gold/silver market crash – april 2013 daryl montgomery april 18, 2013 copyright 2013, all rights...
TRANSCRIPT
Gold/Silver Market Crash – April 2013
Daryl MontgomeryApril 18, 2013
Copyright 2013, All Rights Reserved
The contents of this presentation are not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Prelude to a Crash• Silver peaks at $48.70/oz in April 2011.• Gold peaks at 1921.15/oz in Sept 2011.• Silver had been declining for 24 months.• Gold had been declining for 19 months. • Sharp price after long decline indicates bottom. • A sharp drop on high volume is called
capitulation = All the sellers get shaken out of the market.
Timeline of Crash Up to Friday• Goldman Sachs tells clients to short gold futures
on Wed, April 10th. Target price $1390. Spot gold drops $22.
• On Thurs April 11th, New York Times has major article saying gold has lost its luster. Spot gold goes up slightly.
• On Friday, gold gaps down and breaks $1540 support, but initially holds at support at $1524. Trades as low as $1482.
• Gold down $72.70 and Silver down $1.45 on Friday. Huge volume spike. Very oversold.
GLD 10Day/15Minutes Friday
50, 200-Unit Moving Averages; RSI, MACD, RSI
SLV 10Day/15Minutes Friday
50, 200-Unit Moving Averages; RSI, MACD, RSI
GDX 10Day/15Minutes Friday
50, 200-Unit Moving Averages; RSI, MACD, RSI
GDXJ 10Day/15Minutes Friday
50, 200-Unit Moving Averages; RSI, MACD, RSI
GLD One-Year Daily Friday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages; RSI, MACD, DMI
SLV One-Year Daily Friday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages; RSI, MACD, DMI
GDX One-Year Daily Friday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages; RSI, MACD, DMI
GDXJ One-Year Daily Friday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages; RSI, MACD, DMI
GLD Monthly with Williams%R Friday
10,40,65-Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
SLV Monthly with Williams%R Friday
10,40,65-Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
GDX Monthly with Williams%R Friday
10,40,65-Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
GDXJ Monthly with Williams%R Friday
10,40,65-Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
GLD 10Day/15Minutes Friday
50, 200-Unit Moving Averages; RSI, MACD, RSI
SLV 10Day/15Minutes Friday
50, 200-Unit Moving Averages; RSI, MACD, RSI
GDX 10Day/15Minutes Friday
50, 200-Unit Moving Averages; RSI, MACD, RSI
GDXJ 10Day/15Minutes Friday
50, 200-Unit Moving Averages; RSI, MACD, RSI
GLD Monthly with Williams%R Friday
10,40,65-Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
GLD One-Year Daily Friday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages; RSI, MACD, DMI
SLV One-Year Daily Friday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages; RSI, MACD, DMI
GDX One-Year Daily Friday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages; RSI, MACD, DMI
GDXJ One-Year Daily Friday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages; RSI, MACD, DMI
SLV Monthly with Williams%R Friday
10,40,65-Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
GDX Monthly with Williams%R Friday
10,40,65-Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
GDXJ Monthly with Williams%R Friday
10,40,65-Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Timeline of Crash• Friday night: gold bug panic sets in. Aden
Sisters recommend cutting PM holdings in half.
• Gold/silver gap down on Monday. Gold drops through several levels of support until it hold around $1350.
• Gold down $124.40 and silver $3.16.• Overnight bottom: gold 1345, silver 21.95. • Massive volume spike and technicals reach
total wash out levels.
GLD 10Day/15Minutes Monday
50, 200-Unit Moving Averages; RSI, MACD, RSI
SLV 10Day/15Minutes Monday
50, 200-Unit Moving Averages; RSI, MACD, RSI
GDX 10Day/15Minutes Monday
50, 200-Unit Moving Averages; RSI, MACD, RSI
GDXJ 10Day/15Minutes Monday
50, 200-Unit Moving Averages; RSI, MACD, RSI
GLD Six-Months Daily Volume Monday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages with Volume
SLV Six-Months Daily Volume Monday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages with Volume
GDX Six-Months Daily Volume Monday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages with Volume
GDXJ Six-Months Daily Volume Monday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages with Volume
GLD One-Year Daily Monday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages; RSI, MACD, DMI
SLV One-Year Daily Monday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages; RSI, MACD, DMI
GDX One-Year Daily Monday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages; RSI, MACD, DMI
GDXJ One-Year Daily Monday
50, 200, 325-DayMoving Averages; RSI, MACD, DMI
GOLD ETF: GLD 5-Years Weekly Monday
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Silver ETF SLV 5-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
Mining ETF GDX 5-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
Mining ETF GDXJ 5-Years Weekly
10, 40, 65-Week Moving Averages and RSI, DMI, MACD
GLD Monthly with Bollinger Bands Monday
10,40,65,80-Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
SLV Monthly with Bollinger Bands Monday
10,40,65,80-Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
GDX Monthly with Bollinger Bands Monday
10,40,65,80-Month Moving Averages, RSI, DMI, MACD
The Day After the Crash
• Gold continues dropping after Boston Marathon terrorist incident (strange).
• The CFTC reduces allowed leverage for precious metals trading.
• Goldman Sachs says market hasn’t bottomed.• Crackpot predictions surface including one
that predicts gold will drop to $800.• More reasonable predictions surface given
valid reasons why gold could drop to $1250 to $1300 (production costs).