global graphic paper outlook - fastmarkets risi...global demand for printing & writing papers...

20
1 Global Graphic Paper Outlook 2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 1 Beth Lis Vice President, Asia Paper and Packaging Key issues in global markets GDP growth The global outlook for 2019 is a bit weaker than in 2018, with softening in many regions followed by slight reacceleration in 2020. Risks abound, especially related to global trade. Secular decline in paper demand Rapid losses in paper demand seem to be spreading and possibly accelerating in some regions. Trade patterns Traditional trade patterns are shifting both regionally and globally due to price differentials and supply cuts. 2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 2 Shifting paper supply Withdrawals and conversions of capacity to packaging grades are occurring in many regions, with a few projects announced for Asia. 2

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Page 1: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

1

Global Graphic Paper Outlook

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 1

Beth Lis

Vice President, Asia Paper and Packaging

Key issues in global markets

GDP growth

The global outlook for 2019 is a bit weaker than in 2018, with

softening in many regions followed by slight reacceleration in

2020. Risks abound, especially related to global trade.

Secular decline in paper demand

Rapid losses in paper demand seem to be spreading and

possibly accelerating in some regions.

Trade patterns

Traditional trade patterns are shifting both regionally and

globally due to price differentials and supply cuts.

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 2

Shifting paper supply

Withdrawals and conversions of capacity to packaging grades

are occurring in many regions, with a few projects announced

for Asia.

2

Page 2: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

2

Global economy growing moderately, with heightened risks

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 3

Annual real GDP growth

3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.6%2.4%

17 18 19 20 21

GLOBAL

6.9% 6.6% 6.0% 6.1% 5.1%

17 18 19 20 21

CHINA

1.1% 1.0%1.6%

2.4%1.4%

17 18 19 20 21

LATIN AMERICA

2.5%1.8%

1.1% 1.4% 0.3%

17 18 19 20 21

EURO AREA

2.2% 2.9%1.8% 1.9% -0.1%

17 18 19 20 21

USA

4.8% 4.9% 4.7% 4.7%3.5%

17 18 19 20 21

NON-CHINA ASIA

3

Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001

-1.9%Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-

2020

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Mill

ion

ton

ne

s

P&W demand Newsprint demand (R)

-6.0%Annual decline for newsprint in 2008-

2020

4

Page 3: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

3

P&W demand growth in 2019-2020

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 5

Thousand tonnes, percentage per year

-1,212 (-3.8%)

-15 (-0.1%)

-503 (-0.6%)

-102 (-4.7%)

-13 (-0.3%)

41 (0.9%)

34 (0.3%)

-1,756 (-4.8%)

-3.53Million tonnes

-1.8%Average percent change

Two-year total global growth

5

Percentage change in global demand by grade

GLOBAL P&W DEMAND DECLINING STEADILY

The largest drops are coming in the mechanical grades that are most exposed to mass-market publishing end-

uses and mature economies.

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AVERAGE

Uncoated woodfree -1.0% -0.7% -0.8% 0.4% -0.3% -0.5%

Uncoated mechanical -3.8% -5.9% -1.6% -4.7% -4.2% -4.1%

Coated woodfree -0.6% -2.3% -3.4% -1.1% -6.1% -2.7%

Coated mechanical -3.7% -5.0% -6.1% -2.6% -3.5% -4.2%

Printing & writing -1.6% -2.2% -2.2% -0.9% -2.5% -1.9%

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 6

Page 4: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

4

Asian printing & writing paper markets

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 77

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

US

do

llars

pe

r to

nn

e

Re

nm

inb

i p

er

ton

ne

CWF E China (L) UWF E China (L)

CWF SE Asia (R) UWF SE Asia (R)

BHKP China from LAmer (R)

Woodfree paper prices will see a mild recovery after falling over the second half of 2018

PRICES DECREASED IN THE

SECOND HALF OF 2018

UNDER THE WEIGHT OF

• Supply/demand imbalances

• Declining pulp prices

RECENT RECOVERY

ATTRIBUTABLE TO

• Low margins

• Better matching of output to

demand

• Inventory restocking

82019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 8

Page 5: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

5

Asian P&W demand will continue to slide in 2019-2020

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 9

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

UWF 0.6%* UMe -4.4%*

CWF -2.1%* CMe -3.4%*

Total P&W % change -0.6%*

* CAGR 2019-2020.

NO BREAK FROM E-MEDIA

COMPETITION

• And decelerating economy does not help

UNCOATED WOODFREE PAPER

ONLY GRADE WITH POSITIVE

GROWTH

• Supported by end uses, including copy

paper and books/teaching supplies

• Is the dominant grade in markets still seeing

growth

RISKS

• Slower regional/global economic growth

• Trade war

9

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

ChinaJapanIndiaSouth Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, SingaporeIndonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, PhilippinesOther

Across Asia, a few markets still growing, but mature markets continue to slide

CHINA CONTINUES TO

SHRINK

• Only UWF growing, while other

grades hurt by e-media competition

JAPAN RECOVERS FROM

SHARP DROP IN 2018 BUT

REMAINS WEAK

• UWF getting some support from

printing related to the era change

with the new emperor

• Other mature markets continue to

retreat

INDIA AND OTHER LESS

MATURE MARKETS SEE

POSITIVE GROWTH

102019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 10

Page 6: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

6

Asia’s uncoated woodfree paper market is in state of oversupplyYear-to-year change and percent

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 11

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

-500

0

500

1,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Th

ou

sa

nd

to

nn

es

China UWF market

Demand Capacity Operating rate

IMBALANCE GREW IN 2018

• A few projects and assumed grade shifts

• Weak demand

SOME CAPACITY INCREASE IN CHINA

IN 2019 WHILE DEMAND REMAINS

WEAK

• Its about the economy

BALANCE SEES MODEST

TIGHTENING

• Dependent on capacity assumptions

• Changes in trade will not be a major factor

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tho

usand

ton

ne

s

All Asia UWF market

Demand Capacity Operating rate

11

Following the upturn in Asian uncoated woodfree net exports in 2018, we will see a very modest gain in 2019-2020

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 12

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Th

ou

sa

nd

to

nn

es

Net imports by net importers

Japan Other Asia

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Th

ou

sa

nd

to

nn

es

Net exports by net exporters

Indonesia China Thailand & India

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Th

ou

sa

nd

ton

ne

s

Asian net exports

EXPORTS HELD BACK BY

• Weak global demand

• Capacity conversions in Indonesia

SOME GAINS FOR CHINA DUE TO

NEW CAPACITY

IMPORTS CONTINUE TO

TRACK LOWER

• Less demand

12

Page 7: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

7

Asian coated woodfree: A struggle to keep up with drop in demandYear-to-year change and percent

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 13

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Th

ou

sa

nd

to

nn

es

Asian trade balance

Net exporters Net importers Net exports

DEMAND HAS INCREASED ONLY

ONCE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS

RAISING NET EXPORTS NOT AN

OPTION

• Weak global demand

• Tariffs on shipments to US and EU for several

suppliers

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Th

ou

sa

nd

to

nn

es

Asian CWF market

Demand Capacity Operating rate

13

US printing & writing markets

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 1414

Page 8: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

8

Most end-use indicators in the US are on a downward trajectory

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 15

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

Bill

ion

s o

f p

iece

s

US postal volumes

First classMarketing mailPeriodicals (R)

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Percent change in magazine ad pages

Source: PIB & Fastmarkets RISI; includes Sunday magazines and the effect of discontinued print

editions.

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%Percent change in catalog circulation

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Un

it s

ale

s in

th

ou

sa

nd

s

Unit sales of printed books

Unit Sales Percentage change (R)

Source: NPD Bookscan, covers 80-85% of print sales.

15

Real dollar sales for US commercial printing

BIG DECLINE IN 2017, WHILE BETTER PERFORMANCE IN 2018 HELPED TO

MODERATE DECLINE IN PAPER DEMAND

162019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

Mill

ion

s o

f re

al 2

00

3$

pe

r m

on

th

MONTHLY

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

ANNUAL GROWTH

Recession

16

Page 9: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

9

North American demand for multi-purpose cut size business papers

-3.3%Trend since 2006

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Th

ou

sa

nd

to

nn

es

North American demand % change (R)

-1.3%Decline in 2018 after 6.7% drop in 2017

17

US printing & writing demand

DEMAND TO ACCELERATE DOWN AFTER SLOW DECLINE IN 2018

US P&W demand dropped only 2.4% in 2018 after falling 7.7% in 2017. Most grades are expected to decline

more quickly in 2019/2020.

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 18

DEMAND

THOUSAND TONNES2017 2017 %CH 2018 2018 %CH

FORECAST

20192019 %CH

FORECAST

20202020 %CH

Coated woodfree 3.525 -4.5% 3,451 -2.1% 3,327 -3.6% 3,201 -3.8%

Coated mechanical 2,118 -12.2% 2,115 -0.1% 2,016 -4.7% 1,885 -6.5%

Uncoated woodfree 6,991 -6.3% 6,900 -1.3% 6,720 -2.6% 6,545 -2.6%

Uncoated mechanical 2,596 -11.4% 2,473 -4.7% 2,328 -5.9% 2,174 -6.6%

Total P&W 15,230 -7.7% 14,868 -2.4% 14,326 -3.6% 13,791 -3.7%

-1.7%

Page 10: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

10

Western European printing & writing markets

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 1919

Western European P&W demand will remain in the doldrums in 2019-2020

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 20

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

UWF -3.8%* UMe -4.0%*

CWF -6.9%* Cme -5.0%*

Total P&W % change -4.8%*

* CAGR 2019-2020.

ACCELERATED DECLINE IN 2018 AS

ECONOMY WAS PAST PEAK

• Also affected by higher prices

SUBSTITUTION BETWEEN GRADES

LEFT MECHANICAL GRADES A

LITTLE BETTER OFF THAN

WOODFREE IN 2017-2018

• And slightly less cost pressure

SIMILAR RATE OF DECLINE IN 2019-

2020

• Total volume drop of 1.8 million tonnes over

the two years

20

Page 11: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

11

Trade issues

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 2121

Update of key graphic paper tariffs

into USA

Coated freesheet in sheets from China and

Indonesia, 2010

In place since 2010, no recent changes

SC Ume from Canada, 2015

US DOC revokes and refunds back to August 2015 after

petition by Verso, the sole US producer. Verso received $42

million from Canadian mills in the settlement.

Uncoated freesheet cut size paper, 2015

Navigator wins battle in 2018 and sees tariff drop to less than

2% after a new investigation raised it from 8% to 37%. Ideal

opportunity for Navigator to expand in the USA with GP moving

out.

Newsprint and certain other Ume from Canada,

2018

US DOC nullified all tariffs and will refund all monies collected

after ITC commissioners unanimously ruled no harm done to

US industry by Canadian imports.2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 2222

Page 12: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

12

Tariffs on US imports of coated woodfree paper in sheets

CVD ADD COMBINED

APP Indonesia 17.94% 20.13% 38.07%

APP China 19.46% 7.6% 27.06%

Sun Paper China 202.84% 135.73% 338.67%

All other China 19.46% 135.83% 155.29%

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 23

PROHIBITIVELY HIGH TARIFFS ON MANY CHINESE PRODUCERS

Tariffs have shifted sources of US imports from China and Indonesia to South Korea and Europe. There are no

tariffs on rolls, but imports of rolls are still modest.

Tariffs on US imports of cut size copy paper

CVD ADD COMBINED

Australia Paper 222% 222%

Suzano 17%* 17%

Navigator 2%** 2%

APRIL Indonesia 4%* 66.81%*** 70.81%

APP Indonesia 109% 17% 126%

Asia Symbol (China) 7% 84% 91%

APP China 7% 149% 156%

UPM China 177% 149% 326%

Sun Paper China 177% 149% 326%

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 24

TARIFFS RANGE FROM 2% TO 326%

Effects of tariffs waning as US operating rates declined and imports from non-tariffs counties exploded in 2018.

Because US prices remain high relative to other world regions, major capacity exits are scheduled for 2019, and

Brazilian, Portuguese and Indonesian producers remain in the market, imports are likely to rise again.

* Revised down April 2018.

** Revised down October 2018.

*** Revised up March 2019.

Page 13: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

13

US offshore imports of P&W paper are supplying a growing share of US demand

15%Share of US p&w demand supplied from

offshore

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Th

ou

sa

nd

to

nn

es

Offshore imports Share of US demand (R)

0%Decline in US offshore imports since the

recession ended in 2009, despite

numerous tariffs

52%Share of US market for coated sheets

supplied from offshore, despite tariffs on

China and Indonesia25

EU coated mechanical exportsOverall exports rose by more than 10% in 2018

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook

US prices higher than European prices

since weakening of the euro in 2014

Exports rising, primarily to the United

States, where closures have pushed

operating rates close to 100%

Tight market conditions in European

publication markets limiting gains

Europe exporting more to North America

due to high prices in the USA and more

than 11% reduction in capacity in 2018

All other regions in decline due to the

weakening in the economy and higher

paper prices

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Africa Far East/Oceania

LatinAmerica

Middle East NorthAmerica

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

2017 2018

EU coated woodfree exportsExports declined 65,000 tonnes in 2018

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Africa Far East/Oceania

LatinAmerica

Middle East NorthAmerica

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

2017 2018

26

Page 14: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

14

Paper supply and demand balance

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 2727

282019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook

No more safe havens

China no longer the growth engine it

used to be

Packaging papers are becoming

oversupplied

Tissue and specialty papers offer little

volume for sufficient growth

28

Page 15: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

15

Global P&W demand decline, cumulative 2018 to 2020Thousand tonnes

EXPECTED COATED DEMAND DROP

THROUGH 2020 ALREADY MORE

THAN MATCHED BY ANNOUNCED

CLOSURES!

• Massive 3.3 million tonne decline in coated

paper demand vs 5.0 million tonnes of

announced and expected shuts/conversions

• Many announcements in last two months

UWF BALANCE IS AT RISK

• Closures in US tightening market there

• But continued expansion of Asian UWF

threatens global balance

• No significant announced closures globally in

UME!! Some coming soon?

26

-157-302

-451

-995

-1365

-337

-754

-1132-984

-1,614

-2,144

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

2018 2019 2020

UWF UME CME CWF

292019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 29

Global coated woodfree paper machine shuts/conversions, 2018-2020

COMPANY MILL COUNTRY CAPACITY (TONNES/YR)

DATE COMMENTS

Scheufelen Lenningen Germany 120,000 CWF Q1 2018 Mill shift to packaging

SAPPI Maastricht Netherlands 160,000 CWF Q1 2018 Shift to packaging

Arjowiggins Besse-sur_Braye France 275,000 CWF Q1 2019 Mill closure

Arctic Paper Grycksbo Sweden 45,000 CWF Q1 2019 Shut PM7

Feldmuehle Uetersen Germany 80,000 CWF Q1 2019 Shut PM2

Lecta Condat France 230,000 CWF 2019 Convert a PM to specialty

StoraEnso Oulu Finland 1,080,000 CWF End of 2019-2020? Shut PM6, convert PM7 to CUK

Verso Jay USA 160,000 CWF Q1 2018 Shift to specialties

SAPPI Somerset USA 135,000 CWF Q2 2018 Shift to packaging

Verso Luke USA 408,000 CWF Q3 2019 Shut mill, listed capacity incudes specialties

Indah Kiat/APP Mojokerto Indonesia 245,000 CWF Q2 2019 Shift PM10 to packaging

Tjiwi Kimia/APP Mojokerto Indonesia 50,000 CWF H2 2019 Shift PM11 to packaging, but may be on hold

Nippon Paper Ind. Akita Japan 147,000 CWF Q2 2018 Shut coater No. 1

Nippon Paper Ind. Ishinomaki Japan 86,000 CWF Q2 2018 Shut coater No. 2

Mitsubishi Hachinohe Japan 120,000 CWF Q4 2018 Mill shut in November

Daio Paper Mishima Japan 150,000 CWF Q4 2019 PM N7 converting to kraft paper and paperboard

Nippon Paper Ind. Yufutsu Japan 88,000 CWF Q1 2020 Shut mill

3,579,000 CWF

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 30

Note: There are currently no major coated paper capacity expansions occurring globally.

Page 16: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

16

Global coated mechanical paper machine shuts/conversions, 2018-2020

COMPANY MILL COUNTRY CAPACITY (TONNES/YR)

DATE COMMENTS

Burgo Verzuolo Italy 165,000 CME Q1 2018 PM8 shut

Kublier & Niethammer Kriebstein Germany 40,000 CME 2018 Shift to specialty grades

Arjowiggins Bourray France 73,000 CME Q1 2019 Shut PM1

UPM Plattling Germany 155,000 CME Q3 2019 Shut PM10

Burgo Verzuolo Italy 400,000 CME Q4 2019 PM9 conversion to containerboard

UPM/Blandin Grand Rapids USA 116,000 CME Q1 2018 Idle PM5

ND Paper Biron USA 103,000 CME Q3 2019 Shift PM25 to packaging

New-Indy Catawba USA 310,000 CME NA Potential conversion to packaging

Nippon Paper Ind. Fuji Japan 33,000 CME 2019 Shut PM11

1,395,000 CME

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 31

Note: There are currently no major coated paper capacity expansions occurring globally.

Global uncoated freesheet machine startups, 2018-2020

COMPANY MILL COUNTRY CAPACITY (TONNES/YR)

DATE COMMENTS

Ittihad Paper Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates 325,000 Q4 2018; not started yet Non-integrated machine

Sun Paper Yanzhou, Shandong China 200,000 Q1 2018 Heavyweight grades including CFS, specialty

Shandong Chenming Shouguang, Shandong China 510,000 Q3 2018 Voith PM9 to focus on cut size

Shandong Chenming Shouguang, Shandong China 500,000 Q3 2018Machine converted from newsprint; four cut size sheeters ordered

Shandong Bohui Shandong China 600,000 Q1 2019PM 6 produces CM but can swing to UWF depending on demand and fiber availability

Shandong Bohui Shandong China 600,000 2020 PM ordered from Valmet

Sun Paper Yanzhou, Shandong China 450,000? 2020 Looking to place order

Malaysia Newsprint Industries

Mentakab Malaysia 250,000 2018-2020 Conversion from newsprint machine

Sirpur Paper Mills Adilabad India 124,000 2019 Restart mill now owned by JK paper

DSG Paper Bhanri India 171,000 2019 New PM

Tan Mai Konturn Vietnam 200,000 2020 New pulp and paper mill

3,330,000 total excluding Shandong

Bohui CM/UWF PM6

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 32

Page 17: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

17

Global uncoated freesheet machine shuts and conversions, 2018-2020

COMPANY MILL COUNTRY CAPACITY (TONNES/YR) DATE COMMENTS

UPM Nordland Germany 200,000 Q3 2019 Convert PM2 to specialty

Flambeau River Park Falls USA 77,000 Q1 2018 Shut PM3

PCA/Boise Wallula USA 70,000 Q2 2018 Convert to packaging

GP Camus USA 215,000 Q2 2018 Shut PM

GP Port Hudson USA 630,000 Q2 2019 Shut mill, exit UFS business

IP Selma USA 213,000 2020 Delayed plans to convert to packaging

MONDI Merebank South Africa 75,000 Q3 2018 Shut PM

COPOMEX Anahuac Mexico 171,000 2019 Convert PM to containerboard

Shandong Bohui Shandong China 120,000 2019-2020 Shutting 12 old PMs when start new one

Pindo Deli/APP Karawang Indonesia 150,000 Q1 2019 Convert PM14 to packaging

Tjiwi Kimai/APP Mojokerto Indonesia 30,000 Q2 2019 Convert PM10 to packaging

Tjiwi Kimia/APP Mojokerto Indonesia 350,000 2019?Convert PM11 to packaging, but may be delayed due to potential new RCP contaminant limits in Indonesia

NIPPON Yufutsu Japan 144,000 2020 Shut mill

2,445,000 total shuts3,330,000 total expansions

885,000 net expansions

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 33

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook

Closure of uncoated freesheet PM3 & PM4

at Port Hudson, LA

• Removal of 630,000 tonnes by mid-March

• Complete exit of GP from white paper

• GP was fourth-largest producer of UWF

• After GP exit, 71% of the North American

industry will be controlled by three players

• The North American market will tighten briefly,

but imports will pick up and exports will fall,

while demand sinks 200,000-300,000 tonnes

per year, quickly restoring the balance

• Europe will benefit from more exports to USA

34

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18

Global newsprint markets

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 3535

Global newsprint demand continues to plunge in 2019-2020Thousand tonnes

ASIAN DECLINE ACCELERATED

SHARPLY IN 2019

• Impact of higher prices

• China and India both saw drops

SLIDE MODERATES OVER NEXT

TWO YEARS

• Lower prices help

• Assumes better conditions in India and

China, although demand will still decline in

China

• But little evidence of this yet, so risk that

demand is even weaker

-517

-908

-404

-280

-383-334 -332

-229

-516-565

-519

-453

-322

-107-81 -73

-1,000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

2017 2018 2019 2020

Asia North America Europe Rest of world

-7.6%* -9.0%*

-6.9%* -5.7%*

* Percent change in global demand.

362019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook

Page 19: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

19

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Hong Kong 45 gsm China 45-48.8 gsm India 42 gsm

Asian newsprint prices falling sharply thus far in 2019

372019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook

Chinese prices are adjusted for VAT. Second quarter 2019 reflects April only. For India, 2Q19 value based on partial information.

GLOBAL OVERSUPPLY

DEVELOPED AS CAPACITY

WITHDRAWALS DID NOT

KEEP PACE WITH THE DROP

IN DEMAND

The global market balance has shifted againYear-to-year change and percent

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 38

80%

81%

82%

83%

84%

85%

86%

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Th

ou

sa

nd

to

nn

es

Asian market balance

Demand Capacity Operating rate

TIGHTENING IN SUPPLIES TO ASIA IN

2018

• Local closures

• Rising demand from China

• Disruptions from antidumping case in the US

TIGHTNESS DISSIPATING

• Dramatic drop in global demand

• Less demand from China for now

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Th

ou

sa

nd

to

nn

es

Global market balance

Demand Capacity N. American operating rate

Page 20: Global Graphic Paper Outlook - Fastmarkets RISI...Global demand for printing & writing papers began decline in 2008, newsprint in 2001-1.9% Annual decline for P&W papers in 2008-2020

20

Asian newsprint imports: Less from Asia, more from Rest of World, more to China

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook 39

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Th

ou

sa

nd

to

nn

es

Asian imports by source

Asia North America Western Europe Rest of World

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018T

ho

usa

nd

to

nn

es

Asian imports by destination

China India Rest of Asia

Share went from

21% to 37%

China’s share at

18% in 2018

Take home points

High paper prices have accelerated demand losses

Globally, up to 1.0 million tonnes or an additional 1% of

demand lost in 2018

01

2019 | Fastmarkets | RISI Global Graphic Paper Outlook

02

03

04

40

No more safe havens

China is no longer the growth engine of the world

Packaging papers becoming oversupplied (slowing demand +

large number of projects within the next three to five years)

Global graphic markets easing due to weakness in global

economy

Capacity closures will still be needed to compensate for

production losses

Increased competition in export markets

Producers using exports to limit losses in operating rates (newsprint in

North America)

Demand slowdown is reducing opportunities globally

05