gp in hours diarrhoea no trend below baseline levels ......gp in hours page 6. 6: lower respiratory...

GP In Hours Syndromic Surveillance System:

England

Key messages

During week 1 COVID-19-like, influenza-like illness, and asthma consultations increased slightly, particularly in adults and in London, South East and North West PHE Centres (figures 1, 1a, 1b, 3, 3a, 3b, 11 & 11a).

Please note: COVID-19-like GP consultations presented in this report are currently based on reporting by one GPIH data provider and therefore a smaller population denominator. All other indicators remain unaffected. Note: during the COVID-19 pandemic, patients with COVID-19 symptoms are generally advised to initially access a COVID-19 test through the national COVID-19 testing programme. This is likely to result in lower numbers of patients accessing health advice as monitored through syndromic surveillance systems. Syndromic data should therefore be interpreted with some caution and in the context of other COVID-19 monitoring data sources. Please see ‘notes and caveats’ for information about the COVID-19-like GPIH syndromic indicator including important caveats around the interpretation of this indicator.

In This Issue:

Key messages.

Diagnostic indicators at a glance.

GP practices and denominator population.

National syndromic indicators.

Notes and further information.

Diagnostic indicators at a glance:

GP practices and denominator population:

**based on the average number of practices and denominator population in the reporting working week.

12 January 2021

Data to: 10 January 2021

Year: 2021 Week: 1

Indicator Trend Level

COVID-19-like increasing -

Upper respiratory tract infection no trend below baseline levels

Influenza-like illness increasing below baseline levels

Pharyngitis no trend below baseline levels

Scarlet fever no trend below baseline levels

Lower respiratory tract infection increasing below baseline levels

Pneumonia increasing below baseline levels

Gastroenteritis no trend below baseline levels

Vomiting no trend below baseline levels

Diarrhoea no trend below baseline levels

Asthma increasing below baseline levels

Conjunctivitis decreasing below baseline levels

Mumps no trend below baseline levels

Measles no trend below baseline levels

Rubella no trend below baseline levels

Pertussis no trend below baseline levels

Chickenpox no trend below baseline levels

Herpes zoster no trend below baseline levels

Cellulitis decreasing below baseline levels

Impetigo no trend below baseline levels

A Cold Watch System operates in England from 1 November to 31 March each year. As part of the Public Health England Cold Weather Plan for England the PHE Real-time Syndromic Surveillance team will be monitoring the impact of cold weather on syndromic surveillance data during this period. Cold weather alert level (current reporting week): Level 3 - Cold weather action http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/coldweatheralert/

Year Week GP Practices Reporting** Population size**

2021 1 3,947 35.9 million

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/coldweatheralert/

GP In Hours

Page 2.

1a: COVID-19-like

consultations by age

group

* 7-day moving average adjusted for bank holidays.

1b: COVID-19-like

consultations by

PHE Centre

1. COVID-19-like

consultations

Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, based on a denominator population of approximately 5.5 million patients).

Please note: based on a single data provider only.

Daily incidence rate by age group per 100,000 population all England, based on a denominator population of approximately 5.5 million patients).

Please note: based on a single data provider only

Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, based on a denominator population of approximately 5.5 million patients).

Please note: based on a single data provider only

12 January 2021 Year: 2021 Week: 1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Dai

ly r

ate

per

100

,000

po

pu

lati

on

Bank Holiday Weekend Under 1 Year 1 to 4 5 to 14

15 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75 plus

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

per

100,0

00 p

opula

tion

weekend bank holiday covid-19 7 day moving average

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Dai

ly r

ate

pe

r 10

0,0

00

po

pul

atio

n

weekend bank holiday URTI 7 day mov avg baseline

GP In Hours

Page 3.


2: Upper respiratory

tract infection (URTI)

Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 01

2020 2021

Ave

rag

e d

aily

rat

e p

er 1

00

,00

0 re

gis

tere

d G

P p

atie

nts

Year - Week

Under 1 Year 1 to 4 5 to 14 15 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75 plus All ages

2a: Upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) by age

Average daily incidence rate by week per 100,000 population (all England).


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Dai

ly r

ate

pe

r 10

0,0

00

po

pul

atio

n

weekend bank holiday Influenza-like illness 7 day mov avg baseline

GP In Hours

Page 4.

3: Influenza-like illness

(ILI)

Daily incidence rates (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).


3a: Influenza-like illness by age


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 01

2020 2021

Ave

rag

e d

aily

rat

e p

er 1

00

,00

0 re

gis

tere

d G

P p

atie

nts

Year - WeekUnder 1 Year 1 to 4 5 to 14 15 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75 plus All ages

3b: Influenza-like

illness by PHE

Centre

Average daily incidence rate by week per 100,000 population (all ages).

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 01

Ave

rag

e d

aily

rat

e p

er 1

00

,00

0 re

gis

tere

d G

P p

atie

nts

Week

North East North West Yorkshire and Humber

East Midlands West Midlands East of England

London South East South West


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Dai

ly r

ate

pe

r 10

0,0

00

po

pul

atio

n

weekend bank holiday Pharyngitis or scarlet fever 7 day mov avg baseline

GP In Hours

Page 5.

4: Pharyngitis or scarlet fever



5: Scarlet fever

Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, based on a denominator population of approximately 5.5 million patients)

5a: Scarlet fever by age

Average daily incidence rate by week per 100,000 population (all England, based on a denominator population of approximately 5.5 million patients).

0

1

2

3

4

5

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 01

2020 2021

Ave

rag

e d

aily

rat

e p

er 1

00

,00

0 re

gis

tere

d G

P p

atie

nts

Year - Week


12 January 2021

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday Scarlet Fever 7 day mov avg baseline

Year: 2021 Week: 1

GP In Hours

Page 6.

6: Lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI)



6a: Lower respiratory

tract infection (LRTI)

by age


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 01

2020 2021

Ave

rag

e d

aily

rat

e p

er 1

00

,00

0 re

gis

tere

d G

P p

atie

nts

Year - Week


Intentionally left blank

12 January 2021

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday LRTI 7 day mov avg baseline

Year: 2021 Week: 1

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Dai

ly r

ate

pe

r 10

0,0

00

po

pul

atio

n

weekend bank holiday Pneumonia 7 day mov avg baseline

GP In Hours

Page 7.

7: Pneumonia



7a: Pneumonia by age

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 01

2020 2021

Ave

rag

e d

aily

rat

e p

er 1

00

,00

0 re

gis

tere

d G

P p

atie

nts

Year - Week





GP In Hours

Page 8.

8: Gastroenteritis



8a: Gastroenteritis by age


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 01

2020 2021

Ave

rag

e d

aily

rat

e p

er 1

00

,00

0 re

gis

tere

d G

P p

atie

nts

Year - Week


9: Vomiting


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday Gastroenteritis 7 day mov avg baseline

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday Vomiting 7 day mov avg baseline


GP In Hours

Page 9.

9a: Vomiting by age



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 01

2020 2021

Ave

rag

e d

aily

rat

e p

er 1

00

,00

0 re

gis

tere

d G

P p

atie

nts

Year - Week


10: Diarrhoea


10a. Diarrhoea by age


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 01

2020 2021

Ave

rag

e d

aily

rat

e p

er 1

00

,00

0 re

gis

tere

d G

P p

atie

nts

Year - Week


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday Diarrhoea 7 day mov avg baseline


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday Asthma 7 day mov avg baseline

GP In Hours

Page 10.

11: Asthma



11a: Asthma by age


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 01

2020 2021

Ave

rag

e d

aily

rat

e p

er 1

00

,00

0 re

gis

tere

d G

P p

atie

nts

Year - Week


12: Conjunctivitis


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday Conjunctivitis 7 day mov avg baseline


13: Mumps


GP In Hours

Page 11.


14: Measles

Daily incidence rate

(and 7-day moving

average*) per 100,000

population (all England,

all ages).

15: Rubella


0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday Mumps 7 day mov avg baseline

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

0.035

0.040

0.045

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday Rubella 7 day mov avg baseline

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday Measles 7 day mov avg baseline


GP In Hours

Page 12.


18: Herpes zoster

Daily incidence rate

(and 7-day moving

average*) per 100,000

population (all England,

all ages).

16: Pertussis


17: Chickenpox


12 January 2021

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday pertussis 7 day moving average baseline

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday chickenpox 7 day moving average baseline

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday Herpes Zoster 7 day mov avg baseline

Year: 2021 Week: 1

GP In Hours

Page 13.

19 Cellulitis



20: Impetigo


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday Cellulitis 7 day mov avg baseline


12 January 2021

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

12/01/20 09/02/20 08/03/20 05/04/20 03/05/20 31/05/20 28/06/20 26/07/20 23/08/20 20/09/20 18/10/20 15/11/20 13/12/20 10/01/21

Daily

rate

pe

r 1

00

,00

0 p

op

ula

tion

weekend bank holiday Impetigo 7 day mov avg baseline

Year: 2021 Week: 1

GP In Hours

Page 14.

Notes and further information

• The PHE GP in hours surveillance system is a syndromic surveillance system monitoring community-based morbidity recorded by GP practices.

• GP consultation data are analysed on a daily basis to identify national and regional trends. A statistical algorithm underpins each system, routinely identifying activity that has increased significantly or is statistically significantly high for the time of year. Results from these daily analyses are assessed along with analysis by age group, and anything deemed of public health importance is alerted.

• This system captures anonymised GP morbidity data from two GP clinical software systems, EMIS, from version 1 of the QSurveillance® database, and TPP SystmOne.

• Baselines represent seasonally expected levels of activity and are constructed from historical data since April 2012. They take into account any known substantial changes in data collection, population coverage or reporting practices. Gastroenteritis, diarrhoea and vomiting baselines also account for changes since the introduction of rotavirus vaccine in July 2013. Baselines are refreshed using the latest data on a regular basis however they currently exclude data from 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic affecting GP services and patient health care seeking behaviour.

Acknowledgements: We thank and acknowledge the University of Oxford, ClinRisk® and the contribution of

EMIS and EMIS practices. Data source: version 1 of the QSurveillance® database. We thank TPP, ResearchOne and the SystmOne GP practices contributing to this surveillance system.

Contact ReSST: [email protected]

GP In Hours Syndromic Surveillance System Bulletin.

Produced by: PHE Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team 1

st Floor, 5 St Philips Place, Birmingham, B3 2PW Tel: 0344 225 3560 > Option 4 > Option 2 Fax: 0121 236 2215

Web: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/syndromic-surveillance-systems-and-analyses

12 January 2021

• A collection of new COVID-19 Snomed codes were released in March 2020 to facilitate the recording of patients presenting to primary care services with symptoms of COVID-19.

• The GPIH surveillance system monitors the use of these codes in a selection of TPP and EMIS practices across England.

• However, patients presenting with COVID-19 symptoms may be diagnosed using other clinical codes used by the GP.

• Therefore, the COVID-19-like indicator presented in this report is primarily for monitoring trends in GP consultations, and it must be interpreted in context with the other respiratory syndromic indicators presented in this report. The number/rate of COVID-19-like consultations should therefore not be used as an absolute count of those patients with COVID-19.

• During April 2020 a new COVID-19 Care Pathway template was introduced into GP systems that has affected recording of influenza-like illness (ILI), resulting in an increase in the consultation rate for ILI (figures 2a-c).

• All indicator trends should be interpreted with caution due to current national advice and guidance regarding access to GP surgeries and changes in clinical coding for COVID-19.

• Centre level COVID-19 consultation data should be interpreted with some caution. Different GP clinical system providers have different coding for COVID-19 and therefore rates can differ between Centres depending on the relative contribution of individual GP system providers in GPIH. Centre-specific data should not be compared across Centres: trends should only be interpreted for each individual Centre.

COVID-19 consultations

Year: 2021 Week: 1
mailto:[email protected]?subject=GP%20In%20Hours%20Bulletinmailto:[email protected]?subject=GP%20In%20Hours%20Bulletinhttps://www.gov.uk/government/collections/syndromic-surveillance-systems-and-analyses

gp in hours diarrhoea no trend below baseline levels ......gp in hours page 6. 6: lower respiratory...

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