gold bulls endure bear market as goldman says sell commodities
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7/28/2019 Gold Bulls Endure Bear Market as Goldman Says Sell Commodities
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Gold Bulls Endure Bear Marketas Goldman Says Sell:
Commodities
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the tyler group news barcelona,Gold Bulls Endure Bear Market as Goldman Says Sell:
Commodities
Hedge funds and other speculators added to bullish gold bets before the metal slumped into
a bear market and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned the retreat is accelerating after thelongest rally in nine decades.The investors increased net-long positions by 19 percent to
56,084 futures and options in the week ended April 9, the first gain in three weeks, U.S.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That contrasts with a 7.9 percent
decline in bullish wagers across 18 U.S.-traded raw materials, which fell to a five-week low
of 431,581 contracts. Holdings in agriculture dropped to the lowest since September 2006.
The turn in the gold cycle is quickening and investors should sell the metal, Goldman Sachssaid in an April 10 recommendation that returned 5.4 percent in three days. Gold retreated
as the Standard & Poors GSCI Index of 24 raw materials fell to a nine-month low, extending
a slump that Citigroup Inc. said marks the death bell for the supercycle, or longer-than-
average period of rising prices. Global equities advanced to the highest since June 2008 as
U.S. stocks reached a record.
Anybody who did some buying before this big drop is probably in some pain, saidDonaldSelkin, who helps manage about $3 billion of assets as chief market strategist at National
Securities Corp. in New York. The perception is that gold is not really needed as a safe
haven. People are looking at the stock market and theyre stunned, and theres no inflation.
So people are saying What do we need gold for?
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Trading PartnersSpot gold fell 6.2 percent to $1,483 an ounce last week, the biggest drop since December
2011. The S&P GSCI retreated 0.8 percent, reaching its lowest since July. The MSCI All-
Country World Index of equities climbed 2.5 percent and the dollar slid 0.2 percent against
a basket of six trading partners. Treasuries lost 0.2 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index
shows. Gold lost as much as 9.9 percent to $1,335.75, the lowest since February 2011, and
settled at $1,347.95.
Investor Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodity rally in 1999, said gold was
in need of a correction, and that he will start to buy it if it goes down enough. He didnt
say at what price he would start to buy.
A European Commission debt assessment dated April 9 said Cyprus had committed toselling around 400 million euros ($524 million) of excessgold reserves. The Cypriot
central bank said it hadnt discussed such plans. Cyprus has 13.9 metric tons of reserves,
ranking it 61st globally with an amount equal to about 2 percent of daily trade in the
London market.
Goldman RecommendationGoldman cut its three-month target to $1,530 an ounce from$1,615 and lowered the 12-month forecast to $1,390 from $1,550, analysts DamienCourvalin and Jeffrey Curriesaid in a report April 10. Gold is in a bubble, Societe
Generale SA said April 2. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded
fund backed by bullion, reached 1,158.6 tons on April 12, the lowest since late April
2010.Central-bank stimulus programs will help buoy gold prices, said Jeffrey Sica, who
helps oversee more than $1 billion in assets as the president at Sica Wealth Management
LLC in Morristown,New Jersey.
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Payrolls GrewThe Federal Reserve is buying $85 billion of debt a month and has said further
improvement in the labor market is needed to consider reducing its record monetary
stimulus known as quantitative easing. Payrolls grew by 88,000 in March, the least in
nine months, the Labor Department said April 5. Confidence among consumers fell in
April to the lowest since July, a private report showed April 12.
Bank of Japan (8301) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated last week a pledge for all
necessary steps to meet a goal of 2 percent inflation in two years. The central bank
will boost its monthly bond purchases to 7 trillion yen ($76 billion) to fight deflation
and revive the economy, he said April 4.
I see gold being much more stable, Sica said. The Fed will not stop printing
money, and the quantitative easing will go on until at least the end of the year.
What Japan is doing and what the U.S. is doing will continue to support gold prices in
the future.The Fed, BOJ and European Central Bank have more than doubled the
combined size of their balance sheets since the global financial crisis erupted in
2007.
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