global information and early warning system (giews) on food and agriculture

FAO/GIEWS, Rome, ItalyFAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

Global Information and Early Warning SystemGlobal Information and Early Warning System(GIEWS)(GIEWS)

on Food and Agricultureon Food and Agriculture

OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGYOVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGYONON

CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTSCROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTS

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Food and Agriculture Organization of the United NationsNations

Rome, ItalyRome, Italy

March 2004March 2004


IntroductionIntroductionAt the request of national governments, the FAO/GIEWS usually

jointly with WFP, conducts Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAMs) for countries facing widespread and serious food emergencies. Typically 20-25 countries are annually covered by these missions. Most are in Africa but recent examples also include the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Afghanistan and Iraq.

The FAO methodology followed for these assessments is briefly outlined in this presentation. Further details are available from: GIEWS, FAO, Rome, Italy. E-mail: [email protected]; www.fao.org/giews; telephone no. (+39) 06 570 53099.

The WFP part of these assessments dealing with the vulnerability analysis is available from WFP – Emergency Needs Assessment Guidelines, 1999; Emergency Field Operations Pocketbook, 2002, e-mail: [email protected]; and the FAO Guidelines.

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.fao.org/giews



Purpose & Objectives of Purpose & Objectives of CFSAMsCFSAMs

The primary purpose of CFSAMs is to The primary purpose of CFSAMs is to provide accurate, timely and credible provide accurate, timely and credible information on imminent food security information on imminent food security

problems in a country or a region so that problems in a country or a region so that appropriate actions can be taken by the appropriate actions can be taken by the

governments, the international community governments, the international community and others to minimize the impact of man-and others to minimize the impact of man-made or natural disasters on the affected made or natural disasters on the affected

populations.populations.


THREE MAIN COMPONENTS OF FAO/WFP CFSAMs

Crop Production and Food Supply

Assessment (FAO)

Vulnerability and Food NeedsAssessment(WFP/FAO)

Macroeconomic Context Affecting

Food Supply, Demand(FAO)


THE FINAL JOINT REPORTTHE FINAL JOINT REPORT

Integrated Picture

of Food Balance, Gap and

Food Assistance Needs


Table of Content of a Typical CFSAM ReportTable of Content of a Typical CFSAM Report(Adapted from ETHIOPIA 2004 Report)(Adapted from ETHIOPIA 2004 Report)

Mission Highlights1. OVERVIEW2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT

2.1 Macroeconomic situation2.2 Population2.3 Agricultural sector

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 20033.1 General3.2 Rainfall 20033.3 Area planted3.4 Factors affecting yields3.5 Other crops3.6 Livestock3.7 Cereal and pulse production forecast3.8 Secondary season (Belg) 2002, 2003 and 2004

4. CROP PRODUCTION SITUATION BY REGION5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION

5.1 Agricultural markets and prices5.2 Grain supply/demand balance

6. EMERGENCY FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS6.1 Review of Emergency Food Aid in 20036.2 Household Food Security Outlook in 20046.3 Nutrition6.4 Relief Food Aid Requirements in 20046.5 Food Basket Considerations6.6 Local Purchases6.6 Emergency Food Security Reserve6.8 Implementation

Whenever it is relevant, public health issues such as the HIV/AIDS affecting food security and agriculture are also included.


Economic AnalysisEconomic Analysis


Macroeconomic Profile of the Macroeconomic Profile of the CountryCountry

• National Socio-Economic Parameters

• Socio-Economic Conditions of the most affected

• Agriculture Sector in the National Economy


Economic Parameters - Economic Parameters - DomesticDomestic

• Economic Growth/Decline – GNP/GDP, Purchasing Power Parity, per capita levels

• Fiscal Position – Deficit, govt. spending,

• Inflation – food price inflation, effect on purchasing power

• Unemployment – formal/informal sectors


Economic Parameters - Economic Parameters - ExternalExternal

• National Trade Balance Position - Currency Position – Exchange rate changes, reserves, etc.

• National debt


Socio-Economic Conditions Socio-Economic Conditions of the Most Affectedof the Most Affected

• Per Capita or Household incomes

• In-kind Wage Earnings• Income Distribution• HIV/AIDS and other factors


General Development General Development IndicatorsIndicators

• Human Development Index• Poverty levels – various

definitions


Agriculture Sector in the Agriculture Sector in the National EconomyNational Economy

• Size and Share of the Sector• Employment and Livelihood,

Dependence on Agriculture• Export Contributions of

Agriculture• Ag. & economic policy changes


Food Production/BalanceFood Production/Balance


National Food Balance SheetNational Food Balance Sheet

• Domestic Availability•Total Utilization

• Import Requirements


Table. Country X: Total grain supply/demand balance, Table. Country X: Total grain supply/demand balance, January–December 2004 (‘000 tonnes)January–December 2004 (‘000 tonnes)

Domestic availability 13 800 Opening stocks Production Main season Secondary season

50013 30013 000

300Total utilization 14 010 Food use Feed use Seed use Losses Exports Closing stocks

10 944300650

139070

656Import requirement 210Commercial importsFood aid received and pledged

5060

Uncovered deficit 100


Domestic AvailabilityDomestic Availability

• Opening stocks• Domestic production• Commercial and concessional

imports


Stocks: Opening and Stocks: Opening and ClosingClosing

• On-Farm Stocks• Private Stocks• Publicly-Held Stocks• Stocks in Ports and Transit


Crop Production EstimationCrop Production Estimation

• Information – GOs, NGOs, Organizations • Macrolevel – Satellite imagery and data,

Rainfall data • Farmer surveys, crop cutting experiments• Factors affecting current production • Market/trader visits – cross-checks• Yield comparison with last, normal, best, worst• Other important sources of food and income


• Commercial import capacity• Concessional imports• Uncovered deficit

• Of which emergency food aid pledged/anticipated

Import RequirementsImport Requirements


Commercial Food ImportsCommercial Food Imports (Ability and willingness to import by public (Ability and willingness to import by public

and private sectors)and private sectors)• Import capacity

– Export earnings – historical, current– Import parity prices– Other priorities for imports– Commercial market capacity (effective demand)

• Degree of currency control– Foreign exchange for food imports

• Degree of grain marketing control– Private versus government trading


• Human consumption• Apparent consumption rates• Population estimates

• Feed use• Seed use• Industrial uses• Post-harvest losses• Exports• Closing stocks

Total Food UtilizationTotal Food Utilization


Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment


Vulnerability/Needs Vulnerability/Needs Assessment (WFP)Assessment (WFP)

• Review of emergency food aid • Household food security outlook for next year• Nutrition status• Coping mechanisms• Food aid needs and targeting of assistance• Relief food aid requirements in 2004• Food basket considerations• Local purchases• Emergency food security reserves • Logistics issues• Implementation and other issues


Short Term Food Security Short Term Food Security StrategyStrategy

• Number of people in need of assistance and the volume and composition of food aid (WFP)

• Reconciliation of the national food gap (FAO side) and the total assistance requirement (WFP side)

• Recommendations


If you have any comments or suggestions on the methodology, special reports, or this presentation, please send them to:

[email protected]


global information and early warning system (giews) on food and agriculture

Documents

food production

food supply situation5

food supply assessmentsfood

review of emergency

food basket considerations6

serious food emergencies

relief food aid requirements

inflation food price