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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

TheFutureofAlmostEverythingandhowtocreatemagicforcustomers

Ins:tu:onalBlindness-beyonddata

Complexity and scale create risks

Title Text

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Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting

Agility

What is the future of the global

ECONOMY

WGP2005-2014(%,constantprices)

VietnamGDP1985-2011

$3.4trillion

$2.4trillion

Reserves

The future is aboutEMOTION

85% of world population will be living in emerging

markets in 10 years

1 billion will migrate over next 30 yearsspend on infrastructure in 30 years greater

than in all previous previous history

Science,technologyengineering,

maths

MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets

Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child

1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time

FutureofHospitals

Smartimagingwilltransformdiagnosisandtreatment

$75bn endoscopy market by 2022

125,000 stents or carotid surgery a year in US

250millionwearabledevicesby2023

$20bnto$70bnby2025

Home Tele-Monitoring

Read your genes in 2 hours for

$2000

PigsteethgrowninsideratsMicegrownewteethfromnervecells/gum:ssue

Grow New Teeth

Repair Heart / Brain / Retina / Spine

Life expectancy will grow much

faster than forecast

1weekevery4

Slow or no ageing is a reality

Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales

No signs of getting old

Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years

Some animals do not age in normal way

1trillionpagesamonth

People love Cities and Offices

Teleworking Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based 60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from home regularly - but few take it (during office hours)

Talking to customers on journey of life

Death of traditional marketing

90% all global data generated in last 2 years

Sales of canned food in Mexico store = demand for more steel tins in China

Big Data

Little Data often matters

most

Big Data = PatternLittle Data = Person

missing you

FromMARKETINGcampaigntoALWAYS-ONCONVERSATION

Globalised+BarriersProblemofScale

Since 1980, global trade has grown at twice the rate of production but this trend will slow down rapidly

South to South Trade will grow

VW mega platformVWMegaPla^orm-basisfor1mcars

World too small for more than:2 airline manufacturers

3 mobile operating systems10 large pharma

5 large auto companies

11%wageinfla`oninChinain2013-2015

NearshoringBoom

MegaChains

Converging in price, quality, experience and appearance

AcrossEU,10grocerscapture50%ofsales

Instant information

Internet of Things

Fast Fashion 15 days design / order to market

28% savings on unwanted markdowns, lost sales or

stockouts using RFID tags

Most online sales will be MOBILE

8dressesindifferentsizeandcolourdeliveredto

home

Loca`onMarke`ng

isnextBIGTHING

Over4000roadhauliersinEU

82

SUPPLYCHAIN

OlderBuyers

MobilePayment

1.7bnmobileusers-nobankaccount Kenya-17mcustomersusemPesa $9bnpa->33%GDP

90

1.7bnphoneusersareunbanked

Free mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model

201020132015

TelcoBanks

90%MicrosofR&D SalesForceR&D>$3bnpa

CLOUD

5.5billioncyberahacks42%increase/year

BigData-InternetofThings-Cloud>160Gbpsindenialofservice

$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism

75% global growth in green energy was in China in 2014

Shale gas 33% US supplies

3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil

produced than Saudi by 2020

200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power useQUEBECfromARIZONAMOSCOWfromSAHARA

Solar cell generation parity

SolarCells$/wah1990-2015

subsidies

PriceParity

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert

Why China will dominate wind power industry 40% EU power = wind by 2050

Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?

ManagingPeakGenera`on InJune2013electricitypricesinGermanybecamenega`ve-EU150/MWhr

Smart heating or cooling Save 30-50% energy - payback 4 years

New Street Lamps save 3%

national energy

Beyond Compliance

do things you really believe in LifeisShort

AllleadershipcomesfromVISIONofabeherfuture

LessonfromNon-ProfitsandAc`vists

Connectwithallthepassionspeoplehaveandtheywillfollowyoutothe

endsoftheearth,promotewhatyoudowithpride,andmayevenbewillingto

workforyoufornexttonothing

.andthefourwordphraseis.

do things you really believe in LifeisShort

BuildingaBeherWorld

TheMagicofeverygreatBusiness

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

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