global trends affecting the water cycle winds of

GLOBAL TRENDS AFFECTING THE WATER CYCLE

Winds of change in the world of water

Techneau, September 2007

© 2007 TECHNEAU TECHNEAU is an Integrated Project Funded by the European Commission under the Sixth Framework Programme, Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems Thematic Priority Area (contractnumber 018320). All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a database or retrieval system, or published, in any form or in any way, electronically, mechanically, by print, photoprint, microfilm or any other means without prior written permission from the publisher

Techneau, September 2007

GLOBAL TRENDS AFFECTING THE WATER CYCLE


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Title GLOBAL TRENDS AFFECTING THE WATER CYCLE Winds of change in the world of water Author(s) Andrew Segrave (Kiwa Water Research), Wouter Pronk (EAWAG), Toine Ramaker (Kiwa Water Research), Steffen Zuleeg (EAWAG) Quality Assurance Rivka Kfir (WRC, South Africa) Jacques Leenen (Stowa, Nl) Robert C. Renner (AwwaRF, USA) Frans Schulting (GWRC) Theo van den Hoven (Kiwa Water Research) Ross Young (WSSA, Australia) TECHNEAU ‘Rethink the System’ Team Alegre, H. (LNEC), Chenoweth, J. (Surrey University), Fife-Schaw, C. (Surrey University), Hochstrat, R. (RWTH Aachen), Juhna, T. (Riga Technical University), Kelay, T. (Surrey University), Lindhe, A. (Chalmers University), Offringa, G. (Water Research Commission), Petterson, T. (Chalmers University), Pronk, W. (EAWAG), Ramaker, T. (Kiwa Water Research), Rosén, L. (Chalmers University), Segrave, A.J. (Kiwa Water Research), Swartz, C.D. (Swartz Water Utilisation Engineers), van Ellen, W. (Aguaflow), Zuleeg, S. (EAWAG), Zwolsman, G. (Kiwa Water Research) TECHNEAU Deliverable number D.1.1.7 TECHNEAU TECHNEAU is an Integrated Project funded by the European Commission under the Sixth Framework Programme, Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems Thematic Priority Area (contract number 018320). The research program focuses on creating technical tools, both tangible and conceptual, to help the water sector prepare for the opportunities and threats of the future (www.techneau.eu ). This report is: PU = Public

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TECHNEAU GLOBAL TRENDS © TECHNEAU2007 - 5 - 03-10-2007

Executive Summary

Introduction: Why this report? TECHNEAU is a European research program that focuses on creating technical tools, both tangible and conceptual, to help the water sector prepare for the opportunities and threats of the future. The scope ranges from source to tap. Designing appropriate tools requires a vision for the future and an understanding of the potential opportunities and threats. Researchers from around the globe have examined and defined region specific trends. This synopsis brings together the findings common to their separate studies. The intention is to provide a quick-read handbook for ten global trends that are likely to shape the water sector over the next 20 years. Above all, this study provides resources for enabling players in the water sector to plan adaptive strategies. It will serve as input for the research agendas of both TECHNEAU and the Global Water Research Coalition (GWRC). Context: World population and water stress. The world population is currently growing at a rate of 1,167% (about 80 million extra people per year for the next 10 years). Half of the world’s populace currently lack access to safe drinking water, while two thirds live without adequate sanitation. This percentage is sure to grow if we don’t instigate immense interventions immediately. Drinking water suppliers must increasingly compete for resources with agriculture (e.g. food), industry (e.g. mining), and ecological systems. This dynamic is not in balance. The ten main trends must be viewed in this global context. Importance: These trends will affect you! All of the trends examined here are expected to have widespread, significant effects on the world of water. Specific opportunities and threats are region specific, but an understanding of the trends and their driving forces is universally valuable: Think global, act local.


D = Drinking Water U = Urban Drainage W = Wastewater Treatment R = Re-Use

Results: Seaplanes at Amsterdam Airport, cloud seeding in South Africa Each of the trends handled in this synopsis is like a major supporting thread being woven in the carpet of circumstances that will define the water sector in the future. Even so, a diverse range of factors ultimately determine the local conditions of the future. The following ten trends are expected to affect the water sector worldwide:

Ten Major Trends

Climate Change DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR

Urbanisation DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR

Emerging Technologies DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR

Ageing infrastructure DU DU DU DU DU DU

Globalisation DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR

Consumer involvement DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR

Emerging pollutants DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR

Energy use and costs DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR

The efficiency driven water sector DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR

More bottled water D D D D D D Figure 1: The Ten Major Trends were ranked by the authors based on personal opinion. You are invited to rank these trends for your region and submit your opinion to [email protected]. A greyscale version of this table is included in Appendix 1 for printing. Results: Tools for acting locally Now that these common trends have been identified it is up to individual players in the water sector to determine what the impacts mean for them: Business as usual: no specific interventions are needed Evolution: gradual adjustment required (threats and opportunities) Revolution: alternatives are immediately necessary After the potential of a trend to cause change has been assessed then adaptive strategies can be designed. Interventions can be made for different purposes: Mitigation: counteract the trend by lessening its driving forces Adaptation: change to fit new circumstances Resistance: protect conventional practices and technologies

Most impact Least impact

North America South America Asia Europe Africa Australia/Oceania Antarctica

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Climate change can be used to exemplify this method of classification. This trend is likely to exacerbate droughts in arid regions like the Mediterranean area and Australia. There is little room for resistance, so revolutionary interventions may be necessary. Adaptive measures could involve alternative crop choice for agriculture and improved efficiency for industry and household use. Reduction in CO2 emissions and reforestation can be classified as mitigation. Results: We want to understand the risks Researchers in most countries signalled the rise of a more risk oriented society, which is also a common thread that connects the ten major trends. Risk assessment, communication, and prioritisation of response efforts are likely to play an increasingly important role in the future. The development of risk assessment and management schemes, like the IWA Bonn Charter and the World Health Organisation’s Water Safety Plans, signifies recognition of this within the water sector. Key reasons for the water sector’s risk based view of the future include: − Diversified palette (e.g. nano-materials, hormones, cosmetics) − Improved lab analysis techniques (lower detection limits) − Increased competition for water sources (e.g. ecological systems, agriculture) − Greater expectations from consumers and a more informed community The ten global trends also share a risk focus. Risks are both internal and external to the water sector. External risks include terrorism as well as more slowly emerging threats like pollutants and climate change. Climate Change, for example, is expected to worsen droughts, strengthen flooding rivers, overflow urban drainage systems, boost salt water intrusion and sea level rise, and alter quality conditions by increasing temperatures in pipelines. Urbanisation, on the other hand, is likely to augment water demand issues with stress in urbanised areas and rural overcapacity. Internal risks, such as treatment facility and distribution network failures, are also increasingly prevalent. ‘Ageing infrastructure’ and ‘Emerging pollutants’ are key trends here. Public awareness and education is key in determining ‘tolerable’ risk levels. For example, public acceptance of pesticides or medical pollutants is very low, no matter the actual risk level from a scientific perspective. Results: debate about water rights Conflicts over drinking water are another major risk to water supplies in many parts of the world. In 2000, for example, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan cut off the water to Kazakhstan as a result of non-payment of debt and because coal had not been delivered. Water stress in interregional river basins and areas with limited resources, such as in the sub-Saharan area, Israel and western USA, is likely to worsen in the future and aggravate conflicts. The Murray-Darling Basin, Australia’s most significant agricultural area, is also stricken by drought and inter-state tensions are rising.


Preface ‘Winds of change in the world of water’ is a synopsis report on ten global trends that will affect the use of water worldwide over the next twenty years. The EU project TECHNEAU aims to create tools, methods, and technologies to overcome impending challenges and take advantage of possible opportunities for the water sector worldwide. The core objective is to ensure the supply of safe drinking water into the future. In Work Area ‘Rethink the system’ of TECHNEAU trends and their driving forces were identified. These trends were comprehensively described and analysed by each of the TECHNEAU partners for their individual countries or regions. Potential challenges, opportunities, and necessities were then defined. Specific concrete impacts and implications should thus be sought in the reports on that research. This report highlights the common threads in the country or region specific findings. The aim of this synopsis is to provide an easy access guide to ten global trends that are expected to affect the water cycle over the next 20 years. Although initially focused on water supply, the study covers sanitation, urban drainage, and waste water treatment aspects as well. Input and advice was provided based on discussions in Global Water Research Coalition meetings. Trends were selected using the following criteria, with emphasis on the first: − Maximum potential to influence the water sector within 20 years (2026) − High degree of uncertainty making planning difficult and insights valuable The temporal scale is defined as 20 years into the future (2026). This scope was selected to maximise accuracy while allowing for the estimated time required for implementation of any adaptive strategies that are developed. The world population is currently growing at a rate of 1,167% (about 80 million extra people per year for the next 10 years). Half of the world’s populace currently lack access to safe drinking water, while two thirds live without adequate sanitation. This percentage is sure to grow if we don’t instigate immense interventions immediately. Drinking water suppliers must increasingly compete for resources with agriculture (e.g. food), industry (e.g. mining), and ecological systems. This dynamic is not in balance. The ten main trends must be viewed in this global context.


Contents

Winds of change in the world of water 10

Climate Change 11

Urbanisation 14

Globalisation 16

Emerging pollutants 19

Energy Use and Costs 22

Ageing infrastructure 25

Community involvement & consumer intelligence 27

Emerging Technologies 30

More bottled water 35

The efficiency driven water sector 37

Conclusions 40



“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” William Arthur Ward (1921 – 1994). In paving the way to a sustainable future, securing a reliable supply of safe water is a vital cornerstone. But everything changes continuously - constantly creating new chances and threats. The supply systems in many countries may need to undergo considerable changes in the (near) future to ensure their continuation. Adaptive strategies (preparedness) can play an important role in efficiently solving impending problems and exploiting emerging opportunities optimally. Reliable adaptive strategies are based on sound analysis of current trends and expert forecasts. Research has been completed to this end for the water sector in countries involved in TECHNEAU. Partners in these countries characterised their region by researching social, economic, political, technical, ecological, and demographic aspects. Horizon scanning and trend analysis was then completed to make foresights. This is a synopsis of the results. The information presented in this report is key to supporting the water sector in preparing for the future. The next step is to develop adaptive strategies for potential challenges and opportunities. In a later phase, these adaptive strategies will be tested in concrete practical cases as a means of verification. The results will then be used to fine-tune the strategies. An overview of ten global trends that are likely to shape the water sector over the next 20 years follows.



Climate Change

DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR DUWR

Some countries currently enjoy ample fresh water resources (e.g. Scandinavia, Baltic region), whereas others suffer periodic or chronic shortages (e.g. Mediterranean area, Australia, and parts of the USA). Water availability is essentially dependant on geographical location and climate, while the global climate is changing rapidly. This change has been amplified and accelerated by anthropogenically increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from, for example, combustion and deforestation. Positive feedback-loops, such as albedo decline and methane release, further augment these driving forces. Climate change is expected to cause amplification of extreme hydrological circumstances: prolonged, hotter dry periods and intensification of precipitation and flood events. These extreme events are also likely to recur more frequently. The Western Cape province in South Africa recently experienced such effects as major floods occurred after a period of severe drought.

Besides altered fresh water conditions, sea level rise is also expected to continue. All of these changes will have considerable consequences for both the quantity and the quality of the raw water resources, as well as for demand patterns. Strongly varying flood conditions will also significantly influence the design and operation of urban drainage systems. The operation of wastewater treatment systems, along with the quality of the receiving waters,

will also be affected. Increased infiltration and more frequent sewer overflows due to more regular storm events must be considered in the design of wastewater systems. Flooding of (un)treated wastewater and sewerage systems can also affect the biotic



life cycle, causing “higher possibility of out-breaks of water borne diseases (such as cryptosporidium presence).”1

The likelihood of toxic cyanobacterial blooms occurring in source water can be heightened by warmer temperatures. Besides which, warm water is generally seen as less inviting for consumption. Water temperature problems in, for example, Australia’s aboveground pipelines will increase with rising temperatures. Altered precipitation patterns and increased evapotranspiration are examples of factors that will have a direct impact on water resources. On the other hand, modified risk of Legionella outbreak due to warmer average temperatures in pipelines and water installations could be considered an indirect effect. During dry periods, when discharge decreases, residence times in some sources increase and oxygen levels decrease. This means that some compounds (e.g. sewerage matter) can take longer to break down and concentrations can increase. Such effects could be especially significant for southern European countries like Portugal and Spain, where surface water is the primary resource and warmer, drier conditions are expected. Besides this, basic quantity shortages will also become worse in semi-arid and arid regions like Africa and Australia. Conversely, systems are flushed clean by events of peak discharge. This exemplifies the dependence of raw water quality on quantity dynamics. As mountain glaciers melt (The Kilimanjaro Glacier is one tragic example), and the proportion of precipitation that falls as snow decreases, discharge patterns of rivers will also be drastically altered. Floods and landslides may result, which is an important issue for alpine countries like Switzerland, and thus downstream countries.

The climate is definitely changing, but predicting the degree of change over a specific time for a particular location is obviously complex. Future conditions have been forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and progressively translated into more localised circumstances. The Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI), for instance, has developed four future climate scenarios. The massive inertia and complexity of the global climate system has hindered the 1 EU Integrated Project. Global Change and Ecosystems. Milestone: “Inventory of Important Global Change Pressures on Urban Water Systems in the City of the Future” SWITCH 2006.


definition of explicit, concrete effects to date. Lag time between, for example, CO2 emission and temperature rise increases the risks by delaying the consequences of any intervention: our short-term future is already determined to some extent. Increasing demand worldwide and the substantial costs (time and money) of implementing adaptive measures will exacerbate effects. Poor communities in arid areas are thus especially vulnerable. The impacts of climate change obviously depend on the baseline condition of the water supply system (capital) and the ability to adapt (resilience). Inaction will amplify these impacts.

Interventions for adapting include efficiency incentives (at the tap) and integrated, cross-sectoral water resource management (at the source). As emission standards become stricter, for instance, waste water may become a more viable source of drinking water. There are also various opportunities for cooperation with the energy sector in this regard. Technological improvements to water supply infrastructure can play a key role in improving efficiency and accounting for variance (e.g. peak shaving). Even so, if we hedge our bets on technical quick fixes, rather than holistic policy based solutions, the problem will remain. Climate change has many indirect effects. In hot countries such as Australia, for example, the scorching summers are forcing more and more people to install air conditioners. Where there is low humidity, evaporative air conditioners are often installed and they can increase water consumption. This illustrates the need for a holistic problem solving approach. Water supply companies are significant stakeholders when it comes to climate change, and should demand action from their governments. Various mitigation interventions, such as conversion to local, renewable energy sources, are also available to water supply companies. Location specific research to determine future quality and quantity threats and opportunities is vital. As regards governmental policies, agriculture, industry, and urban planning strategies are likely to be instrumental. Sustainable development based on full life-cycle analysis is key.



Urbanisation


The populations of mega-cities such as Delhi and Mexico-city are exploding, while nearly every city worldwide is growing. Rural areas, on the other hand, are being progressively abandoned. This trend is generally caused by the concentration of economic activities in and around cities. Declining activity in rural areas (e.g. agriculture in Central Europe) augments this driving force. In some countries (e.g. sub-Saharan Africa) overall population growth is also a factor, but this is not a universal cause of urbanisation. In most Western and Central European countries, for example, the autochthonic population is decreasing. Nonetheless, global urbanisation must be seen in the context of vigorous growth of the world’s population. Immigration currently determines the dynamics (net growth or decline) of many West European populations. Immigrants also tend to be drawn to big cities for work. This occurs both within and between countries. Government policy is a key driver in this regard.

Internal demographic changes, like the retirement of the baby boomers, also influence urbanisation. Life expectancy in most industrialised countries is increasing, which further augments the elderly population over the short and medium term. When elderly partners lose their spouses, young people delay or reject marriage, and divorce rates grow then the number of single person households increases. In Australia, for example, the fastest growing household sector is single person households. These households have higher per capita water consumption as economies of scale are lost.



On the whole, urbanisation and population growth will cause severe water stress worldwide. In the struggle to meet demand we will be forced to resort to more expensive (e.g. distant, dirty) sources. The social, economic, political, technological and ecological effects for the majority of the world’s population will be severe and extensive. The challenge is to design holistic, sustainable solutions and fitting technologies to cope with this major threat. Of the countries surveyed, projected population growth is most pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa. The total population in 2025 is expected to be double that of 1995. What's more, 300 percent population growth is probable for urban areas over the same period. Most people living in these urban areas lack access to safe drinking water. Efforts to meet the Millennium Development Goals will be seriously challenged by further urbanisation.

Urbanisation directly affects the entire water chain. Water distribution systems are already being affected. Depopulation of rural areas in various Eastern European countries, for example, has dramatically decreased demand. This has lead to serious overcapacity, which in turn affects the supply systems for these regions. One common consequence is increased biofilm formation. Similar effects of overcapacity and low flows might occur in sewerage systems, leading to risks for public health and less efficient wastewater treatment. Overdue renovations augment the problem and diminishing economic income from reduced water sales limits finances for proper maintenance. Ironically, reduced per capita consumption, i.e. increased efficiency, worsens overcapacity problems. Ageing populations are also more susceptible to diseases and require better water quality. All of these circumstances could lead to health issues, all stemming from urbanisation.



Globalisation


Globalisation is a well-known term and trend that has diverse connotations and ramifications in different contexts. The various types and degrees of possible impacts are echoed in a wide range of definitions and discussion points. The common trait is increasing interaction, interdependence, integration, and similarity of individuals and groups at disparate locations. The European Union, WTO, and OPEC are classic organisational upshots. Some argue that economic success achieved through globalisation will serve to enhance all aspects of life, while others believe that globalisation involves the exploitation of ‘everything else’ for selfish economic ends. Globalisation is well established, but there is much uncertainty associated with this trend; both in the path it will take and the eventual impacts. Ideological conflicts and increased income disparity could, for instance, amplify the trend towards more international terrorism. The ‘think big, act local’ rule of thumb often applies. International standards (e.g. WHO, EU, EPA) will become a leading influence in regional practices. The recent debate about limits for drinking water hardness subsequent to desalination and softening exemplifies this development. The effects will be location dependant e.g. international regulations may be above or below the various national norms and thus demand different interventions.

Easy and cheap transport and communications technologies create an environment conducive to globalisation. The world is “smaller” than ever before. Economic incentives, like cheap labour and new markets, are key motives for taking advantage of this effectively shrunken time and space. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions



have become an increasingly important means of entering foreign markets since the mid-1980s2. The international activities of big multi-utilities exemplify this for the water sector. Nonetheless, many factors could counteract further globalisation: − Socio-cultural or religious based clashes

and irresolvable differences − Conflicts around shared and limited

resources (e.g. water shortages in Africa) − Political trade barriers (e.g. EU against

Chinese shoes and Russia against meat, vegetables and fruit from the EU.) and protectionism (e.g. Agricultural protectionism and bilateral agreements between the US and Australia disadvantages developing countries)

− Unsafe cyberspace and ICT issues − Depletion of energy and resources (e.g.

transport costs rise) Globalisation is also driven by public demand. If the majority retaliate against the rich corporate world by boycotting multinationals in favour of local companies, for example, then further globalisation will be limited. This is the aim of the Peoples' Global Action (PGA). All the same, globalisation is a well developed trend that is expected to continue.

Emerging markets can bring both opportunities and threats. The Dutch Government’s response to the Katrina disaster in New Orleans demonstrates recognition of an opportunity: A delegation of professionals visited the US to promote their expertise. The issue of (partial) privatisation of utilities will almost certainly be revisited, recognising the fact that international investment can be double sided. For example, Bucharest’s water supply company is controlled by a multinational. This private municipal project has successfully built capacity in local staff by introducing international management practices and developing operational expertise. Applying the principals of full cost recovery has, however, pushed drinking water prices up from 0.16 EUR/m³ to 0.25 EUR/m³ since the acquisition (2001-2004). The tendency of “the rich getting richer” can bee seen as a risk, as multinational giants often snatch up the best opportunities. Expansion of technological innovation and improvements in productivity can also result, however, as these giants bring much business experience and financial influx. Coca Cola, General Electric, and

2 International Labour Organisation, 2006, http://www.itcilo.it/


Siemens, for example, will become more active in the water sector. In light of this, care must be taken to prevent cultural assimilation and export of artificial wants while encouraging investment and collaboration. To this end, on the 20th of October 2005, the Unesco General Conference adopted the Convention on the Protection and Promotion of the Diversity of Cultural Expressions (CCD). In Africa, for instance, many people view water as a basic human right that should be supplied free of charge. Globalisation could transform how people view water as a resource.

Globalisation makes worldwide recognition of intellectual property (e.g. copyright laws and patents) increasingly important. Companies should be aware of chances to profit from patents internationally, as well as the risks associated with unpatented or regionally patented intellectual property. More outsourcing and off-shoring is expected, as well as additional in-house employment of foreigners. Considering the sheer size of the Asian markets, sustainable management practices will be essential to their success. Countless opportunities to share and sell knowledge regarding water management and potable water production exist. Further globalisation will spur more international research, such as that coordinated by the Global Water Research Coalition (GWRC). As regards the Millennium Development Goals, access to safe drinking water and proper sanitation is a basic human right and we have a responsibility to share knowledge and tools to the deprived. Ever more companies from the water sector are involved in such projects. Investors would be wise to look at regions that are hydrogeologically similar, or face similar problems, especially in dealing with emerging issues, like climate change. More efficient problem solving and less repetition of work could result.



Emerging pollutants


Recycling water is increasingly common, which makes understanding emerging pollutants more important than ever - particularly when recycled water is used to supplement drinking water supplies. Improvements in waste water treatment over recent decades have had an obvious influence on surface water quality. Most improvements have been in eutrophication and macro-pollutants such as BOD, nitrate and phosphate. The focus has also shifted to include prevention and control at the source. Urine separation at pilot areas in Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Japan is a typical example. In the meantime, however, the amount of chemicals used in industry, agriculture and households has increased tremendously. Chemicals introduced to the market after 1981 (more than 3800 in the EU) are termed "new" chemicals. There are more than 100,000 registered chemicals in the EU alone, of which 30,000 to 70,000 are in daily use.3 Many of these are present in the aquatic environment and can influence drinking water quality. Examples are pesticides, solvents, and pharmaceutical residues. The EU regulatory framework for the Registration, Evaluation and Authorisation of Chemicals (REACH), which came into force on the 1st of June 2007, aims to tackle this issue. On a global scale the World Health Organisation has guidelines, but these are not legally binding.

3 Science, 2006, Vol. 313, p. 1072



Some chemicals pose environmental and toxicological threats, especially when they don’t biodegrade and thus accumulate in the environment (e.g. flame retardants). Such chemicals can obviously affect the quality of water resources and hence drinking water quality. For example, various pharmaceuticals, hormones, and X-Ray contrast agents have been detected in drinking water (e.g. Carbamazepine, Ibuprofen, and Sulfamethoxazole). Other trends, like the ageing populace, are expected to increase the amount of these chemicals in the environment. Regulatory bodies are adapting to account for this trend. In the European Water Framework Directive, for example, each country has to develop a plan to control the quality of their resources, which includes monitoring new contaminants such as these. Initiatives are emerging in several countries to implement preventive measures at sources; like wastewater treatment systems in hospitals and elderly homes.

Besides chemical pollutants, new pollutants of biological origin are also emerging. The avian flu virus is a recent example that gained a lot of attention, because it can be transferred to humans who drink or swim in surface water inhabited by infected birds. Such viruses are ‘natural’ whereas the fields of nano and bio technology are increasingly overlapping and generating fundamentally new synthetic products: Active nanostructures have arrived. Genetically modified bacteria and viruses, for example, present opportunities for various industries (including the water sector e.g. bio-monitoring) but they also pose risks. These technologies are developing rapidly, while the consequences are mostly unidentified. Even inactive nano particles are considered potentially toxic and, while little conclusive research has been conducted for the water sector, there are ever more products with nano constituents on the market (especially in the cosmetic industry).

Measuring instruments have become increasingly sensitive. Furthermore, a wider rage of chemicals is being measured that ever before. These developments can give the impression that an ever increasing number and concentration of chemicals are present in water. Compounds are obviously only


found if measured, so advancements in analytical methods influence the perception of water quality. Conclusions regarding trends in water quality must account for this. Nonetheless, the long-term effects of exposure to small concentrations of some emerging toxic chemicals are unknown. Detection levels may be low, but the risks can’t be ignored.

Multi-barrier approaches to water treatment are important in reducing the risks associated with emerging substances. The growing amount and types of substances require a range of removal techniques. The inclusion of membrane technology (such as ultrafiltration) in ever more treatment processes illustrates this fact. Membranes are increasingly added as a water treatment barrier, which may turn out to be a lucky coincidence as regards nanoparticles. While membrane technology has become more attractive for other reasons, some of these technologies seem also to remove new nanoparticles effectively. Besides purifying water for use, the quality of raw resources needs to be improved or preserved, taking emerging substances into consideration. Waste water treatment is crucial in this process. Technologies developed for drinking water production could be adapted for cleaning waste water. Nonetheless, the quality of water resources can only be partially improved by point-source emission reduction measures. Diffuse sources of pollution (traffic, agriculture) are much more difficult to control and are expected to result in increased aquatic pollution over the mid to long term, especially in developing countries. Continued development of purification technologies is thus required. This illustrates that a multifaceted, holistic approach is required when dealing with emerging substances.



Energy Use and Costs


Energy demand will explode worldwide as developing countries (e.g. India and China) become industrialised, populations soar, and resources dwindle. Energy consumption worldwide is expected to rise by 1.7 percent annually until 2030, including a predicted energy demand growth in China and India of 4 percent per year (IEA). But conventional nonrenewable resources (including nuclear) are limited. Exploitation of renewable sources is increasing, primarily in developed countries, but this growth industry remains marginal relative to conventional production. On the other hand, conventional techniques produce a major part of the greenhouse gasses that are amplifying and accelerating climate change. The environmental and humanitarian consequences are expected to add to arguments against unsustainable energy production. Political conflicts over import and export conditions could also exacerbate problems.

Energy costs constitute a significant part of operational costs for the water sector. Between 2 and 3 percent of the world’s energy consumption is used to pump and treat water for residential, commercial and industrial use. About 60 percent of distribution costs and 50 percent of the operational costs of wastewater treatment are related to energy consumption. Energy used worldwide for delivering water (including agricultural irrigation) is around 7 percent of total world consumption (ASE). Higher energy prices will most likely lead to increased water prices.



Various internal factors could increase energy requirements for drinking water production and wastewater treatment: − More stringent thresholds, more polluted sources, and the exploitation of

alternative water resources like seawater all require advanced treatment technologies that generally use more energy (e.g. membranes).

− Higher ecological standards for surface water will boost the application of more energy intensive treatment technologies.

− Water stress due to climate change and urbanisation necessitates the pumping of water over greater distances and from deeper in the ground.

− Water stress necessitates the use of more energy intensive water sources. In Australia, for example, traditional water supply systems, involving a dam in the hills behind a coast city where the water is largely gravity fed, were very energy efficient (0.2Kw-hr). The new sources of water, such as desalination (4.3Kw-hr) and recycling (2.8Kw-hr), are much more energy intensive.

− In some regions (esp. rural areas in Eastern Europe), distribution systems are oversized. Oversized distribution systems require additional pumping for flushing to prevent microbial growth and corrosion.

On average, about 13% of all energy produced in EU countries is from renewable sources. Worldwide this is about 8%. The EU aims to raise their percentage to 21% by 2010: a goal that will be more challenging than it seams. These averages fail to communicate the significant discrepancies between different regions. Renewable energy production is concentrated in wealthier countries that have easy access to renewable resources. In Switzerland, for example, 60% of the energy is provided by hydroelectric power. In contrast, despite significant subsidies, only 7.9% of the total power consumed in Germany comes from renewable sources. Geographic conditions, in this case the high altitude differences in the Alps, have largely determined the viability of exploiting renewable energy sources to date.

Energy is an issue on everyone’s agenda. The situation in the Baltic States is a typical example. Relatively little of the energy consumed there comes from renewable resources e.g. 0.5% and 2.8% for Estonia and Lithuania respectively. Latvia has a higher percentage due to it use of fuel wood peat. Awareness regarding the limits of fossil fuels is growing. A joint project is currently being discussed to prepare Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and perhaps Poland for a future energy crisis. The current proposal involves building a nuclear power station in Lithuania, but the negative


aspects of this unsustainable energy source remain inordinate (such as the excessive capital costs). Is there a viable alternative? The Netherlands generates 4.7% of their energy from renewable sources, while in the UK this amounts to 2.8%. Governments, NGO’s, and companies in these countries are currently engaged in heated debates over how best to tackle the energy dilemma, particularly in relation to climate change. In contrast, Norway and Iceland already rely almost entirely on renewable energy resources (92% in Norway and 100% in Iceland). Spain has also boosted renewable energy production to 22% with the use of wind, solar and wave energy. These statistics illustrate that up to now a country’s energy generation methods have depended more on the availability of natural resources than the economic situation or government policy. Nonetheless, government interventions are expected to play an increasingly significant role in the future. The US government is investigating how best to manage conversion to biofuels and a hydrogen economy. The Electricity Industry Amendment Act of 2005 in Western Australia, which comes into force in 2008, is another example. This legally binding document defines required renewable electricity percentages for every year with incremental increases from 6% in 2008 to 20% 2020.

According to various studies (ASE, BFE) the water supply sector has the potential to realise energy savings of up to 50 percent. There are many opportunities for efficiency improvements. A significant increase in energy prices is expected over the next decennia. This will act as a driving force for change. If peak oil production is reached an energy crisis could occur. Revolutionary changes for the water sector would ensue. The water sector and the energy sector interact in various ways. For example, power stations require more cooling water as demand increases. Increased evaporation losses and surface water temperatures are obvious outcomes. The quality and quantity of water resources may thus be influenced. On the other hand, water supply, sewerage, and wastewater systems require electricity to operate. Besides threats, energy shortages offer various opportunities for water sector. There is much latent potential for cooperating to achieve win-win situations for the energy and water sectors. Hydropower makes use of the kinetic energy water gains when it drops in elevation. The Three Gorges Dam that spans the Yangtze River in Hubei, China, is a modern example. Tides, waves, and ocean temperature differentials (OTEC) are also increasingly seen as viable energy sources in, for example, Spain. Saline water solar ponds and algae production in are alternative means of capturing heat energy from sunlight. Besides this, osmotic energy exploits differences in salt-concentrations (often freshwater and salt-water) to generate pressure differences that can be transferred into energy by using a turbine and a generator. There are various opportunities for involving the water sector in each of these technologies. It is clear that long-term the energy demand must be satisfied by renewable sources and there is much potential in water. The various ongoing pilot studies to recover energy from wastewater sludge illustrate this development nicely.



Ageing infrastructure

DU DU DU DU DU DU

Ageing and thus deteriorating water supply, sewerage and urban drainage infrastructure is a mounting problem in various countries. Estimated capital required for rehabilitation of main urban water and sewer pipes, older than 50 years and in 50 largest cities of the USA, exceeds $700 billion.4 Especially for systems in poorer countries, maintaining the system is perceived as economically unviable on the short-term. But failure events can also be very expensive and hard to manage, especially with sewerage systems. Providing a sufficient drinking water quality cheaply is increasingly difficult. This is often a direct result of poor asset management. Water transport systems generally have a relatively long life time (several decades), and the necessary annual costs of maintenance and renovation are easily postponed. Pressure on prices is a driving factor, but if maintenance is neglected then the required investments accumulate. Eventually the task can become insurmountable. Revolutionary interventions are then required to bring the system back into shape.

Defective distribution water supply systems cause more frequent interruptions to distribution and increased risks of poor water quality. Leaking sewerage and urban drainage systems cause contamination of groundwater and soil. Corrosion and the intrusion of polluted ambient groundwater are common threats as regards the drinking water quality. Aged supply systems mostly come hand in hand with aged sewerage systems. Since sewerage and drinking water systems are often in close proximity, risks of drinking water contamination from groundwater pollution can be higher. Rising leakage losses also result from poor maintenance. Leaks lead to higher production capacity requirements and more expensive water for the consumer.

4 EU Integrated Project. Global Change and Ecosystems. Milestone: “Inventory of Important Global Change Pressures on Urban Water Systems in the City of the Future” SWITCH 2006.



Besides physical ageing, distribution systems can become outdated and unsuitable in their capacity. Decreasing water demand, as a result of urbanisation for example, can lead to oversized systems. This can pose risks such as water quality deterioration from microbial pollutants due to the increased retention times in the system. Besides being a tremendous nuisance to the public, renovation of infrastructure in urban areas can have significant indirect negative effects on the local economy. For example, a study performed in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, found that street maintenance seriously reduces sales in adjacent shops.

The recommended annual investment for sustainable rehabilitation is 1-2 % of the total infrastructure per year. This advice is based on an average infrastructure lifetime of 50-100 years. But the practical lifespan for new construction materials is hard to predict. It is thus hard to say if the renovation rate of 1-2% per year will apply in the future. To prevent a backlog, causing unexpected financial pressure, the water companies need to carry out sound asset management research and ensure that they have the means to perform routine maintenance. The American Water Works Association (AWWA) concluded that “…water utilities should include financial targets in their mission statements and have policies on rates and financial returns that ensure ongoing financial health.”

Water loss attributable to deteriorated infrastructure differs substantially between countries (see figure 1). In the UK , water loss due to leakages is ca. 20% (OFWAT 2004/2005), with peaks of 30-40%. In Germany and The Netherlands, with a younger system, different design, and other operational practices, losses are only 4-5%.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Bulgaria (1996)

Slovenia (1999)

Hungary (1995)

Ireland (2000)

Czech Rep. (2000)

Romania (1999)

Italy (2001)

France (1997)

Slovak Rep. (1999)

United Kingdom (2000)

Spain (1999)

Sw eden (2000)

Finland (1999)

Denmark 1997)

Germany (1999)

% of water supply

Figure 1: Losses from urban water networks in European countries (Copyright EEA, Copenhagen, 2003)



Community involvement & consumer intelligence


In many parts of the world consumers lack access to safe water because water systems don’t exist or are unsafe and/or unattractive (taste, odour and colour). Concerns about drinking water supply are part of their daily lives. Conversely, consumers in countries with well developed water systems tend to take their tap water and sanitation services for granted. In these countries information about pollutants (e.g. pesticides, endocrine disruptors, NDMA, nanostructures) in sources and in drinking water (e.g. via the media) can cause short episodes of concern. As ever more people become better educated and informed through newspapers, the Internet, and NGOs (the ‘information society’), there is increasing demand for public information and involvement. Developments in Portugal exemplify this. Concerns about quality obviously cause public inquiry and interference, but consumers can also demand more of water companies if other utilities (e.g. energy) provide better service and involve their clients more. A current understanding of consumer demands is thus imperative. In developing countries, on the other hand, lessons learned regarding stakeholder involvement during water projects are clearly recognised in aid delivery policy (e.g. EuropeAid’s Project Cycle management Guidelines, 2004): “Inadequate local ownership of projects has negative implications for sustainability of benefits”. Public unease about the drinking water supply mostly stems from health concerns. Health issues are of growing interest in many parts of the world, particularly for immunocomprised people, obese people, cancer patients and other individuals with food-related illnesses (as well as the elderly). Increasingly, governments recognise the demand for (health related) information and public participation. The European Union’s Water Framework Directive addresses this need as well as ecological concerns, which are also important to consumers.



Water consumption could also be promoted as healthy: dehydration prevention; better performance during work; and anti-obesity. In general, the public prefers more readable and less technical information. Also, consumers want more localised information i.e. information that is relevant to them, so that they can anticipate the effects of construction activities, interruptions, rate increases, changes in taste and other aesthetics, et cetera.

Consumers are generally becoming more demanding as regards service levels. In Portugal, for example, this is driven by the better education of users. In many parts of the world consumers expect water companies to perform as well as commercial service oriented companies, such as (liberalised) energy companies or telecom providers. Common demands include: − 24 hours accessibility; − timely service; − flexibility in appointments; − transparent bills and multiple payment options; − accurate and carefree metering, and − application of the latest proven technologies. The growing need to inform the public (thus creating transparency) and include them in decision making will have serious consequences for water suppliers in many countries. Building mutual trust is vital. Many drinking water companies already inform consumers about drinking water quality (e.g. noncompliance with regulations) via the Internet, but a translation into health-related effects is often lacking. The water company of Tucson Arizona applies advanced consumer information methods, such as an online information system for water quality. Their users are also involved in decision making regarding upgrading the water treatment facilities via this system.

Greater openness and transparency is, however, a double-edged sword. On one hand it can increase ownership of decisions and problems and thus increase trust and acceptance of decisions. On the other hand, greater openness (e.g. revealing scientific uncertainty regarding possible health impacts of emerging pollutants) may serve to erode consumer trust. This is particularly exaggerated when ‘experts’ appear to disagree on a topic of concern. Inconsistent specialist opinions can heighten other risks, such as citizens demanding more information and influence or filing complaints procedures through the courts. Implementation of effective consumer participation is essential to avoiding litigation,


but imprudent openness can be costly. In terms of communication about a proposed change, timing is crucial. Informing people about an unfamiliar issue can cause alarm; particularly if the media exaggerate the real risks. Nonetheless, failure to inform the public about a decision may lead to public objection and sentiments of deceit when the information leaks. The key is to strike a balance and appear open. Externally conducted expert benchmarking can be an effective means of creating a climate of professionalism, transparency, and trust.

Experience has proven that public involvement in decision making regarding significant investments, such as centralised softening, application of new technologies (e.g. re-use), or demand management in water stressed areas, is easier said than done. The 1990’s saw some spectacular failures of re-use proposals because the public became involved in the decision-making process; either by accident or bad timing. Customer relations are also particularly important when communicating interventions such as rate changes. These relationships have proven easier to manage than those surrounding large-scale interventions. We can learn from these failures as well as the successes. In Australia, for example, water supply strategies for cities were recently developed with extensive and sophisticated consultation processes. Large scale re-use projects have also been successfully introduced in Singapore and in Namibia. Singapore’s NEWater re-use project used combination of traditional forms of communication along with an interactive and permanent visitor education centre. They succeeded in selling drinking water produced using treated wastewater as a source, which is no easy task. Various studies have concluded that a community that is unfamiliar with recycled water may require even more hard-hitting publicity. Opponents, however, will act similarly: phrases like ‘from toilet to tap’ can be devastating. Culture is a key factor. Australians recently rejected proposals for a reuse project in a referendum, even though they are stricken by drought. This example illustrates the dilemma of consumer involvement.



Emerging Technologies


There is ever more overlap between nano-, bio-, info-, and cogno- technologies. This trend is referred to as ‘NBIC convergence’. Increasing integration is likely to produce tremendous long-term impacts: “Unifying science based on the material unity of nature at the nanoscale provides a new foundation for knowledge, innovation, and integration of technology”5. Monitoring progress within each of these fields is complex, because they are advancing at such a rapid and accelerating rate. Just think of how swiftly the Internet and mobile telephones have become basic tools. Countless companies worldwide are positioning themselves to exploit future growth at the NBIC interfaces. The anticipated developments will create opportunities as well as threats (direct and indirect) for players in the water sector. These effects are likely to become increasingly significant within the next 20 years. New water treatment and monitoring technologies could appear, whilst potentially harmful substances are also likely to emerge.

As regards nanotechnology, various new devices are currently being built from nanoscale components (10-9m) to purposely exploit specifically different mechanical, optical, chemical or electromagnetic properties. Nano-sized matter (especially 10 to 20 nm) often has special properties because it borders the realm of quantum physics. To exemplify the minuteness of this scale: About 10 atoms fit in one nanometer, while a human hair is between 70,000 and 80,000 nanometers thick. Existing nano-products include: nano-transistors, nano-amplifiers, targeted drugs and chemicals, (bio) sensors, actuators, molecular machines, light-driven molecular motors, plasmonics, nanoscale fluidics, laser-emitting devices, and adaptive structures. Besides the nano-structures themselves, various synthesis and assembling techniques are being developed to facilitate work on the nanoscale. Bio-assembling; nano-networking, modular nanosystems; chemo-mechanical processing of molecular assemblies; and quantum- 5 Mihail C. Roco. 2004. “Science and Technology Integration for Increased Human Potential and Societal Outcomes”. National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia, USA.



based nano-systems are examples. Think of tiny membrane cleaning machines, or nanotube membranes that can purify seawater.

Modern biotechnology is characterised by the recombinant DNA technique (GM) that was discovered in 1973. As knowledge and precision grow, biotechnology is increasingly seen as ‘wet’ nanotechnology. Biotechnology is the application of scientific and engineering principles to manipulate biological systems, living organisms, or components or derivatives thereof, at the molecular level. This includes genetic engineering, bioprocessing, biological agents, biomechanics, biomaterials, and biosensors etc. Nano-robotics; nano-manufacturing processes; artificial organs; modified viruses and bacteria; regenerative medicine, and brain-machine interfaces are examples of emerging and existing products. The potential implications for the water sector are almost boundless. Think of genetically modified microorganisms that have toxicity limits that match those of humans or environmental standards: the ideal bio-monitor! On the darker side, deliberate/accidental release of genetically modified bacteria or viruses could have catastrophic effects on people and the environment.

As Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) become faster, smaller, and more user friendly, they will be increasingly integrated into our everyday lives. This trend is driven by the search for new (more detailed) knowledge, and the desire to make life easier: automation and convenience. Devices that are integrated or can communicate with each other don’t require and intermediary person. As regards news, personal and participatory media may take over mass media. Dissemination of expert knowledge will also be increasingly simple, and ICT may be used as a tool for alleviating poverty: for example, Malaysia's approach to development “uses ICT as a social and economic enabler”6. Besides communication, information technology may take all sensory measurements in the future, including remote sensing from satellites (tele-detection). Auto-analysing systems could then translate the data input from sensors into actions that are subsequently executed by suitable devices. A complete digital version of earth could evolve in cyberspace: fed by and linked to incessantly increasing live information(RFID?). This world may then be used to predict and direct the future of

6 Asian Development Bank. 2006. “The ICT Revolution: Can Asia Leapfrog Poverty Barriers?”. www.adb.org.


the physical world, but may also be a highly efficient platform for dealings in the present time. The effects of any action (construction, pumping, climate change) on water resources may thus be modelled in advance. Think of a unified, personalised information platform (e.g. GoogleEarth, GoogleSketchUp, Secondlife, YouTube and TomTom) on your PDA. A more holistic view of the water cycle may thus develop, increasing awareness e.g. consumers see the effects of pouring paint down the drain. If geographic, hydrogeological, ecological and climatological models are integrated in one digital earth model then every drop of fresh water could be followed throughout the water cycle: real-time weather radar images are already available on GoogleEarth. The digital identity may need to become a legal entity and human right - you can exist in more than one place at any one time.

Industries that develop swiftly and unchecked often collapse. The “internet bubble” was a classic example. There are various causes for this phenomenon. For example, the initial speed of technological development and application might exceed the ability of risk assessors to appraise any new threats. This could be augmented by governments that are reliant on scientists to solve environmental problems and thus more facilitating than directing. As a result, there could be major health scares. The potential risks would then outweigh the rewards in the eyes of the public, and consumers might boycott nano-and bio- engineered products. The public already distrust GM products. As regards ICT, ‘Back to basic’ could be the new fashion. As Kevin Anderson from BBC news put it: “it’s time to switch off and slow

down”. The Slow Food revolution is a recent upshot. Technology related stress has become a common phrase. There could be a revolt against cyberspace and the digital world.


The International Risk Governance Council recently (June 2006) produced a paper on nanotechnology that describes in detail the specific risks associated with each anticipated stage in nanotechnology development up until 2020. Passive nano-particles could accumulate to toxic levels in the human brain and organs. Adaptive nanostructures, on the other hand, could be self-propagating act like artificial viruses.

Besides this, there are serious ethical dilemmas associated with human/machine interfaces (like implanted memory). There has also been a lot of debate about the possible health risks of GM food, especially with regard to the response of the immune system. The WHO and IRGC are busy developing standards for the growing number of bio- and nano- substances. There are already more than 700 products in the US that have nano components, which have not

undergone proper health-risk tests. The biggest sources of nano-substances in Europe are currently aerosols and cosmetics. Cosmetics are obviously found in sewerage water. The water sector should undertake research to determine potentially problematic emerging substances and strategies for dealing with them. The public must also be carefully informed that the effects of nano- bio-technology developments are being monitored. Otherwise the media could influence public perception so that consumers lose trust - in drinking water supply for instance.

Engineered biological processes could work with nano-robots to catalyse, ‘grow,’ and assemble complex nanostructures. Genetically-modified foods may be carefully developed to be safe as well as drought and pest resistant, thus solving food shortages. DNA, the ultimate information storage molecule, might be used as a platform for nano-processors and nano-circuits to create the next generation of computers, which could also become intimately connected to the human brain and body. ICT developments will make communication and information sharing increasingly easy and advance globalisation. Extensive space exploration may be


facilitated by new ultra-strong, ultra-light materials and powerful, sustainable energy sources. But what will these developments mean for the water sector? Sensors will become increasingly accurate, durable, and cheap. As a consequence they are used to a greater extent at more points in the water supply network. Sensors may travel with the water from the production site, to the tap, and back to the source and communicate results with a home base in real-time. Further in the future, cheap point-of-use water purifiers could sense the exact constituents of any raw water at a molecular level and treat the water accordingly; determining the water’s exact molecular content. That’s quality! At this stage water utilities should investigate technical possibilities for integrating sensor and ICT technology with existing infrastructure such as membranes, meters, and taps etc. As regards treatment, desalination systems that use carbon nano- tubes could make seawater a viable source of drinking water. New membranes, developed by researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), are reported to have the potential to reduce desalination costs by 75% compared to classic reverse osmosis methods. And distribution? Numerous applications for water-attracting (superhydrophilic) and water-repelling (superhydrophobic) nano-polymers are being explored. This new material could be used for harvesting fog, or pipelines that create significantly less water resistance. These are examples of direct positive affects. Threats are primarily indirect and related to emerging substances. The indirect positive affects of emerging technologies are too numerous to name and various examples have been handled in the analysis of other trends. For example, paint that generates electricity from solar energy could solve the energy crisis. If nano fabrication processes become the norm then far less matter is required and pollution will decrease substantially. Nano manufacturing may also be possible at room temperature and without all of the extra energy and chemical substances that are currently required. Water purification costs could thus be diminished as the raw water quality improves.

Researchers developing novel ICT technologies for the water sector could find valuable partners from other utilities, such as the energy sector. For nano and bio technological development, specialist partners may be sought within in the medical and defense sectors. Interdisciplinary cooperation, research, and information sharing may speed development. Collaboration often leads to new insights.



More bottled water

D D D D D D

An increase in the use of bottled water has been observed worldwide. According to the bottled water industry, between 1999 and 2004 the growth in global sales of bottled water leapt from 98.4 to 151.4 billion litres per year (TECHNEAU; see also IBWA, 2005). This trend is continuing. One driving force is the quality (e.g. taste) or perceived quality (e.g. fear of contaminants) of tap water. This factor is more important in countries that have a large divide between rich and poor and a deficient supply system. In areas lacking of safe tap water, bottled water is obvious the only safe supply option. Socio-cultural factors play a bigger role in richer countries. In the UK, for example, bottled water is often seen as a lifestyle accessory (TECHNEAU). When bottled water is bought as a lifestyle product, then the name on the bottle is often more important than the contents. Nonetheless, quality issues can emerge: In Australia, where fluoride is added to the water, the increased consumption of bottled water has resulted in increased incidences of tooth decay in young children.

Bottled water is often associated with sport, healthy living, and diet. Demand for bottled water has been boosted by consumers’ growing awareness of the need to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Bottled water is increasingly regarded as a healthy alternative to soft-drink beverages. The need for water in a low calorie diet and maintaining general well-being has been reinforced by ‘natural’ imagery in advertisements for bottled water. Competition with tap water is thus primarily indirect in this regard. In Japan, however, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government Bureau of Waterworks is bottling and selling tap water to advertise the greatly improved quality following significant investments in purification technologies. The bottled water has become so popular that they are even considering privatisation and increasing the water price. Besides this extreme example, consumers often refill a bought bottle with tap water. This signifies that convenience is another key factor. The Dutch brand “NEAU” has



designed a product that is tailored to consumers who buy bottled water for the convenience: Consumers buy an empty bottle containing a leaflet that describes the implications of bottled water use and draws attention to water shortages worldwide. Part of the retail price is donated to water-related development projects. The consumer uses tap water to fill the bottle. This makes a statement about Dutch drinking water quality and empowers the purchaser to communicate their feelings of social responsibility and concern.

Bottled water can be 500-1000 times more expensive than tap water. Besides the sector of the market that panders to the demands of health conscious consumers, other bottled water producers are marketing their water as a luxury product. These bottles have a cleverly crafted elegant design and fashionable, classy image. Aesthetic driven consumers, at restaurants for example, comprise the target audience. Financial capacity and affluence obviously plays an important role in this segment of the market. Price is not the issue for bottle water buyers, so changes in the number of people who can afford bottled water will affect the growth of the bottled water market. This is an especially important factor in the developing regions of the world. On the other hand, criticism of the bottled water industry is growing - especially in industrialised countries. The ecological and resource (e.g. energy) costs of packaging, transport and waste are much worse for bottled water than for tap water production. According to the triple bottom line, bottling water is an unsustainable practice. There is also concern about the of bottled water quality, since regulations for bottled water are less strict than those for tap water in many countries.

The future of bottled water is uncertain. Considering the relationship between this trend and affluence, market growth in rapidly developing countries (e.g. Asia) seems probable for the next 20 years. Nonetheless, a countertrend could easily develop over the short to mid-term future (5-15 years); especially under influence of NGO organisations (e.g. environmentalists). This could result in a drastic reduction in bottled water consumption worldwide. Public water suppliers often tend to ignore this trend, since a relatively small percentage of the water they provide is actually consumed (ca. 5-10%). But if the sentiment that tap water is unsafe grows, due in part to advertisements for bottled water, then suppliers may be reduced to providing cheap “grey water”. Efforts to improve water resources and treatment would thus become at least partially obsolete. This threat justifies targeted PR activities by water suppliers to “defend” their position and reputation.



The efficiency driven water sector


Water companies and governments throughout the world are facing a dilemma. In various developed countries huge infrastructure investments are needed, due to ageing or lacking infrastructure and population dynamics, but there is little room for raising prices. Likewise, water companies in developing countries need to address the needs of the very poor (South Africa, India, China and Eastern Europe). Pressure on prices is even higher in these countries. Sustainable Development requires maximum output using minimum resources and producing minimum waste. Water companies in developed countries are also required to comply with stricter legislation and lower thresholds for contaminants (e.g. throughout Europe, USA). At the same time, new types and concentrations (e.g. more medicines from ageing populations) of pollutants are being discharged into the environment. These often require expensive new monitoring and treatment technologies (advanced oxidation, membranes etc.). Besides direct price pressure, there is also increasing conflict between stakeholders for limited water resources. Household consumption is just one use for water. Some other trends may also increase competition. Biofuel production, for example, consumes up to 10 times more water than for petrol. This is a growth industry due to the looming energy crisis. Water demand for agriculture is also likely to increase with growth of the world’s population. When competition for a resource increases so too does its value and thus price. This is likely to augment pressure for efficiency in the water sector.



Keeping these trends in mind, it is expected that water tariffs will continue to increase significantly into the future. Pinsent Masons Water Yearbook states that an investment of $2.3 trillion will be required worldwide over the next twenty years. This study also predicts that governments will only have the capacity to invest 25 percent of this, leaving 75 percent to come from private sources.

Governments and consumers are basically demanding more for less from their water utilities. This is the main force behind the trend towards an efficiency driven water sector. Human rights demand huge investments in areas lacking any infrastructure where customers have little to spend. Water utilities are adapting in various ways to cope with this pressure. To demonstrate optimum quality and efficiency, benchmarking (e.g. IWA) has been introduced in various countries. In the UK it is compulsory, while water sectors in Australia, The Netherlands and Nordic countries have begun benchmarking of their own initiative. There has also been a significant increase in the number of (international) mergers and takeovers worldwide over the last 20 years. This trend is expected to continue for the next 20 years. Companies are also exploring other alternatives for cutting costs. Public private partnerships and outsourcing of specific tasks, like billing, are on the increase. There is also a trend towards more automation of processes in billing, treatment plants, laboratories and online metering. Metering is expected to become universal practice, also in the UK and developing countries. Privatisation and liberalisation have also been attempted to varying degrees of success.

The trend towards an efficiency driven water sector takes many different forms on a regional scale. Ed Means, expert in long-range management strategies for water utilities, recently stated that privatisation rates have slowed. Means has also observed that “poorly structured contracts, a history of under-bidding, and a high cost, unpredictable, bidding environment have damaged the outsourcing market.” Nonetheless, some experts from utilities and governing entities still anticipate more long-term public-private partnerships and forecasts for different regions diverge. Variance in the success of different (financial) management models is especially large in developing countries.


The number of private water utilities in the US rose from 13% to 16% from 1995 to 2000; however, the total water produced by private utilities declined from 12% to 9% during that same period. Various governments are weighing up buy backs. La Paz and El Alto were returned to state in 2005, and competition between companies in the UK means some are struggling to maintain infrastructure with price pressures and quality demands. Attempts to increase involvement of private partners have failed in several countries due to political sensitivity surrounding public services; partly for ideological reasons and partly because no adequate regulatory regimes are in place to oversee such contracts. The progress of PPP’s in many countries has thus been limited in recent years. Nonetheless, there is a huge potential for further involvement of the private sector in the water industry: privatisation and liberalisation are not the only options. Some experts anticipate sustained growth in private sector involvement for the future. In China, for example, market researchers have projected private involvement in the water sector of approximately 16% in 2015. This is significant since China now accounts for 25% of the global market in population terms.


Conclusions

Our society is increasingly engaged in risk management, which relies on modelling the future. Fortunately the future brings opportunities besides risks. Early identification of these chances and threats maximises our ability to adapt. Foresight studies are a tool for this purpose. Chances are hereby exploited in a timely fashion just as threats are easier manage. After all, you cannot change the direction of wind but you can adjust your sails. The water sector is constantly changing along with the rest of the world. There are times when changes occur quickly, but progress can also be slow and steady. As an added complexity, everything contains the potential for its opposite: yin and yang. Hype's can suddenly emerge and disappear, just as trends can be overcome by counter-trends. Besides this, not all ships sail at the same speed: global trends often take diverse forms and have dissimilar impacts on a local scale. Some trends, like increasing political tension, can have highly localised revolutionary effects. If a trend is visualised as a bucket filling with water, then the turning point is the drop that causes the bucket to overflow. ‘Horizon scanning’ improves our understanding of the parameters that determine such turning points. Besides this, the consequences of the potential overflow are analysed. This report summarises and generalises the latest results of many local horizon scanning efforts worldwide. The ten major global trends have thus been selected and described for the water sector. Each of the trends listed is like a major supporting thread being woven in the carpet of circumstances that will define the water sector in 2026. Even so, an incalculable number and type of factors will determine future conditions on a regional scale. For this reason, the next step (developing adaptive strategies) should be undertaken in cooperation with the water utilities and other stakeholders on a regional scale. The ultimate goal is to translate assessment into action.


Humans have predominantly given up adaptation in the form of nomadic living, and now turn to technology to make it possible to stay in one place (e.g. dykes in The Netherlands). Based on the potential impacts of ten major global trends for the water sector, the water supply, sanitation, and wastewater treatment systems in many countries may need to undergo considerable changes in the (near) future to ensure their continuation. This must be seen in the light of the fact that the poor majority of the world’s population has the highest population growth rate and the least capacity to adapt. These people are most at risk. Adaptive strategies (preparedness) can play an important role in efficiently solving impending problems and exploiting emerging opportunities optimally. So, how can we translate knowledge of trends into strategies for different continents, countries, and regions? The core concept is “Think global act local”, so local adaptations must be designed and applied locally. The first step for all players is to estimate what the ten major trends mean for them: Business as usual: no specific interventions are needed Evolution: gradual adjustment required (threats and opportunities) Revolution: alternatives are immediately necessary Once the potential for impact has been estimated, then adaptive strategies can be designed. Interventions can be made for different purposes: Resistance: protect conventional practices and technologies Adaptation: change to fit new circumstances Mitigation: counteract the trend by lessening its driving forces Climate change, for instance, is likely to exacerbate droughts in Spain. There is little room for resistance, so revolutionary interventions may be necessary. Adaptive measures could involve more irrigation or alternative crop choice for agriculture and improved water efficiency for industry and households. Reducing CO2 emissions and reforestation can be classified as mitigation. As a next step, TECHNEAU will develop guidelines for developing adaptive strategies: a universally applicable toolbox for designing local (technological) solutions. Workshops will be used to involve diverse players within the sector in the design process. The adaptive strategies developed in TECHNEAU will be tested in case studies at a later stage.


Appendix 1: Greyscale version of Figure 1: Trends ranked by authors.

Figure 1: The Ten Major Trends were ranked by the authors based on personal opinion. You are invited to rank these trends for your region and submit your opinion to [email protected].

mailto:[email protected]�


Appendix 2 Credit Photographs (Agency: ©Dreamstime.com)

Page Photograph Title Photographer 1 Thirsty Michael Pettigrew 4 Positive Future Fotofreak 4 Life Ring Fintastique 6 We’re Watching Joegough 6 Purple/Pink Water Gun 1 Spauln 7 World destiny Anchesdd 9 GLobe Galdzer 9 The eye Lammeyer 10 Coral with tiny fish and divers Begreen 10 Cracked earth Ene 11 Being ill Kameel4u 12 The high cost of Hurricanes Alancrosthwaite 12 Time and money Pozn 13 Los Angeles skyline at dusk Logoboom 13 Slums Jan Martin Will 14 Water Pipeline David Hyde 15 Now it’s your turn… Mietitore 16 Connecting the world Alon-o 16 World by water illustration Grafikeray 17 World copyright Rolffimages 18 Dirty and clear Juliussucha 19 Aspirin/paracetamol and a glass of water Lilcrazyfuzzy 19 Iceberg Above And Below Jan Martin Will 20 Suits of armour Wessel Cirkel 21 Grunge barrels in the backyard Javarman 22 Eolic park Arturo Limon 24 Rusty Pipes Rauso 25 Rusty Pipes Matthias33 27 Spousal Abuse Humor Ken Hurst 27 Poker - 2 cards Rafał Fabrykiewicz 28 Senior woman III Alcoholic 29 Nucleus Spectral-design 30 Medical robot Billyfoto 31 3D Digital Human Body A-papantoniou 31 Bubble gum girl Eric Simard 32 Virus Eraxion 32 Water Drop illustr. Konradlew 33 Microchip on a fingertip Joris Van Den Heuvel 34 Water - good for the body Karen Roach 35 Blue bottle and glasses Tracy Hebden 35 Woman holding jump rope & water bottle Ron Chapple 36 Pressure gauge Marekp 37 Sign Abdone 37 Sailboat alone in a storm Benjamin Howell 38 Public and private domains Pryzmat 39 Sailboat Rob Bouwman 39 Financial Future April Turner 40 Square Peg Tmcnem

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