Turns out, the grass really is greener…

Timothy Boucher

Gobi GTZ Ecological Assessment

Measuring Sustainable Grazing

Mongolia GTZ Project Region

Mongolia GTZ Project

The GTZ Gobi project was part of the larger GTZ

“Conservation and Sustainable Management of Natural

Resources” program and ran from 1998 to 2006.

About 5,000 people participated in the Gobi project

which focused on community grasslands management

and developing new income-generating activities for

local people.

Mongolia GTZ Project Study

The Gobi study site was chosen after a worldwide review of

all known grassland projects.

This project was believed by experts to have demonstrated

how a conservation initiative can benefit people and nature.

The study aim was to identify the project’s success factors

that can be replicated in other grassland sites.

Gobi GTZ Project Route and Sampling Sites

Gobi GTZ Project

Gobi GTZ Project

BACI Type Assessment

Before vs. After

Control vs. Intervention

Measuring Sustainable Grazing in the Gobi

Gobi GTZ Project BACI Assessment

Control vs. Intervention

Project Intervention: Year ~2000 onwards

Using MODIS NDVI Data (250m pixels)

Intervention sites – 39 Control Sites – 37

(courtesy http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov)

NDVI = (NIR - VIS)/(NIR + VIS) Calculations result in a number that ranges from minus one (-1) to plus one (+1) No green leaves gives a value close to zero. High density of green leaves gives a value close to +1 (0.8 - 0.9)

Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI)

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/

NOAA 11 AVHRR

1980 2000 1990 1985 2010 2005 1995

NOAA 7 AVHRR

NOAA 9 AVHRR

NOAA 14 AVHRR

SeaWiFS

SPOT

MODISes NOAA-16

NPP

NOAA 9 NOAA-17

Satellite NDVI data

sources

NOAA-18

C. Tucker

*Above 0.12 is when plants can be grazed.

Seasonal Average Growth Curve Comparison.

Conservation vs. non-conservation sites:

Faster green-up in spring, more growth, Longer growing season (p = 0.014)

Gobi GTZ Project

Seasonal Biomass Growth Comparison (TI-NDVI).

15 percent more biomass (p = 0.05)

Gobi GTZ Project BACI Assessment

Before vs. After

Before Project Intervention – 1982 to 1999 After Project Intervention – 2000 to 2006

Using AVHRR NDVI Data (8km pixels)

Intervention sites – 9 Control Sites – 9

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Average Rainfall

Post Soviet, Pre-Project Project

Rainfall history – 1982 to 2008

Soviet Era

Seasonal Biomass Growth (TI-NDVI) 30 Year History of Data (18 sites)

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Communities Non-Communities

Pre-project

No significant difference between conservation

and non-conservation sites.

Project

Communities have 6%

Higher Biomass

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Communities Non-Communities

Pre-project Project

Low TI-NDVI Years (Drought)

Seasonal Biomass Growth (TI-NDVI)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1984 1985 1986 1989 1991 1995 1996 2001 2002 2004 2005

Communities Non-Communities

Drought Years

Project years

In drought years, conservation sites are significantly better off

14% higher TI-NDVI (p = 0.099)

Seasonal Biomass Growth (TI-NDVI)

Summary

The Communities had a longer growing season, with earlier and faster

green-up in the spring, and a higher peak growth between 2000 and 2009.

Over the whole season, this meant community members had 15 percent

more biomass available on their land than there was on the pastures

managed by non-members.

The long-term analysis showed that overall plant growth in the 80s and 90s

was almost identical in both community and non-community sites, ruling out

inherent differences between them as a cause for this finding.

The long-term analysis also showed that after the conservation program

started, during drought years there was more forage available for community

sites.

Measuring Sustainable Grazing in the Gobi

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was funded by The Nature Conservancy (TNC) with the

support of the Schooner Foundation and the HGH Foundation.

The fieldwork in Mongolia benefited from the support of many people and

organizations. Special thanks go to Sabine Schmidt from the New

Zealand Nature Institute (NZNI).

The team of facilitators, enumerators and translators was formed by

Altanchimeg, Buyant, Chimgee, Deegi, Dolzoo, Gerlee, Nyamaa and

Tungaa.

Appreciation also goes to the local guides and community organizers,

and all focus group participants, key informants, and participants in the

household survey who were willing to give their time and knowledge as

input for this study.

For more information on the Conservation and Poverty

Reduction Project go to:

www.nature.org/ourscience/conservation-and-poverty-

reduction-project.xml

http://www.nature.org/ourscience/conservation-and-poverty-reduction-project.xmlhttp://www.nature.org/ourscience/conservation-and-poverty-reduction-project.xmlhttp://www.nature.org/ourscience/conservation-and-poverty-reduction-project.xmlhttp://www.nature.org/ourscience/conservation-and-poverty-reduction-project.xmlhttp://www.nature.org/ourscience/conservation-and-poverty-reduction-project.xmlhttp://www.nature.org/ourscience/conservation-and-poverty-reduction-project.xmlhttp://www.nature.org/ourscience/conservation-and-poverty-reduction-project.xmlhttp://www.nature.org/ourscience/conservation-and-poverty-reduction-project.xmlhttp://www.nature.org/ourscience/conservation-and-poverty-reduction-project.xml