goldman sachs industrials conference 2013 · 2013-11-13 · 1 goldman sachs industrials conference...
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Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013
Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013
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Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not
statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to future economic improvement and its ability to capitalize on any future economic improvement; provide safe, efficient and reliable service; maintain agility; and generate value for its customers and shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.
Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).
Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.
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Portland
Los Angeles
Calexico
Seattle
Brownsville
Houston New Orleans
Twin Cities
Nogales El Paso
Duluth
Oakland Omaha
Denver Salt Lake City
Kansas City
Chicago
Memphis
St. Louis
Fastest Growing States
Ports
Borders & Interchange
C
To/From Asia
Portla
Oaklala
To/From Asia
To Europe, South America
and Africa
Industrial 16%
Agricultural 19%
Chemicals 15%
asosEagle Pass Laredo
Dallas
Eastport
a
Industriiiiialallllll 16%
Agricuuuuuuultltltltltlturuuuuuuu al19%
ChChChChChemememememicicicicici alaallaaalss15%%
Intermodal 20%
Coal 20%
Autos 9%
Industrial 18%
Agricultural 17%
Chemicals 16%
Freight Revenue $19.7B in 2012
• Diverse Business Mix • Fastest Growing States • Broad Port Access • Interchange Traffic &
Border Crossings
The Strength of a Unique Franchise
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2013 YTD Record Results Through September
Positives • Best-Ever Records
– Earnings – Operating Revenue – Operating Income – Operating Ratio
• Franchise Diversity Challenges • Coal & Grain Volumes
2011 2012 2013
$4.74
$6.08 $6.88
Best-Ever YTD
+13%
Earnings Per Share
2011 2012 2013
71.6
68.0 66.5
Operating Ratio (%)
Best-Ever YTD
(1.5) pts
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2013 Volume Drivers
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
7-Day Monthly Carloadings (000s)
2006 @192
2010 @172
January December
2011 @176.5
2009 @152
Coal
Automotive
YTD 2013 Volume Growth* (vs YTD 2012)
Agricultural
TOTAL
Flat
+5%
-6%
-9%
+3%
-1%
+6%
Industrial Products
Chemicals
Intermodal
2012 @ 176
*Through November 10, 2013
2013 YTD * down 1%
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Coal Trends
Electricity Generation*
*Through November 10, 2013
50% 50% 48% 48% 47%
38% 40%
17% 20% 19% 21% 20%
27%
30% Apr ’12: 32%
2007 2009 2011 2013
% from coal % from natural gas
*U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – through September 2013
Total U.S. Electrical Generation (thousand megawatt hrs/day)
Natural Gas Prices* (NYMEX)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$2.71 $2.30
$2.49
$2.96 $2.92 $3.35
$3.77 $4.07
$3.64 $3.62 $3.65
2013 2012
*NG1 Futures Price
Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings)
Southern Powder River Basin
74%
Other 13%
1Q 4Q
Southern Powder River Basin
74%
25,000
29,000
33,000
37,000
41,000
45,000
2011 2012
2Q 3Q
2013*
(19%) Flat
(7%)
WY Blizzard (14%)
4QTD
• 2013 Contract Loss • Mild Weather • Electricity Consumption • Natural Gas Prices • Wyoming Blizzard
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Agricultural Trends
Est. U.S. Crop Production & Exports* (vs. 2012) (vs. 2012)
30%
-6% 7%
92%
9% 10%
Corn Wheat Soybeans
Export Production
*Source: USDA, November 2013
UP 2012 Volume Mix
Grain Products
34%
Grain 40%
Food & Refrigerated
26%
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
AAR Weekly Grain Carloads
2013*
2012
*Through November 10, 2013
Grain (Year-over-Year Volume Change)
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
-22% -17% -20%
-13% -16%
-20%
-29%
1% Export Domestic
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Permian Basin
Marcellus
Eagle Ford
Niobrara
Bakken
Canadian Crude
Current UP Origins Current UP Destinations Connecting Railroad Origins
Utica
Barnett
$105 Brent
$105 Brent
$105 Brent
$98 LLS
$76
$78
$90
$91
TOTAL U.S. Crude Oil** (August 2013)
BPD MM
Consumption* 15.8 Imports 8.1 Production 7.5
Crude prices as of 11/8/13 Sources: Plains Posting, Argus Research, Platts, North Dakota Pipeline Authority
*Refinery & Blender Net Inputs **Supply & disposition categories not depicted: Adjustments and Inventory Changes
$55
Union Pacific Crude-by-Rail
West Coast (PADD 5)** (August 2013)
BPD MM
Consumption* 2.4 Imports 1.3 Production (excl. AK) 0.6 Alaska Production 0.4
Gulf Coast (PADD 3)** (August 2013)
BPD MM
Consumption* 8.2 Imports 3.8 Production 4.5
Cushing $94
$101 ANS
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Shale -- It’s More Than Just Crude Oil
2013 YTD* Vol (000s) % Inc Frac Sand 142.2 22 Pipe 27.2 3 Crude Oil 131.0 36
4.5% of Total Volumes
Fertilizer Production Plant Construction/Expansions to potentially displace some imports
Polyethylene Expansions More than $10B of investment announcements (many in the Gulf)
Refined Petroleum Products Residual Fuel Oil & LP Gas
Manufacturing Expansions Including Steel and Plastics
Pipeline Construction UP participates in moving pipe shipments to build pipelines
Potential U.S. Economic Development
Frac Sand An average horizontal frac job uses between 30 to 50 railcars of materials per well
Pipe for Drilling Each well uses between 3 to 5 carloads of drilling pipe
Crude-by-Rail Bakken to Gulf represents majority of current business.
Union Pacific
*Through September 30, 2013
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Shreveport
Ft. Worth
Dallas
Houston New Orleans
San Antonio
Brownsville
Existing Plants New Plant/Expansions
Expanding Chemical Franchise Texas/Louisiana Investments
Formosa Plastics Corp. • >$1.7 Billion investment in cracker
and additional capacity projects. • Cracker capacity: 800,000 mt/year • Estimated completion in 2016
Dow Chemical Co. • $1.7 Billion investment in cracker
and additional capacity projects. • Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2017
Chevron Phillips Chemical Co. • $5 Billion investment in cracker &
additional capacity projects. • Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2017
k
Gruppo Mossi & Ghisolfi • Investment in new PET & PTA plants. • Capacity: 1.0 & 1.2 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2016
Source: Public Announcements
Exxon Mobil Corp. • Investment in steam cracker. • Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2016
Investment Announcements Total Over $10 Billion
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UP Positioned for Mexico Growth Opportunities Strong Investments – Foreign and Domestic
Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR)
UP Interchange Points
New Industrial Investment
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
708 764 776 743
600
750 817
857
Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands)
+5%
Ports
2012 Business Mix (In Carloads)
Agricultural 14%
Autos 45%
Intermodal 24% Industrial
10%
Chemicals 6%
Coal 1%
+9%
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Mexico Foreign Direct Investment FDI Announcements
Sources: Banco de Mexico, Maquila Portal
2012 FDI Announcements > $500M (With projected opening dates)
Nissan, Aguascalientes (4Q 2013) $2.6b
Ford, Hermosillo $1.3b
Audi, San Jose Chiapa (2016) $1.3b
Chrysler/Fiat, Saltillo $1.0b
Honda, Celaya (1Q 2014) $800m
Mazda, Salamanca (1Q 2014) $650m
Gerdau Corsa, Hidalgo $600m
Caterpillar, Monterrey $500m
Unilever (different locations in MX ) $500m
2012 Actual FDI = $13.4b USD
2013 Forecast FDI = $33.4b USD
Stars indicate new vehicle production facilities.
Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR)
2013 FDI Announcements > $450M Techint, Nuevo Leon $1.0b
Volkswagen, Puebla $700m
GM (Silao/San Luis Potosi/Toluca) $690m
Honda, Celaya $470m
Bosch, EM & Chihuahua $460m
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Highway Conversions • Comprehensive Network
– ~7 - 9 Million Domestic Truck-Load Conversion Opportunity
– ~2.5 - 3 Million Truckload Opportunity Originating from Mexico
• Strong Value Proposition – Competitive Service at an
Affordable Price – Environmental Friendliness
• Truck’s Traditional Advantage is Eroding – Regulations & Rising Costs – Highway Congestion &
Infrastructure
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
6%
3% 1%
4%
Flat
3% 4%
-3%
3%
1%
Flat
8%
-8%
-5%
Volume Growth (Qtr-over-Qtr Volume Growth)
International Domestic
14
0
5
10
15
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2017E
Globalization Results in Import Growth
Source: PIERS, HIS, Drewry
Actual Industry Forecasts
• Industry forecasts assume continued growth going forward • West Coast Share of Transpacific Imports has averaged ~70% for past 4 yrs
West Coast Share 70.5% 70.7% 70.1% 69.2% 67-70%
Previous Peak (2007)
U.S. Transpacific Import Volume (TEUs in Millions)
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Panama Canal Impact Seattle/ Tacoma 14 Days*
LA/Long Beach
13 Days*
NJ/ NY 27 Days*
Norfolk 28 Days*
Savannah 29 Days*
Favors West Coast
Coast Neutral
Favors East
Coast
Panama Canal
*Average transit days from Shanghai
• Most Freight Favors the West Coast – Time-Sensitive Freight
• Cost of Panama Canal Expansion • East Coast Investments Required
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Investments Support Intermodal Growth Santa Teresa, NM
• Supports Sunset Route from LA to El Paso
• Close proximity to Maquiladoras in Northern Mexico
Strategic focal point for freight moving across the U.S. and the border
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Pricing Opportunity Strong Fundamentals Continue
• Value is the Key to Future Price Improvement
• Balanced Portfolio Provides Flexibility for Repricing as Value Grows
• 2014 Legacy “Light” Year, Core Pricing Above Inflation
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
6% 6%
4.5% 5% 4.5% 4.5% 4% 4% 3.5%
Core Pricing Gains
Contracts > 1 Year
40% Contracts < 1 Year
30%
Tariffs 30%
Balanced Revenue Portfolio
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Est
$3.1
$2.5 $2.5
$3.2
$3.7 ~$3.6
10.2%
Capital Investments Supported by Returns
• Improved Profitability Drives Strong Cash Flow
• … Supports Investments that must meet high return hurdles
• … Supports Core Pricing that Drives Continued Investment
• Capital Spend to ~16% - 17% of Revenue for 2013 - 2017
ROIC*
Investments* & Returns** (Capital in Billions)
12.4%
** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.
14.0%
New Locomotive Purchases/Leases
Capital (excl Locos & PTC)
Positive Train Control
* Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital.
$3.15(excl PTC)
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Delivering Value to Shareholders
Future Allocation Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions) ( )
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$1.5
$3.0 $3.0 $4.2
$5.7
$7.1 $8.6
Declared Dividend Per Share (cents)
2007
4x +
2011 2012 2013
Dividends: • 3Q 2013 Declared Dividend increase of
14.5% • New Dividend Payout Target Range of
30 - 35% on a declared basis
Share Repurchases: • Continue Opportunistic Buying Approach • 5.4 Million Shares Remaining in Current
Authorization (as of 9/30/2013) 3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q
17.5
38 47.5
60 69
79
2013* *Through September
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Union Pacific’s Future Prospects
• Market-Based Pricing at Reinvestible Levels
• Focus on Productivity, Efficiency, and Innovation
• Leverage Strengths of Diverse Franchise
• Invest to Strengthen and Enhance Network
• Drive Increased Profitability & Shareholder Returns
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Question & Answer Session