getting in the right lane for 2050 - choisir une...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Getting in the Right Lane for 2050
From vision to strategy for energy‐related issues
Prof. Dr. Maarten HajerNetherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency
![Page 2: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Getting in the Right Lane for 2050
2050: Europe is a low carbon society
![Page 3: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Vision
2050: Europe as a low carbon society
Low carbon: important trade offs and synergies with: Energy security
Competition for land and water: i.e. food, bio‐energy and biodiversity
Transport and mobility
Approach:Zooming in from global to EU
Long‐term visions (2050) to near‐term strategic choices EU
EU key tools and global leverage: making it work
3
![Page 4: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Climate change as risk:
the rationale of the two‐degrees target4
![Page 5: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Stabilizing climate change
Decrease of emissions worldwide 50%, Annex‐1 does 80‐95%Vision for EU: 80% less GHG emitted within EU itselfStrong diversification improves security of supply
5
![Page 6: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
System inertia6
![Page 7: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The contours of a low carbon society in fours:
1. an energy system emitting 80 % less greenhouse gases
85% of EU energy from carbon neutral sources.
Example modelling shows that this is attainable
with technologies identifiable today.
7
![Page 8: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
The contours of a low carbon society in fours:
2. primary energy use8
One
option: focus on
CCS + 20% renewables.
Cost‐efficient
on
the basis of current
expectations.
Prudent to
maintain
diversity.
![Page 9: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The contours of a low carbon EU in fours:
3. energy use of buildings12
![Page 10: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
The contours of a low carbon EU in fours:
4. transport13
![Page 11: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Vision 2050: Low‐carbon
European
transport systems
Carbon dioxide emissions from transport in 2050 are 80% less than in 1990 This includes aviation and shipping European transport systems:reliable
efficient
robust to fluctuations in fuel prices
optimally support the EU economy
14
![Page 12: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
A route towards low carbon EU transport15
![Page 13: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Land resources, food, biodiversity16
![Page 14: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Biodiversity: trend is continued
decline17
![Page 15: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Biodiversity: trend is continued decline
Least decline in tundra, boreal forest, deserts
18
![Page 16: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Land and water resources, vision
2050
World: food for allwith minimal loss of biodiversity and an end to the loss in 2050
EU alsonurture diversity in European agricultural practices, as a buffer against ‘shocks’ in a very crowded world
Therefore,
bio‐energy
…
19
![Page 17: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Estimates
for
bio‐energy
potential
2050
100 EJ/year
by
2050
Impacts will need to be monitored.
Amount is on the low end of the range.
Seems implementable
20
![Page 18: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Targeted allocation of bio‐energy needed in EU
Limited, uncertain potential... Adds claim on agricultural resources…… but important ingredient
Vision: used where largest benefit modest amount
Requires long‐term vision & purposive EU‐directive
21
![Page 19: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
European electricity grid to capture full potential of renewables:
example off‐shore wind23
VIGO (PT)
TALIN (EE)
GDANSK (P)
ABERDEEN (S)
Wind Electricity Costs
in 2020
North
Sea
Capacity
> 100 GW
Grid
connection
is key
![Page 20: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
A low‐carbon EU energy system: how to get there?24
![Page 21: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Now is the moment to get in the right lane
Opportunities economic crisisNeed for long‐term vision and frameworkWhile the EU is still an influential power
Picture the EU in the
world of 2050
25
![Page 22: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Key notions in this study
Low carbon society requires systemic changeBe aware of system inertia
Interim solutions (typicaly 2020‐2030) may easily create lock‐in
New technologies require massive acceleration by 2020‐2030 to reach visions
Flexibility by 2050 requires planning now e.g. long‐term allocation of biofuels
26
![Page 23: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Key notions in this study (2)
EU predominantly an economic power; regulation and product standards its key tools
EU regulation has global leverage
Leverage shrinks towards 2050
Solving upcoming global disputes on land resources, food and biodiversity: analogy with climate policy development over the past 25 years may help to find format, build alliances, save time
27
![Page 24: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
From long‐term vision for the planet …
… to near‐term action for EU
EU leadership climate agreements
cofinancing action by non‐Annex I countries;
push in aviation and marine
Role for EU indispensableE.g. electricity grid
Demand side needs to be balanced, too
Technology ‘supply side’ is not enough
28
![Page 25: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Planning for
2050
Planning is persuasive storytelling
About
the future (James Throgmorton)
29
![Page 26: Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 - Choisir une langueec.europa.eu/environment/archives/greenweek2009/sources/... · 2014. 4. 22. · (James Throgmorton) 29. Getting in the Right](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022012003/60acb6b0d42def040566eef5/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Getting in the Right Lane for 2050 – a primer for a debate
Comments welcome!
32
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency,
Visit
us at www.pbl.nl