global commercial vehicle powertrain systems market
TRANSCRIPT
1
Global Commercial Vehicle Powertrain Systems MarketClear Signs of Growth in Demand for Automated and Automatic Transmissions
Sandeep Kar- Global Manager- Commercial Vehicle Research
May, 2010
2
Global Commercial Truck Production: Polarization of Truck Classes Implies Growth in LCV and HCV Segments
17.89 Million CV
2008
23.49 Million CV
2020
Heavy CV 15.4%
Medium CV 4.3%
Light CV 80.3%
Heavy CV 16.9%
Medium CV 7.1%
Light CV 76.0%
2008 2020
Europe North America Asia Others
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
LCV MCV HCV
Un
it (
Th
ou
san
d)
LCV MCV HCV
HCV1.5%HCV1.5%
LCV2.8%LCV2.8%
MCV1.9%MCV1.9%
Navistar ProStarNavistar ProStar Scania R-SeriesScania R-Series Mercedes ActrosMercedes Actros Ford ConnectFord Connect Nissan AtlasNissan Atlas TATA ACETATA ACEHino 185Hino 185
3
Case in Point: Chinese and Indian CV Markets Show Strong Polarization Trends
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2015
HDT MDT LDT
18.3%18.3% 21.0%21.0% 26.5%26.5% 28.1%28.1%15.1%15.1% 13.8%13.8% 12.9%12.9% 10.8%10.8%
66.6%66.6% 65.2%65.2% 60.6%60.6% 61.1%61.1% 60.6%60.6%
9.3%9.3%
30.1%30.1%
YearYear
100
80
60
40
20
0
Market Share (%)Market Share (%)
HeilongjiangHeilongjiang
JilinJilin
LiaoningLiaoning
HainanHainan
YunnanYunnan
GuizhouGuizhou
SichuanSichuan
QinghaiQinghaiNingxiaNingxia ShanxiShanxi
HenanHenan
ShandongShandong
JiangsuJiangsu
AnhuiAnhui
FujianFujianJiangxiJiangxi
HunanHunan
HubeiHubei
HebeiHebeiTianjinTianjin
ShanxiShanxi
ChongqingChongqing
NeimengguNeimenggu
GuangxiGuangxi
GansuGansu
Provinces Taking the Policy of Charge-by-Weight (China), 2008
LDT, MDT, HDT Truck Sales Ratios: (China), 2008-2015
Rising Volume of Containerized Freight (India), 2008-2015
Rising Demand for Heavy Trucks- Volvo’s Market Share Growth (India),
4
In Europe the LCV Segment is Expected to Experience a CAGR of 2.4 Percent (2008-2013)
LCVs Powered by Diesel Engines (55% Penetration Forecast for 2015-2020) and
Featuring Stepped MTs willPrevail..DCT, ATs will
Gain Penetration
LCVs Powered by Diesel Engines (55% Penetration Forecast for 2015-2020) and
Featuring Stepped MTs willPrevail..DCT, ATs will
Gain Penetration
5
Demand Analysis: Trucks by Transmission Type (North America),
Trucks in Operation by Class Type (2009)Trucks in Operation by Class Type (2009)
56%
27%11% 8%
42%
69%82% 84%
55.5%
2% 3%
4%
7% 8%
41.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Class 4 Class 5 Class 6 Class 7 Class 8
Tru
cks
in O
per
atio
n (
%)
Automatic Automated Manual
New Truck Sales by Transmission Type (2009)New Truck Sales by Transmission Type (2009)
81% 78%65%
19% 22%35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New
Tru
ck S
ales
(%
)
Manual Automatic
New Truck Sales Forecasts (2005 – 2015)New Truck Sales Forecasts (2005 – 2015)
Demand for automatic and automated transmissions for Class 6-8 trucks is forecast to increase until 2015 because they are easier to operate and are more fuel efficient
In 2015, automatics/automated will represent almost 35% of new truck sales, rising from 22% in 2008.
In 2008, Class 8 production trucks had the highest concentration of automated manual transmissions (11%).
Both are more costly than manuals to maintain (require more fluid), repair, reman/rebuild (much more complex).
Automatics cost 20 to 30% more than manuals. Comparatively, automated manuals are cheaper and cost 10-15% more than manuals.
58%
35%19% 12%
40% 42%58%
72% 77%
55.5%11%
9%
7%
2.5%2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Class 4 Class 5 Class 6 Class 7 Class 8
New
Tru
ck S
ales
(%
)
Automatic Automated Manual Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2008. Source: Frost & Sullivan
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End User Research: Key Desired Benefits of Powertrain Technologies Among Managers of Largest Fleets in U.S. Point Towards Automated/Automatic Transmissions as Solutions
Highest Ranking Benefits of Powertrain Technologies(N=109)
59%
17%
5%
5%
6%
17%
19%
20%
9%
6%
6%
6%
6%
12%
18%
22%
10%
10%
8%
8%
5%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fuel Efficiency
Reliability
Reduced Maintenance Requirement
Longer Lifecycle
Attractive Lifecycle Costs
Effectiveness Under All Operating Conditions
Residual Value
Reduce Idling
Lower Weight Penalty
Low Level Emissions
Acces to Powertrain Support Infrastructure
#1 ranking #2 ranking #3 ranking
Note: Proportions less than three not shown numerically in chart.
Q: When purchasing powertrain technologies, please rank the top three benefits that are most important to your fleet from the following list below?
Automated/Automatic
Trannies Offer Solutions But
Pose Challenges Too!!
Solutions
Fuel Efficiency, Reduced Maintenance,, Residual
Value
Challenges
Lifecycle Costs, Weight Penalty, Access to Support
Infrastructure
Source: Frost & Sullivan
7
Future Intentions of Automatic/Automated Transmissions Technologies Among Fleet Managers in U.S.
Familiarity with Automatic/Automated
Transmission Technologies
51%
27%
36%
37% 17%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Automatic(N=89)
Automated(N=97)
Very FamiliarSomewhat FamiliarNeitherSomewhat UnfamiliarVery Unfamiliar
87% are familiar with Automatic
Transmission.
64% are familiar with Automated
Transmission.
Q: How likely are you to consider automatic/automated transmissions over manual transmissions in future new truck purchases?
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Rising Awareness and Demand for Automatic andAutomated Transmissions
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Fuel Efficiency Enhancement of Trucks Through A Combination of Modifications and Regulatory Support
Source: Frost & Sullivan
2007 2015
Hybrid Powertrain
Electronic Controls andModulation
Class 6-8 Truck Fuel Efficiency Enhancement
Automated/Automatic
Transmission
AdvancedTurbocharger
Smaller Engine, Camless
Engine
Powertrain Systems Modifications for Hybrid Trucks
AuxiliaryPower Unit
AdvancedThermal
Management
Lightweight Structural andBody Materials
Air-Disc Brakes, Regenerative Braking
Lighter Fuel Tank
Vehicle GeometryAerodynamic Modifications
Fuel Injection,Valve ActuationImprovements
Low Resistance Tires
Reduced EngineFriction Reduced Trailer Gap
HigherLoads
LesserCongestion
OptimumSpeed
Other Design Modifications
Regulatory Support
Low-viscosity Lubricants
Hybrid Powertrain
Electronic Controls andModulation
Truck Fuel Efficiency Enhancement
Automated/Automatic
Transmission
AdvancedTurbocharger
Smaller Engine, Camless
Engine
Powertrain Systems Modifications for Hybrid Trucks
AuxiliaryPower Unit
AdvancedThermal
Management
Lightweight Structural andBody Materials
Air-Disc Brakes, Regenerative Braking
Lighter Fuel Tank
Vehicle GeometryAerodynamic Modifications
Fuel Injection,Valve ActuationImprovements
Low Resistance Tires
Reduced EngineFriction Reduced Trailer Gap
HigherLoads
LesserCongestion
OptimumSpeed
Other Design Modifications
Regulatory Support
Low-viscosity Lubricants
9
(0.3)
-
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
10.0% 60.0% 110.0% 160.0%
Bus NA
Bus EU
HCV NA
HCV EU
MCV NA
MCV EU
LCV EU
LCV NA
CAGR
Pro
duct
ion
Vol
umes
in 2
009
(in th
ousa
nds)
Bubble size represents production volumes in 2016
(0.3)
-
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
10.0% 60.0% 110.0% 160.0%
Bus NA
Bus EU
HCV NA
HCV EU
MCV NA
MCV EU
LCV EU
LCV NA
CAGR
Pro
duct
ion
Vol
umes
in 2
009
(in th
ousa
nds)
Bubble size represents production volumes in 2016
Hybrid Commercial Vehicle Market= Smart Business At Play
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016Year
Prod
uctio
n Vo
lum
e (in
th
ousa
nds)
North American and European Hybrid Commercial Vehicles Market: Production Forecast (North America & Europe), 2006 - 2016
CAGR 90.9 %
CAGR 99.6 %
North American and European Hybrid Commercial Vehicles Market: Market Attractiveness of Commercial Hybrid Systems (North America & Europe), 2009-2016
Market attractiveness for hybrid vehicles is highest in the MCV, HCV and Bus segments
Least Pressure on Existing Infrastructure Will Continue Drawing Governments, Truckmakers and Customers Towards Hybrid CVs in EU and NA in New Decade
10
Class 6-8 Hybrid Truck Production: Hybrid Trucks to Set to Account for 8 Percent of Total Truck Production by 2015, New revenue Streams for Automated/Automatic Transmission Suppliers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2009 2010 2011 2012
Installatio
n (
%)
Hybridization of North American Commercial Trucks (Class 6-8) : Production Volumes and Market Shares of Major OEMs (2008-2015), Hybrid Power Source (2009-2012)
Hybrid Production39,400
2008 2015
Hybrid Production600
Navistar
62%
Navistar39%
Daimler16%
Volvo/Mack-11%
PACCAR23%
PACCAR27%
Daimler-11%
CAGR (2008-2015)=80.8%Electric Hybrid
Hydraulic Hybrid
8% of Truck Production
• Private fleets (Coca-Cola, UPS, FedEx, Utilities) driving the first wave of Class 6-7 truck adoption
• Class 8 long-haul emerging as holy-grail for volume growth
• Hydraulic hybrid production to begin in 2010 (Peterbilt Class 8, FCCC hydraulic)
• Private fleets (Coca-Cola, UPS, FedEx, Utilities) driving the first wave of Class 6-7 truck adoption
• Class 8 long-haul emerging as holy-grail for volume growth
• Hydraulic hybrid production to begin in 2010 (Peterbilt Class 8, FCCC hydraulic)
11
Key Transmission Trends and Takeaways: Commercial Vehicles
Driver Shortage
Declining Price and Rising
Fuel Efficiency of Auto-Trannies
Rising Hybrid Truck Demand
Rising Demand and Penetration
in BRIC Countries
Increasing Vocational
Activity
Favourable Regulatory
Environment
Rising Fleet Manager
Awareness and Preference
Upfront and Lifecycle Cost
Barriers- Developed and
Emerging Markets
12
Questions?
Sandeep KarGlobal Program Manager- Commercial Vehicles ResearchToronto, CanadaDirect: 416.490.7796Fax: 416.490.1533Email: [email protected]
Sandeep KarGlobal Program Manager- Commercial Vehicles ResearchToronto, CanadaDirect: 416.490.7796Fax: 416.490.1533Email: [email protected]