8/12/2019 Global Warming Could Swamp Florida Within 50 Years

1/3

Global warming could swamp Florida within 50 years, U.N.report suggests

By Tim Collieouth Florida un!entinel

February ", "00#

$ much!debated U.N. report on climate change to be released today raises thespecter o% rising sea le&els and hurricanes that could e&entually swamp much o%

outh Florida.

'ne o%%icial this wee( e&en suggested the Bahamas could be under water by "0)0.

*o+ens o% scientists and go&ernment eperts %rom --) countries edited the newreport by the ntergo&ernmental /anel on Climate Change, or /CC. t is considered

by most in the scienti%ic community to be the comprehensi&e document on climatechange, one that could in%luence go&ernment and industrial policy worldwide.

peci%ically, eperts are loo(ing at predictions o% sea le&el rise o&er the net 50

years %rom " %eet to -0 %eet.

$ rise o% -0 %eet could swamp the states highly populated coastline and send saltwater spilling into the %reshwater 1&erglades, said a leading outh Florida!based

scientist.

2ts an outlying estimate, but a -0!%oot rise is within the realm o% possibility,2 saidtephen /. 3eatherman, director o% the nternational 4urricane esearch Center at

Florida nternational Uni&ersity. 2% that happens, not only do you ha&e rising water

to the east, but you ha&e saltwater encroachment in the 1&erglades. t essentially

becomes part o% the ocean to the west o% us.

2$t that point, %orget about 1&erglades restoration ... 6ost o% this area is maybe -0%eet abo&e sea le&el, so i% youre tal(ing about a -0!%oot rise, and rising tide on top

o% that, then its all o&er.2

t would be inconcei&able that construction could easily adapt to such a rise,3eatherman said.

2To preser&e places li(e Fort 3auderdale, 7est /alm Beach, youd be building high

sea walls li(e they ha&e in New 'rleans, and that wouldnt help during storms,2 hesaid.

But critics o% e%%orts to mandate industrial controls on carbon emissions, thought tobe a leading cause o% the warming, are not li(ely to be silenced by the report.

2This is ... an ad&ocacy group %or controls on carbon emissions,2 said Tom 4arris,eecuti&e director o% the Natural esources tewardship /ro8ect, a leading

clearinghouse %or challenges to the science behind global warming. 27e ha&ent seenthe science theyre drawing on in this report, and were not going to see it tomorrow.

2Therere o&er -0,000 reports that come out in any year on climate change ... 'ur

8/12/2019 Global Warming Could Swamp Florida Within 50 Years

2/3

own scientists ha&e raised 9uestions about the data they&e seen %rom the /CC.2

'&er the past century, sea le&els ha&e risen one %oot, but that rate has doubled inthe last two decades, alarming climate scientists. They are especially concerned by

recent e&idence that shows huge areas o% ice disappearing %or the %irst time incenturies in the $rctic and $ntarctica.

The melting ice raises sea le&els and, with global warming, water gets hotter andepands.

cientists in&ol&ed in the /CC are trying to incorporate concerns that their earlydra%ts underestimate how much the sea le&el will rise by "-00 because they cannot

predict how much ice will melt %rom Greenland and $ntarctica.

n early dra%ts, scientists predicted a sea le&el rise o% no more than ") inches by"-00, but that does not include massi&e ice sheet melts that ha&e been measured

o&er the past %ew years.

till, 3eatherman says hes cautious about the pro8ections. $ pioneering researcher in

sea!le&el rise who has been in&ol&ed with /CC reports %or three decades,3eatherman said that the more li(ely scenario is that outh Floridians will %ace amassi&e e%%ort to sta&e o%% beach erosion %rom moderate rises o% " to ) %eet.

$ rise o% -0 %eet could swamp the states highly populated coastline and send salt

water spilling into the %reshwater 1&erglades, said a leading outh Florida!basedscientist.

2ts an outlying estimate, but a -0!%oot rise is within the realm o% possibility,2 said

tephen /. 3eatherman, director o% the nternational 4urricane esearch Center atFlorida nternational Uni&ersity. 2% that happens, not only do you ha&e rising water

to the east, but you ha&e saltwater encroachment in the 1&erglades. t essentially

becomes part o% the ocean to the west o% us.

2$t that point, %orget about 1&erglades restoration ... 6ost o% this area is maybe -0%eet abo&e sea le&el, so i% youre tal(ing about a -0!%oot rise, and rising tide on top

o% that, then its all o&er.2

t would be inconcei&able that construction could easily adapt to such a rise,

3eatherman said.

2To preser&e places li(e Fort 3auderdale, 7est /alm Beach, youd be building highsea walls li(e they ha&e in New 'rleans, and that wouldnt help during storms,2 he

said.

But critics o% e%%orts to mandate industrial controls on carbon emissions, thought tobe a leading cause o% the warming, are not li(ely to be silenced by the report.

2This is ... an ad&ocacy group %or controls on carbon emissions,2 said Tom 4arris,

eecuti&e director o% the Natural esources tewardship /ro8ect, a leadingclearinghouse %or challenges to the science behind global warming. 27e ha&ent seen

the science theyre drawing on in this report, and were not going to see it tomorrow.

2Therere o&er -0,000 reports that come out in any year on climate change ... 'ur

8/12/2019 Global Warming Could Swamp Florida Within 50 Years

3/3

own scientists ha&e raised 9uestions about the data they&e seen %rom the /CC.2

'&er the past century, sea le&els ha&e risen one %oot, but that rate has doubled inthe last two decades, alarming climate scientists. They are especially concerned by

recent e&idence that shows huge areas o% ice disappearing %or the %irst time incenturies in the $rctic and $ntarctica.

The melting ice raises sea le&els and, with global warming, water gets hotter andepands.

cientists in&ol&ed in the /CC are trying to incorporate concerns that their earlydra%ts underestimate how much the sea le&el will rise by "-00 because they cannot

predict how much ice will melt %rom Greenland and $ntarctica.

n early dra%ts, scientists predicted a sea le&el rise o% no more than ") inches by"-00, but that does not include massi&e ice sheet melts that ha&e been measured

o&er the past %ew years.

till, 3eatherman says hes cautious about the pro8ections. $ pioneering researcher in

sea!le&el rise who has been in&ol&ed with /CC reports %or three decades,3eatherman said that the more li(ely scenario is that outh Floridians will %ace amassi&e e%%ort to sta&e o%% beach erosion %rom moderate rises o% " to ) %eet.

2t basically means instead o% putting enough sand down to %ight o%% a %oot, you&e

got to put much more sand down to (eep beaches with a "!%oot rise,2 he said.

2Thats whats going to happen because nobodys going to let prime real estate li(ethe *iplomat 4otel in 4ollywood 8ust collapse in the water.2

The report also will say global warming has made stronger hurricanes, including

those that hit outh Florida in "00: and "005. The panel appro&ed language saying

an increase in hurricane and tropical cyclone strength since -;#0 2more li(ely thannot2 can be attributed to man!made global warming.