Governance and Public Administration challenges and perspectives for peace in DRC

and the Great Lakes Region.

Do the 2006 presidential and parliamentary elections hold the answers?

Joseph Clifford BirungiUN/DESA, September 2006

Overview

• Country features• Poor governance (and poverty) in the

country (Pre)-Colonial CongoJoseph Desiré Mobutu era

• Laurent Desiré Kabila regime and the armed conflict (1996 – 2002)

• Intermediary responsesJoseph Kabila and the transitional government

(2001 up to the present)

• The July 30th 2006 elections and beyond

Interdependence and interrelatedness;

•Politics,

•Democracy,

•Management Administration,

•Conflict

Core themes

Location of the DRC

Democratic Republic of Congo

Features

• >2.3m sq/km , 2nd biggest in Africa• >60 million people, hundreds of ethnic groups

and diversity of languages• Good climate and soils• 12 provinces, increased to 26• 09 neighbors• Natural resources (<1.1m sq/km of equatorial

forests, flora and fauna)

DRC - Natural Resources

Features cont’dHowever, amid this wealth, • High poverty levels (167th of the 177 world’s poor –

UNDP ’05)• Poor infrastructure (roads <5% of 145,000kms tarmac),

comm., water navigation network poor, poor flight safety standards

• Resources have been used to fuel conflict, not get people out of poverty.

• Natural resources play a role in explaining the character of the colonial rule, but post colonial leaders never sought to break the cycle.

• The Congo war 1996-2002 (or regional war?)

Link between poverty and conflict!

Key governance challenges

Inadequacies of governing capacity & crisis of legitimacy of the country

Crisis of insurgency in Eastern provinces & in Katanga

Wider conflagration of conflict involving neighbors

Legitimacy and governing capacity• Government:

Legislature - Mobutu’s MPR, - pluralism of 1990’s? set up to divide and/or co-opt opposition- Kabila I = ban on parties

Executive- One party = MPR = Nation = Mobutu (père de la nation): loose power

strings kept together by Mobutu- Kabila I : Institutional failures pegged to ‘invasion by neighboring countries’Judiciary- Absence of effective policing and judicial structures- Disconnected from centre,: either ceased to exist or act contrary to

mandate

Any separation of ‘powers’?

Legitimacy and governing capacity (cont’d)

Status of the current political-economic terrain• 300 member Transitional assembly, Transitional Gvt and

Courts

• Political parties and civil society

- over 160 political parties, 500 seat national assembly- polarized, politics for economic survival: make ends meet as

much as one can!- Privatization of service delivery: 1300 NGOS (substitute for

state) GONGOs & Briefcase NGOs in predatory relationship

• Economy : electrification, transport, minerals, timber, agriculture

Legitimacy and governing capacity (cont’d)

• Security:

- Colonial ‘forces publiques’of the colonial times: to suppress natives

- Mobutu’s patronized army, poorly trained,predatory relationship with government

- FARDC characterized by pre-2003 command structures. Expectations?

- Local militia (self-help/group solidarity), ex-FAZ, PMCs

- Foreign armed groups (carry out cultivation, trade, mining and provide protection of locals!

- About 20,000 strong poorly equipped, trained and remunerated police force

Security or insecurity?

Implications: Conflict!• Playing the ethnic card, language and regional divide and rule.

• Disenfranchised population, illiteracy, unemployment, self- help! war?

• Socialized and institutionalized “corruption”

• Implications on national security- command, ‘brassage’, numbers & DDR, child soldiers, SALW, Mai-Mai

• Foreign/dissident armed groups.

- Recruitment of Congolese into foreign armies, eg into ADF, .• Self financing rebellions, terror to the innocent civilians

- Death toll >4million (direct deaths and ‘collateral’ and indirect deaths)• Disease: HIV/AIDS, Malaria, malnutrition (indirect deaths)

The poverty – conflict trap?

Intermediary responses• 1999 Lusaka Peace Agreement (LPA)

Accord among belligerents to address dissidents: to what extent was it addressing internal contradictions

• 2002 Inter-Congolese Dialogue (ICD)Dialogue amongst internal groups fighting government: how inclusive was it?

The Transitional government = 1 + 4 challenges of representation and of building of harmonious relationships

Do these address the underlying contradictions?

Intermediary responses (cont’d)• 2003 Transitional Gvt

The legitimacy of the compromise transitional assembly = LPA and the ICD

Multiple power centers, Tshisekedi - UDPS, Mobutuists, Lumumbists

• Mission of the TGNU-Reunification, pacification-National Reconciliation-National Army-Elections @ all levels-New political dispensation

Evaluation of the success indicators as to the above mission?

Intermediary responses (cont’d)

• International community- MONUC operations: UN’s largest 17,000!- CIAT, EUSEC, EUPOL

• 2006 elections : Opportunity missed? – Transition should have been extended and elections started with local levels to allow emergence of a new leadership from below!

The timing of the high level elections?

DRC elections 30/07/2006Presidential elections

• Joseph Kabila: 45% • Jean-Pierre Bemba: 20%• Antoine Gizenga: 13%• Nzanga Mobutu: 5%• Oscar Kashala: 4%• Turnout: 70%

PARLIAMENT:

• Alliance for the Presidential Majority - APM (Kabila): 169

• Rally of Congolese Nationalists - Renaco (Bemba): 47

• Seats declared 341/500

CEI : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/5315448.stm (05/sept/06

Reflections on elections!• What does the voting pattern say on:

– Kabila’s win in the east vs. claims that Ug & Rw control the east?

– Why Kabila lost capital Kinshasa to Bemba and implications?

– What about the vote by Mobutuists?

– Vote by Lumumbists?

– And the 70% voter turn-out in spite of the long distances to the polling centres and the insecurity?

– The possibility of alliances during the 2nd round: Kabila, Lumumbists, Mobutuists against perceived foreign supported leaders – Bemba (and Ruberwa)?

Congolese are tired of war and want to be well governed, want peace!

Kabila’s elections campaign program (2006 +)

• Peace, democracy and SD in harmony with neighboring countries and Int’l cmnty.

• Economic liberalization

• Human Rights

• A country safer from Regional terrorism

The Long road ahead

• Was conflict caused by not holding elections and are the elections the answer?

• What is the Unity and Reconciliation strategy ?

Is winning the ballot (vote) = winning support?

The Long road ahead (cont’d)• Participative politics (citizen

participation)- Is there a centre from which to devolve the power?- Government capacity to absorb democratic change?- Capacity of locals to man new structures?- Oversight functions? Marginalized minorities and

other social groups?- Political opposition? Etienne Tshisekedi? Election

losers? Civil unrest? Nature of govt response?- Meaning of loss of political power thru elections to the

military factions in the TGNU?

Politics of accommodation or of participation?

The Long road ahead (cont’d)The tribal chiefs

and Mai-Mai militia?

Former

Gen. PadiriMai-Mai’s

Long road ahead (cont’d)• What are the economic dimensions of local conflicts?

• Refugees? IDPs?

• Foreign/Dissident groups – genocidaires and FDLR (Rwanda), LRA, ADF (Uganda) FNL of Burundi? Others to emerge?

• Ex-FAZ, MaiMai militia grps esp in Ituri and Katanga?

• Expiry of MONUC/CIAT mandate vs eventual administrative and security vacuum?

A frozen conflict about to thaw or a peace-building trend?

Way forward

Priority : avoid renewed violence

Focus on:- Constitutional governance- Economic stabilization- Justice and Reconciliation strategy- Security and Judicial reforms- Post conflict recovery and reconstruction

programs

Way forward (cont’d)• DRC: - Link btwn Poverty and Conflict Poverty Reduction Strategy Program Define the parameters of

participative governance, provincial assemblies and below.- Special needs of women, children, vulnerable?- National Reconciliation strategy (ADR, Track II, Traditional

mechanisms?)- Civil Society and Private sector: stakeholder meetings. (The Govt-

CSO and Private sector pyramid. Identify challenges, sort comparative advntgs, mutual responsibilities, early warning, incentives)

- DDRR process vs. DRR (mobilize behavioral change too!)- Pubic Affairs and Central Fiscal Authority? (Unmask self interest,

international networks in resource exploitation, exploit resource wealth for development, not war!)

Way forward (cont’d)Country and region do not lack mechanisms, rather their operationalisation, to address concerns of neighbours

A Regional and Integrated approach- JMC and JPC- IC/GLR- EAC, SADC, COMESA- NEPAD and AU

How do we operationalize the institutional mechanisms?

Way forward (cont’d)• International Support- Support & strengthen sustainable internal capacity building (MONUC, CIAT?)

- Support ADR mechanisms. Track II-Diplomacy- Congo’s stance towards neighbors’ concerns - The issue of dissident forces- Support of push/pull factors in neighboring countries to improve on their governance

- Harmonize World Bank & IDA’s MDRP policy on DDR vs DRC’s CONADER

CONCLUSIONHOW?

Proceed from approximativeand palliative measures that focus on resource exploitation

Tangible, sustainable, verifiable goodgovernance?

Looking for underlying causes !!!

Political will

Systems

Tools