gross domestic product (gdp) for the fourth quarter of 2016
TRANSCRIPT
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GDPQ4 2016
Gross domestic product, 4th quarter 2016Embargoed until: 7 March 2017, 11:30am
@StatsSA#GDP
GDPQ4 2016
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GDPQ4 2016
GDP (production)
GDPQ4 2016
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GDPQ4 2016
Headline figure:GDP (production)
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GDPQ4 2016
Quarter-on-quarter
-0,3%in Q4 2016
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
Year-on-year
0,7%in Q4 2016
Unadjusted
GDP increased by
0,3%in 2016
(compared with 2015)Constant 2010 prices
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GDPQ4 2016
Mining and manufacturing were the two major industries that contributed negatively to growth in Q4 2016Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
GDP growth rates
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GDPQ4 2016
The primary sector experienced a contraction in Q4 2016Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
-9,0%
-1,8%1,6%
Growth rates in various sectors
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GDPQ4 2016
0,2
0,0
0,3
0,3
0,1
0,1
0,0
0,0
-0,4
-0,9
GDP-0,3%
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4 2016
Growth rates by sectorQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised, Q4 2016
Lower production was recorded for coal, gold and ‘other’ metal ores such as platinum and iron ore
Agriculture
0,1%9,0% 11,5%
PRIMARY SECTOR
Mining
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GDPQ4 2016
Growth rates by sectorQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised, Q4 2016
The fall in manufacturing was a result of decreases in the production of food and beverages,petroleum and chemicals, and transport equipment
Electricity
2,4%0,4%Construction1,8%
SECONDARY SECTOR
Manufacturing
3,1%
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GDPQ4 2016
Growth rates by sectorQuarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised, Q4 2016
Increased activity was reported for financial intermediation, auxiliary activities and real estate services
Trade
2,1%Transport
2,6%1,6%
TERTIARY SECTOR
Finance
1,6%Government
0,9%
Personal services
1,0%
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GDPQ4 2016
Nominal GDP values for Q4 2016
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GDPQ4 2016
Nominal GDP estimated at R1 117 billion for Q4 2016, R23 billion more than Q3: 2016
Trade expanded by R19 billion to R164 billion
Transport & communication expanded by R5 billion to R105 billion
Mining expanded by R5 billion to R84 billion
Electricity decreased by R7 billion to R30 billion
Agriculture decreased by R11 billion to R13 billion
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GDPQ4 2016
Shares of nominal GDP
Q4 2016
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GDPQ4 2016
GDPp: revised and annual figures
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GDPQ4 2016
GDPp annual revisions
Constant 2010 prices Level of GDPp revised slightly upwards
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GDPQ4 2016
GDPp increased by
0,3%in 2016
(compared with 2015)Constant 2010 prices
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GDPQ4 2016
Annual GDP growth rates
Constant 2010 prices The declining trend continues in 2016
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GDPQ4 2016
GDP0,3%
Industry growth in
2016
0,4
0,2
0,2
0,1
0,0
0,1
0,0
-0,1
-0,4
-0,2
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
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GDPQ4 2016
GDPQ3 2016
Expenditure on GDP
GDPQ4 2016
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GDPQ4 2016
Expenditure on GDP decreased by
0,1%in Q4 2016
(quarter-on-quarter)Seasonally adjusted and annualised
Expenditure on GDP increased by
0,5%in 2016
(compared with 2015)Constant 2010 prices
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GDPQ4 2016
Changes in inventories contributed negatively to growth in Q4 2016Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
ExpenditureonGDPgrowthrates
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GDPQ4 2016
3,4
-1,8
1,3
0,3
0,1
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
Change in inventories: -R16 402 million (contribution of -3,5 percentage points)Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualised
Expenditure on GDP: -0,1%
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GDPQ4 2016
Household final consumption
expenditure (HFCE)
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GDPQ4 2016
Household final consumption expenditure increased by
2,2%in Q4 2016
(quarter-on-quarter)Seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4 2016
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
HFCE growth rates
Increased spending was reported for miscellaneous goods, food and beverages, and clothing and footwear items
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GDPQ4 2016
0,6
0,7
0,4
0,2
0,2
0,5
0,0
0,0
-0,6
0,2
0,0
0,0
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
2,2%
HFCE by purpose
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4 2016
0,6
1,4
0,0
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
2,2%
HFCE by durability
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
0,1
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GDPQ4 2016
Government final consumption
expenditure (GFCE)
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GDPQ4 2016
Government final consumption expenditure increased by
0,3%in Q4 2016
(quarter-on-quarter)Seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4 2016
An increase in employment numbers contributed to growth in Q4 2016Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
GFCE growth rates
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GDPQ4 2016
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)
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GDPQ4 2016
Gross fixed capital formation increased by
1,7%in Q4 2016
(quarter-on-quarter)Seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4 2016
Construction works and transport equipment were the largest positive contributors in Q4 2016Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
GFCF growth rates
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GDPQ4 2016
0,2
0,7
0,5
1,2
-0,1
-0,3
-0,6
LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions
1,7%
GFCF by asset type
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4 2016
Change in inventories
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GDPQ4 2016
Change in inventories(R million)
Large drawdowns were reported for the mining industry. These were partially offset by a build-up in the manufacturing industry.Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4 2016
Exports and Imports
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GDPQ4 2016
Exports of goods and services
12,5%in Q4 2016
(quarter-on-quarter)
Imports of goods and services
6,1%in Q4 2016
(quarter-on-quarter)Seasonally adjusted and annualised Seasonally adjusted and annualised
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GDPQ4 2016
Exports of precious metals and mineral products were largely responsible for the increase in Q4 2016Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
Exports growth rates
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GDPQ4 2016
Imports of machinery and equipment were largely responsible for the increase in Q4 2016 Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
Imports growth rates
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GDPQ4 2016
GDPe: revised and annual figures
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GDPQ4 2016
GDPe annual revisions
Constant 2010 prices Level of GDPe revised slightly downwards
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GDPQ4 2016
Expenditure on GDP increased by
0,5%in 2016
(compared with 2015)Constant 2010 prices
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GDPQ4 2016
Annual GDPe growth rates
Constant 2010 prices The declining trend continues in 2016
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GDPQ4 2016
Regional estimates
GDPQ4 2016
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GDPQ4 2016
LP1,9%
MP-0,2%
KZN0,8%
EC0,7%
FS-0,2%
NW4,9%
NC0,9%
WC1,5%
GP1,4%
South Africa1,3%
Which provincial economies grew in 2015?
Annual change: constant prices
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GDPQ4 2016
Provincial contribution to the national
economy- 2015 -
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GDPQ4 2016
Percentage distribution of economic activity within each province (2015)
Current prices
25%
23%
20%
17%
18%
33%
25%
23% 27%
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GDPQ4 2016
Percentage distribution of industrial activity across provinces (2015)
Gauteng has the largest share of eight of the ten industries in South Africa. South African agriculture production is concentrated in KwaZulu-Natal and Western CapeCurrent prices
26%
28%
39%
30%
33%
31%
35%
42%
30%
40%
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GDPQ4 2016
Recap
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GDPQ4 2016
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
GDP and expenditure on GDP growth rates
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GDPQ4 2016
Quarter-on-quarter
-0,3%in Q4 2016
Seasonally adjusted and annualised
Year-on-year
0,7%in Q4 2016
Unadjusted
GDP increased by
0,3%in 2016
(compared with 2015)Constant 2010 prices