global technology outlook

© 2004 IBM CorporationGlobal Technology Outlook - 2004

Global Technology Outlook

By IBM Corp.


Global Technology Outlook ………..

“I think there is a world marketfor maybe five computers.”

Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons. ”

Popular Mechanics, 1949

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. ” Ken Olsen, founder of DEC, 1977

“640K ought to be enough for anybody. ”

Bill Gates, 1981

“Prediction is difficult, especially about the future”

Yogi Berra


Business process and technology integration

Systems architecture and design

Enterprise IT Optimization: through autonomic computing, orchestration, virtualization and shared services model

Emerging Technology focus areas

Global Technology Outlook - 2004© 2004 IBM Corporation

ProcessesProcessesInformationInformation

Data FederationInformation Integration

Business ProcessAutomation

Communication andCollaborationPeoplePeople

Por

tal &

Kno

wle

dge

Man

agem

ent

Workflow

Messaging Infrastructure

The Evolution of Technology Will Lead to the Convergence of People, Information and Processes


Methods, Models, Tools, Templates and Architecture

Tools Architecture

Methods Templates

Models

linked models of business & IT semantics support methodologies and business-IT alignment

repeatable, scalable, consistent methods

to guide stakeholders through

transformation steps and decisions

templates of solution models support reuse

tools support methodologies

through design and analysis of

transformation models and related artifacts

model-driven components for adaptive process choreography, monitoring & management in a service-oriented architecture


Business & IT Convergence

Componentization of businesses into

services

Service Oriented Architecture

Software modeling

Modeling of businesses

PlatformIndependent

Process

PlatformSpecific

StrategyManageManage MonitorMonitor

Business applications will be deployed, monitored and managed through the manipulation of multi-level models

IT Domain

BusinessDomain

DeployDeploy

Accurately and reliably capture and translate business intent into IT solutions (Business / IT fusion)

Rapid deployment of

enterprise apps and resources

Real-time visibility of business

Flexibly transform business

Link

Realize

Transform

KPI’s

Sense

Measure


Web Services Accelerates the Move Towards Service-Oriented Architectures

Shar

ed S

ervi

ces

Loosely Coupled

Standards Based

Allows individual software assets to become reusable building blocks

Reduces interdependency between services components

Leverages open standards to represent software assets as services

• XML• SOAP• WSDL• UDDI


Industry Implications

Models will become valuable, reusable, competitive assets that Accelerate the deployment of new applications Increase the visibility of enterprise performance Improve the manageability of business operations Increase ROI for the customer

Business componentization will contribute to the growth of the BT and BTO businesses and the emergence of independent process vendors (IPVs)

Business transformation will become more structured and rigorous, shifting from the realm of art to the realm of science

This will require significant cultural change as jobs are redefined, created and eliminated

Business transformation professionals will have to expand their skill sets


1995 2000 2005 2010 20151

10

100

1000

10000

100000

TeraFlops

Supercomputing Roadmap

Source: ASCI Roadmap www.llnl.gov/asci, IBM

Brain ops/sec: Kurzweil 1999, The Age of Spiritual Machines

Moravec 1998, www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm

US Dept. Of Energy ASCI

®*

Chip(2 processors)

Compute Card(2 chips, 2x1x1)

Node Board(32 chips, 4x4x2)

16 Compute Cards

System(64 cabinets, 64x32x32)

Cabinet(32 Node boards, 8x8x16)

2.8/5.6 GF/s4 MB

5.6/11.2 GF/s0.5 GB DDR

90/180 GF/s8 GB DDR

2.9/5.7 TF/s256 GB DDR

180/360 TF/s16 TB DDR

Comparative Brain Computing Power

Computing Power


Power is Limiting Microprocessor Frequencies

Moore’s law is continuing with respect to transistor density, although at a reduced pace

Workload demands are highly variable High Speed Interconnects Compound the Power Problem Device Leakage Consumes Power New methods to utilize silicon density scaling will be developed to accommodate

diverse workloads while managing power constraints

Server microprocessors cannot simultaneously utilize all their transistors due to power limitations

Shippable PartsWith Leakage

Minimum Ship Frequency

Leff SlowFast

Nominal

Po

wer

Cooling/Power Limit

Max Freq(No Leakage)

Max Freq(With Leakage)

Power w/Leakage

Nu

mb

er o

f P

arts


Source: Competitive Analysis Technical Team (CATT)

IBM PowerPC (2002 Roadmap)10000

Initial Ship Date

Fre

qu

ency

(M

Hz)

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

100

1000

100000

?10000

Microprocessor operating frequencies will increase at half the historical rate

Power dissipation is limiting performance

Future differentiation based on function, not frequency

CMOS Microprocessor Frequency Growth CMOS device performance will continue to improve rapidly, but in new ways

The concept of a scaled technology as we know it will cease to existInnovation will continue to drive performance improvements, but timing will be

harder to predict

High mobilityNew device structuresNew materials innovations


Better Performance Without Scaling


Industry Implications

Systems performance leadership will be enabled by judiciously balancing performance and power consumption, rather than maintaining historical frequency trends

Innovation in device structures and materials, not scaling, will be the primary driver of semiconductor performance improvements

Integration and optimization over the entire systems stack will be critical to maintaining traditional server performance trends

Power dissipation is limiting microprocessor performance, requiring aggressive power-management techniques and new thermal solutions


Next generation of computing

Accelerating advances in technology Deeper integration of IT with business systems Emergence of industry ecosystems

Simplify infrastructure

Sense and respond to business changes

Protect privacy Deliver unique value to customers

Help ensure continuity

Improve cost structure


Challenges in the IT WorldManage complex, heterogeneous environments

Increase resource utilization

Reduce IT costs

Execute operational changes rapidly & flexibly

Manage increasing amounts of risk


Increase Responsiveness

Adapt to dynamically changing environments

Business Resiliency

Discover, diagnose, and act to prevent disruptions

Operational Efficiency

Tune resources and balance workloads to maximize use of IT resources

Secure Information and Resources

Anticipate, detect, identify, and protect against attacks

Autonomic ComputingComputing model in which the system is self-healing, self-configured, self-protected and self-managed

“Intelligent” open systems that…

Manage complexity

“Know” themselves

Continuously tune themselves

Adapt to unpredictable conditions

Prevent and recover from failures

Provide a safe environment


Automation Capabilities

Service Levels

Serv

ice

Leve

ls

PolicyDriven

Service Levels

Automate optimization of IT resources with business needs

Automate achievement of service level by transaction

Automate for efficient and secure administration of user identities

Achievement of service levels Address transactional performance with an

end-to-end view

Predictive correlated intrusion management

Central identity and access management

Protection against threats

Proactive optimization of resources

Reduce costs Open warehouse


Benefits

Business policy drives IT

management

Business agility and resiliency

Benefits

Balanced human/system

interaction

IT agility and resiliency

Benefits

Greater system awareness

Improved productivity

Benefits

Reduced dependency on

deep skills

Faster/better decision making

Evolving to Autonomic Computing

BasicLevel 1

Rely on reports, product and

manual actions to manage IT components

ManagedLevel 2

Management software in place

to provide facilitation and

automation of IT tasks

PredictiveLevel 3

Individual components and

systems management tools

able to analyze changes and recommend

actions

AdaptiveLevel 4

IT components collectively able

to monitor, analyze and take

action with minimal human

intervention

AutonomicLevel 5

IT components collectively and automatically managed by

business rules and policies

Manual Autonomic


What the Press is Saying

"Autonomic computing: As we head into 2003, perhaps no other phrase is buzzing

as hotly as this one."

"Call it what you will -- self-healing, autonomic or utility computing -- automation will be all the talk...This will be the year that long-term

plans take shape."

"Transactions are where the rubber meets the road. There's undoubtedly real value to be

found at the intersection of grid computing, Web services, and autonomic computing."


Simplify&

Optimize

Enable

VirtualizedServices

On DemandOperating Environment

Optimize utilization of computing assets using consolidation, traditional resource virtualization and workload management – improve resilience

Transform business designs and processes, and integrate them across the enterprise and beyond – migrate to an open programming model

Increased flexibility, responsiveness; transition from fixed to variable cost baseMigrate to an open service architecture

System and Application Respond to any change, repel

threats, never “offline” Optimize total cost of ownership

The Path to a Virtual Operating Environment


What is Virtualization? Pools of virtual resources

StorageServers Distributed Network

Partitioning− Dynamic LPARS− Virtual machines− BladesClustering− Parallel Sysplex®− HACMP− Linux clustersWorkload Management− Policy-based− Heterogeneous

SAN volumes− Storage Pools− Centralized managementTotalStorage Virtualization− SAN Block Virtualization− SAN File AggregationTotalStorage Virtualization expanded capabilities− Increase capacity utilization− Manage non-IBM storage

VLANs− Isolate/prioritize traffic on

shared network, 802.1HiperSockets™/ Virtual ethernet− Optimized inter-partition

communications, virtual network

Differentiated services− Prioritize network traffic− Network QOS, IP TOSVendor alliances

GRID− Globus Toolkit− IBM OGSA ToolboxServer allocation for Web application servers− Computation heavy,

parallel applications− Manage multiple

applications across multiple server clusters

ISV Grid middleware− Provide services such as

data services, scheduling

Resource virtualization provides the ability to aggregate pools of resources into a logical view that enables and delivers increased utilization of resources, simplified management and improved availability of those resources and extends access to and the application of resources. These resources can be servers, storage, networks, applications, and distributed systems.


The next level of Virtualization

Virtualization based on Grid Computing capabilities incorporating Policy-Based Dynamic Provisioning

Expand the Virtualization concept to handle De-Centralized, Distributed and Heterogeneous Resources over a network

Enabled by Open Standards

ExpressDe-Centralized I/T Resources

(I/T infrastructure and

applications) as

OGSA Services

Service = Virtual Resource


The details behind the interface can change butthe consumer is not impacted from an invocation point of view

The details behind the interface can change butthe consumer is not impacted from an invocation point of view

Virtualization through services model

Order a book.Order a book.

Mechanisms that abstract the functional capability of a servicefrom its real implementation.

Mechanisms that abstract the functional capability of a servicefrom its real implementation.

Consumer is not aware of the details of process and value chain

Consumer is not aware of the details of process and value chain

Provider is able to change at will.Provider is able to change at will.

Consumer is not aware of servers or other resources

Consumer is not aware of servers or other resources

Provider is able to change at will.Provider is able to change at will.

Business ViewBusiness View

Infrastructure ViewInfrastructure View

© 2004 IBM Corporation

Orchestrated ProvisioningSenses WHY and anticipates WHEN

capacity will be required.

Business priorities determine WHERE to acquire and provision resources.

Orchestrated Provisioning

CapacityEngine

Service LevelEngine

DeploymentEngine

Allocation, change and configuration of:

–Middleware, Management Software, Applications, Data, Identities, Security

–Storage, VLANs, VPNs, Switches

–Firewalls, Load Balancers

–OS, CPU Clusters, FirmwareAsset management interface

Key Capabilities

Increase resource utilization

Reduce labor, hardware and software capital costs

Dynamic resource deployment

Heighten service delivery levels

Align business priorities and IT resources

© 2004 IBM Corporation

The Capabilities You’ll Need

Business Flexibility

IT Simplification

Automation/Virtualization • Availability• Security• Optimization• Provisioning• Policy-based Orchestration• Business Service Management• Resource Virtualization of Servers,

Storage, Distributed Systems/Grid and the Network

• Business Modeling • Process Transformation• Application & Information Integration• Access• Collaboration• Business Process Management

Integration

Infrastructure Management

Partners Partners Partners

HorizontalProcess


Traditional The Internet On Demand

StructuredCalculations

Data ProcessingTransactions

Open StandardsConnectivity

FlexibilitySimplicity

Modular Componentseasily defined and manipulated

Dynamic definition and operations

Final ThoughtsDeepening Integration of IT with Business….. Emerging On Demand Computing Model