global supply, demand and price outlook and impacts for canada · 2017. 1. 17. · exports imports...
TRANSCRIPT
Thomas Mielke, OIL WORLD, Hamburg 2017 AgDays in Brandon on 17 Jan 2017
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Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook and
Impacts for Canada
Presentation in Canada on 17 Jan 2017
Thomas Mielke, ISTA Mielke, Oil World,Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals
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Thomas Mielke, OIL WORLD, Hamburg 2017 AgDays in Brandon on 17 Jan 2017
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Rapeseed Global Trade Flows in 2016
Exports Imports
EU-28 (4%)
Canada (72%)
Australia (15%)
Ukraine (7%)China (26%)
Pakistan (9%)
Mexico (10%)
Japan (16%)
EU-28 (24%)
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Rapeseed Oil Global Trade Flows in 2016
China (16%)EU-28 (8%)
Russia (5%)
Australia (3%)
Exports Imports
India(9%)
EU-28 (5%)
Canada (67%)
U.S.A. (43%)
Norway (9%)
UAE (8%)
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Rapeseed production falling to a 5-year low of 62.1 Mn T 2016/17 (-1.9 Mn)
Farmers losing interest.
Biggest losses in -EU-28(- 2.2 Mn T)-China (-2.0 Mn T)-Ukraine (- 0.6 Mn T)
But sizeably rising crops in 2016/17 in Canada 19.2 (+0.8 Mn) Australia 4.1 (+1.2 Mn)
96/9797/98
98/9999/00
00/01 01/02
02/03 03/04
04/05 05/06
06/07 07/08
08/09 09/10
10/11 11/12
12/1313/14
14/1515/16
16/17F
15
20
25
30
35
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45
50
55
60
65
70World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)
RAPESEED & CANOLA
Production
Harvested Area
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EU- 28 : Rapeseed Supply & Demand ( Mn T )J u l y / J u n e
16/17F 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 Opening stocks . . 1.24 .91 .88 1.01 1.54
Output . . . . . . . . . 20.08* 22.31 24.29 21.24 19.80
Imports (a) . . . . . 3.90* 3.50 2.58 3.66 3.42 from: Ukraine. . . . .88* 1.11 1.26 1.77 1.10 Canada . . . . . .75* .44 .13 .07 .04 Australia . . . . 2.15* 1.82 1.08 1.46 2.07
Exports (a). . . . . . .45* .35 .59 .29 .08 Crushings . . . . . . 23.09* 24.32 25.35 23.99 22.75 Other use (b) . . . . .78* .81 .90 .75 .92 Ending stocks . . . .90* 1.24 .91 .88 1.01 (a) EU intra-trade is excluded. (b) Residual.
EU- 28 : Rapeseed Supply & Demand ( Mn T )J u l y / J u n e
16/17F 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 Opening stocks . . 1.24 .91 .88 1.01 1.54
Output . . . . . . . . . 20.08* 22.31 24.29 21.24 19.80
Imports (a) . . . . . 3.90* 3.50 2.58 3.66 3.42 from: Ukraine. . . . .88* 1.11 1.26 1.77 1.10 Canada . . . . . .75* .44 .13 .07 .04 Australia . . . . 2.15* 1.82 1.08 1.46 2.07
Exports (a). . . . . . .45* .35 .59 .29 .08 Crushings . . . . . . 23.09* 24.32 25.35 23.99 22.75 Other use (b) . . . . .78* .81 .90 .75 .92 Ending stocks . . . .90* 1.24 .91 .88 1.01 (a) EU intra-trade is excluded. (b) Residual.
Daily futures from 2 Jan 2015 until 13 Jan 2017Ja15 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja16 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja17
330
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420Euronext (Matif) futures (first position)
Daily Rapeseed Prices in Europe
Euronext (EUR/T)
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A u g u s t / D e c e m b e r2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exports Crush
Canada : Canola Disposals (Mn T)CANADA : Supply & Demand of Canola ( Mn T )
A u g u s t / J u l y16/17F 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13
Op. stocks 2.02 2.54 2.82* .59 .75* Output . . . . . 19.20* 18.38 16.41 18.55 14.02* Imports . . . . .08* .10 .08 .07 .13
Exports . . . . 10.10* 10.30* 9.14 9.18 7.27 Crushings . . 8.90* 8.32 7.36 6.98 6.72 Other use. . . .40* .38* .26* .23* .32*
End.stocks. . 1.90* 2.02 2.54 2.82* .59
.08* .10 .13
10.10* 10.30* 7.27
1.90* 2.02 .59
CANADA : Supply & Demand of Canola ( Mn T )A u g u s t / J u l y
16/17F 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 Op. stocks 2.02 2.54 2.82* .59 .75* Output . . . . . 19.20* 18.38 16.41 18.55 14.02* Imports . . . . .08* .10 .08 .07 .13
Exports . . . . 10.10* 10.30* 9.14 9.18 7.27 Crushings . . 8.90* 8.32 7.36 6.98 6.72 Other use. . . .40* .38* .26* .23* .32*
End.stocks. . 1.90* 2.02 2.54 2.82* .59
.08* .10 .13
10.10* 10.30* 7.27
1.90* 2.02 .59
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World supplies of rapeseed & canola are currently tight
Prices are currently also supported by a global tightness of all vegetable oils
Outlook:Canola prices in Canada will be largely determined by the price developments of the major oilseeds and oils on the world market
What the global outlook and what does that suggest for the timing of the marketing of Canadian oilseeds in the next 12 months ? ?
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Impacts from palm oil and other vegetable oils
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Thomas Mielke, OIL WORLD, Hamburg 2017 AgDays in Brandon on 17 Jan 2017
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Oil palms the by farmost productive crop
To produce 1 Tonne ofsoya oil requires 8 times as much acreagethan in the case ofpalm oil
(a) Calculated based on average crush and seed yield
10 years to 1995 10 years to 2005 10 years to 20150
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4Palm Oil Sun oilRape oil Soya oil
in Tonnes per Hectare
World Average Oil Equivalent (a)
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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17F
0
10
20
30
40
50Malaysia
Indonesia
Rest of World
PALM OIL : Exports of Key Countries (Mn T)
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17F
0
10
20
30
40
50Rapeseed oil
Sunflower oil
Soya oil
3 Seed Oils: World Exports (Mn T)
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19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Malaysia Indonesia
Rest of World
in Major Countries (MnT) Palm Oil Production 1980 - 2016
Changes 2016:
Malaysia -2.6 Mn T(17.3 Mn T)
Indonesia -1.6 Mn T (31.8 Mn T)
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January 2014 until Dec 20161
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100 SBO Dutch
Sun oil EU
Rape oil Du tch
CPO cif R'dam
Monthly Prices of 4 Oils (in US-$/T)
2014 2015 2016
+46%
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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Palm Oil Soya OilSun Oil Rape Oil
Change on Year in Mn T
World Production of 4 Major Oils
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 06/07
07/08 08/09
09/10 10/11
11/1212/13
13/1414/15
15/16-4
-2
0
24
6
8
10
12Production
Change From Year Ago in Mn T8 Veg. OILS: World Production
Unusual setback of production in 2015/16 ……declines in palm oil & rapeseed oil could not be compensat ed
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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Palm Oil Soya OilSun Oil Rape Oil
Change on Year in Mn T
World Production of 4 Major Oils
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 06/07
07/08 08/09
09/10 10/11
11/1212/13
13/1414/15
15/1616/17
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12Production
Change From Year Ago in Mn T8 Veg. OILS: World Production
Steep increase in production in 2016/17…… but extremely low stocks decisively curb supply and deman d growth in 2016/17
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Outlook for 2016/17:
Very big increase in worldproduction by 10-11 Mn T in 2016/17
of which:Palm oil . . . +5.7 Mn (vs -3.9)Lauric oils +0.7 (vs -0.75)
Soya oil . . . +2.4 Mn (vs +2.6)Rapeseed oil - 0.8 (vs -1.4)Sunfl. oil . . +1.56Groundn. oil +0.5Cotton oil . +0.07
World supplies of oils & fats will remaintight in Oct/March 2016/17. Higher prices.
8 VEGETABLE OILS: World Supply & Usage ( Mn T )O c t / S e p t
16/17F Change 15/16 14/15 Op’g stocks 23.3* -5.4 28.7 26.7 Production 177.3* +10.5 166.8 170.4 Supplies 200.6* +5.1 195.5 197.1
Consumption 177.0* +4.0 173.0 167.6
8 VEGETABLE OILS: World Supply & Usage ( Mn T )O c t / S e p t
16/17F Change 15/16 14/15 Op’g stocks 23.3* -5.4 28.7 26.7 Production 177.3* +10.5 166.8 170.4 Supplies 200.6* +5.1 195.5 197.1
Consumption 177.0* +4.0 173.0 167.6
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Impacts from soybeans and other oilseeds
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Soybeans 62%
Rapeseed 11%
Sunseed 9%
Cottonseed 7%
Groundnuts 6%
Copra & Palmkernels 4%
Other 3 Oilseeds 2%
2016/17 -- 540.7 Mn T
Other ctries 14%
EU 6%
C.I.S. 7%
Canada & U.S.A. 28%
Brazil 20%
Argentina 11%
China 8%
India 7%
10 Oilseeds - - 540.7 Mn T
Global Production of 10 Oilseeds
10 years earlierIndia accounted for9% of world oilseedproduction and China for 13%
In 2016/17: Soybeans: World 333 Mn T (up 21 Mn)USA 117 Mn T (up 10 Mn)
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75/76 81/82 87/88 93/94 99/00 04/0 5 10/11 16/17F0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180Soybean Crop Trend Since 74/75 (Mn T)
U.S.A.
Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay
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Record yield and soybeanoutput in the USA in 2016
But global dependence on US soybeans and productsincreasing in 2016/17
In Sept/Feb 2016/17 US soybean exports soaring to46.3 Mn T (up 6 Mn T), thus73% of world exports
U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t
16/17F 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 Op. stocks . . . 5.35 5.19 2.50 3.83 4.61 Crop. . . . . . . . 117.21 106.86 106.88 91.39 82.79 Imports . . . . . .78* .66 .93 2.10 1.01
Exports . . . . . 57.80* 52.74 50.20 44.65 36.17 Crushings . . . 52.70* 51.33 51.16 47.38 45.97 Other use 3.32* 3.28 3.77 2.77 2.45
End. stocks . . 9.52* 5.35 5.19 2.50 3.83
Stocks/usage 8.4% 5.0% 4.9% 2.6% 4.5%
U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t
16/17F 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13 Op. stocks . . . 5.35 5.19 2.50 3.83 4.61 Crop. . . . . . . . 117.21 106.86 106.88 91.39 82.79 Imports . . . . . .78* .66 .93 2.10 1.01
Exports . . . . . 57.80* 52.74 50.20 44.65 36.17 Crushings . . . 52.70* 51.33 51.16 47.38 45.97 Other use 3.32* 3.28 3.77 2.77 2.45
End. stocks . . 9.52* 5.35 5.19 2.50 3.83
Stocks/usage 8.4% 5.0% 4.9% 2.6% 4.5%
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07/0 8
08/0 9
09/1 0
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
Argentina Brazil
Soybean Area - change on year (Mn ha)
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Flooding in South Santa Fe
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Daily futures from 30 Aug 2016 until 13 Jan 2017Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
940
960
980
1000
1020
1040
1060Jan 2017 position
50-day moving average
200-day moving average
CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)
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1 99 7 1 99 9 2 00 1 2 00 3 2 00 5 2 00 7 2 00 9 2 01 1 2 01 3 2 01 5 2 01 7F0
20
40
60
80
100S o yb e a ns : W or l d S to c ks a s o f e n d-A u gu s t (M n T)In the 2016/17 season
world soybean stocks areset to recover. Productionto exceed consumption, despite recent downwardrevisions in the USA andArgentina
Or will the losses in Argentina be greater?
A shortage in soybeansmay arise in 2017/18, ifthe excellent yields in theUS cannot be repeated.
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Rising dependence on soybeans (a meal seed) increases the oil share
Rapeseed and canola are benefitting
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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 00/01
01/02 02/03
03/04 04/05
05/06 06/07
07/08 08/09
09/1010/11
11/12 12/13
13/1414/15
15/1616/17F
80100120140160180200220240260280300
10 Oilseeds : World Crushings (Mn T)
9 other seeds
Soybeans
Further boost in worldsoybean crushings required in 2016/17, because1) rising demand2) still insufficient palmoil supplies3) tightness of oth seeds4) low stocks of veg oils
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Soya meal 66.5%
Rape meal 10.0%
Sun meal 5.4% Fish meal 1.3%
Others 16.8%
2016/17 - - 339.5 Mn T
Soya meal 50.7%
Rape meal 10.3%
Sun meal 7.1%
Fish meal 4.6%
Others 27.3%
1990/91 - - 137 Mn T
World Production of 12 Oilmeals
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Soya Oil 25,0%Palm Oil 29,9%
Rape Oil 11,5%
Sun Oil 8,3%
PKO&CNO 4,6%Others/An.Fats 20,8%
2016/17F - - 213.5 Mn T
Soya Oil 20,1%
Palm Oil 14,2%
Rape Oil 11,4%
Sun Oil 9,9%
PKO&CNO 5,2%
Others/An.Fats 39,3%
1991/92 - - 83.5 Mn T
World Production of 17 Oils & FatsUp 156% in 25 years
Average annualincreaseof 5.2 Mn T
Palm oilaccountfor 40% ofthe increase(+2.1 Mn p.a.)
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Monthly Averages until 12 Jan 2017Ja03 Ja04 Ja05 Ja06 Ja07 Ja08 Ja09 Ja10 Ja11 Ja12 Ja13 Ja14 Ja15 Ja16 Ja'17
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46Calculated with prices in N. Europe
Soya Oil Share of the Combined Product Value
%
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Impacts from biodiesel
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89/90 92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17F
020406080
100120140160180200220
biofuel food and other
Total Usage in Mn T
17 Oils & Fats : World Consumption
Average demandgrowth in past 5 seasons:
Total +6.4 Mn T per year
Biofuel +1.6 Mn T Food/other +4.8 Mn T
Substantial Growth in World Demand of Oils/Fats ! !
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In Mn T 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14
China +.32 +.36 +.58 +.78
India +.90 +1.27 +1.37 +.85
EU-28 -.17 +.37 +.04 +1.96
U.S.A. +.35 +1.18 +.38 +.48
Argentina +.15 +.30 -.25 +.63
Indonesia +.65 +1.70 -1.39 +1.13
Brazil +.39 -.10 +.58 +.37
Others +1.56 +1.26 +2.78 +2.81
World +4.49 +6.34 +4.09 +9.01
- Biodiesel fueled veg. oildemand in 2015/16
-USA, Argentina & Indonesia accounted for50% of demand growth
- slowdown in 2016/17 will be necessary!
17 Oils & Fats: Consumption Growth
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Policy Measures Boosting Use of Soya Oil & Palm Oil for Biodiesel Production in 2016
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 Malaysia
Thailand
IndonesiaEU-28
Palm Oil Use for Biodiesel (Mn T)
+1.7 Mn T
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9U.S.A.ArgentinaBrazil
Soya Oil Use for Biodiesel (Mn T)
+1.2 Mn T
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2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35World Production of Biodiesel (Mn T)
BIODIESEL: World Production by Country ( Mn T )J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r
2017F 2016 2015 2014 2013 EU-28 12.40* 12.35* 12.37 12.20* 10.65 U.S.A. 6.20* 5.85* 4.90 4.80 4.72 Argentina 2.55* 2.63* 1.81 2.58 2.00 Brazil 3.80* 3.36* 3.46 3.00 2.56 Colombia .49* .45* .51 .52 .50 Singapore .88* .86* .82 .76 .79 Indonesia 3.20* 3.00* 1.16 2.92 2.60 Malaysia .60* .50* .67 .60 .47 Thailand. 1.10* .98* 1.03 .99 .93 Oth. ctries. 3.00* 2.94* 2.89 2.94* 2.65*Total 34.22* 32.92* 29.62 31.30 27.87
Change in +1.30* +3.30* -1.68 +3.43 +3.29
BIODIESEL: World Production by Country ( Mn T )J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r
2017F 2016 2015 2014 2013 EU-28 12.40* 12.35* 12.37 12.20* 10.65 U.S.A. 6.20* 5.85* 4.90 4.80 4.72 Argentina 2.55* 2.63* 1.81 2.58 2.00 Brazil 3.80* 3.36* 3.46 3.00 2.56 Colombia .49* .45* .51 .52 .50 Singapore .88* .86* .82 .76 .79 Indonesia 3.20* 3.00* 1.16 2.92 2.60 Malaysia .60* .50* .67 .60 .47 Thailand. 1.10* .98* 1.03 .99 .93 Oth. ctries. 3.00* 2.94* 2.89 2.94* 2.65*Total 34.22* 32.92* 29.62 31.30 27.87
Change in +1.30* +3.30* -1.68 +3.43 +3.29
Possible Changes in the EU Biodiesel Policy from 2020 on ward ! ?
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Concluding Statements
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At the end of the season2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
17 oils & fats
10 oilseeds
World Stocks in Percent of Annual Usage (%)Oils & fats stocksdeclining relative toannual consumption
A second year (2017/18) without severe weatherproblems is required tobring oils & fats stocks tomore comfortable levels
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I expect a further rallyin Jan/March 2017, with crude palm oil in Rotterdam probablypeaking at around US $ 830
This will indirectlysupport canola pricesin Canada
Weekly p rices f rom 1 Jan 2015 until 12 Jan 2017Ja15 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja16 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja'17
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850Palm stearin RBD, Mal,cif Rott
Palm oil c rude, c if N.W . Eur
Weekly Prices of Palm Stearin & Oil (US-$/T)
Thomas Mielke, OIL WORLD, Hamburg 2017 AgDays in Brandon on 17 Jan 2017
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There should be good selling opportunities of canola in the next 4 – 8 weeks
Farmers should regards prices of 500 – 520 Can-$ sufficiently attractive to increase both old-and new-crop selling
There is an increased possibility of considerable price pressure in vegetable oils from May or June 2017 onward
The bearish price trend is likely to accelerate in 2018, unless major weather-caused crop losses occur
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An Emerging Trade Conflict with China ?
How Likely? Possible Effects on the Global Market?
Thomas Mielke, OIL WORLD, Hamburg 2017 AgDays in Brandon on 17 Jan 2017
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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r94/95
95/9696/97
97/9898/99
99/00 00/01
01/02 02/03
03/04 04/05
05/06 06/07
07/08 08/09
09/1010/11
11/1212/13
13/1414/15
15/1616/17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100China
Rest of world
Imports of Soybeans (Mn T)In Jan/Dec 2016 China imported:
83.7 Mn T of soybeans
3.8 Mn T of rapeseed
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Soybean Trade Flows in 2015USA (37%)
Paraguay & Uruguay (6%)
Brazil (42%)
Argentina (9%)
EU-28 (11%)
China (62%)
Mexico (3%)
Exports Imports
Ukraine (2%)
Other Asia(17%)
Thomas Mielke, OIL WORLD, Hamburg 2017 AgDays in Brandon on 17 Jan 2017
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98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17F20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120Production (Mn T)Crushings (Mn T)
CHINA: Oilseed Output & Crushings
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