligence System

"Targeting possible futures, their challenges, solutions and opportunities for the technological development of

Brazilian Agriculture"

The solely form of forecasting the future is to build it (Antonio Delfim Netto, May 2012)

Thank You !