global grand challenges: strategic vision, self-knowledge, tools and network singularity university...

Global Grand Challenges:Strategic Vision, Self-Knowledge, Tools and Network

Singularity UniversityJune 2012 Mountain View, CA

John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies [email protected]: accelerating.org/slides

Strategic VisionWhat Grand Challenges Motivate You?

Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto

AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

© 2012 Accelerating.org

Strategic Vision:What’s Your Theory of Change? Of Progress?

Good foresight relies on theories and hypotheses of change. Good theories of change include values, and an idea of progress.

I co-founded a community of scholars study complex systems from a combination of evolutionary variation, adaptive selection, and developmental optimization approaches. More at:

EvoDevoUniverse.comBury, 1920

http://www.amazon.com/The-Idea-Progress-J-Bury/dp/1466496401




Evolution, Computation, and Development: Three Drivers and Two Patterns Found in All Complex Systems

ChanceEvolution

Unpredictable/Not optimized

NecessityDevelopmentPredictable/Optimized

UtilityComputation/

Adaptation/SelectionPartial predictability/optimization

Science and Human Values, Bronowski, 1965, TrialogueThe Structure of Evolutionary Theory, Gould, 2002, p. 1052The Plausibility of Life, Kirschner & Gerhart, 2005, p. 219Evo Devo Universe?, Smart, 2008, p. 18What Technology Wants, Kelly, 2010, p. 123

“Funnels”Unifying, Universal

“Trees”Diversifying, Local

http://www.amazon.com/Science-Human-Values-J-Bronowski/dp/B000NRM314

http://www.amazon.com/Structure-Evolutionary-Theory-Stephen-Gould/dp/0674006135

http://www.amazon.com/The-Plausibility-Life-Resolving-Darwins/dp/0300108656

http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf

http://www.amazon.com/What-Technology-Wants-Kevin-Kelly/dp/0143120174



Freedom, Intelligence, and Security: Three Values of Social Progress




Three Intelligence Singularities:The Universe, Life, and Minds

Is the Universe a type of computer?It sure looks like one.

Are organisms a type of computer?They compute at the gene and cell level.

Is the human mind a type of Computer?Yep.



Cryonics (since 1967)$90,000 per person

Are You Your Connectome?

Plastination (1930+)$20,000 per person?

Formalin (1880+)$3,000 per person?

Brainpreservation.org

Brain Preservation Technology Prize - $120K•Do any of these three techniques perfectly preserve the connectome?•Can we radically lower the cost of saving memories and identities?•If so, will this service have positive global social effects?




Developmental Funnels (Universal Attractors) Are Scarce, and the Hardest to See and Prove

In Chemistry: Carbon (“organic”) chemistry (vs. silicon, boron, etc.) for life Amino acids, purines, pyrimidines, pre-lipids as cell precursors RNA as enzyme and code for protein architectures

In Biology: Universal pattern modules in multicellularity Antifreeze molecules in northern and southern polar fish Eyes, body plans, limbs, joints, wings, fins, emotions Bilateral symmetry, binocular vision, tetrapod form Placental vs. marsupial mice, moles, rabbits, wolves, tigers, etc. Prehensile limbs, opposable thumbs, anthropoids

In Society: Mimicry memetics (languages) behavioral → gestural → oral → written Moral codes, property, capitalism, rights, democracy, conflict control

In Technology: Neolithic tools (rock, club, spear). Later: lever, rope, wheel, pulley Metallurgy, chemistry, electronics, internal combustion engines, Math, science, computers, internet, cell phones… Next?

Convergent Evolution, 2011; Better Angels of Our Nature, 2011; What Technology Wants, 2010

http://www.amazon.com/Convergent-Evolution-Limited-Beautiful-Theoretical/dp/0262016427

http://www.amazon.com/The-Better-Angels-Our-Nature/dp/0670022950

http://www.amazon.com/What-Technology-Wants-Kevin-Kelly/dp/0143120174



In this model, we can assess any person, org, or system as either:

1. A Learning (“Adaptive”) System (hiding evo and devo processes) 2. A Protecting & Innovating (“Sustainable Innovation”) System (hiding #1) 3. An Innovating, Learning and Protecting System (keeping all three explicit)

Innovation, Learning, and Protecting: Three Basic Leadership Challenges

© 2012 Accelerating.orgEvo Devo Universe?, Smart, 2008, p. 10

http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartEvoDevoUniv2008.pdf




Ten Areas of Technological Change

Newest “Steerer” of Accelerating Change: 1. Information TechnologiesNewest “Engine” of Accelerating Change: 2. Nanoscience and NanotechnologiesHuman Intelligence Technologies: 3. Resource Technologies 4. Engineering Technologies 5. Health Technologies 6. Social Technologies 7. Cognitive Technologies 8. Economic Technologies 9. Political Technologies10. Security Technologies

Ten Areas of Technological Change (and 30 Books For Further Reading), Smart, 2012

http://accelerating.org/articles/tenareasoftechchange.html



Acknowledging the Strongest Levers:Infotech and Nanotech

"Give me a lever long enough, a fulcrum, and place to stand and I will move the world."

- Archimedes of Syracuse, 287-212 BCE





Infotech/Simulation - Virtual Inner Space – “Steerer” “As Intelligence Rises, Thinking Becomes More Adaptive Than Acting” Adult humans no longer act in novel ways, they think in novel ways. Simulations allow “ephemeralization” (far less mass/energy per action) Rise of scientific simulations. NSF. IPCC. NASA Solar System Simulator Telepresence outcompetes traveling for perception Telerobotics/haptics outcompetes traveling for action Google maps, sensors, geoweb, parallelized GPUs: visual cortex for the web. Machine sim data doubles every 2 years. Human sims grow far slower.

Nanoscience/Nanotech - Physical Inner Space – “Engine” “There’s Plenty of Performance at the Bottom.” Fission 1,000X more E/mass than chem. Fusion 1,000X more E than fission Fuel cells store 100,000X more E/mass than chemical batteries Synthetic catalysts increase reaction speeds and yields 10^3 to 10^6 Programmable synapses 10^6 faster, 10^3 less E/comp. than neurons Photonic crystal lasers 10^6 more E efficient than other microlasers Single step efficiency jumps in macro (human) space are always far less.

The “Race to Inner Space:”The New Steerer and Engine of Accelerating Change

Info: Intelligence, Fischler, 1987; Simulation, Ross, 2006; Simulation-Based Engineering Science, NSF, 2006. Nano: Engines of Creation, Drexler, 1987; Nanotechnology, Ratner, 2002; The Race to Inner Space, Smart, 2012.

http://www.amazon.com/Intelligence-The-Eye-Brain-Computer/dp/0201120011




The Transcension Hypothesis: Our Developmental Destiny?

The Transcension Hypothesis: Do Advanced Civilizations Leave Our Universe?, John Smart, Acta Astronautica, 11 Dec 2011.

Earthrise (Dec 1968)Earth as a tiny point of emergent intelligence

Is our future even tinier?



Grand Challenge - Information Technologies


- Computing (Super, Enterprise, Personal, Mobile, Web)- Communication and Networks- Big Data, Maps, Algorithms and Simulations- Conversational Interface- Agents and Cybertwins

What Grand Challenges would be most improved by an order of magnitude or more individual, organizational, or system intelligence or interdependence in:

Apple’s Siri oniPhone 4, 2011

Google Now on Nexus 7& Android 4.1, 2012

Google Now on Glass, Dev: Jan 2013

The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward, John Smart, 2003-10.



Global English:An Education Grand Challenge


One Tablet-Laptop Per Child(Asus Transformer Prime 2012)

Global English via Teacherless Education•1.8 Billion English speakers today. In 10 Years?•How many of the “Next Two Billion” will learn the leading global language?•How soon till a free Global English is more effective than Rosetta Stone?•Conversational Interface. Visual Learning. Aug. Reality. Contextual Learning.•Camera. Spaced Repetition Learning. Adaptive Testing. Crowd/Peer Education.•How soon till top-rated Eng. speakers are on LinkedIn & in global job networks?•How soon till we have one billion new Eng. speakers in the global workforce?•Top call center country in the world today?•Partners: English Speaking Business Community. English Learners.

‘Wrist PC’ concept(Metaverse Roadmap, 2007)

(also Poverty, Security, Health, Energy, Food, Water, Environment)

Google Now on Glass(Dev: Jan 2013)

$400

Self-KnowledgeWho Are You? Who Can You Become?



From Self-Diagnosis to People Management


- Great Self-Diagnosis (Kirton, SF, Adizes, etc) helps Social Effectiveness

- Great Self-Knowledge & Self-Management helps People Management

Your ToolsBuying and Sharpening Your Knives



Innovation, Strategy, and Foresight: Three Organizational Toolsets

Emerging Technologies MS – Curriculum Framework, Univ of Advancing Technology, Smart, 2011.



“50 Solutions that Can

Change the World”

Collect and Rank Your Best Grand Challenge Ideas

1. Innovation Ranking and Innovation Mgmt Platforms

2. Benefit-Cost Analysis Benefitcostanalysis.org

2004 2014?

Tools to get there:



For Controversial Problems:Take a “Schools of Thought (SoT)” Approach

What are top SoT’s (World Views) on causes of the problem?

Who are their best proponents?

What are their solutions?

What data would help reduce the number of SoTs, or clarify the conditions when each is right?

Ending Hunger, 1985Excellent example of SoT approach.

The Hunger Project (thp.org)

Your NetworkDigital, Global, Personal



Foresight and Innovation (F&I) Education

FERNweb.org GlobalForesight.org

There are now ~23 universities where you can get a grad degree in F&I, and ~six good certificate programs. Best by far is SU!

FERN networks foresight grad students and helps them find good jobs.

GlobalForesight is a wiki of foresight orgs, resources and people.



What Are Your Networks Doing For You?

2012 Nosedive: 8M 2.5M Users

Val: $66BVal: $11B Val: $190B

Be an aggressive user of the best of your networks. Often they aren’t the ones most people think are the best.

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