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1 Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 Rob Knight, CFO November 14, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to future economic improvement and its ability to capitalize on any future economic improvement; provide safe, efficient and reliable service; maintain agility; and generate value for its customers and shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

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Page 1: Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 · 2013-11-13 · 1 Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

1

Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013

Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013

2

Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not

statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to future economic improvement and its ability to capitalize on any future economic improvement; provide safe, efficient and reliable service; maintain agility; and generate value for its customers and shareholders. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.

Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).

Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

Page 2: Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 · 2013-11-13 · 1 Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

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Portland

Los Angeles

Calexico

Seattle

Brownsville

Houston New Orleans

Twin Cities

Nogales El Paso

Duluth

Oakland Omaha

Denver Salt Lake City

Kansas City

Chicago

Memphis

St. Louis

Fastest Growing States

Ports

Borders & Interchange

C

To/From Asia

Portla

Oaklala

To/From Asia

To Europe, South America

and Africa

Industrial 16%

Agricultural 19%

Chemicals 15%

asosEagle Pass Laredo

Dallas

Eastport

a

Industriiiiialallllll 16%

Agricuuuuuuultltltltltlturuuuuuuu al19%

ChChChChChemememememicicicicici alaallaaalss15%%

Intermodal 20%

Coal 20%

Autos 9%

Industrial 18%

Agricultural 17%

Chemicals 16%

Freight Revenue $19.7B in 2012

• Diverse Business Mix • Fastest Growing States • Broad Port Access • Interchange Traffic &

Border Crossings

The Strength of a Unique Franchise

4

2013 YTD Record Results Through September

Positives • Best-Ever Records

– Earnings – Operating Revenue – Operating Income – Operating Ratio

• Franchise Diversity Challenges • Coal & Grain Volumes

2011 2012 2013

$4.74

$6.08 $6.88

Best-Ever YTD

+13%

Earnings Per Share

2011 2012 2013

71.6

68.0 66.5

Operating Ratio (%)

Best-Ever YTD

(1.5) pts

Page 3: Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 · 2013-11-13 · 1 Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

5

2013 Volume Drivers

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

7-Day Monthly Carloadings (000s)

2006 @192

2010 @172

January December

2011 @176.5

2009 @152

Coal

Automotive

YTD 2013 Volume Growth* (vs YTD 2012)

Agricultural

TOTAL

Flat

+5%

-6%

-9%

+3%

-1%

+6%

Industrial Products

Chemicals

Intermodal

2012 @ 176

*Through November 10, 2013

2013 YTD * down 1%

6

Coal Trends

Electricity Generation*

*Through November 10, 2013

50% 50% 48% 48% 47%

38% 40%

17% 20% 19% 21% 20%

27%

30% Apr ’12: 32%

2007 2009 2011 2013

% from coal % from natural gas

*U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – through September 2013

Total U.S. Electrical Generation (thousand megawatt hrs/day)

Natural Gas Prices* (NYMEX)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$2.71 $2.30

$2.49

$2.96 $2.92 $3.35

$3.77 $4.07

$3.64 $3.62 $3.65

2013 2012

*NG1 Futures Price

Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings)

Southern Powder River Basin

74%

Other 13%

1Q 4Q

Southern Powder River Basin

74%

25,000

29,000

33,000

37,000

41,000

45,000

2011 2012

2Q 3Q

2013*

(19%) Flat

(7%)

WY Blizzard (14%)

4QTD

• 2013 Contract Loss • Mild Weather • Electricity Consumption • Natural Gas Prices • Wyoming Blizzard

Page 4: Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 · 2013-11-13 · 1 Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

7

Agricultural Trends

Est. U.S. Crop Production & Exports* (vs. 2012) (vs. 2012)

30%

-6% 7%

92%

9% 10%

Corn Wheat Soybeans

Export Production

*Source: USDA, November 2013

UP 2012 Volume Mix

Grain Products

34%

Grain 40%

Food & Refrigerated

26%

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

AAR Weekly Grain Carloads

2013*

2012

*Through November 10, 2013

Grain (Year-over-Year Volume Change)

4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

-22% -17% -20%

-13% -16%

-20%

-29%

1% Export Domestic

8

Permian Basin

Marcellus

Eagle Ford

Niobrara

Bakken

Canadian Crude

Current UP Origins Current UP Destinations Connecting Railroad Origins

Utica

Barnett

$105 Brent

$105 Brent

$105 Brent

$98 LLS

$76

$78

$90

$91

TOTAL U.S. Crude Oil** (August 2013)

BPD MM

Consumption* 15.8 Imports 8.1 Production 7.5

Crude prices as of 11/8/13 Sources: Plains Posting, Argus Research, Platts, North Dakota Pipeline Authority

*Refinery & Blender Net Inputs **Supply & disposition categories not depicted: Adjustments and Inventory Changes

$55

Union Pacific Crude-by-Rail

West Coast (PADD 5)** (August 2013)

BPD MM

Consumption* 2.4 Imports 1.3 Production (excl. AK) 0.6 Alaska Production 0.4

Gulf Coast (PADD 3)** (August 2013)

BPD MM

Consumption* 8.2 Imports 3.8 Production 4.5

Cushing $94

$101 ANS

Page 5: Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 · 2013-11-13 · 1 Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

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Shale -- It’s More Than Just Crude Oil

2013 YTD* Vol (000s) % Inc Frac Sand 142.2 22 Pipe 27.2 3 Crude Oil 131.0 36

4.5% of Total Volumes

Fertilizer Production Plant Construction/Expansions to potentially displace some imports

Polyethylene Expansions More than $10B of investment announcements (many in the Gulf)

Refined Petroleum Products Residual Fuel Oil & LP Gas

Manufacturing Expansions Including Steel and Plastics

Pipeline Construction UP participates in moving pipe shipments to build pipelines

Potential U.S. Economic Development

Frac Sand An average horizontal frac job uses between 30 to 50 railcars of materials per well

Pipe for Drilling Each well uses between 3 to 5 carloads of drilling pipe

Crude-by-Rail Bakken to Gulf represents majority of current business.

Union Pacific

*Through September 30, 2013

10

Shreveport

Ft. Worth

Dallas

Houston New Orleans

San Antonio

Brownsville

Existing Plants New Plant/Expansions

Expanding Chemical Franchise Texas/Louisiana Investments

Formosa Plastics Corp. • >$1.7 Billion investment in cracker

and additional capacity projects. • Cracker capacity: 800,000 mt/year • Estimated completion in 2016

Dow Chemical Co. • $1.7 Billion investment in cracker

and additional capacity projects. • Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2017

Chevron Phillips Chemical Co. • $5 Billion investment in cracker &

additional capacity projects. • Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2017

k

Gruppo Mossi & Ghisolfi • Investment in new PET & PTA plants. • Capacity: 1.0 & 1.2 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2016

Source: Public Announcements

Exxon Mobil Corp. • Investment in steam cracker. • Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2016

Investment Announcements Total Over $10 Billion

Page 6: Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 · 2013-11-13 · 1 Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

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UP Positioned for Mexico Growth Opportunities Strong Investments – Foreign and Domestic

Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR)

UP Interchange Points

New Industrial Investment

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

708 764 776 743

600

750 817

857

Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands)

+5%

Ports

2012 Business Mix (In Carloads)

Agricultural 14%

Autos 45%

Intermodal 24% Industrial

10%

Chemicals 6%

Coal 1%

+9%

12

Mexico Foreign Direct Investment FDI Announcements

Sources: Banco de Mexico, Maquila Portal

2012 FDI Announcements > $500M (With projected opening dates)

Nissan, Aguascalientes (4Q 2013) $2.6b

Ford, Hermosillo $1.3b

Audi, San Jose Chiapa (2016) $1.3b

Chrysler/Fiat, Saltillo $1.0b

Honda, Celaya (1Q 2014) $800m

Mazda, Salamanca (1Q 2014) $650m

Gerdau Corsa, Hidalgo $600m

Caterpillar, Monterrey $500m

Unilever (different locations in MX ) $500m

2012 Actual FDI = $13.4b USD

2013 Forecast FDI = $33.4b USD

Stars indicate new vehicle production facilities.

Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR)

2013 FDI Announcements > $450M Techint, Nuevo Leon $1.0b

Volkswagen, Puebla $700m

GM (Silao/San Luis Potosi/Toluca) $690m

Honda, Celaya $470m

Bosch, EM & Chihuahua $460m

Page 7: Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 · 2013-11-13 · 1 Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

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Highway Conversions • Comprehensive Network

– ~7 - 9 Million Domestic Truck-Load Conversion Opportunity

– ~2.5 - 3 Million Truckload Opportunity Originating from Mexico

• Strong Value Proposition – Competitive Service at an

Affordable Price – Environmental Friendliness

• Truck’s Traditional Advantage is Eroding – Regulations & Rising Costs – Highway Congestion &

Infrastructure

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

6%

3% 1%

4%

Flat

3% 4%

-3%

3%

1%

Flat

8%

-8%

-5%

Volume Growth (Qtr-over-Qtr Volume Growth)

International Domestic

14

0

5

10

15

20

2009 2010 2011 2012 2017E

Globalization Results in Import Growth

Source: PIERS, HIS, Drewry

Actual Industry Forecasts

• Industry forecasts assume continued growth going forward • West Coast Share of Transpacific Imports has averaged ~70% for past 4 yrs

West Coast Share 70.5% 70.7% 70.1% 69.2% 67-70%

Previous Peak (2007)

U.S. Transpacific Import Volume (TEUs in Millions)

Page 8: Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 · 2013-11-13 · 1 Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

15

Panama Canal Impact Seattle/ Tacoma 14 Days*

LA/Long Beach

13 Days*

NJ/ NY 27 Days*

Norfolk 28 Days*

Savannah 29 Days*

Favors West Coast

Coast Neutral

Favors East

Coast

Panama Canal

*Average transit days from Shanghai

• Most Freight Favors the West Coast – Time-Sensitive Freight

• Cost of Panama Canal Expansion • East Coast Investments Required

16

Investments Support Intermodal Growth Santa Teresa, NM

• Supports Sunset Route from LA to El Paso

• Close proximity to Maquiladoras in Northern Mexico

Strategic focal point for freight moving across the U.S. and the border

Page 9: Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 · 2013-11-13 · 1 Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

17

Pricing Opportunity Strong Fundamentals Continue

• Value is the Key to Future Price Improvement

• Balanced Portfolio Provides Flexibility for Repricing as Value Grows

• 2014 Legacy “Light” Year, Core Pricing Above Inflation

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6% 6%

4.5% 5% 4.5% 4.5% 4% 4% 3.5%

Core Pricing Gains

Contracts > 1 Year

40% Contracts < 1 Year

30%

Tariffs 30%

Balanced Revenue Portfolio

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

18

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Est

$3.1

$2.5 $2.5

$3.2

$3.7 ~$3.6

10.2%

Capital Investments Supported by Returns

• Improved Profitability Drives Strong Cash Flow

• … Supports Investments that must meet high return hurdles

• … Supports Core Pricing that Drives Continued Investment

• Capital Spend to ~16% - 17% of Revenue for 2013 - 2017

ROIC*

Investments* & Returns** (Capital in Billions)

12.4%

** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

14.0%

New Locomotive Purchases/Leases

Capital (excl Locos & PTC)

Positive Train Control

* Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital.

$3.15(excl PTC)

Page 10: Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 · 2013-11-13 · 1 Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

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Delivering Value to Shareholders

Future Allocation Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions) ( )

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

$1.5

$3.0 $3.0 $4.2

$5.7

$7.1 $8.6

Declared Dividend Per Share (cents)

2007

4x +

2011 2012 2013

Dividends: • 3Q 2013 Declared Dividend increase of

14.5% • New Dividend Payout Target Range of

30 - 35% on a declared basis

Share Repurchases: • Continue Opportunistic Buying Approach • 5.4 Million Shares Remaining in Current

Authorization (as of 9/30/2013) 3Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

17.5

38 47.5

60 69

79

2013* *Through September

20

Union Pacific’s Future Prospects

• Market-Based Pricing at Reinvestible Levels

• Focus on Productivity, Efficiency, and Innovation

• Leverage Strengths of Diverse Franchise

• Invest to Strengthen and Enhance Network

• Drive Increased Profitability & Shareholder Returns

Page 11: Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 · 2013-11-13 · 1 Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference 2013 Rob Knight, CFO – November 14, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation

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Question & Answer Session