Gerard J. Eding & Marcel Pommée

Revision of the Dutch National accounts Experiences from the publication of our first results.

A revision resembles a renovation…

... with an outcome to be proud of…

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…and eagerness to show it to the world.

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The revision/renovation of the Dutch National Accounts

– Truly a major challenge, 3 years of preparation

– Conceptual and statistical (benchmark) revision, simultaneously

– Grand opening March 2014, First in Europe

– But how to show it to the world…..

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Gross domestic product (gdp) 2010bln euro

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+ 44,7 billion euro= 7,6 %, of which:• 3,0 %

concepts• 4,6 %

datasources

Government Finance Statistics 2010% gdp

– Debt from 5.1% to 5.0%– Deficit from 63.4 to 59.0 %

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Gross national income (GNI) 2010bln euro

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+ 57,7 bln euro= 10,0 %, of which:

• 7,6 % gdp• 2,3 % primairy

income

Trade balancebln euro

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+ 5,5 billion euro= 11,7 %

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adjustment trade balanceTrade balance before revi-sion

We have the figures, but how to communicate these to the public……

….preferably in an early stage to prepare our users?

Two scenario’s:1. A revision is a major statistical event and should

receive a lot of media attention2. A revision is an important event for the Statistical

Bureau itself and communication should be well-balanced and directed

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Towards a communication strategy…

– A suitable date for the publication of the first results?

– Learning from other experiences, e.g. Eurostat, US, etc.

– Five risks/issues covered before deciding:1. Simultaneous statistical and conceptual revision 2. Impact statistical revision substantial3. Communication dynamics in a ever changing

sphere4. Embargo and publication policy5. Amount of data to be presented

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Further preparation procedures

– Special training for spokesman, – Preparing for difficult questions – Try-outs– Technical steering group, Directors monitoring

group

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1st Communication, February 10th 2014

– Main trigger: forthcoming Eurostat press release

– Informing users about the reasons for a revision:• Conceptual, benchmark and European regulations• Indication of approximate seize of benchmark

revision• Information on economic growth, public deficit and

gni-contribution• Planned dates of publications: results for 2010 and

time-series13

Presentation for stakeholders on March 3th, 2014

– Session 3 days before press release:• Major stakeholders; Central Bank, Ministry of

Finance, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

• Presentation with detailed results + Q&A.• Presentation including ‘problematic issues’:

government deficit higher in absolute terms, household savings not negative, major adjustments in international investment position.

• General repetition for official release, gain experience, ask for suggestions for improvement, addressing questions.14

Official release of revision results on March 6th, 2014

– Press release with main results (gdp, gni, GFS)

– Technical press meeting (results and backgrounds)

– Additional technical publication with elaborate text on the major changes, • with standard tables and• all figures decomposed into conceptual and

benchmark adjustments

– Pro-active contact with major user/stakeholders15

Conclusion and evaluation

– Picked up as anticipated with headlines as:• Dutch economy 8% larger after revision of

Statistics Netherlands• 45 billion euros richer, after new international

definition gdp• Public debt weights less on economy

– Not very much attention in the printed press, only few journalists at meeting

 Was this thorough preparation

(and all the fuss) necessary after all?16

A quote from our Minister of Finance

In the new calculations illegal activities like prostitution and drugs trafficing are included in the size of the economy. Jeroen Dijsselbloem doesn’t want to comment on this:

“It is not my task. Statistics Netherlands and Eurostat set the definitions and they do that independently of politics. And that is how it should be. Otherwise politicians might

want to influence the figures. And in this way we can’t even be tempted.”

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And we made it to the cartoons… ;-)

And if you do not add that number?And put the comma in this position?And put that number in the left column?

We’re rich!!! We’re filthy rich!!

New calculations make GDP grow with 45 billion euros

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