global problems, smart solutions · 2015. 3. 9. · global problems, smart solutions every four...

Global Problems, Smart Solutions

Every four years since 2004, the CopenhagenConsensus Center has organized and hosted ahigh-profile thought experiment about how ahypothetical extra $75 billion might best be spent tosolve twelve of the major crises facing the worldtoday. Collated in this specially commissioned book,a group of more than fifty experts make their casesfor investment, discussing how to combat problemsranging from armed conflicts, corruption, and tradebarriers, to natural disasters, hunger, education, andclimate change. For each case, “AlternativePerspectives” are also included to provide a critiqueand make other suggestions for investment. Inaddition, a panel of senior economists, including fourNobel Laureates, rank the attractiveness of eachpolicy proposal in terms of its anticipatedcost–benefit ratio. This thought-provoking bookopens up debate, encouraging readers to come upwith their own rankings and decide which solutionsare smarter than others.

BJØRN LOMBORG is Director of the CopenhagenConsensus Center and Adjunct Professor in theDepartment of Management, Politics and Philosophyat Copenhagen Business School. He is the author ofthe controversial bestseller, The SkepticalEnvironmentalist (Cambridge University Press,2001) and was named one of the “Top 100 GlobalThinkers” by Foreign Policy magazine in 2010, 2011,and 2012, one of the world’s “100 Most InfluentialPeople” by Time, and one of the “50 people whocould save the planet” by the Guardian.

www.cambridge.org© in this web service Cambridge University Press

Cambridge University Press978-1-107-03959-9 - Global Problems, Smart Solutions: Costs and BenefitsEdited by Bjørn LomborgFrontmatterMore information

http://www.cambridge.org/9781107039599

http://www.cambridge.org


GlobalProblems,Smart Solutions

Costs and BenefitsEdited by

BJØRN LOMBORG






University Printing House, Cambridge cb2 8bs, United Kingdom

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York

Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge.

It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of education, learning and research at the highest international levels of excellence.

www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107039599

© Copenhagen Consensus Center 2013

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.

First published 2011, 2013Second Edition 2012Reprinted 2013

A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication dataGlobal problems, smart solutions : costs and benefits / edited by Bjørn Lomborg. pages cmIncludes index.isbn 978-1-107-03959-9 (hardback)1. Social problems – Economic aspects. 2. Problem solving – Economic aspects. 3. Cost effectiveness.4. Economics – Sociological aspects. I. Lomborg, Bjørn, 1965–hn18.3.g544 2013303.3´72 – dc23 2013013122

isbn 978-1-107-03959-9 Hardbackisbn 978-1-107-61221-1 Paperback

Additional resources for this publication at www.ranksmartsolutions.com

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.






Contents

List of figures viiiList of tables xiiList of contributors xviiiAcknowledgments xxiiiList of selected abbreviations and

acronyms xxiv

Introduction 1Bjørn Lomborg

PART I THE SOLUTIONS

1 Armed Conflicts 21J. Paul Dunnealternative perspective1.1 Anke Hoeffler 54alternative perspective1.2 Andrew Mack 62

2 Ecosystems and Biodiversity 72Salman Hussain, Anil Markandya, LukeBrander, Alistair McVittie, Rudolf deGroot, Olivier Vardakoulias, AlfredWagtendonk, and Peter H. Verburgalternative perspective2.1 Juha V. Siikamaki 114alternative perspective2.2 John C. Whitehead and Paul E.

Chambers 124

3 Chronic Disease 137Prabhat Jha, Rachel Nugent, StephaneVerguet, David Bloom, and Ryan Humalternative perspective3.1 Julia Fox-Rushby 170alternative perspective3.2 Marc Suhrcke 180

v






vi Contents

4 Climate Change 186

CO2 abatement 186Richard S. J. Tol

Technology-Led Mitigation 192Isabel Galiana and Christopher Green

Climate-Engineering R&D 203J. Eric Bickel and Lee Lane

Climate-Change Adaptation 225Francesco Bosello, Carlo Carraro, andEnrica De Cianalternative perspective4.1 Samuel Fankhauser 260alternative perspective4.2 Anil Markandya 266

5 Education 273Peter F. Orazemalternative perspective5.1 Lant Pritchett 305alternative perspective5.2 George Psacharopoulos 314

6 Hunger and Malnutrition 332John Hoddinott, Mark Rosegrant, andMaximo Toreroalternative perspective6.1 Anil B. Deolalikar 368alternative perspective6.2 Beatrice Lorge Rogers 375

7 Infectious Disease, Injury, andReproductive Health 390Dean T. Jamison, Prabhat Jha, RamananLaxminarayan, and Toby Ordalternative perspective7.1 Till Barnighausen, David Bloom,

and Salal Humair 427alternative perspective7.2 David Canning 433

8 Natural Disasters 439Howard Kunreuther and ErwannMichel-Kerjanalternative perspective8.1 Stephane Hallegatte 481alternative perspective8.2 Ilan Noy 500






Contents vii

9 Population growth 510Hans-Peter Kohleralternative perspective9.1 Oded Galor 581alternative perspective9.2 David Lam 588

10 Water and Sanitation 597Frank Rijsberman and Alix PetersonZwanealternative perspective10.1 W. Michael Hanemann 618alternative perspective10.2 Guy Hutton 627

11 Corruption and Policy Reform 632Susan Rose-Ackerman and Rory Truex

12 Trade Barriers and Subsidies 673Kym Anderson

PART II RANKING THE OPPORTUNITIES

Expert Panel Ranking 701Finn E. Kydland, Robert Mundell,Thomas Schelling, Vernon Smith, andNancy Stokey

Conclusion: Making Your OwnPrioritization 717Bjørn Lomborg

Index 719






Figures

1.1 Battle-related deaths,1946–2005 page 22

1.2 Fatalities, selected conflicts 231.3 Cost of conflict, illustration 251.4 Gross domestic product GDP per

capita in selected SGR and WGRcountries 26

1.5 Ethiopia: real GDP, 1950–2007 271.6 Nicaragua: real GDP, 1950–2007 281.7 Dominican Republic: real GDP,

1951–2007 281.8 Costa Rica: real GDP, 1951–2007 311.9 Refugees and internally displaced

persons, selected countries 321.2.1 Ethiopia: real GDP, 1950–2007 631.2.2 Nicaragua: real GDP, 1950–2007 631.2.3 Trends in per capita GDP

(constant 2000 US$) 641.2.4 GDI 651.2.5 GDP increases during conflicts,

1970–2005 (constant 2000US$, excluding conflicts of oneyear) 65

1.2.6 GDP decreases during conflicts,1970–2005 (constant 2000US$, excluding conflicts of oneyear) 66

1.2.7 Trends in percentage ofpopulation that is undernourished(by conflict type and fragilitystatus) 67

1.2.8 Mean life expectancy over time,by conflict and state fragilitystatus 67

1.2.9 Mean GDP per capita over time,by conflict and fragility status 68

1.2.10 Trends in secondary educationattainment rates, 1990–2008, byconflict and fragility status 68

1.2.11 Trends in average infantmortality rates, 1990–2008, byconflict and fragility status 68

1.2.12 Observed and simulatedproportion of countries inconflict, 1960–2050 70

2.1 Conversion of GLC2000 classesto IMAGE-GLOBIO land usecategories and respective MSAvalues 75

2.2 IMAGE-GLOBIO modelingframework 76

2.3 Map of regions 932.4 Agricultural productivity: change

in area of biomes for policyoption relative to the baseline 96

2.5 Linear benefit trajectory forincreased productivity:undiscounted and discountedbenefit estimates over the studyperiod, 2000–2050 98

2.6 Protected areas: change in area ofbiomes for scenario optionrelative to baseline 99

2.7 Linear benefit trajectory forprotected areas: undiscountedand discounted benefit estimatesover the study period,2000–2030 101

2.8 Reduced deforestation: change inarea of biomes for scenariooption relative to baseline 102

2.9 Linear benefit trajectory forreduced deforestation:undiscounted and discountedbenefit estimates over the studyperiod, 2000–2030 104

A2.1 Forest biome site locations andservices 108

viii






List of figures ix

2.1.1 Global maps of abovegroundcarbon, mammal speciesrichness, endemic speciesrichness, potential agriculturalrevenue, deforestation rates, andopportunity cost of avoidedemissions 119

2.1.2 Geographic targeting alternativeforest conservation programs(ecoregions selected forconservation) 121

3.1 Divergence of “critical income”for child and adult mortality 141

3.2 France: smoking, tax, and malelung cancer, 1981–2009 152

3.3 Mortality risks from smokingand obesity 158

3.1.1 Variability in point estimates ofincremental cost-effectivenessfollowing sensitivity analysis 175

4.1.1 Selected characteristics of thescenarios as a function of theinitial carbon tax; dots are takenfrom (Tol, 2010), triangles areinterpolated 190

4.2.1 Largest interregional fluxes ofemissions embodied in trade (MtCO2 y − 1) from dominant netexporting countries (Latched) tothe dominant net importingcountries (shaded), fluxes to andfrom Western Europe areaggregated to include the UnitedKingdom, France, Germany,Switzerland, Italy, Spain,Luxembourg, the Netherlands,and Sweden 195

4.2.2 Development of various globalmacrovariables indexed to 1990 195

4.3.1 Framing of SRM R&D decision 2104.3.2 Emissions-control rates under EC

and L2C 2114.3.3 Sensitivity of maximum

temperature change under EC tokey model inputs 213

4.3.4 Components of total damages forL2C and EC 216

4.3.5 Comparison of total damagesunder L2C to EC with SRM2C,as a function of the damagescaused by SRM (0 percent, 1percent, 2 percent, or 3 percent) 217

4.3.6 Sensitivity of SRM net benefitsto the climate sensitivity underNC and EC 218

4.3.7 Level of SRM usage under NCand EC for differing climatesensitivities 219

4.4.1 Temperature estimates of theIPCC SRES (IIASA), theWITCH model, and theAD-WITCH baseline scenarioused in this study 227

4.4.2 Mitigation adaptation andimpacts: a schematic “decisionspace” 232

4.4.3 Residual damage and adaptationexpenditure in thenon-cooperative scenario:LDAM_HDR 238

4.4.4 Residual damage and adaptationexpenditure in thenon-cooperative scenario:HDAM_LDR 239

4.4.5 Optimal adaptation in acooperative scenario 240

4.4.6 CO2 emissions 2404.4.7 Direct versus final climate

change costs as percentage ofregional GDP 249

4.4.8 Temperature change in the fourscenarios 252

4.4.9 Residual damages from climatechange in the four scenarios 253

4.4.10 Global investments in mitigationand adaptation (US$ billion):additional spending in theHDAM_LDR case compared tothe LDAM_HDR case 253

5.1 Marginal cost and benefit ofschooling 275

5.2.1 Education quantity and qualitycombinations 315

5.2.2 A critical level of educationquantity 317






x List of figures

5.2.3 Quality-adjusted schooling andper capita income 319

5.2.4 Alternative education quantityand quality paths 321

5.2.5 Returns to investment in humancapital, by age 322

6.1 Real monthly ammonia, urea,corn, and crude oil prices,2002–2011 354

6.1.1 Average crop yields (kg/ha) of allfood grains and coarse cereals,India 1972–1973 to 2004–2005 369

6.1.2 Calorie intake per person per day,by rural/urban residence, India,1972–1973 to 2004–2005 370

6.1.3 Percentage change in meancalorie intake from 1993–1994 to2004–2005, in comparison tocrop yield growth (kharif foodgrains) over 1991–1992 to2000–2001, across Indian states 371

6.1.4 Percentage of children under 3years who are underweight orstunted, India, 1992–1993 to2005–2006 372

6.1.5 Percentage change in theproportion of underweightchildren under 3 years of agefrom 1992–1993 to 2005–2006,in comparison to crop yieldgrowth (kharif food grains) over1991–1992 to 2000–2001, acrossIndian states 372

7.1 Changes in GDP and full incomein Kenya, 1960–2000 398

7.2 Intervention costs and effects: amore general view 400

7.3 Under-5 deaths from AIDS,malaria, and other causes,per births, SSA, 1990 and2001 404

7.4 Median prices of AL 20/120 mg(pack size 6 × 4) by country:AMFm versus non AMFm 409

8.1 Overall and insured losses,1980–2012 440

8.2 Elements of the risk assessmentprocess model 444

8.3 Example of an EP curve andDRR effect 447

8.4 Hurricane risk in St. Lucia: EPcurves with no DRR 448

8.5 Flood risk in Jakarta: EP curvesfor two baseline structures in twodifferent hazard locations with noDRR 450

8.6 (BCR) for collectiveflood-mitigation measure (1 mwall) for different discount ratesand time horizons 451

8.7 Earthquake risk in Istanbul: EPcurves with no DRR 453

8.8 Simplified structure of agovernment cat bond 469

8.1.1 Day’s curve for damagemitigation as a function of theforecast lead times 483

8.1.2 Number of people reported killedby weather-related naturaldisasters 1975–2011, indeveloping countries and at theworld level 487

8.1.3 BCRs of various risk-mitigationmeasures in Tunis 493

8.1.4 Example of risk-managementpolicy mix 495

8.2.1 Mortality from disasters,1975–2010 501

9.1 World population and annualgrowth rates of world populationaccording to different UNprojection variants 511

9.2 Cross-sectional relationshipbetween TFR and HDI, 1975 and2005 512

9.3 Food production, globally and inSSA, 1961–2009 513

9.4 Countries according to fertilitylevel, 2005–2010 515

9.5 Percentage illiterate amongwomen aged 15–24 and mostrecent level of contraceptive use,by TFR levels 515

9.6 Annual increments of thepopulation in high-fertilitycountries, intermediate-fertility






List of figures xi

countries, and low-fertilitycountries according to themedium projection variant,1950–2100 516

9.7 Population size, populationgrowth rate, life expectancy atbirth, and TFR for SSA,1950–2060 517

9.8 Life expectancy and TFR withpopulation growth isoquants:past and projected trajectories formore- , less- , and least-developed countries 522

9.9 Schematic framework for thedemographic transition andassociated social and economicchanges 523

9.10 The economic life cycle ofhunter-gatherers, pooragricultural populations, and richindustrial populations:consumption and labor income 536

9.11 Population age structure in SouthAfrica and SSA, 1960, 2010, and2060 537

9.12 Cost of providing familyplanning services in developingcountries 552

9.13 Cost of providing familyplanning services in Kenya(government clinics) percouple-year of protection 552

9.14 Social sector cost savings andfamily planning costs in Kenya,2005–2015 555

9.15 RAPID model simulation:Zambia GDP per capita asfunction of fertility trends basedon 6 percent aggregate economicgrowth rate 558

9.16 Effect of reduced fertility oneconomic growth in a unifiedgrowth model calibrated toNigeria 561

9.17 Robustness of benefit-costcalculations 566

9.1.1 Income per capita, 2000, andtime elapsed since thedemographic transition 586

9.2.1 Reason for not usingcontraception among womenwith unmet need 590

10.2.1 Illustrative cost curve forsanitation 630

11.1 Citizens’ corruption perceptions,2010 633

11.2 Human development andcorruption levels, 2010 638

11.3 Bribery incidence across incomegroups, 2010 638

11.4 The many consequences ofcorruption 639

11.5 Vicious and virtuous cycles 646






Tables

1.1 Accounting for the costs ofconflict page 25

1.2 Estimates of the costs of civilwars 29

1.3 Case studies including conflictcosts 30

1.4 Costs of conflict (relative toGDP) 33

1.5 Costs of conflict (US$ billion) 331.6 Costs of conflict, assumptions

for different regions (US$billion) 34

1.7 Share of conflicts averted fordifferent interventions (costsaverted, US$ billion) 36

1.8 Assessment criteria 371.9 UN interventions, 1948–2011:

key statistics 381.10 Conflicts, by region and intensity 411.11 Conflict prevention, cost p.a. per

conflict (US$ billion) 411.12 Conflict prevention, benefits,

and costs (US$ billion) andBCRs 41

1.13 Conflict intervention, cost p.a.per conflict (US$ billion) 42

1.14 Conflict intervention, benefits,and costs (US$ billion) andBCRs 43

1.15 Post-conflict reconstruction, costp.a. per conflict (US$ billion) 46

1.16 Post-conflict reconstruction,benefits, and costs (US$ billion)and BCRs 47

1.17 Conflict prevention, benefits, andcosts (US$ billion) and BCRs 48

1.18 Conflict intervention, benefits,and costs (US$ billion) andBCRs 48

1.19 Post-conflict reconstruction,benefits, and costs (US$ billion)and BCRs 48

2.1 Changes in MSA area, by biomeand world region, 1900–2000 77

2.2 Changes in wilderness area, bybiome and world region,2000–2050 78

2.3 Global assessments of the costsof protected areas 83

2.4 Estimated costs of expandingprotection (2007 US$ billions)from 10 percent to 20 percent 84

2.5 Studies that have estimatedglobal costs for reduceddeforestation (REDD) 86

2.6 Opportunity costs differentials,depending on methodologicalapproach 86

2.7 Overall summary of costestimates for policy options (allfigures 2007 US$ billion) 88

2.8 Spatial variables used in benefitfunction development 90

2.9 Temperate forest and woodlandvalue function 91

2.10 Tropical forest value function 912.11 Grasslands value function 922.12 Baseline area of terrestrial

biomes considered in analysis 942.13 Modeled projections of changes

in net carbon storage relative tothe baseline, 2000–2050 95

2.14 Agricultural productivity: valueresults, by region and by biomerelative to 2050 baseline 97

2.15 Annual and discountedaggregated regional benefits(2007 US$ billion) of

xii






List of tables xiii

agricultural productivityincrease versus 2050 baseline 98

2.16 Overall BCRs for agriculturalproductivity, 2000–2050 98

2.17 Protected areas: value results, byregion and by biome relative to2030 baseline 100

2.18 Annual and discountedaggregated regional benefits ofprotected areas versus 2030baseline 101

2.19 Overall BCRs for protected areas 1012.20 Reduced deforestation: value

results, by region and by biomerelative to 2030 baseline 103

2.21 Annual and discountedaggregated regional benefits ofREDD option 104

2.22 Overall BCRs for REDD 104A2.1 Ecosystem service categories

covered by temperate andtropical forest studies 107

A2.2 Valuation methods used byforest biome 108

A2.3 ESS categories valued ingrassland studies 109

A2.4 Valuation methods used ingrasslands studies 109

2.2.1 WTP for environmentalimprovements 129

2.2.2 Perceptions of globalenvironmental problems 129

2.2.3 Logistic regression models 1312.2.4 Sensitivity analysis of BCRs 132A2.2.1 World Values Survey data,

2005–2007 1333.1 Causes of chronic NCD death in

LMICs, age 5 and older,estimates from the GBD, 2010 138

3.2 Trends in the risk of deathbetween ages 15–59 for males,1970–2010, selected countries 140

3.3 Economic burden of NCDs,2011–2030 (2010 US$ trillion),based on EPIC model 144

3.4 Economic burden of tobacco,2011–2030 (2010 US$ trillion),based on EPIC model 144

3.5 VLL due to NCDs, byestimation method and incomegroup (2010 US$ trillion) 145

3.6 Post-heart-attack mortality, byincome, Indian males 146

3.7 Chronic disease control: keyinvestment priorities 150

3.1.1 Alternative assumptions 1733.1.2 Replication and extension of Jha

et al. estimate for hepatitis Bvaccination 174

3.1.3 Costs and effects of a 50 percentincrease in tobacco tax (from40–60 percent) 177

3.1.4 Costs and effects of twoalternative interventions forinvestment 177

3.2.1 Other meta-analysis findings onthe income elasticity of VSL 181

4.1.1 The social cost of carbon ($/tC) 1884.1.2 Selected characteristics of the

scenarios 1904.1.3 Corrected BCRs 1914.2.1 DICE model results from 2009

Copenhagen Consensus (3percent discount rate) 200

4.3.1 Performance characteristics ofconsidered emissions controlsregimes (2005 $ trillion) 212

4.3.2 Net benefit of SRM under nocontrols and emissions controls($2005 trillion) 215

4.3.3 Net benefit of costless andcomplete CO2 emissionsreductions beginning in 2025($2005 trillion) 219

4.3.4 BCR of SRM R&D under nocontrols and emissions controls 220

4.4.1 Adaptation: possible criteria forclassification 229

4.4.2 BCRs of adaptation in fourscenarios (non-cooperativescenario with adaptation andmitigation) 240

4.4.3 Timing of adaptation andmitigation in a cooperativescenario, 2035–2100 241






xiv List of tables

4.4.4 BCR of adaptation and of jointadaptation and mitigation 241

4.4.5 Sensitivity analysis, BCR ofadaptation and of jointadaptation and mitigation in acooperative scenario 242

4.4.6 Expenditure composition of theadaptation mix 242

4.4.7 BCR of the adaptation strategymix in a cooperative scenario 243

4.4.8 Sensitivity analysis: BCR ofadaptation and of jointadaptation and mitigation in acooperative scenario – OECDregions 244

4.4.9 Sensitivity analysis: BCR ofadaptation and of jointadaptation and mitigation in acooperative scenario –non-OECD regions 244

4.4.10 Marginal contribution of specificpolicy-driven strategies 245

4.4.11 BCR of policy-driven adaptationin the presence of market-drivenadaptation 250

4.4.12 Share of damage reduction in theoptimal policy mix 252

5.1 Change in the percentage ofprimary-aged children inschool after fee elimination inSSA 276

5.2A Random effects estimation of theeffect of changes in level andaverage schooling on ten-yearlabor productivity growth 283

5.2B Implied impact of schoolinglevel and economic and politicalfreedom on ten-year growth inlabor productivity 284

5.3 Estimated short-run effect ofCTTs on child time in school, bycountry 294

5.4 BCRs from various interventionsaffecting schooling 296

5.5 Incidence of malnutrition, byregion and income level, mostrecent measure available 297

5.1.1 Gains from return to rapidgrowth after the crisis in India in1991 versus downside scenarios 309

5.1.2 Secondary school scores inTanzania, 2007–2011 311

5.2.1 Countries with over 1 millionchildren out of school, 2009 316

5.2.2 Secondary-school dropouts inadvanced countries 318

5.2.3 Costs and benefits of educationfor interventions for Blacks 318

5.2.4 BCRs of closing the high-schoolgap for Blacks and Hispanics 318

5.2.5 Mean returns to investment ineducation, by country type 320

5.2.6 NPVs and returns to investmentin upper-secondary educationcompletion, OECD average 320

5.2.7 BCRs of early interventions indeveloping countries 322

5.2.8 Broadening the challenge 323A5.2.1 Failed countries’ index and

education characteristics 323A5.2.2 Returns to investment in

education in failed states 324A5.2.3 Returns to investment in

education in non-failed states 325A5.2.4 Cost-benefit values of

investment inupper-secondary-schoolcompletion 327

A5.2.5 Education quantity, quality, andper capita income 328

6.1 Global estimates ofundernourishment (hunger),1969–2010 336

6.2 Regional estimates ofundernourishment, 1990–2008 337

6.3 Global and regional prevalencesof stunting, 1990–2007 338

6.4 Global and regional prevalencesof underweight, 1990–2007 339

6.5 Projected change in worldcommodity prices presented asthe percentage change betweenbaseline 2010 and baseline2050 340






List of tables xv

6.6 Baseline projections for peopleat risk of hunger, 2010, 2025,and 2050 341

6.7 Baseline projections for numberof malnourished children, 2010,2025, and 2050 341

6.8 Projected change in worldcommodity prices presented asthe percentage change betweenbaseline and alternative scenario2050 342

6.9 Projected change in people atrisk of hunger presented as thepercentage change between thebaseline and alternative scenario2050 343

6.10 Projected change in number ofmalnourished children presentedas the percentage changebetween the baseline andalternative scenario 2050 343

6.11 Percentage change in producersurplus, consumer surplus, andwelfare between baseline andalternative scenario 344

6.12 Change in producer surplus,consumer surplus, and welfarewith different discount rates 345

6.13 Change in producer surplus,consumer surplus, and welfareusing a 5 percent discount rate,by region 345



6.16 BCRs of investments thatincrease yields 347

6.17 Predicted impact of climatechange on production of maize,rice, and wheat 348

6.18 General assumptions used tocalculate benefits and costs ofICT intervention 352

6.19 Estimates of impacts and BCRsof ICT intervention underdifferent benefit and costscenarios 353

6.20 Concentration of world fertilizerproduction capacity, 2008–2009 354

6.21 Impact of increased competitionon fertilizer intake and cropproduction 355

6.22 Impact of increased competitionon poverty reduction(conservative scenario) 356

6.23 CBA of investments 3576.24 BCRs of micronutrient

interventions 3586.25 Per child costs of interventions

to reduce stunting and mortalityat age 36 months 360

6.26 BCR estimates of investmentsthat reduce stunting 361

7.1 Levels and rates of change in lifeexpectancy, 1960–2010, by UNregion 392

7.2 Causes of under-5 mortality,worldwide, 2010, estimates fromChild Health EpidemiologyReference Group (000) 395

7.3 Gender variation in childmortality at ages 1–59 months,by cause in parts of India, 2005 395

7.4 Discounted YLL at differentages of death for several DALYformulations 402

7.5 Hypothetical BCRs fromadvancing time of vaccineavailability 414

7.6 Summary of solutions 4177.7 Disease control: investment

solutions 4187.8 Infectious disease, injury, and

reproductive health: solutions in2008 and 2012 CopenhagenConsensus exercises 419

A7.1 Sensitivity analysis 4208.1 Examples of disasters and

damages as percentage of GDP 4418.2 Hurricane risk in St. Lucia:

summary of selected BCRs 449






xvi List of tables

8.3 Flood risk in Jakarta: summaryof selected BCRs 450

8.4 Type of structures for case study:unmitigated attributes 452

8.5 Costs of alternative DRRmeasures for each baseline type 453

8.6 Earthquake risk in Istanbul:summary of selected BCRs 454

8.7 Earthquake risk in Istanbul:BCRs taking into account thevalue of life for baseline type 1and Measure 1 454

8.8 Effectiveness of retrofittingschools in Latin America 456

8.9 Average annual number killedper million as a function ofseismic risk class 457

8.10 Proposal I: BCA with 3 percentdiscount rate and VoL $1.5million 460

8.11 Proposal II (flood protection):discount rate 3 percent; VoL$40,000 462

8.12 Proposal III (wind protectionagainst hurricanes, cyclones, andstorms): 3 percent discount rate 463

8.13 CBA of several EWS projects 465A8.1 Discount rate 3 percent; VoL

$40,000 473A8.2 Discount rate 3 percent; VoL

$200,000 474A8.3 Discount rate 5 percent; VoL

$200,000 475A8.4 Discount rate 3 percent; VoL $6

million 4768.1.1 Potential benefits from avoided

asset losses thanks to earlywarning (withEuropean-standardhydro-meteorological services),and share of these benefitsactually realized with currentservices 486

8.1.2 Potential economic benefits fromimproved hydro-meteorologicalservices, and share of thesebenefits actually realized withcurrent services 490

8.1.3 Summary of benefits from andcosts of upgraded hydro-meteorological services 494

8.2.1 Disasters, 1992–2011 5019.1 Population size, TFR, life

expectancy, and populationgrowth rate in the ten mostpopulous SSA countries 517

9.2 SSA countries that are projectedto triple their population sizeduring 2010–2060 518

9.3 Benefits resulting from moderncontraceptive use among womenwho want to avoid a pregnancy,according to contraceptive usescenario, 2008 556

9.4 Summary of costs, benefits, andBCRs for family planningprograms 565

10.1 ESI estimates of economicimpacts of poor sanitation 606

10.2 ESI estimates of averageinvestment cost, by household,for various sanitationtechnologies: Indonesia 608

10.3 Calculation of BCR forsanitation as a business 611

10.4 Base-case results: borehole andpublic handpump interventionevaluated by Whittington et al.(2008) 614

10.5 Summary of BCR analysis 61611.1 Percentage of citizens

encountering bribery, by sector,by country 635

11.2 Public sector wages relativeto private sector wages,1990s 651

11.3 Outline of corruption solutions 66412.1 Comparative static effects on

economic welfare of tradereform under three differentprospective Asia-Pacificpreferential FTAs, 2025 683

12.2 Assumptions used in thebenefit-cost calculus 684

12.3 NPV of benefits and costs to2100, and BCRs, from reducing






List of tables xvii

trade barriers and subsidiesglobally under the WTO’sDDA 686

12.4 NPV of benefits and costs to2100, and BCRs, from reducingtrade barriers and subsidiesunder three alternativeAsia-Pacific regional tradeagreements (RTAs) 687

Pan.1 Prioritization of solutions:Expert Panel 701

Pan.2 Expert Panel’s allocation of US$75 billion 702

Pan.3 Prioritization of solutions: FinnKydland 707

Pan.4 Prioritization of solutions:Robert Mundell 708

Pan.5 Prioritization of solutions:Thomas Schelling 710

Pan.6 Prioritization of solutions:Vernon Smith 711

Pan.7 Prioritization of solutions:Nancy Stokey 713






Contributors

Experts

Finn E. Kydland, Nobel Laureate in EconomicSciences, is the Jeffery Henley Professor of Eco-nomics at the University of California, Santa Bar-bara. He has had previous appointments at CarnegieMellon University, the University of Texas atAustin, and the Norwegian School of Economicsand Business Administration. He was ResearchAssociate for the Federal Reserve Banks ofDallas, Cleveland, and St. Louis, and a SeniorResearch Fellow at the IC2 Institute at the Uni-versity of Texas at Austin. He was also AdjunctProfessor at the Norwegian School of Economicsand Business Administration, and he has held visit-ing scholar and professor positions at, among otherplaces, the Hoover Institution and the UniversidadTorcuato di Tella in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Hewas elected a Fellow of the Econometric Societyin 1992, selected as a member of the Consulta deSan Jose in 2006, and served on the Expert Panelsat the Copenhagen Consensus in 2008 and Copen-hagen Consensus on Climate in 2009 because ofhis high-level knowledge of economics in generaland political economy in particular.

Robert Mundell, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sci-ences, is University Professor at Columbia Univer-sity in the City of New York. He is adviser to anumber of international agencies and organizationsincluding the Government of Canada, the UnitedNations (UN), the International Monetary Fund(IMF), the World Bank, the European Commis-sion, the Federal Reserve Board, the US Treasury,and numerous governments, institutions, and com-panies. He prepared the first plan for a Europeancurrency and is known as the father of the theoryof optimum currency areas and the euro. He devel-oped the international macroeconomic model (the

Mundell–Fleming model), the theory of growth,and was an originator of supply-side economics.He has written extensively on economic theory,international economics, transition economies, andthe history of the international monetary sys-tem. Awards given to him include appointment asCompanion of the Order of Canada, the Global Eco-nomics Award of the Kiel World Economics Insti-tute, Germany, and appointment as Knight GrandCross of the Royal Order of Merit. He has servedon the Expert Panel at the Copenhagen Consensusin 2004 because of his expertise on internationaleconomics and transition economies.

Thomas Schelling, Nobel Laureate in EconomicSciences, is a Distinguished Professor of Eco-nomics at the University of Maryland. He has beenelected to the National Academy of Sciences, theInstitute of Medicine, and the American Academyof Arts and Sciences. He is Former President of theAmerican Economic Association, of which he isnow a Distinguished Fellow, and he was the recip-ient of the Frank E. Seidman Distinguished Awardin Political Economy and the National Academyof Sciences award for Behavioral Research Rele-vant to the Prevention of Nuclear War. In 1990,he left the John F. Kennedy School of Govern-ment, where he was the Lucius N. Littauer Pro-fessor of Political Economy. He has also servedin the Economic Cooperation Administration inEurope, and has held positions in the White Houseand Executive Office of the President, Yale Univer-sity, the RAND Corporation, and the Department ofEconomics and Center for International Affairs atHarvard University. He served on the ExpertPanel of the Copenhagen Consensus in 2004, theCopenhagen Consensus in 2008 and theRethinkHIV 2011 because of his expertise in com-peting development priorities, and he served as a

xviii






List of contributors xix

member of the Copenhagen Consensus on Climatein 2009 because of his expertise in global warmingpolicy choices.

Vernon Smith, Nobel Laureate in Economic Sci-ences, is Professor of Law and Economics andGeorge L. Argyros Endowed Chair in Finance andEconomics at Chapman University School of Law.He has authored or co-authored more than 250 arti-cles and books on capital theory, finance, naturalresource economics, and experimental economics.He serves or has served on the board of editors ofthe American Economic Review, The Cato Jour-nal, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organiza-tion, the Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Science,Economic Theory, Economic Design, Games andEconomic Behavior, and the Journal of EconomicMethodology. He was past president of the PublicChoice Society, the Economic Science Association,the Western Economic Association, and the Asso-ciation for Private Enterprise Education. He servedon the Expert Panel at the Copenhagen Consensusin 2004, the Copenhagen Consensus in 2008, theCopenhagen Consensus on Climate in 2009 and theRethinkHIV 2011 because of his expertise in policytrade-offs and development priorities.

Nancy Stokey is Frederick Henry Prince Distin-guished Service Professor of Economics at theUniversity of Chicago. She has published signif-icant research in the areas of economic growthand development, as well as papers on economichistory and econometrics. She was co-developer,with Paul Milgrom, of the no-trade theorem, acounter-intuitive development of the premises offinancial economics. She is a member of theNational Academy of Sciences and former vice-president of the American Economic Association,and she has held editorial positions with top jour-nals such as Econometrica, The Journal of Eco-nomic Growth, Games and Economic Behavior andThe Journal of Economic Theory. She served onthe Expert Panel at the Copenhagen Consensus in2004, the Copenhagen Consensus in 2008, and theCopenhagen Consensus on Climate in 2009because of her expertise in policy trade-offs anddevelopment priorities, and her ability to succinctlyexplain policy choices.

Chapter Authors

Kym Anderson is George Gollin Professor of Eco-nomics, foundation Executive Director of the WineEconomics Research Centre, and formerly foun-dation Executive Director of the Centre for Inter-national Economic Studies at the University ofAdelaide

J. Eric Bickel is Assistant Professor, Graduate Pro-gram in Operations Research, Center for Interna-tional Energy and Environmental Policy, The Uni-versity of Texas at Austin

David Bloom is Clarence James Gamble Professorof Economics and Demography and chair, Depart-ment of Global Health and Population, School ofPublic Health, Harvard University, USA

Francesco Bosello is Associate researcher, Fon-dazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan; Assis-tant Professor of Economics, University Statale ofMilan; Affiliate Scientist, Euromediterranean Cen-ter for Climate Change (CMCC),

Luke Brander is a researcher at the Institute forEnvironmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit

Carlo Carraro is President, Professor of Envi-ronmental Economics and Econometrics, Univer-sita Ca’ Foscari Venezia; President, Ca’ Fos-cari University Foundation; Chairman, ScientificAdvisory Board, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei(FEEM)

Enrica De Cian is Senior researcher, FondazioneEni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Rudolf de Groot is Associate Professor in the Envi-ronmental Systems Analysis group, WageningenUniversity

J. Paul Dunne is Professor at the School of Eco-nomics at the University of Cape Town, EmeritusProfessor of Economics at Bristol Business School,University of the West of England, Bristol, and vis-iting Professor at the Faculty of Economics, Chu-lalongkorn University






xx List of contributors

Isabel Galiana is Lecturer, Department of Eco-nomics, McGill School of Environment, McGillUniversity

Christopher Green is Professor of Economics,Department of Economics, McGill School of Envi-ronment, McGill University

John Hoddinott is Senior Research fellow, DeputyDirector in the Poverty Health and Nutrition Divi-sion, International Food Policy Research Institute

Ryan Hum is Special Lecturer, Faculty of AppliedScience and Engineering, University of Toronto

Salman Hussain is an Ecological EconomicsResearcher at the Scottish Agricultural College

Dean T. Jamison is Professor of Global Health,University of Washington, Seattle

Prabhat Jha is Professor of Economics, CanadaResearch Chair of Health and Development at theUniversity of Toronto, founding director of theCentre for Global Health Research, St. Michael’sHospital; Associate Professor in the Departmentof Public Health Sciences, University of Toronto;research scholar at the McLaughlin Centre forMolecular Medicine, professeur extraordinaire atthe Universite de Lausanne, Switzerland

Erwann Michel-Kerjan is Managing Director,Risk Management and Decision Processes Center;Adjunct Associate Professor, Operations and Infor-mation Management Department, Wharton School,University of Pennsylvania; Chairman, OECDSecretary General Board on Financial Managementof Catastrophes, OECD

Hans-Peter Kohler is Frederick J. Warren Profes-sor of Demography, University of Pennsylvania

Howard Kunreuther is James G. Dinan Profes-sor; Professor of Decision Sciences and Businessand Public Policy, Co-Director, Risk Managementand Decision Processes Center, Wharton School,University of Pennsylvania

Lee Lane is Visiting Fellow, Hudson Institute;Senior Consultant, NERA Economic Consulting

Ramanan Laxminarayan is Senior Fellow,Development and Environment, Resources for theFuture,

Anil Markandya is a Professor at the University ofBath, and Scientific Director at the Basque Centrefor Climate Change

Alistair McVittie is a researcher at the ScottishAgricultural College

Rachel Nugent PhD is a research scientist, Depart-ment of Global Health, University of Washington,Seattle; former deputy director of Global Health atthe Center for Global Development

Peter F. Orazem is Professor of Economics,Department of Economics, Iowa State University

Toby Ord is British Academy PostdoctoralFellow, Department of Philosophy, University ofOxford

Frank Rijsberman is CEO, CGIAR Consortium

Mark Rosegrant is Division Director in theEnvironment and Production Technology Division,International Food Policy Research Institute

Susan Rose-Ackerman is Henry R.Luce Professorof Jurisprudence (Law and Political Science), YaleUniversity

Richard S. J. Tol is Professor of Economics,Department of Economics, University of Sussex;Professor of the Economics of Climate Change,Institute for Environmental Studies and Depart-ment of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit,Amsterdam

Maximo Torero is Director of the Markets, Trade,and Institutions Division, leader of the GlobalResearch Program on Institutions and Infrastruc-ture for Market Development and Director for






List of contributors xxi

Latin America, International Food Policy ResearchInstitute

Rory Truex is PhD in Political Sciences, YaleUniversity

Olivier Vardakoulias is an analyst, and works indevelopment and environmental economics, andnef-consulting

Peter H. Verburg is Professor of Environmen-tal Spatial Analysis and head of the Departmentof Spatial Analysis and Decision Support at theInstitute for Environmental Studies, VU University,Amsterdam

Stephane Verguet Researcher, Department ofGlobal Health, University of Washington, Seattle

Alfred Wagtendonk is a researcher at the insti-tute for Environmental Studies at Vrije Universiteit,Amsterdam

Alix Peterson Zwane is Senior Program Officer onthe Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene Program, Billand Melinda Gates Foundation

Perspective Paper Authors

Till Barnighausen is Assistant Professor of GlobalHealth, Department of Global Health and Popula-tion, School of Public Health, Harvard University

David E. Bloom is Clarence James Gamble Pro-fessor of Economics and Demography and Chair,Department of Global Health and Population,School of Public Health, Harvard University

David Canning is Professor of Population Sci-ences and Professor of Economics and Interna-tional Health, School of Public Health, HarvardUniversity

Paul E. Chambers is Professor, Department ofEconomics and Finance, University of CentralMissouri

Anil B. Deolalikar is Associate Dean of theUniversity of California Riverside’s College ofHumanities, Arts and Social Sciences; Co-Director of Global Health Institute, University ofCalifornia

Samuel Fankhauser is Professor, Co-Directorof the Grantham Research Institute on ClimateChange and the Environment, London School ofEconomics

Julia Fox-Rushby is Professor, Health EconomicsResearch Group, Brunel University, London

Oded Galor is Herbert H. Goldberger Profes-sor of Economics, Core Faculty, Population andTraining Center, Brown University and Fellow,Department of Economics, Hebrew University,Jerusalem

Stephane Hallegatte is Lead Climate Change Spe-cialist, in special assignment with the World Bank –Sustainable Development Network

W. Michael Hanemann is Chancellor’s Profes-sor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Eco-nomics, University of California

Anke Hoeffler is Research Officer at the Centrefor the Study of African Economies, University ofOxford

Salal Humair is Research Scientist, Department ofGlobal Health and Population, Harvard School ofPublic Health; Associate Professor, School of Sci-ence and Engineering, Lahore University of Man-agement Sciences, Pakistan

David Lam is Professor, Department of Eco-nomics, Research Professor, Population StudiesCenter, Institute for Social Research, University ofMichigan

Beatrice Lorge Rogers is Professor of Economicsand Food Policy Director, Food Policy and AppliedNutrition Program, Friedman School of NutritionScience and Policy, Tufts University






xxii List of contributors

Guy Hutton is an International DevelopmentEconomist

Andrew Mack is Director, Human Security ReportProject, School for International Studies, SimonFraser University

Ilan Noy is Associate Professor, Department ofEconomics, University of Hawaii, Manoa

Lant Pritchett is Professor of the Practice ofInternational Development, Harvard KennedySchool

George Psacharopoulos is Education EconomicsExpert, formerly of the London School of Eco-nomics and the World Bank

Juha V. Siikamaki is Research Fellow, Resourcesfor the Future

Marc Suhrcke is Professor in Public Health Eco-nomics, University of East Anglia

John C. Whitehead is Professor and DepartmentChair, Department of Economics, AppalachianState University






Acknowledgments

This book and the Copenhagen Consensus 2012project are only possible because of the efforts ofmany people. I would like to thank the CopenhagenBusiness School and Denmark’s Foreign Ministryfor their support. I am grateful to those who haveworked on Copenhagen Consensus projects andrelated work, including Sandra Andresen, SaraCsepregi, Zsuzsa Horvath, David Lessmann andRoland Mathiasson, Kristine Pedersen, and TommyPetersen, and especially to the core project team ofSibylle Aebi, Sasha Beckmann, Ulrik Larsen, Hen-rik Meyer, Kasper Thede Anderskov, and DavidYoung, who saw the Copenhagen Consensus 2012to fruition. I am particularly grateful to the authorsand experts whose work forms these pages. Theirenthusiasm and dedication to creating excellentresearch is to be commended.

xxiii






Selected abbreviations and acronyms

AAF average annual number offatalities

AAL average annual lossAARPD average annual reduction in

property damageAC air captureACA anti-corruption authorityACT artemisinin combination

therapyAEIC American Energy Innovation

CouncilAFTA ASEAN FTAAGR area growth rateAKST agricultural knowledge,

science and technologyALP acquisition of life potentialAMFm Affordable Medicines

Facility-malariaAMMA African Monsoon

Multi-Disciplinary AnalysisAPEC Asia Pacific Economic

CooperationARPA-E Advanced Research Projects

Agency – EnergyART alternative risk transferASEAN Association of South East

Asian NationsBAU business as usualBAUWMM business as usual with more

moneyBCR benefit-cost ratioBIT bilateral investment treatyBRIC Brazil, Russia, India, and

ChinaCATS Community Approaches to

Total SanitationCBA cost-benefit analysisCBD Convention on Biological

Diversity

CCM chronic care modelCCP Cyclone Preparedness

ProgramCCS carbon capture and storageCCT conditional cash-transferCDC Centre for Disease Control

and PreventionCE climate engineeringCEA cost-effectiveness assessmentCEE Central and Eastern EuropeCER cost-effectiveness ratioCFS Committee on World Food

SecurityCLD chronic lung diseaseCLTS community-led total sanitationCMH Commission on

Macroeconomics and HealthCNCD chronic non-communicable

diseaseCOI cost of illnessCOP Conference of the PartiesCOPD chronic obstructive pulmonary

diseaseCoST Construction Sector

Transparency InitiativeCPI Corruption Perceptions IndexCPIA Country Policy and

Institutional AssessmentCR4 top-4 concentration ratioCRD chronic respiratory diseaseCRS/PC constant returns to scale and

perfect competitionCT cash transferCV coefficient of variationCVD cardiovascular diseaseDAH donor assistance for healthDALY Disability Adjusted Life YearDCPP Disease Control Priorities

Project

xxiv






List of selected abbreviations and acronyms xxv

DDA Doha Development AgendaDEC dietary energy consumptionDER dietary energy requirementsDEWS Distant Early Warning SystemDHS Demographic and Health

SurveysDRR disaster risk-reductionDSSAT Decision Support System for

Agrotechnology TransferEEA European Environment

AgencyEIA Energy Information Agency

(US)EITI Extractive Industries

Transparency InitiativeEP exceedance probabilityEPI Expanded Program on

ImmunizationESI Economics of Sanitation

InitiativeESS ecosystem servicesEU ETS EU Emissions Trading

SchemeEV equivalent variation in incomeEWS early-warning systemsFAO Food and Agriculture

OrganizationFCPA Foreign Corrupt Practices ActFDI foreign direct investmentFEMA Federal Emergency

Management AgencyFEWS NET Famine Early Warning

Systems NetworkFIT feed-in tariffFPU food production unitFSE former socialist economiesFSU former Soviet UnionFTA free-trade agreementFTAAP APEC FTAGAC Governance and

Anti-CorruptionGATT General Agreement on Tariffs

and TradeGAVI Global Alliance for Vaccines

and ImmunizationGBD global burden of diseaseGCB Global Corruption BarometerGDI gross domestic income

GDP gross domestic productGHG greenhouse gasGTAP Global Trade Analysis ProjectGWP gross world productHANPP human appropriation of net

primary productHDI Human Development IndexIA Impact AssessmentIADB Inter-American Development

BankIAM Integrated Assessment ModelIAVI International AIDS Vaccine

InitiativeICCC Innovative Care for Chronic

ConditionsICER incremental cost-effectiveness

ratioICPD International Conference on

Population and DevelopmentICRG International Company Risk

GuideICSID International Center for the

Settlement of InvestmentDisputes

ICT information andcommunication technology

IEA International Energy AgencyIFDC International Fertilizer

Development CenterIFI international financial

institutionIFPRI International Food Policy

Research InstituteILO International Labor OfficeIMF International Monetary FundIMPACT International Model for Policy

Analysis of AgriculturalCommodity and Trade

IMR infant mortality rateI-NGO international

non-governmentalorganization

IOM Institute of MedicineIPC Integrated Food Security

Phase ClassificationIPCC International Panel on Climate

ChangeIPR yield growth rate






xxvi List of selected abbreviations and acronyms

IRR internal rate of returnIRS/MC increasing returns to scale and

monopolistic competitionITA International Trade

AgreementITO International Trade

OrganizationIUCN International Union for

Conservation of NatureIUGR intrauterine growth restrictionJMP Joint Monitoring Program

(WHO/UNICEF)LDC less-/least-developed countryLMIC lower and middle-income

country/countriesMAC marginal cost of abatementMD marginal damageMDER minimum dietary energy

requirementMDG Millennium Development

GoalMDR multi-drug-resistantMEA Millennium Ecosystem

AssessmentMMC Multihazard Mitigation

CouncilMNC multinational corporationMSA Mean Species AbundanceMYI multi-year insuranceNCD non-communicable diseaseNGO non-governmental

organizationNIH National Institute of HealthNOAA National Oceanic and

Atmospheric AdministrationNPP net primary productNPV net present valueNRR net reproduction ratesNTB non-tariff barrierNTFP non-timber forest productsNWP numerical weather predictionODA Official Development

AssistanceODF Open Defecation FreeOECD Organisation for Economic

Cooperation andDevelopment

PAL Physical Activity Level

PAPI Public AdministrationPerformance Index

PDV present discounted valuePETS Public Expenditure Tracking

SurveysPIDI Proyecto Integral de

Desarrollo InfantilPPC production possibility curvePPP polluter-pays principlePPP purchasing power parityPRTP pure rate of time preferencePTWC Pacific Tsunami Warning

CentrePV present valueQALY quality-adjusted life yearR&D research and developmentRD&D research, development, and

demonstrationREDD deforestation and forest

degradationREF Renewable Energy

FoundationRF risk factorRIMES Regional Integrated

Multi-Hazard Early WarningSystem

RML Reuters Market LightROR rate of returnRPS renewable portfolio standardRTA regional trade agreementSAI stratospheric aerosol injectionSEC Securities and Exchange

CommissionSES socio-economic statusSGR strong-growth recoverySMS self-care and self-managementSRAS Seismic Risk Assessment of

SchoolsSRES Special Reports on Emissions

ScenariosSRM solar radiation managementSSA Sub-Saharan AfricaStAR Stolen Asset Recovery

InitiativeSVHL statistical value of a human

lifeTB tuberculosisTFP total factor productivity






List of selected abbreviations and acronyms xxvii

TFR total fertility rateTI Transparency InternationalTPP Trans-Pacific PartnershipTRIPS Trade-Related Aspects of

Intellectual Property RightsTSSM Total Sanitation and

Sanitation MarketingUN United NationsUNDP United Nations Development

ProgrammeUNEP United Nations Environment

ProgrammeUNFCCC United Nations Framework

Convention on ClimateChange

UNFPA United Nations PopulationFund

VIP ventilated improved pitVOI value of informationVoL value of lifeVOL value of lost output

VSL value of statistical lifeVSLY value of a statistical life yearVTT Technical Research Centre of

FinlandWDPA World Database on Protected

AreasWEF World Economic ForumWHO World Health OrganizationWMO World Meteorological

OrganizationWRF Weather Research ForecastingWSP Water and Sanitation ProgramWSSD World Summit on Sustainable

DevelopmentWTO World Trade OrganizationWTP willingness to payWVS World Values SurveyYLD years of life lost due to

disabilityYLL years of life lostYPLL years of productive life lost






global problems, smart solutions · 2015. 3. 9. · global problems, smart solutions every four...

Documents