Global Food Systems

and the Way Forward

5 J

ULY

2018

Jan W. Low, Principal ScientistInternational Potato CenterManna Center, Tel Aviv, Israel5 July 2018

Conceptual Framework for Food System

Source: HLPE. 2017 Nutrition and Food Systems

Climate Change will raise C02 levels substantially:What are the impacts on crop growth?

Sources: Fischer, Byerlee, and Edmeades (2014)ACIAR Monograph No. 158.; Wittwer, S. (1992) Policy Review, 4-10.

Myers, S.S. et al. (2014) Nature (510): 139–142

CO2 expected to increase by 26% to 480 parts per million (ppm) by 2050 With rising CO2 levels, average global temperatures will increase by 2°C by 2050.

• Hot spells above 30°C depress yields by speeding up crop development and by reducing grain numbers and size

Temperature effects will be offset by yield gains due to increasing C02 concentration in crops that use the C3 carbon fixation pathway Mean (average) response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration from its

current level of 360 ppm is a 32% improvement in plant productivity

C3 Plants:• Rice• Wheat• Potato• Sweetpotato• Soybeans• Beans • Peas

C4 Plants:o Maize/corno Sugarcaneo Sorghumo MilletOverall 8% yield loss by 2050

Crassulacean Acid Metabolism (CAM) Plants:Least positive response to C02o Pineappleo Cacti

However, nutrient density in C3 plants likely to decline….Zinc, iron & protein drops in wheat, rice, peas, soybean

Projected Impact on Burden of Disease due to Fe and Zn

Source: Weyant et al. 2018. PLoS Med 15(7): e1002586.

What are breeders doing?

Sources: Ceccarelli, S. et al. (2010)Journal of Agricultural Science(2010), 148, 627–637

Breeding for: Drought tolerance Heat tolerance Pest and disease incidence (increases with

increasing C02) Water use efficiency Salinity tolerance Biofortification (vitamin A, iron, zinc) Early maturity (shorter growing seasons) Accelerated breeding schemes

Testing sites exist

2 Core conditions needed: agricultural research to provide more

productive and sustainable technologies to farmers; and

a policy framework that fosters market incentives for increasing production & private sector investment

Where will the investment come from?

Increased reliance on the private sector in USA and Western Europe

Where will the investment come from?

After stagnating in the 1990s, growth in spending increased 2000-2014. Ag research spending increased from 1.7 billion to 2.5 billion in 2014.

(2011 PPP prices, 28 countries)

However, 3 countries dominate: Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya account for 50% of total investment in 2014

The Rising Rates of Obesity are RaisingQuestions about the Modern Food System

Are Multi-National Food Companies Part of the Problem or the Solution?

How Big Business Got BrazilHooked on Junk Food

As growth slows in wealthy countries, Western food companies are

aggressively expanding in developing nations, contributing to obesity and

health problems

The New York Times, Sept 16, 2017By ANDREW JACOBS and MATT RICHTELNestle delivers products door to door in Fortaleza…

Growing number of people are overweight and undernourished Rising epidemic of diabetes and chronic heart disease Nestle says it has lowered sugar, fat and salt content in 9,000 items and the

problem is customers understanding portion size.. Big food companies have political influence.. Developing economies now 42% of

Nestle sales… Calls itself a “nutrition health and wellness company” Food and beverage conglomerates in Brazil are responsible for 10 percent of the

nation’s economic output and employ 1.6 million people (Nestle 21,000…).

Taxing Sugary drinks and Junk Food: Can it work?

Colchero et al. 2016. BMJ 352:h6704 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.h6704Pomeranz et al. American Journal of Public Health 108, no. 2 (February 1, 2018): pp. 203-209www.foodbev.com/news/lessons-mexico-sugar-tax-hasnt-worked-says-beverage-association/

Experience in Mexico.. Decline in consumption of

sugary beverages highest in 1st year

Low reduction: 6.6 calories/person on average since the tax..

Greater drop among poor hhs, but purchases of water increased;

Huge tax revenue: worth $5.5 billion

Reduced calorie content of products 50% no sugar 7% reduction

What are the Drivers of the Food System? Demographic Drivers: Population Growth & Urbanization Food is an ecosystem service

Agriculture can only be sustainable if water, land and soil are well managed If soil lacks key nutrients, crop yields and livestock production will decrease Heavy metals in soil from synthetic fertilizers can also negatively impact

human health Different species and varieties (biodiversity)also offer dietary diversity and

different nutrient profiles and must be protected Globally fish and aquaculture provide 20% of protein in diet

Aquaculture relies heavily on inputs such as antibiotics, and currently uses 81 percent of the global supply of fish oil and 63 percent of fishmeal– especially for carnivorous species like salmon

Growing push for diversified agro-ecological farming systems– should we drive and shift towards “low-impact” foods?

Nutrition-sensitive agriculture “seeks to ensure the production of a diversified range of affordable, nutritious, culturally appropriate and safe foods in adequate quantity and quality to meet the dietary requirements of populations in a sustainable manner”.

What are the Drivers of the Food System? Innovation and Technology: Existing and New…

Innovative food technologies can benefit or hurt health outcomes Much uncertainly and lack of consensus on use of genetically

engineered foods Scare tactics by anti-GMO lobby Dominance in control of transgenic seed by multi-national

companies Infrastructure investment is key.. Access to markets within countries..

With globalization and trade liberalization, food is moving longer distances–food travels average of 2,400 kms before it is consumed in the USA (Pimentel et al., 2008).

Political and economic drivers.. Leadership for good policy decisions Industry has a stronger voice than producers.. Urban dwellers have a stronger voice than rural dwellers…

Globalization and trade– accelerating the nutrition transition Share of agricultural production traded internationally has increased

from about one-ninth in the 1960s to about one-sixth in the 2000s (Anderson, 2010).

Trade can increase the diversity of foods available & income Trade can accelerate access to unhealthy, ultra-processed foods

What are the Drivers of the Food System?, contPolitical and economic drivers.. Food prices and volatility

Lots of evidence showing that changes in the relative prices of foods alter consumption behavior (Griffith et al., 2015; Dubois et al., 2014; Wiggins et al., 2015).

When the prices of non-staple foods increase, diet quality declines (Herforth and Ahmed, 2015).

Land rights Improving access (long term use rights) is critical for empowerment

and incomes of smallholder farmers and their ability to invest.. Women typically have less access then men..

Conflicts and Humanitarian Crises Conflicts are often a cause of acute hunger or famine. Currently, more than 1.4

million children are at imminent risk of death from severe acute malnutrition (SAM), and over 40 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, due to famines or risk of famines in South Sudan, Nigeria, Somalia and Yemen.

Asia and Africa have become increasingly dependent on food imports. 20 most populated countries in Africa are net grain importers (Hendrix, 2016). Over 30 countries experienced riots during the food price crisis of 2007–2008

(World Bank, 2014).

What are the Drivers of the Food System?, cont

Socio-cultural Drivers Cultures and Rituals. Food is the product of agriculture so it goes

without saying that food plays a powerful role in how we tie ourselves to the land and preserve our historic social traditions and culture. Most human societies have food customs and “taboos” that are

influenced by religions and beliefs, traditions, cultures and social norms and that might have positive or negative impacts on FSN.

Women’s empowerment Women’s status within the household influences child nutrition through

their control of their time and their household income, as well as their mental health, confidence and self-esteem (Smith and Haddad, 2015)

While women constitute a large part of the agricultural workforce, their labor is often invisible. Physical work burden can be detrimental to their own health.

Adequate formal education fundamental.

Is the Nutrition Transition Inevitable?

X

Energy-dense Efficient System

Nutrient-denseEfficient System

What Would You Recommended to Change Course?

1) Low Income Country

Food Supply

1)

2)

3)

2) Low Income CountryFood

Environment

1)

2)

3)

3) Low Income CountryConsumer Behavior

1)

2)

3)

4) High Income Country

Food Supply

1)

2)

3)

5) High Income CountryFood

Environment

1)

2)

3)

6) High Income CountryConsumer Behavior

1)

2)

3)

What are your top 3 interventions and why?

Remember the Tools Available to Use & theirPros and Cons

Investments that change the prices of nutritious foods versus less nutritious foods

Taxes Subsidies Other Incentives Labeling Techniques that Nudge.. Laws/Regulations Trainings/Certifications Media Use Promotions Targeted programsWho best should lead with these tools? Government vs Private Role of Civil Society Research Community

Categories:1) Availability & Physical

Access2) Affordability3) Promotion, Advertising

& Information4) Food Quality & Safety5) Environmental

Consequence

Step Back and Appreciate What Has Been Achieved…

Since 1960, the number of children under five years old dying annually dropped from 20 million to 5.6 million….

Number of people living in extreme poverty dropped from 1.86 billion in 1990 to 706 million (still one in 10 persons)

Source: OurWorldinData.org

Stay well! Live well!