Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, World Bank.

Note: “2015-2016 low” represents the lowest growth rate recorded in 2015 or 2016. Last observation is for June 2019.

Recent global data at post-crisis lows

Overview

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Chart of the Month

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Special Focus: Capital flows, currency depreciations, and monetary policy •

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Table of Contents

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Industrial production Global goods trade

% Growth, year-on-yearRange of 90% of values since 2010Full range2015-16 lowLatest

Global Monthly September 2019

2

September 2019

Monthly Highlights

FIGURE 1.B Average tariffs on U.S.-China bilateral trade

FIGURE 1.C 10-year sovereign bond yields

Source: Bown (2019), Haver Analytics, World Bank. A. Contraction is calculated based on quarterly GDP growth per capita. Sample includes 90 countries in total. B. Trade-weighted average tariffs computed from product-level tariff and trade data, weighted by US exports to the world and China's exports to the world in 2017. Constructed by Bown (2019) with data from Trade Map and Market Access Map (International Trade Centre, marketanalysis.intracen.org), and China's Ministry of Finance's announcements, and USTR announcements C. Last observation is September 18th.

FIGURE 1.A Share of global GDP in countries where per capita activity contracted in either of the last two quarters

05

1015202530

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8

Sep-

18

Jan-

19

May

-19

Oct

-19

China's tariff on U.S. exportsU.S. tariff on Chinese exports

Percent

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

0

1

2

3

4

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8

Sep-

18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-1

9

Sep-

19PercentPercent

Italy U.K.U.S. PolandGermany (RHS) Japan (RHS)

05

101520253035

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Share of world GDP

3

September 2019

FIGURE 2.B Capital flows to EMDEs

FIGURE 2.A Monetary policy in EMDEs

FIGURE 2.C Commodity price movements

Source: Institute of International Finance, World Bank. A. EMDE policy rate shows GDP-weighted nominal policy rates, using constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP weights. Sample includes 15 EMDEs. Last observation is the first week of September 2019. B. Equity flows include Brazil, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, Qatar, Sri Lanka, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, and Thailand. Debt flows include Hungary, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey. Last observation is August 2019. C. “Metals” includes iron ore

-8-6-4-20246

0

2

4

6

8

10

2016 2017 2018 2019

EMDEs loosening policy, RHSEMDEs tightening policy, RHSEMDE policy rate

Percent Number of EMDEs

-40-30-20-10

0102030

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

Jun-

18

Sep-

18

Dec

-18

Mar

-19

May

-19

Aug-

19

Equity DebtUS$, billions, cumulative 12-week flows

-8

-4

0

4

8

Beve

rage

s

Met

als

Ener

gy

Raw

Mat

eria

ls

Food

Ferti

lizer

s

Prec

ious

Met

als

July August

Percent, month-on-month

4

September 2019

FIGURE 3.B Growth in the Euro Area

FIGURE 3.A Historical revisions to U.S. GDP growth

FIGURE 3.C Standard deviation of currency movements

Source: ArchivaL Federal Reserve Economic Data (ALFRED), Haver Analytics, World Bank. A. Vintage data is for June 27, 2019. Revised data is for July 26, 2019. B. Last observation is 2019Q2. C. “Advanced economy currencies” is a simple average of the Euro and U.S. dollar. “Emerging market currencies” is a simple average of Brazil, India, South Africa, and Turkey. Last observation is September 18th.

0

1

2

3

4

5

18Q

1

18Q

2

18Q

3

18Q

4

19Q

1

Percent, quarter-on-quarter, saarPrevious vintageLatest data

-10123456

17Q

1

17Q

2

17Q

3

17Q

4

18Q

1

18Q

2

18Q

3

18Q

4

19Q

1

19Q

2

Euro Area Italy GermanyPercent, quarter-on-quarter, saar

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Pre-Brexitpound

Post-Brexitpound

Advancedeconomycurrencies

EMDEcurrencies

Percent

5

September 2019

FIGURE 4.B Growth in major commodity exporters

FIGURE 4.A Purchasing Managers’ Index in China

FIGURE 4.C Industrial production in commodity importers

Source: Haver Analytics, World Bank. A. Manufacturing and services are measured by Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion in economic activity; readings below 50 indicate contraction. 3-month moving average. Last observation is August 2019. C. Industrial production is a GDP-weighted average of 65 EMDEs. Last observation is July 2019.

47

49

51

53

55

Oct

-15

Apr-1

6

Oct

-16

Apr-1

7

Oct

-17

Apr-1

8

Oct

-18

Apr-1

9

Index, 50+=expansion Caixin ManufacturingOfficial ManufacturingCaixin servicesOfficial services

0

1

2

3

4

5

18Q

318

Q4

19Q

119

Q2

18Q

318

Q4

19Q

119

Q2

18Q

318

Q4

19Q

119

Q2

Russia Brazil Nigeria

Percent, year-on-year1990-2007 average2010-2018 average

0

2

4

6

8

10

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr-1

9

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9Percent, year-on-year

1990-2018 Average

6

September 2019

FIGURE 5.B Pass-through from significant currency depreciations

FIGURE 5.A Correlation between inflation and effective exchange rate changes

FIGURE 5.C Variance decomposition of exchange rate movements, 1998-2007

Source: Ha et al. (2019), World Bank. Note: EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies. A. Correlation over a three-year rolling window between inflation and nominal effective exchange rate depreciations in the same quarter. The sample includes 51 economies. The median and interquartile range are for three-year window correlation during 1998-2018. B. Depreciations are defined as negative quarterly changes in the nominal effective exchange rate. The sample comprises 34 advanced economies and 138 EMDEs The bars show the interquartile range of pass-throughs. C. Median share of country-specific exchange rate variance accounted for by global, domestic, and exchange rate shocks based on country-specific factor-augmented vector autoregression models.

Special Focus: Currency depreciations, inflation, and central bank independence policy

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2018

Median Interquartile rangeCorrelation rate

-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.0

80-98 98-17 80-98 98-17 80-98 98-17

All Advancedeconomies

EMDEs

Interquartile rangeMedian

Ratio

0

10

20

30

40

Mon

etar

ypo

licy

Dem

and

Supp

ly

Dem

and

Supp

ly

Oil

pric

e

Domestic Global

Interquartile rangeMedian

Percent

7

September 2019

FIGURE 6.B Oil price shocks

FIGURE 6.A Domestic demand shocks

FIGURE 6.C Average pass-through

Source: Ha et al. (2019), World Bank. Note: Pass-throughs are defined as the ratio of the one-year cumulative impulse response of consumer price inflation to the one-year cumulative impulse response of the exchange rate change estimated from factor-augmented vector autoregression models for 29 advanced economies and 26 EMDEs over 1998-2017. A positive pass-through means that a currency depreciation is associated with higher inflation. Bars show the interquartile range and markers represent the median across countries. Shock-specific pass-throughs are aggregated using shares of currency movements accounted for by each type of shock as weights. A. Full sample estimations are over 1971 to 2017 but can vary at the country level depending on data availability. EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies.

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

All Advancedeconomies

EMDEs

Interquartile range MedianRatio

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

All Advancedeconomies

EMDEs

Interquartile rangeMedian

Ratio

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Fullsample

Post-1998 Fullsample

Post-1998

Advanced economies EMDEs

Interquartile range Median

Ratio

8

September 2019

Recent Prospects Group Publications Global Economic Prospects - January 2020 (forthcoming)

Commodity Markets Outlook - October 2019 (forthcoming)

Global Economic Prospects - June 2019: Heightened Tensions, Subdued Investment

Commodity Markets Outlook - April 2019: Food Price Shocks: Channels and Implications

Global Economic Prospects - January 2019: Darkening Skies

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers and Policies

Recent World Bank Working Papers Eurobonds: A Quantitative Analysis of Joint-Liability Debt

On Financial Development and Economic Growth in the Arab Republic of Egypt

Fiscal Rules for the Western Balkans

Casting a Shadow: Productivity of Formal Firms and Informality

Inflation in Low-Income Countries

Corruption, Regulatory Burden and Firm Productivity

Determinants of Participation in Manufacturing GVCs in Africa: The Role of Skills, Human Capital Endowment and Migration

The Extent of GVC Engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa

Better Policies from Policy-Selective Aid?

How Much Would China Gain from Power Sector Reforms? An Analysis Using TIMES and CGE Models

Recent World Bank Reports Beyond the Gap: How Countries Can Afford the Infrastructure They Need while Protecting the Planet

Fiscal Policies for Development and Climate Action

Doing Business 2019: Training for Reform

World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work

Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals 2018

TABLE A: Major Data Releases (Percent change, y/y)

(Percent change y/y)

Recent releases: August 18, 2019 - September 17, 2019 Upcoming releases: September 18, 2019 - October 17, 2019 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Mexico 8/23/19 GDP Q2 -0.8 % 1.3 % South Africa 9/18/19 CPI AUG 4.0 % Germany 8/27/19 GDP Q2 0.4 % 0.9% United Kingdom 9/18/19 CPI JUL 2.1 % France 8/29/19 GDP Q2 1.4% 1.3% Canada 9/18/19 CPI AUG 2.1% Brazil 8/29/19 GDP Q2 1.0 % 0.5 % New Zealand 9/18/19 GDP Q2 2.9%

United States 8/29/19 GDP Q2 2.3% 2.7% Malaysia 9/25/19 CPI AUG 1.4%

India 8/30/19 GDP Q2 5.0 % 5.8 % Italy 9/30/19 CPI SEP 0.4 %

Italy 8/30/19 GDP Q2 -0.1 % -0.1 % Germany 9/30/19 CPI SEP 1.4 % Indonesia 9/2/19 CPI AUG 3.5 % 3.3 % Portugal 9/30/19 IP AUG -3.4% Turkey 9/2/19 GDP Q2 -1.5 % -2.4% Indonesia 10/1/19 CPI SEP 3.5 % South Korea 9/2/19 GDP Q2 2.0 % 1.7% Brazil 10/1/19 IP AUG -2.5% Turkey 9/3/19 CPI AUG 15.0% 16.6% Thailand 10/1/19 CPI SEP -0.7% South Africa 9/3/19 GDP Q2 0.9 % 0.0 % Turkey 10/3/19 CPI SEP 15.0% Australia 9/3/19 GDP Q2 1.4 % 1.7% Spain 10/8/19 IP AUG 0.8% Euro Area 9/6/19 GDP Q2 1.2 % 1.3% Brazil 10/9/19 CPI SEP 3.4% Japan 9/8/2019 GDP Q2 0.8% 1.0% United Kingdom 10/10/19 IP AUG -0.9 % Argentina 9/9/2019 IP JUL -1.9% -7.2% Mexico 10/11/19 IP AUG -1.7% United Kingdom 9/9/19 IP JUL -0.9 % -0.6 % India 10/11/19 IP AUG 4.3 % Mexico 9/11/19 IP JUL -1.7% -2.9% Turkey 10/14/19 IP AUG -0.4% India 9/12/19 IP JUL 4.3 % 1.2% Euro Area 10/14/19 IP AUG -1.8% Turkey 9/13/19 IP JUL -0.4% -9.4% United States 10/17/19 IP SEP 0.4 % Spain 9/16/19 GDP Q2 2.1% 2.1% China 10/17/19 GDP Q3 6.2 %

9

September 2019

TABLE B: Activity and Inflation (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized)

Sources: Haver Analytics, IMF International Financial Statistics, World Bank.

1 Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industrial production, manufacturing" is used as a proxy. 2 Median inflation rate for each grouping.

TABLE C: Trade and Finance

Sources: Haver Analytics, IMF International Financial Statistics, World Bank.

1Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable.

2018 2018 2019 2019 2017 2018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Industrial production, sa 1 World 4.2 3.7 2.8 1.8 1.6 0.4 3.5 3.5 3.8 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.7 1.6 2.0 1.3 1.3 Advanced economies 2.8 2.2 1.7 0.5 -2.4 -0.8 2.4 2.3 2.4 0.7 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.9 -0.7 Emerging market and developing economies 5.5 5.2 3.9 3.1 5.5 1.5 4.7 4.6 5.2 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.2 5.2 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.2 Commodity-exporting EMDEs 2.5 2.9 5.6 1.7 0.0 -1.0 2.6 1.9 4.0 2.7 2.0 1.4 1.0 1.7 0.9 3.0 0.8 2.1 Other EMDEs 6.4 5.8 3.5 3.5 6.9 2.2 5.2 5.4 5.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.7 6.2 4.0 3.7 4.2 3.5 East Asia and Pacific 6.6 6.1 4.3 5.5 8.5 1.3 5.8 5.4 6.1 5.4 5.4 4.9 4.5 7.6 4.8 4.4 5.4 4.7 East Asia excl. China 7.1 5.0 9.1 5.0 -4.3 -5.3 3.7 3.1 7.3 4.9 3.7 2.9 -0.4 3.2 1.2 1.2 0.4 3.4 Europe and Central Asia 6.0 4.5 1.5 -2.7 4.4 0.9 3.8 3.3 3.0 1.8 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.7 1.6

Latin America and Caribbean 0.8 1.5 2.5 -3.5 -2.4 -0.1 1.9 1.2 1.2 0.4 -1.7 -1.2 -0.7 -1.8 -2.0 2.1 -2.6 -2.2

Middle East and North Africa 5.5 2.0 9.6 -6.2 -0.2 - -3.4 5.7 -1.6 -0.9 1.6 0.4 0.5 2.6 4.2 2.6 - - South Asia 4.6 5.5 6.1 5.4 -2.5 5.5 2.7 6.3 8.6 1.5 2.4 2.1 1.3 2.5 2.7 4.8 3.2 4.1 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.0 1.5 8.1 3.6 -8.6 2.3 1.9 2.2 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 5.0 0.4 -1.8 -2.2 Inflation, sa 2 World 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 1.9 2.0 Advanced economies 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 Emerging market and developing economies 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.6 Commodity-exporting EMDEs 3.4 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.5 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.4 Other EMDEs 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.4 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.7 East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.4 4.1 2.8 2.3 2.7 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.6 Europe and Central Asia 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.1 2.5 3.2 3.0 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.8 Latin America and Caribbean 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.2 2.0 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 3.1 3.3 2.6 3.1 Middle East and North Africa 1.6 2.5 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.5 2.3 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.4 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 South Asia 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.4 4.3 4.8 4.0 3.9 4.1 3.3 3.7 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.4 5.3 4.4 5.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 5.4 3.7 3.4 3.9 3.5 2.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.3 1.9 2.1 2.1

2018 2019 2018 2019 2017 2018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Exports, nominal, US$, sa

World 10.4 9.5 -2.3 -2.1 -3.6 -3.6 6.9 4.7 10.9 2.5 -2.2 -0.3 -5.3 -2.0 -2.8 -0.9 -5.1 0.1 Advanced economies 9.7 8.3 -4.9 -1.8 -4.0 -4.1 5.0 1.4 9.1 0.8 -3.1 -2.6 -3.0 -4.7 -3.4 -1.6 -6.1 -0.9 Emerging market and developing economies 11.8 11.9 2.3 -2.4 -3.0 -2.8 10.6 10.8 14.2 5.7 -0.5 3.9 -9.1 3.2 -1.6 0.4 -3.2 1.9

Commodity-exporting EMDEs 17.7 15.3 6.9 3.3 -20.4 -7.6 13.9 10.9 18.6 10.5 4.1 -2.2 -1.8 -4.8 -2.7 -4.3 -8.2 -2.5 Other EMDEs 9.5 10.5 0.5 -4.7 5.3 -0.9 9.2 10.8 12.4 3.9 -2.3 6.5 -11.7 6.6 -1.1 2.3 -1.3 3.9 East Asia and Pacific 10.0 10.5 0.7 -7.9 2.4 0.2 9.3 11.1 13.6 3.1 -3.5 6.3 -16.4 8.4 -2.3 0.1 -1.5 3.3 Europe and Central Asia 16.5 16.6 -0.7 6.3 -5.6 -15.4 13.5 11.0 16.4 10.8 3.6 -1.4 4.6 -1.5 -1.2 -2.6 -8.8 1.2 Latin America and Caribbean 12.0 9.2 8.6 4.4 -10.7 3.9 9.5 6.1 10.2 7.5 3.1 3.5 -1.5 -5.0 0.6 5.6 -2.3 -0.8 Middle East and North Africa 15.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 5.6 10.3 19.2 5.2 2.4 -5.6 3.2 22.6 18.2 6.3 4.9 8.9 11.8 5.3 2.4 8.0 4.3 7.9 Sub-Saharan Africa 15.8 12.3 10.1 -5.3 -14.0 4.6 16.7 9.5 14.4 5.0 0.2 -1.3 -4.5 -5.2 1.0 -2.0 -3.6 -

Imports, nominal, US$, sa World 12.5 11.9 0.7 1.1 -27.4 3.0 2.4 27.2 14.6 3.2 1.5 -5.0 -12.1 -2.3 -5.8 -8.2 -5.7 -0.3 Advanced economies 9.7 9.8 -1.1 4.1 -12.5 -0.4 7.7 4.7 12.7 3.3 0.1 -1.8 -3.4 -3.1 -1.3 -1.0 -5.8 -2.1 Emerging market and developing economies 13.8 12.8 1.5 -0.2 -33.1 4.6 0.0 38.3 15.4 3.1 2.2 -6.4 -15.6 -1.9 -7.7 -11.2 -5.7 0.4

Commodity-exporting EMDEs 13.0 12.7 1.0 4.4 -42.1 8.8 -3.7 48.8 15.6 3.1 4.2 -8.0 -18.8 -1.0 -10.5 -13.1 -5.1 0.9 Other EMDEs 16.5 12.8 3.1 -14.5 6.3 -7.2 12.6 9.2 14.7 3.3 -5.1 -1.8 -4.4 -4.8 2.1 -4.7 -7.6 -1.3 East Asia and Pacific 17.5 14.9 7.1 -18.2 6.9 -6.8 16.8 11.9 19.4 4.6 -5.3 -0.7 -6.6 -5.7 3.4 -7.6 -5.7 -1.5 Europe and Central Asia 18.7 8.3 -17.7 0.0 10.1 -9.2 -0.3 -0.9 2.0 -1.9 -7.7 -7.1 -3.7 -7.5 -1.6 -3.9 -8.9 1.3 Latin America and Caribbean 6.0 12.3 5.9 2.7 -6.9 -8.0 14.0 6.4 16.7 11.8 1.6 7.0 -0.1 -0.9 0.6 2.4 -8.2 1.0 Middle East and North Africa 12.9 12.7 1.2 4.4 -44.0 - -5.2 53.0 15.5 2.6 4.6 -8.8 -19.7 -0.7 -11.4 - - - South Asia 22.7 13.3 13.6 -16.0 -11.4 5.7 21.1 12.7 16.6 3.6 -0.1 -0.6 -5.3 -0.1 2.3 0.1 -10.3 -9.3 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 12.0 4.6 9.1 - - 9.5 8.9 19.3 14.1 -2.2 - - - - - - - International reserves, US$1 World 7.0 -0.3 -0.6 0.2 1.6 1.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.2 -0.1 1.3 -0.3 Advanced economies 10.0 0.6 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.4 0.4 0.8 -0.1 0.8 0.2 -0.9 1.4 -0.3 Emerging market and developing economies 5.2 -0.8 -1.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 -0.2 -0.8 -0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.4 1.2 -0.2

Commodity-exporting EMDEs 3.7 1.4 -0.8 0.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Other EMDEs 5.8 -1.8 -1.1 0.1 1.4 1.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 -0.2 East Asia and Pacific 5.6 -1.8 -1.0 -0.1 1.2 0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -1.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.8 -0.3 Europe and Central Asia 10.1 3.7 -1.0 3.9 1.6 4.6 -1.1 -0.8 -0.2 1.5 2.6 0.7 0.9 -0.1 0.3 0.9 3.4 0.3 Latin America and Caribbean 1.4 -0.6 -1.0 0.4 2.4 1.4 -0.1 -1.0 -0.1 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.9 -0.5 Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 11.8 -4.9 -2.1 -1.4 4.7 3.0 -0.7 -0.8 -1.9 -0.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 3.1 0.9 0.2 1.9 0.3 Sub-Saharan Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)

10

September 2019

TABLE D: Financial Markets (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)

TABLE E: Commodity Prices

2018 2019 2018 MRV 1 2019 2017 2018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.97 1.78 1.88 2.16 2.38 2.38 1.90 2.13 2.13 2.22 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.38 2.13 2.13 ECB repo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 1.26 2.31 2.34 2.63 2.69 2.51 2.35 2.46 2.65 2.79 2.78 2.68 2.61 2.59 2.53 2.40 2.29 2.16 2.14 EURIBOR 3-months -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.31 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.33 -0.36 -0.41 -0.39 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.33 2.91 2.92 3.03 2.65 2.33 3.00 3.16 3.12 2.83 2.71 2.68 2.57 2.53 2.39 2.07 2.06 1.63 1.84 German Bund, 10 yr 0.37 0.39 0.28 0.29 0.04 -0.21 0.35 0.37 0.32 0.19 0.12 0.02 -0.03 -0.10 -0.17 -0.35 -0.45 0.00 -0.52 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 325 360 378 402 382 372 386 377 405 423 402 373 371 364 377 374 354 372 343 Asia 164 183 189 202 189 183 189 190 204 211 199 185 183 177 185 186 171 190 174 Europe 243 281 313 316 312 329 318 299 316 334 319 303 314 324 334 328 296 325 293 Latin America & Caribbean 429 471 487 523 500 500 498 492 528 549 519 493 488 486 505 510 509 528 495 Middle East 385 439 464 497 438 284 478 453 497 541 562 400 351 293 287 272 232 239 226 Africa 376 407 440 481 460 471 455 445 485 515 489 444 445 444 482 487 444 507 472 Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) 508 456 524 456 509 523 524 484 491 456 491 503 509 525 492 523 524 511 526 Advanced Economies ($ Index) 2086 1884 2184 1884 2108 2178 2184 2019 2041 1884 2028 2086 2108 2179 2046 2178 2188 2139 2196 United States (S&P 500) 2668 2507 2923 2507 2830 2942 2923 2712 2760 2507 2702 2798 2830 2939 2752 2942 2980 2926 2998 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1558 1368 1548 1368 1535 1556 1548 1454 1450 1368 1452 1507 1535 1583 1493 1556 1558 1532 1573 Japan (Nikkei 225) 22530 20019 24021 20019 21206 21276 24021 21920 22351 20019 20773 21580 21206 22163 20601 21276 21529 20704 21977

Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) 1139 966 1048 966 1058 1055 1048 954 995 966 1050 1051 1058 1079 998 1055 1037 984 1027

EM Asia 577 485 537 485 538 527 537 476 503 485 521 529 538 548 498 527 516 496 516 EM Europe 341 292 313 292 314 344 313 293 301 292 325 318 314 321 324 344 339 319 339 EM Europe & Middle East 275 246 259 246 259 276 259 247 252 246 270 263 259 266 263 276 274 256 265 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2811 2566 2577 2566 2746 2844 2577 2684 2600 2566 2948 2821 2746 2749 2684 2844 2844 2601 2709

Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area 0.89 0.85 0.86 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.91 Japan 112.11 110.34 111.52 112.74 110.17 109.86 112.09 112.76 113.40 112.06 108.96 110.43 111.11 111.65 109.87 108.05 108.16 106.14 108.20 Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil 3.19 3.65 3.95 3.81 3.77 3.92 4.10 3.76 3.80 3.89 3.74 3.72 3.84 3.90 4.00 3.86 3.78 4.03 4.08 China 6.76 6.61 6.81 6.92 6.75 6.82 6.86 6.93 6.94 6.88 6.79 6.74 6.71 6.72 6.86 6.90 6.88 7.07 7.09 Egypt 17.85 17.82 17.90 17.92 17.61 17.00 17.92 17.92 17.93 17.93 17.86 17.58 17.38 17.26 17.01 16.73 16.61 16.57 16.34 India 65.11 68.41 70.19 72.04 70.52 69.54 72.22 73.59 71.83 70.71 70.78 71.24 69.54 69.37 69.82 69.42 68.76 71.18 71.83 Russia 58.31 62.84 65.64 66.74 65.93 64.55 67.60 65.86 66.69 67.66 66.79 65.80 65.20 64.59 64.96 64.09 63.22 65.80 63.97 South Africa 13.31 13.25 14.09 14.31 14.02 14.39 14.75 14.54 14.10 14.31 13.85 13.83 14.38 14.15 14.45 14.58 14.03 15.18 14.69

Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 119.6 118.4 120.4 122.5 121.0 122.0 120.9 121.8 123.1 122.8 120.9 120.8 121.1 121.3 122.5 122.1 121.7 123.9 123.8

Sources: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, and World Bank. 1 MRV = most recent value.

2018 2019 2018 MRV 1

2019 2017 2018 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Energy 2 68 87 93 84 77 80 96 97 82 73 74 77 80 84 82 73 75 70 70

Non-energy 2 84 85 83 81 82 82 81 82 81 81 81 83 82 83 81 83 83 79 79

Agriculture 2 87 87 85 83 83 83 83 83 82 83 84 84 83 83 82 85 84 81 81

Metals and minerals 2 79 84 80 79 80 81 79 81 79 77 77 82 83 83 80 81 83 78 73 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 53 68 73 64 60 65 75 77 62 54 56 61 64 69 67 60 62 58 58 Gold ($/toz) 1258 1269 1213 1229 1304 1310 1198 1215 1221 1250 1292 1320 1301 1286 1284 1359 1413 1500 1500 Baltic Dry Index 1152 1346 1602 1356 793 994 1447 1545 1201 1322 1068 630 681 777 1032 1174 1871 1994 2312 Sources: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg. 1 MRV = most recent value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet.