good oil conference
TRANSCRIPT
1
Good OilConference
September 2007
O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D
2
Overview
Growth driven by commercialistion of discovered 1bnboe gas and associated liquids
Significant progress on LNG and other options
Core business progressing wellPNG production sustained for 2+ yearsContribution growing from Middle East portfolioCosts tightly controlled but operations impacted by equipment delivery delays
Exploration programme largest everPNG just startingMiddle East 5 from 12
3
Oil SearchWhere We Operate
3
4
World Class Safety PerformanceBetter than Industry Peers
Total Recordable Incidents (TRIs) 1998 – 2006
TR
I /
1,0
00
,00
0 H
ou
rs
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2006
APPEAOSH OGP
8.5
10.6 10.7
5.8
1.7
4.7
2.42.31
9.4
Oil Search
International Companies
12.7
9.1 9.3
8.2 7.87.0 7.3
9.8
5.2
Australian Companies8.3
6.8
3.054.0 2.92
5
Underlying Operationsare sound
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1H 04 1H 05 1H06 1H07
US$m
Revenue
EBITDAX
Net Profit
170.9
233.4
323.3305.4
130.5167.4
276.8
249.8
41.7
63.9
115.3
46.9
242.2
188.3
136.1
276.8
266.9
Operating Cash Flow
EBITDAX down 9.7% on prior first half* 1H06 NPAT excludes profit of US$258.5 million on sale of licence interests to AGL
6
Some Cost Pressures
Other Prod’n Opex
7.08.7Net Corp Costs
1.90.0FX Losses
56.4
8.20.1
28.48.02.8
US$’m
1H07
46.5Total
7.20.1
- Oil- Hides
22.25.92.3
Field Costs- Oil: PNG- Oil: MENA- Hides
US$’m
1H06
FY2006 1H07
PNG Oil FieldCosts per BarrelUS$
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Other FieldOther FieldCosts $2.09Costs $2.09
CoreCoreFieldFieldCostsCosts$4.43$4.43
TariffsTariffs$1.00$1.00
CoreCoreFieldFieldCostsCosts$4.18$4.18
TariffsTariffs$0.82$0.82
Other FieldOther FieldCosts $1.69Costs $1.69
8
Core PNG field costs per barrel up 6% on 2006 levels
7
Since 2002, OSH has created substantial value for shareholders
Source: OSH Analysis
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07
Oil Search
Santos
OriginWoodside
ROC Oil
Sh
are
an
d i
nd
ices
pri
ces
(reb
ase
d t
o 1
00
)
ASX 100 Top Quartile by Annualised TSR (1 Jul 02 - 17 Jan 07)
242%
125%
83% 82%67% 60% 58%
47% 45% 42% 38% 38% 37% 37% 36% 36% 35% 35% 32% 32% 32% 31% 31% 30% 30%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Paladin
Resou
rces
Zinife
xWorl
eyPars
ons
Caltex
Austra
liaBab
cock
& Brow
nOxia
na
Allco Fin
ance
Group
Promina
Grou
pRink
er Grou
p
QBE Ins
uranc
e Grou
pOil S
earch
Macqu
arie C
ommun
icatio
nsMay
ne Ph
arma
Compu
tersh
are
Macqu
arie G
oodm
an Grou
p
Sigma P
harm
aceu
ticals
OneStee
lAlin
taSim
s Grou
pSon
ic Hea
lthca
re
Macqu
arie A
irport
sBlue
scop
e Steel
Newcre
st Mini
ng
A.B.C. Lea
rning
Centre
s
ASX
8
Strategy for Growth
Deliver maximum value from existing production assets (production and cost focus)
Extract value from existing discovered gas and liquids resource
Create value from exploration success and acquisitions to build production base prior to gas development
9
DELIVER VALUE
10
Oil Search Net Production
Kutubu Moran Gobe Main SE Gobe Hides
Nabrajah SEM Area A ERQ
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
stb
/d
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
+23%+23%
+25%+25%+6%+6%
+10%+10%
2006
PostPostAGL AGL salesale
2007F 2008F 2009F
11
Field Development Drilling Activity
Usano:2007-8 development
3-5 wells
SE Gobe:2008 development:
1 well potential
Kutubu:2008 development:
2-3 wells
Agogo:2008 development:
1 well potential
Moran:2008 development:
3 wells
12
Usano MainBlock
Usano EastBlock
SE noseKutubu
Field
Arakubi
IDTG
UDTC
UDTG
UDTB
UDTF
UDTD
UDTE
UDT3A pad
UDT2 padUDT1 pad
Arakubi 1 Pad Location
UDT7
Usano Development
An under-developed field with significant infill potentialUDT 7 performing above expectation4 wells likely in 2008Success at Arakubi could positively impact Usano east
UDTJ
UDTH
Potential Usano well
Likely Usano well 2007-8
13
Kutubu infill well
Potential Appraisal well
Kutubu Development
Possible IDT-11twin (Iagifu target)
Remapping and simulation support a Hedinia Digimu infill well
IDT 23ST2: strong performance indicates potential for at least one additional well +/-appraisal wells
IDT 23ST2
14
PNG Oil Production Outlook (gross bopd)
Expect to continue to invest in PNG fields, targeting to maintain gross production around 50,000 bopd through to 2009Requires investment of approx US$100m pa net to OSH
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Oil
Pro
du
ctio
n (
stb
/d
)
0
Jan-
2000
Jan-
2001
Jan-
2002
Jan-
2003
Jan-
2004
Jan-
2005
Jan-
2006
Jan-
2007
Jan-
2008
Jan-
2009
Jan-
2010
Jan-
2011
Jan-
2012
Jan-
2013
OSH AssumesField Operatorship
Historical Production
Added over 34mmbblsin production 2003-06
Decline before Oil Search
P50
P90
Forecast Base Production
P10
15
Egypt Area A Production
Oil Search shares in production above specified base production levelSince August, have been in ‘sharing’territory. This result has been achieved even with a 2 month delay to the start of the development drilling programme, due to the unavailability of a suitable drilling rigExploration targets being tested in 4Q07No reserves booked for Area A to date
0
Jan-
2007
Apr-2
007
Jul-2
007
Oct
-200
7Ja
n-20
08Apr
-200
8Ju
l-200
8O
ct-2
008
Jan-
2009
Apr-2
009
Jul-2
009
Oct
-200
9Ja
n-20
10
Gro
ss O
il P
rod
uct
ion
(b
op
d)
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
P50
16
Yemen Nabrajah Production
Nabrajah-15
Nabrajah-16
Nab15
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Jan-
2007
Apr-2
007
Jul-2
007
Oct
-200
7Ja
n-20
08Apr
-200
8Ju
l-200
8O
ct-2
008
Jan-
2009
Apr-2
009
Jul-2
009
Oct
-200
9Ja
n-20
10
Gro
ss O
il P
rod
uct
ion
(b
op
d)
P50
Nabrajah-15 well has proven a new terrace/compartment within the fieldField reserves currently being evaluated by NSA. Anticipate an increase in certified reserves
17
EXTRACT VALUE
18
Gas Commercialisation
Strong momentum building for world scale LNG project operated by ExxonMobil. Oil Search interest ~ 30%
Studies ongoing with BG Group
Work underscoring viability of PNG LNG development
Strong market demand continues
Major interest in participation at various levels
Capital costs well understood
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PNG’s Competitive Advantage
Quality and location of resource makes PNG very competitive in project line up for a 2012 – 2014 development timetable
Advantages of LNG from PNG Highlands:Substantial certified reserve base, sufficient to underwrite development
High liquids content improves economics
Clean gas, minimal impurities (CO2), no additional processing capex required
Onshore, with existing infrastructure base (Kutubu & liquids pipeline)
Environmental approvals well advanced
Excellent location to exploit Asian markets
Competitive labour costs relative to Australia
Favourable fiscal regime with strong Government support
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Comparative LNG Pricing
Source: FACTS Global Energy
NWS Traditional Contracting
Crude Oil Parity
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
LNG ($/mmbtu)
JCC ($/b)
NWS Recent Contracting
21
Angore
Barikewa
Uramu
Pandora
Juha
Kimu Iehi
Korobosea
Hides
Key Gas Fields in PNG
Hides / Angore Fields (OSH –27.5%/52.5%)
Hides – 5.3 tcf of 2P resource, 3P upside to 10 tcfAngore ~ 1.2 tcf
Kutubu Complex Fields (OSH -60.0%)
~ 1.5 tcf plus liquids, largely developedKey strategic resource and infrastructure hub, high value
Juha Field (OSH 31.5%)Post Juha 4 & 5, 2P resource ~ 1 tcf, subject to review of J-4 results Liquids rich
Other fields include:Kimu – 0.8 tcf (OSH –60.7%)Barikewa – 0.8 tcf (OSH –42.5%)Uramu – 0.4 tcf (OSH –49.6%)Appraisal drilling required to firm up resource size
Korobosea gas prospect (potential resource 0.5+ tcf), to be drilled 4Q07 (OSH – 70%)
22
LNG with ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil Pre-FEED review progressing well - strong momentum build
Kutubu/Agogo/Moran/Gobe Main participants have joined Hides/Angore/Juha JVs in LNG studies. OSH’s funding share has increased to 36.6%. Interest post Government back-in/unitisationexpected to be ~ 30%
Studies on technical aspects have been expanded. Number of different configurations eg one large train (5 – 6.5 mtpa) or two smaller (3.2 mtpa) trains, plus different technologies, are under review
Plant location being finalised
Negotiation of fiscal terms expected to accelerate in September when new Government is in place
Working towards agreement on Unitisation framework, Joint Development Agreement
Capex estimates of between US$9-10bn for 6 – 7 mtpa of capacity appear to be robust post Pluto
Timetable - target end 2007/early 2008 to enter FEED, 12-18 months to FID, mid-2013 for first deliveries
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Full foldbelt 6.3 mtpaExxonMobil LNG option
Kopi
Kutubu & Agogo
Gobe
Hides & Angore
Juha
Port Moresby
Estimated capital cost (US$bn):
- Upstream & Pipeline 5.0
- LNG Plant 4.5
Total 9.5
Reserves required (20 yrs): 7.7 tcf
Configuration and cost estimates being refined in pre-FEED work
Valve & Pigging Station
311 km 32-inch Hides-Kopi pipeline
250 mmscfd (nominal)
960 mmscfd Conditioning Plant
66 km 14-inch gas line
8-inch condensate line
~300 km 32/34-inch subsea gas line to LNG
Plant at Cape Possession or Port Moresby
75km
24
Other Complementary Gas Activities
Core focus to develop ancillary gas business complementary to LNG
Active programme to secure and/or find further certifiable reservesReviewing options for early pipeline development in conjunction with PNG GovernmentExploration and appraisal drilling at Korobosea (0.5+ tcf) and appraisal at Barikewa (0.8+ tcf) to complement existing discoveries Kimu (0.8tcf) and Uramu (0.4tcf)
Discussions with petrochemical developers continue with strong support
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CREATE VALUE
26
Korobosea
Juha
Barikewa
Arakubi
Mananda Attic
NW Paua
Cobra
PNG Exploration
Oil - Remaining 2007 programme testing ~40 mmbbl net risked reserves
Gas – exploration/appraisal to add reserves to support commercialisation projects
PNG 2007 exploration budget US$120m net
Continued seismic for gas and oil exploration/appraisal, in Highlands, Forelands and Offshore
Offshore licence bid submitted in April 2007
Active programme to optimise interests in existing licences and new venture opportunities
27
Juha Update
Juha 5 well confirms GWC for Juha main poolJuha 4ST1 proves separate pool to the eastAwaiting analysis of fluid composition and resource base2P resource base likely to be maintainedDevelopment options being assessed
56.0ExxonMobil
12.5Merlin Petroleum
31.5Oil Search
WI %PRL 2
Juha-1X
Juha-2X
Juha-3X
10km
PRL2
Juha 4ST1
Juha 5
28
PDL 2 - Arakubi
14.5*ExxonMobil
11.9AGL
6.8Merlin Petroleum
6.8PRK
60.0Oil Search
WI %PDL 2
Located 2km from infrastructure, connected by roadMean reserves ~18 mmstb Well spudded late August – approx 60 days to TD
Line PN04-411Depth migration
Usano 2x block
UDT4 block
Arakubi structure
Reserves: 18 mmstbCOS: 35%
* ExxonMobil did not participate in initial Arakubi well but will be involved in re-drill
APF
Moro
Ridge CampCPF
SE Mananda
Moran
Paua
Kutubu
LakeKutubu
Agogo
ARAKUBI
PDL2
10km
29
PPL 233 – NW Paua
47.5%Esso Highlands
52.5Oil Search
WI %PPL 233
Highly prospective structure adjacent to MoranDigimu target with Toro secondaryWide range of reservesPartially constrained by Paua 1X well (1996)Important test of ‘next trend’New seismic acquired in 2005Site construction complete Oil Search operating on behalf of EssoTo be drilled after Arakubi
Reserves: 40-120mmstb (depends on column height and number of reservoirs)
COS: 24%
Line PN04-411Depth migration
Usano 2x block
UDT4 block
Arakubi structure
APF
Moro
Ridge CampCPF
SE Mananda
Moran
Paua
Kutubu
LakeKutubu
Agogo
NW PAUA
PDL2
PPL233
PPL219
PDL5
10km
30
PPL240 - Korobosea
10%Gedd
90.0Oil Search
WI %PPL240
Korobosea well will test prospect along trend from Kimu gas discoveryProspect is well defined by seismic (9 lines of good quality)Reservoir known to be effectiveMost likely phase is gas but there is a chance of a late oil charge – evidence in Kimu, Koko, BujonGas resources 0.3-0.6 tcf(mean) in Alene reservoir
Reserves: 0.3-0.6 tcf (Alene Sst only, possible upside in Toro)
COS: 19%
KIMU
KOROBOSEA
PPL240
PRL08
10km
31
Yemen Exploration
Al Harsh-2
NABRAJAH
Ataq-1
Reeb-1 currently drilling (75mmbbl, COS=21%)
Prospect B(~10mmbbl COS=20%)
West Ghobata-1 (20mmbbl, COS=23%)
Dahgah-1 (~10mmbbl, COS=40%)
Thoub-1 (~15mmbbl, COS=52%)
BLOCK 7
BLOCK 3
BLOCK 15
BLOCK 35
BLOCK 74
BLOCK 49
BLOCK 43
ShirTerminal
Remaining 2007 Activity5 Exploration Wells testing total ~130mmbbl1 Nabrajah Appraisal400+sqkm 3D in Block 3
3D survey ongoing
50km
32
3 wells drilled to date3 discoveries at 4 stratigraphic levels
Development plans submitted for Shahd and Ghard
Production in 4Q 07No reserve additions booked to dateFurther 3D seismic acquired in 2007 and planned in 2008Rana :
Reserves ~ 10-15 mmbblDST’s 2- 4 planned
Extensive prospect inventory. Next wells :
Raheek ~ 8-12 mmbbl (COS = 35%)Salma ~ 100 mmbbl (COS = 15%)
Egypt - East Ras Qattara
Rana-1Discovery
Ghard-1Discovery
Shahd-1Discovery
Raheek-1 to follow Rana, then Salma Prospect
5km
33
Strategic Review
Company has embarked on major Strategic Review, focussing on:
Maximising value from existing oil fieldsExtended field life managementOil and gas operational interface and value impactOperational cost and efficiencies
Commercialising gas through LNG development and ancillary in-country gas projects
Review project optimisation and long term positioningResource/reserve build
Exploration and New Ventures focus, production and value build filling in the production gap to first gasMENA value crystallisation
Developing the organisation to deliverInitial results at year end
34
Outlook
35
Outlook for 2007Operational
Production expected to be between 9.5 – 10.0 mmboe
Kutubu and Moran fields performing well, but no new development wells expected onstream in PNG in 2007. Focus in 2008
Rising production from MENA (Nabrajah, Area A, ERQ) and contribution from NW Moran will offset mature field declines
Expanded exploration programme to continue. 2H 2007 programme includes a number of high impact wells (Arakubi, NW Paua, ERQ)
Moving towards FEED decision on LNG – expect all major agreements to be in place/issues resolved by year end
36
Outlook beyond 2007
Rig delays push production into 2009
Seeking to fill production gap pre-LNG through exploration success and/or acquisitions
Includes risked exploration production contribution (firm one year programme)
0
Jan-
2007
Jan-
2009
Jan-
2011
Jan-
2013
Jan-
2015
Oil P
rod
uct
ion
(b
op
d)
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
PNG LNGGas Liquids
PNG LNG Gas
Jan-
2008
Jan-
2010
Jan-
2012
Jan-
2014
PNG Development
PNG Exploration
MENA Exploration
MENA Development
37
Summary
Continuing to generate strong cash flows from operations – underlying business is robust
Commercialising gas resource remains Oil Search’s highest priority – PNG LNG provides attractive returns, progressing steadily with growing momentum
Strategic focus on building business to first gas and positioning for long term multiple gas developments
38
O I L S E A R C H L I M I T E D