Growing mobile marketplaces in Africa

3-4 February, 2015 1

Lagos, Nigeria

Paul Casarin

Introduction

2

Paul Casarin

Cape Town South Africa  

Bio   Gumtree  

eBay (contract*)  Gumtree

Naspers  OLX

Woolworths  Retail

Ernst & Young  Consultancy

SA’s largest online marketplace  Effective Measure November 2014

7 23 46%

Million Unique

Browsers

Million Visits Mobile users

* All Opinions  expressed  are  solely  my  own  and  do  not  express  the  views  or  opinions  of  my  clients.

Special thanks  Opera Software (Richard Monday) AppFigures (Ariel Michaeli) Reviewer, critique – Hendrik Laubscher Gumtree team Socialbakers support team

3

This is day 1 of the internet

Jeff Bezos Letter to the shareholders, 1997

4

Price   Ease of use   Choice   Location   Payments   Delivery   Service  

OFF

ERIN

G L

EVEL

Marketplace types

Informal (classifieds)  

Formal (retail)  

Key Marketplaces in Sub-Saharan Africa

5

Gumtree OLX Autotrader Junkmail Careers24 Property24 Jobberman Cheki Brightermonday Tonaton

Takealot Amazon

eBay Bidorbuy

Alibaba Jumia Konga

6 Source:  h*p://ben-­‐evans.com/benedictevans/2014/4/7/in-­‐mobile-­‐everything-­‐is-­‐s@ll-­‐wide-­‐open,  GMSA:  The  Mobile  Economy,  Sub-­‐Saharan  Africa  2014  

Key challenges for mobile marketplaces in Sub-Saharan Africa

Scale

Complexity

Barriers to entry

       

•  Affordability – full featured Android phones < $35 •  Accessibility – over 50% 3G coverage by 2020

•  “Pre-Netscape” – multiple ways to access services •  “Pre-PageRank” – difficult to discover & find services

•  Local know-how – 49 unique “frontier” countries •  Market volatility – high adoption rates, global threats

7

In mobile, everything is still wide open

Benedict Evans, 2014

 -­‐        

   10    

   20    

   30    

Nigeria  

South  Africa  

Kenya  

Angola  

Tanzania  

Ethiop

ia  

Ghana  

Ugand

a  

Mozam

biqu

e  

Cameroo

n  

Millions  

Estimated active mobile Internet users (browsers)

8

63%   36%   36%   32%   61%   58%   55%   64%   55%   60%  

Opera browser share  

Opera actual

usage / Share of market

Sou

rce:

Aut

hors

est

imat

e of

Act

ive

user

s ba

sed

on O

pera

+ g

s.st

atco

unte

r (N

ovem

ber 2

014)  

0  

20  

40  

60  

0  

4  

8  

12  

Nigeria  

 South  Africa  

Ken

ya  

Ghana  

�Cameroo

n  

�Tanzania  

�Ethiop

ia  

Angola  

Ugand

a  

 Mozam

biqu

e  

Millions  

Millions  

Facebook rank: social + mobile + engagement

9

Facebook users

Internet users

Source: World Bank, Facebook, Authors estimate of Active Mobile users based on Opera + gs.statcounter  

Wor

ld B

ank

Est

imat

ed u

sers

Largest Internet Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa 173  

66  

30  12  

53  

26   24  11  

South Africa  

Nigeria  

44  

17  11  

4  

Pop

ulat

ion

(Mill

ions

)

Inte

rnet

use

rs

Est

. act

ive

user

s

Face

book

Kenya  

Sou

rce:

Wor

ld B

ank,

Fac

eboo

k, A

utho

rs e

stim

ate

of A

ctiv

e us

ers

base

d on

Ope

ra +

gs.

stat

coun

ter  

11

More time is spent in mobile apps than on all of

the web Benedict Evans, 2014 Post-Netscape, post-PageRank

Source:  h*p://ben-­‐evans.com/benedictevans/2014/10/28/presenta@on-­‐mobile-­‐is-­‐ea@ng-­‐the-­‐world  

Android took over in 2014

12

Series  40  

Android  

Mob

ile In

tern

et O

S

Sou

rce:

http

://gs

.sta

tcou

nter

.com

 

Jan-­‐14   Apr-­‐14   Jul-­‐14   Oct-­‐14  

Series  40  

Android  

BlackBerry  OS  

Android  

33%

Nigeria  

40%

South Africa  

46%

Kenya  

New race to mobile leadership

Engage Convert Act Reach

13

Build awareness and drive inbound traffic

Convert audience to download apps with a clear and valuable

proposition

Goal conversion such as listings, leads or sales

Build Customer and fan relationship

Google Keyword Planner

Google Play Store rankings

14

Case study: France

Google Searches   Desktop Visits  

Leboncoin   Amazon   eBay   Leboncoin   Amazon   eBay  

Source: November 2014, Google Keyword Planner, SimilarWeb (desktop visits)  

6   9   20  

Country Rank

Mobile

33%

Online Population

France: Android also took over

15

   20    

   40    

   60    

   80    

Jan-­‐14   Apr-­‐14   Jul-­‐14   Oct-­‐14  

Android   iOS  

iOS

60% 34%

Mob

ile In

tern

et O

S

Source: http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-FR-monthly-201401-201411  

16

Sou

rce:

Jan

uary

- N

ovem

ber 2

014,

Goo

gle

Key

wor

d P

lann

er, G

oogl

e P

lay

Sto

re (A

ppfig

ures

.com

)  

France: Mobile marketplaces

Mobile growth Increase in mobile

based Google Searches for brand

name

Google Play Store rank Average ranking from January – November 2014

size

Mobile search volume (Nov 2014)

eBay  

Amazon  

Leboncoin  

0%  

40%  

80%  

120%  

160%  

0   40   80   120   160  

17

South Africa

Google Searches  

Gum

tree  

OLX

 

Pro

perty

24  

Sou

rce:

Nov

embe

r 201

4, G

oogl

e K

eyw

ord

Pla

nner

, Effe

ctiv

e M

easu

re  

Mobile

27%

Online Population

Am

azon

 

eBay

 

Take

alot  

Aut

otra

der  

Junk

mai

l  

Car

eers

24  

Bid

orB

uy  

18

Sou

rce:

Jan

uary

- N

ovem

ber 2

014,

Goo

gle

Key

wor

d P

lann

er, G

oogl

e P

lay

Sto

re (A

ppfig

ures

.com

)  

South Africa

Mobile growth Increase in mobile

based Google Searches for brand

name

Google Play Store rank Average ranking from January – November 2014

size

Mobile search volume (Nov 2014)

Gumtree  

OLX  Autotrader  

Takealot  

Bidorbuy  Property24  0%  

100%  

200%  

300%  

400%  

500%  

 -­‐            50        100        150        200        250        300        350    

Case study: Gumtree Android app

19

h*ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOtJN88RBxM    

Source:  h

*ps://play.google.com

/store/app

s/de

tails?id=

com.ebay.gumtree.za&

hl=en  

Case study: Gumtree Android app

20

h*ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYLChblUPKI    

Source:  h

*ps://play.google.com

/store/app

s/de

tails?id=

com.ebay.gumtree.za&

hl=en  

21

Nigeria

Google Searches  

OLX  Konga   Kaymu  

Source: November 2014, Google Keyword Planner, Effective Measure  

Mobile

eBay  Amazon  Jumia   Jobberman   Alibaba  

22

Sou

rce:

Jan

uary

- N

ovem

ber 2

014,

Goo

gle

Key

wor

d P

lann

er, G

oogl

e P

lay

Sto

re (A

ppfig

ures

.com

)  

Nigeria

Mobile growth Increase in mobile

based Google Searches for brand

name

Google Play Store rank Average ranking from January – November 2014

size

Mobile search volume (Nov 2014)

Jumia  

Konga  

OLX  

-­‐100%  

0%  

100%  

200%  

300%  

400%  

0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80   90   100  

23

Kenya

Google Searches  

OLX  

Source: November 2014, Google Keyword Planner, Effective Measure  

Mobile

Jumia  Amazon   eBay   Brightermonday   Cheki  

24

Sou

rce:

Jan

uary

- N

ovem

ber 2

014,

Goo

gle

Key

wor

d P

lann

er, G

oogl

e P

lay

Sto

re (A

ppfig

ures

.com

)  

Kenya

Mobile growth Increase in mobile

based Google Searches for brand

name

Google Play Store rank Average ranking from January – November 2014

size

Mobile search volume (Nov 2014)

OLX  

Jumia  

0%  

200%  

400%  

600%  

800%  

0   20   40   60   80   100   120  

New race to mobile leadership

Engage Convert Act Reach

25

Build awareness and drive inbound traffic

Convert audience to download apps with a clear and valuable

proposition

Goal conversion such as listings, leads or sales

Build Customer and fan relationship

26

This is day 1 of the internet

Jeff Bezos Letter to the shareholders, 1997