Global Market Forecast

Latin America & the Caribbean 2019-2038

Arturo Barreira

President, Airbus Latin America and Caribbean

01

Airbus in Latin

America &

Caribbean

02

Airbus Global

Market Forecast

for Latin

America &

Caribbean

End December 2018 Source: Fleet Analyzer, OAG, SABRE *From 2017/08 – 2018/07

Aircraft in operation

increased by 86%

x6 increase in the backlog

RPKs by 110%

Regional evolution

1487

10.8

73

1008

368

800

16.1

90

150

175

Aircraft in operation

Airlines

Avg fleet age (yrs)

Aircraft in backlog

RPK (billions)*

2000 2018

Yearly

Update

End October 2019 Source: Airbus internal Pax & Freighter a/c Leased a/c included

Airbus presence

A300

A320

A330

A340

11

655

40

5

11 A350

Monthly

Update

722 aircraft in service

623 to be delivered

17 operators

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

Orders

Year

25 years of cumulative orders

X 3 1228

602

Boeing

Monthly

Update

End October 2019 Source: Airbus internal, Boeing

Airbus has

secured 67% of net orders since 1994

End October 2019 Only pax a/c Source: Airbus internal, Ascend

Airbus fleet in-service

Monthly

Update

623 to be delivered

24 customers and operators

13%

91 127

169 172 179 199

235

294

345 344

432

479 515

557 590 592

608

654

700 706

0

200

400

600

800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Aircraft in service

Year

60%

The undisputed aircraft of choice for Latin America

71% Orders

Market Share

End October 2019 Source: Airbus, Boeing Leased a/c included

leads MAX

11

Customers 6

Customers

MAX

Monthly

Update

71%

29%

End October 2019 Source: Airbus Leased a/c included

The neo is flying in Latin America

VivaAerobus

16 x A320neo PW

Azul

32 x A320neo CFM

JetSmart

1 x A320neo PW

LATAM

11 x A320neo PW

Volaris

16 x A320neo PW

6 x A321neo PW

Avianca

9 x A320neo CFM

2 x A321neo CFM

119 A320neo Family aircraft delivered

Monthly

Update

Sky Airlines

12 x A320neo PW

Interjet

6 x A320neo CFM

8 x A321neo CFM

Airbus Order Backlog

623 Total order backlog

End October 2019 Source: Airbus

Leased a/c included Passenger a/c

428

27

3

163

1

Monthly

Update

01

Airbus in Latin

America &

Caribbean

02

Airbus Global

Market Forecast

for Latin

America &

Caribbean

Economy mainly driven by private consumption

Latin America & the Caribbean economy expected to get back to growth

Socio & Macro economy

Real GDP (trillions, 2015 US$)

GMF 2019 forecast

2018-2038 CAGR

2.9%

Historical

1998-2018 CAGR

2.2%

Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Economic growth will accelerate

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2018 2028 2038

Governmentconsumption

Net trade

Grossdomesticinvestment

Privateconsumption

Real GDP (trillions, 2015 US$)

66% 66%

66%

Latin America & the Caribbean Middle Class** expected to represent 74% of the population by 2038

Socio & Macro economy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Middle

Class** 310 million 410 million 560 million

61% 63%

74%

Forecast History Million Share Middle Class**

Middle class expected to grow from 410m people today, to 560m by 2038

Source: Oxford Economics,

Airbus GMF 2019

Upper Class***

Middle Class**

Lower Class*

% Middle Class

* Households with yearly

income between US$0 and

US$20,000 at PPP in

constant 2015 prices

** Households with yearly

income between US$20,000

and US $150,000 at PPP in

constant 2015 prices

*** Households with yearly

income above US$150,000

at PPP in constant 2015

prices

0.01

0.1

1

10

0 20 40 60 80 100

Socio & Macro economy

Other

Latin America & the Caribbean

Bubble size proportional

to population

2018 trips per capita

2018 real GDP per capita (2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

In 2018, there were ~0.43 trips per capita for Latin American & the Caribbean

countries

Brazil

0.45 trips per capita

Mexico

0.46 trips per capita

Colombia

0.56 trips per capita

Chile

0.89 trips per capita

Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019

Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country

0.01

0.1

1

10

0 20 40 60 80 100

Socio & Macro economy

Other

Latin America & the Caribbean

Bubble size proportional

to population

2038 trips per capita

2038 real GDP per capita (2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

By 2038, Latin America & the Caribbean trips per capita will double (~0.86)

Brazil

1.00 trips per capita

Mexico

0.74 trips per capita

Colombia

1.32 trips per capita

Chile

2.26 trips per capita

Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019

Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country

O&D traffic has grown by 6.2% per year since 2002

Historical traffic

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Intl - CIS

Intl - Middle East

Intl - Africa

Intl - Asia/Pacific

Intl - Europe

Intl - Latin America

Intl - North America

Domestic

Source: Sabre, Airbus GMF 2019

O&D passengers per year, from/to/within Latin America & the Caribbean (millions)

x10.2

x7.2

x3.2

x4.0

x2.0

x2.5

x2.1

x3.1

2018 vs.

2002

Traffic from/to/within Latin American & the Caribbean countries has been

multiplied by 2.6 since 2002

71% of the additional traffic generated since 2002 is from Brazil, Mexico and Colombia

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Millions

Brazil

Mexico

Colombia

Argentina

Chile

Peru

Dominican Rep.

Ecuador

Bolivia

Cuba

Puerto Rico

Costa Rica

Jamaica

Bahamas

Panama

Venezuela

Trinidad & Tobago

Belize

Guatemala

Aruba

x3.4

2002

2018

Historical traffic

x3.0 x4.7

x4.5 x3.2

x1.2 x2.7 x1.7 x1.3

x2.8 /2.6

x2.2 x1.8

x1.4 x1.8

x4.3

x2.7 x3.8

x2.8 x3.3

Source: Sabre, Airbus GMF 2019

Top 20 O&D passengers by origin Latin America & the Caribbean countries (millions)

Brazil, Mexico and Colombia leading Latin America and the Caribbean

passenger traffic growth

O&D traffic from/to/within Latin America & the Caribbean forecast to grow at 4.2% per year

North America

4.0%

CIS

4.1% Europe

3.4%

Asia-Pacific

5.2%

Middle East

6.9%

Africa

5.3%

Traffic forecast

Source: Airbus GMF 2019

O&D traffic forecast – 2018-2038 CAGR

Latin America & the Caribbean O&D traffic expected to grow strongly over

the next 20 years

Domestic &

Intra-regional

4.4%

Domestic & Intra-regional

Latin America & the

Caribbean

4.4%

Latin America & the

Caribbean - Rest of World

3.9%

Total

4.2%

Traffic from/to/within Latin America & the Caribbean forecast to multiply by 2.3 by 2038

Traffic forecast

Source: Airbus GMF 2019

O&D passengers on TOP20 country-pairs from/to/within Latin America & the Caribbean (millions)

By 2038, 62% of additional traffic driven by Domestic markets

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

0 50 100 150 200 250

Millions

Domestic Brazil

Domestic Mexico

Domestic Colombia

Mexico - USA

Domestic Chile

Domestic Peru

Domestic Argentina

Dominican Republic - USA

Brazil - USA

Domestic Bolivia

Domestic Ecuador

Puerto Rico - USA

Colombia - USA

Argentina - Brazil

Jamaica - USA

Mexico - Canada

Argentina - USA

Costa Rica - USA

Peru - USA

Ecuador - USA

2018

2038

x2.5 x2.2 x2.3

x2.7 x2.3

x2.5 x1.7 x2.5

x1.9

x1.8

x2.3 x2.4 x2.9

x3.1 x3.0

x2.1

x2.3 x2.6

x1.8 x2.5

In 2038, Latin America & the Caribbean home to 9 Aviation Mega-Cities

Sao Paulo

Buenos Aires

Santiago

Lima

Mexico City

Panama City

Bogota

2038

9 Aviation

Mega-cities

261.1k Daily Passengers:

Long-haul traffic

to/from/via Aviation

Mega-Cities

Rio de Janeiro

Cancun

Traffic forecast

O&D traffic growth will boost Aviation Mega-Cities in the region

Source: Airbus GMF 2019

+2

x2.6

>50,000 daily long-haul passengers

>20,000 daily long-haul passengers

>10,000 daily long-haul passengers

In 2018, Latin America & the Caribbean had 7 Aviation Mega-Cities

Sao Paulo

Buenos Aires

Santiago

Lima

Mexico City

Panama City

Bogota

2018

7 Aviation

Mega-cities

99.9k Daily Passengers:

Long-haul traffic

to/from/via Aviation

Mega-Cities

Source: Airbus GMF 2019

>50,000 daily long-haul passengers

>20,000 daily long-haul passengers

>10,000 daily long-haul passengers

Aircraft demand is split between growth (57%) and replacement (43%)

Fleet forecast

1,460

300

1,160

1,540

2,700

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Beginning 2019 2038 New Deliveries

Stay

Replace

Growth

Number of aircraft

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) | Figures rounded to nearest 10

Source: Airbus GMF 2019

Demand for some 2,700 new aircraft in Latin America & the Caribbean

New deliveries 1,460

3,000

Demand for some 2,700 new aircraft in Latin America & the Caribbean

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) | Figures rounded to nearest 10

Source: Airbus GMF 2019 Fleet forecast

2,400 aircraft

89% share of total new del.

200 aircraft

7% share of total new del.

100 aircraft

4% share of total new del

SMALL MEDIUM LARGE

Services demand forecast

Services market in Latin America & the Caribbean worth a cumulative

US$268bn over the next 20 years

SERVICES VALUE

US$268bn

NEW PILOTS

47,550

NEW TECHS

64,160

TECHNICIANS

10% of global

demand

9% of global

demand

PILOTS

5% of total

market value

SERVICES MARKET

Fleet forecast

Source: Airbus GSF 2019