global energy security conference 2016
TRANSCRIPT
GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY CONFERENCE 2016Global Diplomatic Forum LondonDr Cyril WiddershovenSVP Research MEA-Risk.comFounder VEROCY.comSenior Fellow Hazar Strategy Mob: +31-6-53819265, Skype: Cyril.widdershovenEmail: [email protected]; [email protected]
Setting the Scene: Turmoil and Instability
• Intro• Global Market• MENA region oil and gas • MENA geopolitics and reality• Future Scenario
MEA-Risk.com• MEA Risk LLC performs tracking/alerting activity, risk
rating and analysis specific to the Africa and Middle East. Tracking and alerting are related to events and incidents that constitute critical risk factors to countries, organizations and individuals.
• Events and incidents are captured by teams on the ground, and summarized, analyzed and immediately disseminated.
MEA-Risk: Critical Incidents Tracker
Tools Tracker
VEROCY.com
World Oil Markets: Blood on the Wall?
World Oil Demand Growth (OPEC)
Global Demand Growth Slowth
Asian demand still growingChina demand slowing, India still up
Overall Demand Growth Still There!
Global Production Growth Takes Plunge
Non-OPEC Supply Hit Hard 2016
Supply-Demand Balance
Oversupply Threatened, Investments Deferals Will Cause Deficit (soon?)
CAPEX
Middle East Energy & Turmoil
OPEC Production: Saudi-Iran potential
Middle East Still Centre of Universe?
Underlying issues: Syria-Russia-ISIS
Lines of Conflict and Oil Revenues?
Info• Dr. Cyril Widdershoven is currently SVP Research of US-based consultancy MEA-Risk.com and co-founder of Dutch
critical risk (defense/security/energy MENA) consultancy VEROCY. He also is Fellow of IAGS US (www.IAGS.org) and Senior Fellow of Turkish strategic thinktank HAZAR..
• Dr. Widdershoven is a long-time observer of the global energy market with focus on geopolitical risk, terrorism, fundamentalism and military/defense related issues in the MENA region. Presently, he holds several advisory positions with international think tanks in the Middle East and energy sectors in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In earlier career assignments, he held positions at Capgemini Consulting, Deloitte Financial Advisory Services, and as Senior Financial Analyst Oil & Gas Sector FDA, where he managed and advised the oil and gas department on equity and bond markets, with the main targets being Shell, BP, Total, Eni, BG, Heerema, Fugro, DSM, Dow Chemicals, BASF, Statoil, Schlumberger, Halliburton, PSG, and Repsol.
• Dr. Widdershoven held several senior publishing positions in leading energy publications such as Afroil, Middle East Oil and Gas, and North Africa Oil and Gas Magazine Cairo, and he continues to oversee the Mediterranean Energy Political Risk Consultancy. Dr. Widdershoven worked on M&A operations in Egypt, Libya, Sudan, and Iran, he studied the pipeline operations in Libya, Algeria, Nigeria and Turkey, and he assessed risk for institutional investors and banks in Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iraq, all while advising the Dutch government and international organizations on related issues.
• Dr. Widdershoven has throughout his career lived and worked in numerous Middle East countries, with a home base in Egypt, where he was Head of Investment and Research at ARTOC Group for Investment and Development in Cairo. He is also has founded North Africa’s first English language oil and gas monthly North Africa Oil and Gas Magazine, now called Petroleum Africa, and was one of the founders of the Middle East Oil Gas Newsletter and Africa Oil Newsletter at Newsbase (UK).
• Dr. Widdershoven earned his post graduate degrees at King’s College, University of London, Department of War Studies, and an MA in Middle East Studies at the University of Nijmegen, Netherlands.