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1 Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge

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Page 1: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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Greener By DesignAviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge

Page 2: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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Climate Change – where are we ?

Page 3: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable
Page 4: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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Aviation & Climate Change

Page 5: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

Aviation’s emissions

Aviation c.2% of global human CO2

emissions.

65% International - 35% Domestic.

80% CO2 flights > 1,500km – limited

alternatives

IAG capacity c. 7% Domestic, 26% European

and 67% International.

Sources CO2 emissions

Page 6: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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Global aviation CO2 emissions & forecast

• Aviation’s share global emissions will rise .

• Depending on decarbonisation path will range 3%-24% by 2050

• Aviation will come under increasing scrutiny.

• BA now 5% of total UK emissions

Page 7: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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Setting the strategic direction

1.5% annual average fuel efficiency improvement

from 2009 to 2020.

Stabilise net aviation CO2

emissions at 2020 levels with carbon-neutral growth.

Reduce aviation’s net CO2 emissions to 50% by 2050 over

2005 levels

GOAL

01PRE-2020AMBITION

GOAL

02CNG

2020

GOAL

0350% by

2050

Page 8: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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Sustainability is now firmly on everyone's agenda

Real, measurable commitments required

Airlines, airports, ATC, OEMs, … everyone!

Flying is and will be ok, but sustainably

Page 9: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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By 2030: 20% reduction in net CO2

By 2050: Net zero CO2

By 2025: 10% reduction in CO2 per passenger kilometre

Our new targets

Page 10: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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The flightplan to net carbon zero emissions

Infrastructure

Operations

Market-based measures

Technology & Sustainable Fuels

1

2

3

4

Page 11: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

11Sustainable Aviation, December 2016

UK carbon roadmap to 2050A4E / ATAG preparing Europe / global CO2 roadmaps

2005 levelnet CO2 emissions

(carbon neutral growth)

With

in-s

ecto

r CO

2re

du

ctio

nM

BM

s

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Va

lue

re

lative

to

ye

ar

20

10

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

CO2 road-map for UK aviation

Operations / ATM

Imminent Aircraft

Future Aircraft

Demand Growth

Gross Emissions

Sustainable Fuels

Market-Based Measures

NET EMISSIONS

Hypothetical “no-improvements” scenario

Reduction in fuel-burn

Further CO2 reduction

Page 12: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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Exploring new technology to capture carbondirectly from the atmosphere

Contributing to UK Government’s goal of a net zero carbon economy by 2050

Incentivising managers to reduce carbon emissions

$400m investment in development of sustainable aviation fuel

First airline group worldwide to commit to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 through a series of measures

Our journey has begun: Flightpath net zero

Page 13: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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www.enviro.aero/saf. Annual estimates

6billion

litres of SAF in forward purchase agreements

9airlines

with significant forward purchase

agreements

200,000commercial SAF flights

since 2011 3.000.000

6.000.000

9.000.000

12.000.000

15.000.000

Litres

Production ramp-up in sustainable aviation fuel is taking off...

20112012 2013 2014 2015

2016

20172018

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) deployment

Page 14: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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What can be achieved?

14 Sustainable Aviation Fuel plants producing nearly 8% of total UK aviation fuel needs

Gross Value Added to the UK of £2.7bn per annum

Additional 5,200 UK jobs

By 2035

(Source:E4Tech).

Page 15: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

15(Source:E4Tech).

What can be achieved?

Up to 30% of UK aviation fuel using sustainable fuels

Limited opportunity for electric or hybrid aircraft to 2050

No long-term substitute for majority of UK jet fuel demand

By 2050

No threat of substitutes to Sustainable Jet Fuel

Page 16: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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British Airways project in the UK

We strongly welcome the UK Government announcement to create a level playing field of incentives for sustainable aviation fuels key to UK projects

Partnership with technology partner Velocys and Shell

Uses waste that would otherwise be destined for landfill – site announced –first fuel 2024

We believe there are significant opportunities for further waste to fuels plants in the UK and around the world

Page 17: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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Page 18: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

100.5 99.797.5

95.6 94.892.3 91.5 90.6

88.086.3

84.582.0

80.2 79.6

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

gC

O2

/p-k

m

IAG

New flight efficiency target 2025: 80 gCO2/pkm - 10% improvement

Target

87.3

2020

Target

80.0

2025

Page 19: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Mt CO2

Roadmap to 20302020

27 MT

2030

22 MT

Operational efficiencies

Fleet

Market-based measures

Biofuels

Voluntary offsets

2020-2030 total cumulative reduction: 160 Mt CO2

2020-2030 reduction in annual net emissions: 20%

IAG CO2 Roadmap to 2030

Page 20: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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Long Term Target – Net Zero Emissions by 2050

• Scientific evidence (1.5 degs) leads to a Net Zero Emissions target by 2050

• UK Government have committed to Net Zero Emissions 2050

• UK CCC advises UK Government that UK Aviation should be included in this target

• We believe target is achievable with a global MBM – the key is NET emissions

• We support committing to this target through ICAO by 2022 General Assembly

Page 21: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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Long Term Target – Net Zero

Emissions by 2050

IAG commitment – Oct 10th 2019

Page 22: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

22Sustainable Aviation, December 2016

UK carbon roadmap to 2050

2005 levelnet CO2 emissions

(carbon neutral growth)

With

in-s

ecto

r CO

2re

du

ctio

nM

BM

s

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Va

lue

re

lative

to

ye

ar

20

10

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

CO2 road-map for UK aviation

Operations / ATM

Imminent Aircraft

Future Aircraft

Demand Growth

Gross Emissions

Sustainable Fuels

Market-Based Measures

NET EMISSIONS

Hypothetical “no-improvements” scenario

Reduction in fuel-burn

Further CO2 reduction

Page 23: Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions ... · Greener By Design Aviation and the Net Zero Emissions Challenge ... Future Aircraft Demand Growth Gross Emissions Sustainable

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Questions?