glenn peters, faglig innlegg mdg lsm 14.06.2014
TRANSCRIPT
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Governing the willingness to extract, combust and consume less carbon
Miljøpartiet de Grønne June 14, 2014 (11-12)
Glen Peters
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO) Email: [email protected] Twitter: @Peters_Glen
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Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions
Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC in 2012, 58% over 1990 Projection for 2013 : 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC, 61% over 1990
With leap year adjustment: 2012 growth rate is 1.9% and 2013 is 2.4%
Source: Le Quéré et al 2013; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013
Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)
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Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios
Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrial Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC
Fossil fuel and cement emissions only Linear interpolation is used between individual data points
Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013
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Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios
Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrial Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC
Fossil fuel and cement emissions only Linear interpolation is used between individual data points
Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013
Short-term • Reverse emission trajectory • Emissions peak by 2020
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Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios
Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrial Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC
Fossil fuel and cement emissions only Linear interpolation is used between individual data points
Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013
Medium-term • Sustain emission trajectory • Around 3%/yr reductions globally
Short-term • Reverse emission trajectory • Emissions peak by 2020
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Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios
Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrial Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC
Fossil fuel and cement emissions only Linear interpolation is used between individual data points
Source: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013
Short-term • Reverse emission trajectory • Emissions peak by 2020
Medium-term • Sustain emission trajectory • Around 3%/yr reductions globally
Long-term • Net negative emissions • Unproven technologies
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How to share the mitigation challenge?
Depending on perspective, the importance of individual countries changes
GDP: Gross Domestic Product in Market Exchange Rates (MER) and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013
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Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)
Top five emitters in 2012 covered 63% of global emissions China (27%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (6%), Russia (5%)
With leap year adjustment in 2012 growth rates are: China 5.6%, USA -4.0%, EU -1.6%, India 7.4%, Russia 4.8%. Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013
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Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita)
Average per capita emissions in 2012 China is growing rapidly and the US is declining fast
Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013
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Historical Cumulative Emissions by Country
Cumulative emissions from fossil-fuel and cement were distributed (1870–2012): USA (26%), EU28 (23%), China (11%), Russia (8%), and India (4%) covering 71% of the total share
Cumulative emissions (1990–2012) were distributed USA (20%), EU28 (15%), China (18%), Russia (6%), India (5%) Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
The mitigation challange
• “Common but differentiated” leads to fragmented policies
• Strong, weak, none • Global commons
• “Free rider” problems • Relevant in a global economy
• Carbon leakage • Competiveness concerns
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
CARBON FOOTPRINTS
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and services consumed in country X
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and services consumed in country X Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and services consumed in country X Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports
Production
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and services consumed in country X Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports
Production
Exp Domestic
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and services consumed in country X Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports
Production
Exp Imp Domestic
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and services consumed in country X Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports
Production
Exp Imp
Consumption
Domestic
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Dealing with fragmentation
Global emissions allocated to the goods and services consumed in country X Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports
Production
Exp Imp
Consumption
Domestic The adjustment for
international trade is the key factor
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Large share of consumer emissions are territorial
“Imported” emissions
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Consumption-induced: The increase in net import into Annex B countries 1990-2008 was five times greater than the achieved emission reduction
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Policy-induced: Negligible effect 0.3% of territorial
Consumption-induced: The increase in net import into Annex B countries 1990-2008 was five times greater than the achieved emission reduction
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Carbon leakage
• Policy-induced carbon leakage • Caused by climate policy • Small at today’s carbon prices
• Consumption-induced carbon leakage
• Caused by a changing division of labour • Increased consumption, met by imports • Large, but not related to carbon prices
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Carbon footprints and scale
• Scale is important for footprints
• Big country, small share imported
• Small country, large share imported
• City, most imported
• Household, all imported
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
City and the Hinterland GHG t/household Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Greater
Hobart Canberra Darwin
GHG Footprint 52.9 66.8 63.3 51.4 69.3 44.3 58.3 50.1
GHG Footprint - Domestic 12.3 16.2 15.6 16.2 11.4 5.3 4.7 10.2
GHG Footprint - Import 40.5 50.5 47.7 35.2 57.9 39.0 53.6 39.8
Share imported (%) 77 76 75 69 84 88 92 80
70-90% of carbon footprint imported!
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
City and the Hinterland GHG t/household Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Greater
Hobart Canberra Darwin
GHG Footprint 52.9 66.8 63.3 51.4 69.3 44.3 58.3 50.1
GHG Footprint - Domestic 12.3 16.2 15.6 16.2 11.4 5.3 4.7 10.2
GHG Footprint - Import 40.5 50.5 47.7 35.2 57.9 39.0 53.6 39.8
Share imported (%) 77 76 75 69 84 88 92 80
y = 0.8955x1.0911 R² = 0.9869
1.0
10.0
100.0
1 10 100
GHG Footprint vs Income 70-90% of carbon footprint imported!
Income dominates footprints, other factors (urban form,
house size, etc) are marginal
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
ε=0.35
Food
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
ε=0.77
Clothing
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
ε=0.79
Manufacturing and Industry
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
ε=0.85
Mobility services
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
ε=0.23
Housing
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
ε=0.85
Infrastucture
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
ε=0.88
Electricity, gas, water
101
102
103
104
101
102
103
104
ε=0.61
Services and retailing
East AsiaSouth-East Asia and OceaniaSouth AsiaNorth AmericaSouth AmericaEuropeRussian Federation and former SovietMiddle East and North AfricaAfrica
Consumption (USD/capita)
Em
issi
ons
(CO
2-eq/
capi
ta)
Consumption by income
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Consumption policies
• Country level consumption cap, border carbon adjustment
• Complex, equity issues • Financial transfers along trade flows
• Labelling • Generally ineffective
• Information (less meat, less flights, ...) • Not effective at the aggregate (nationally)
• Rebound effects
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
FOSSIL FUELS
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
The emissions supply chain
Production (Territorial)
(Combustion)
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
The emissions supply chain
Consumption (Carbon Footprint)
Production (Territorial)
(Combustion)
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
The emissions supply chain
Extraction Production
Consumption (Carbon Footprint)
Production (Territorial)
(Combustion)
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
The emissions supply chain
Extraction Production
Consumption (Carbon Footprint)
Production (Territorial)
(Combustion)
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Trade and Carbon
Relevant in two ways
1. Trade in fossil fuels (physical) 2. Trade in goods and services (embodied)
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Major Flows from Extraction to Production
Start of Arrow: fossil-fuel extraction End of arrow: fossil-fuel combustion
Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=GtC/1000 Source: Peters et al 2012b
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Major Flows from Production to Consumption
Start of Arrow: fossil-fuel combustion End of arrow: goods and services consumption
Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=GtC/1000 Source: Peters et al 2012b
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Major Flows from Extraction to Consumption
Start of Arrow: fossil-fuel extraction End of arrow: goods and services consumption
Values for 2007. EU27 is treated as one region. Units: TgC=GtC/1000 Source: Peters et al 2012b
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Responsible Norway?
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Car
bon
(MtC
O2)
Extracted oil: 10432 MtCO2Extracted gas: 3491 MtCO2
Proven oil reserves: 3105 MtCO2Proven gas reserves: 4194 MtCO2
Glen Peters (CICERO)Extracted Oil (BP)Extracted Gas (BP)Territorial emissions (CDIAC)
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Net trade per capita
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Norwegian GHG emissions
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
EQUITY
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Consumption more just?
• “Emissions should be allocated to consumption because it is fairer”
• Consumption policies implicitly/explicitly put a price on imports
• Developing countries are worse off! • (they have to mitigate our consumption) • Offset this by financial transfers
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Extraction more just?
• “It is fairer to make fossil fuel exporters pay for the carbon they extract”
• Revenue • Could be used for financial transfers • Buy support for carbon price by letting
extractors keep the income
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
POLICY IMPLICATIONS
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
The policy problem
• Differential carbon pricing Countries unwilling to deepen and broaden climate policies unilaterally
• Two main issues • Competitiveness concerns (economic) • Carbon leakage (environmental)
• International trade is a key factor
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Extraction Extractors collect tax revenue
In principle easy
Production/Territorial Easy and status quo
Fragmentation, free riders, carbon leakage
Consumption Puts focus on key drivers Complex (and uncertain)
Alternate carbon policy
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miljøpartiet de grønne 14/06/2014
Thank you
I would love some questions
folk.uio.no/glen
Twitter: @Peters_Glen