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Slide no. 1/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
GSM/3G MARKET UPDATEFebruary, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Associationwww.gsacom.com
Download this document and updates at www.gsacom.com
Published by GSA Secretariat Tel +44 1279 439 667 [email protected]
Slide no. 2/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
GSM/3G network deployments globally
4626 GSM networks commercially operational in 199 countries/territories
41.268 billion GSM subscribers at end 2004
4GSM grew 26 million per month in Q4 2004
4276.5 million GSM subscribers added in 2004
4GSM accounts for 75% of the world’s cellular market and over 80% of net current additions
4The GSM family of technologies embraces GPRS, EDGE, WCDMA and HSDPA
4Over 99.8% of the world’s population live in countries that have licensed GSM and/or WCDMA
February 2005 GSM/3G Network Update - GSM/3G market statistics, GSM, EDGE and WCDMA network deployments, devices www.gsacom.com
Slide no. 3/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
cdmaOnecdmaOne
GSMGSM
TDMA TDMA
2G
PDC PDC
CDMA2000 1x
CDMA2000 1x
First Step into 3G
GPRSGPRS 90%
10%
Evolution of Mobile Systems to 3G
EDGEEDGE
WCDMAWCDMA
CDMA2000 1x EV/DVCDMA2000 1x EV/DV
3G phase 1 Evolved 3G
3GPP CoreNetwork
CDMA20001x EV/DOCDMA20001x EV/DO
HSDPAHSDPA
Expected market share
Slide no. 4/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
4Open standardized technology4Interoperability, roaming, competition,
roadmap security, end-to-end efficiency
4 Economies of scale41.268 billion GSM users (end Dec 2004)4GSM has 5.5 times larger number of
consumers and operators 4GSM has more advanced learning curve4GSM has sustainable cost advantage
4Growth 4GSM > 80% of all new users
Source: EMC 2003
0100200300400500600700800
Millions
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Mobile subscriptions
GSMCDMA
9001000
2004
(Feb)
Business fundamentals driving GSM success
Slide no. 5/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Mobile technology growth, market share
GSM/3G statistics and downloadable charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
Slide no. 6/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Mobile subscribers growth– China, India
GSM/3G statistics and downloadable charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
Slide no. 7/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Mobile subscriber growth- Latin and Central America
GSM/3G statistics and downloadable charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
Slide no. 8/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
4 First steps to 3G4242 commercial GPRS networks4130 networks deploying GPRS/EDGE451 commercial EDGE networks
(source: GSA, Feb 4, 05)4106 commercial Cdma2000 1x networks
(source: CDG, Feb 1, 2005)4 3G
4WCDMA: 134 licenses awarded464 commercial WCDMA networks
(source: GSA, Feb 4, 2005)418 commercial CDMA 1x EV-DO networks
(source: CDG, Feb 1, 2005)
Adoption of different mobile standards
4 Evolved 3G4HSDPA: all WCDMA operators expected to upgrade to HSDPA (SW upgrade to BTS) 4CDMA 1x EV-DV: expected fragmentation of operators into different evolution steps, due to required
hardware upgrades in each step
No. of commercial networks per mobile data standard
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
EDGE/GPRS CDMA2000-1x WCDMA 1xEV-DO
Slide no. 9/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
GSA research to February 4, 2005 confirms:134 WCDMA licences in 48 countries
64 commercial WCDMA networks in 31 countries
9 pre-commercial networks
WCDMA subscribers: 16.29 millions*
*(WCMDA subs at Dec 31, 2004 source Informa Telecoms & Media)
WCDMA - mature technologyglobally deployed in commercial service
Registered GSA website users from suppliers who are member organisations of GSAand other qualified site users can download
GSA’s detailed list of commercial and pre-commercial networks in theWCDMA Fact Sheet - www.gsacom.com
IMPORTANT NOTE
Slide no. 10/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
WCDMA devices growth and suppliers
4Amoi
4BenQ
4Fujitsu
4HTC
4Huawei
4LG
4Lucent/Novatel
4Mitsubishi
4Motorola
4NEC
4Nokia
4NTT DoCoMo
(Raku Raku)
4Panasonic
4Samsung
4Sanyo
4Seiko
4Sharp
4Siemens
4Sony Ericsson
4Toshiba
4Vodafone (Datacard)
4ZTE
Registered GSA website users from suppliers who are member organisations of GSA
and other qualified site users can downloadGSA’s detailed list of WCDMA devices in
WCDMA Devices - www.gsacom.com
Suppliers
IMPORTANT NOTE
Slide no. 11/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
EDGE - strong take up globally4130 operators in 75 countries are committed to deploy EDGE451 commercial EDGE networks on all continents
Registered GSA website users from suppliers who are member organisations of GSAand other qualified site users can can download the
detailed list of commercial and pre-commercial networks inEDGE Operators Worldwide - www.gsacom.com
IMPORTANT NOTE
GSM/3G statistics and downloadable charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
Slide no. 12/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
EDGE devices shipping or announced4 64 EDGE devices in the market (source: GSA: February 4, 2005)4 EDGE becoming standard in most new phones4 Covers all segments globally
Representatives from suppliers who are member organisations of
GSA and other qualified site users can download the list of
EDGE devices in EDGE Devices -www.gsacom.com
IMPORTANT NOTE
GSM/3G statistics and downloadable charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
Slide no. 13/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
4EDGE (Enhanced GPRS) uses existing spectrum and sites
4Incremental investment for triple GPRS datarates, more voice capacity
4Natural evolution for all GSM operators - fastest path to 3G
4WCDMA in new IMT 2000 spectrum for highest rate 3G services/applications e.g. video calls
4WCDMA leverages GSM scale plus Japan/Korea markets for global service
4Gradual investment; step-by-step evolution; builds on existing applications/service portfolios
4GSM/EDGE/WCDMA for simple service migration, similar user experience, service continuity, roaming; high investment re-usability
4Integrated EDGE/WCDMA devices available; EDGE/WCDMA handover is commercial reality
GSM Operators path to 3G – combined EDGE/WCDMA- complementary, proven, mature, open technologies
Slide no. 14/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Mobile operators deploying combinedWCDMA/EDGE networks include:
yÅlands Mobiltelefon, Finland
yMobilkom Austria
yBatelco, Bahrain
yCingular Wireless, USA
yElisa, Finland
yGPTC, Libya
yHong Kong CSL
yMaxis, Malaysia
yMTC Vodafone, Bahrain
yOrange, France
yPannon GSM, Hungary
yPolkomtel, Poland
yRogers Wireless, Canada
ySwisscom, Switzerland
yTelenor, Norway
yNetcom, Norway
yT-Mobile USA
yTelfort, Netherlands
yTeliaSonera, Finland
yTeliaSonera, Sweden
yTIM Greece
yTIM Italy
yVIP Net, Croatia
Slide no. 15/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
HSDPAHigh Speed Downlink Packet Access
HSDPA delivers a similar boost for WCDMA as EDGE does for GSM/GPRS. HSDPA boosts the air interface capacity by 2 times and delivers a 5-fold increase in data speeds in the downlink direction. HSDPA also shortens round-trip time between network and terminals and reduces variance in downlink transmission delay.These performance improvements are achieved by: 4bringing key functions e.g. scheduling of data packet transmission and processing of retransmissions into the base station – i.e. closer to the air interface 4using a short frame length to further accelerate packet scheduling for transmission 4employing incremental redundancy for minimizing the air-interface load caused by retransmissions 4adopting a new transport channel type - High Speed Downlink Shared Channel (HS-DSCH) to facilitate air interface channel sharing between several users 4adapting the modulation scheme and coding according to the quality of the radio link.
Slide no. 16/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Commercial release of HSDPA is anticipated from 2H 2005. HSDPA will enable operators to deliver more advanced mobile broadband services such as Internet and corporate access. Its unprecedented data rates will allow users to download audio, video and large files or attachments significantly faster than currently possible. The large demand for broadband access, strong growth of laptop penetration combined with full mobility and wide-area coverage of WCDMA networks offers an attractive business opportunity for operators today.
WCDMA broadband access to Internet enables "everywhere working" and facilitates enterprise workers to stay in touch via advanced terminals or laptops, with their business partners and for consumers to access the Internet whenever and wherever they desire, at bandwidths equivalent to fixed broadband access services.
All WCDMA operators are expected to deploy HSDPA. The upgrade path from WCDMA to HSDPA is easy, as base stations only require a software upgrade. Today’s GSM scale economies will be available with HSDPA in the coming years.
Business Opportunities with HSDPA
Slide no. 17/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Performance evolution of cellular technologies
Slide no. 18/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
4 Laptop Browsing ( Downloads)4 CDMA – The average download speed was about 50 kbps.4 EDGE – The average download speed was about 160 kbps.
4 Internet Streaming (Live TV)4 CDMA – The TV was not playing continuously but with breaks.4 EDGE – The TV was playing continuously and smoothly.
4 Video Streaming on Mobile (Live Videos)4 CDMA – not possible at present.4 EDGE – A smooth play of movie trailer.
Practical performance of EDGE and CDMA2000 1X- Observations from a GSM/EDGE and CDMA market
Slide no. 19/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Wildstrom (columnist)
4I found downloads consistently hit speeds at a bit over 300 kilobits per second, at the low end of Verizon's claimed range of 300 to 500 kbps.
4No standardized QoS mechanisms
4Only best-effort services, e.g. bearers for video telephony or streaming not supported.
4Over-dimensioning of 50-150% required for delivery of real time services (e.g. streaming or video-telephony
4Typical speed for packet data services are 300-350 kbps in commercial networks (includes reduction from packet overheads)
4Standardized QoS mechanisms for conversational, streaming, interactive and background services
4WCDMA delivers efficiently virtually any service, including video telephony
4QoS management and wideband signal deliver highest spectral and cost-efficiency
EVDOWCDMA
Performance of WCDMA and EV-DO
Slide no. 20/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Market take-up
Open standards & systems
proprietary systems
Note: conceptual illustration
Terminal
Server
Open & Standardized
interfaces
Openness fuelling market growth and innovation
Slide no. 21/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
There are millions of application developers globally, using OMA-standardized development tools 4This community is able to produce any service that is demanded from
various local consumer segments
In comparison, there are virtually no local developers for any single proprietary service standard, and only a maximum of a few thousands in each globally. 4Meeting the evolving consumer demands in all segments with a
proprietary platform is not possible in practise 4Prohibitive cost and time required to recruit and maintain a proprietary
developer community
2-3 Million Java-developers
Over 100 Million Java-enabled
GSM terminals
Customers want locally relevant applications- enabled only with an open, globally adopted platform
Slide no. 22/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Global average roaming revenue is today 4%4Typically up to 25% of revenues may be contributed from roaming4 In the GSM community there are over 20,000+ roaming agreements in place
Indirect impact of roaming plays a major role in customer acquisition 4Virtually all potential data users require roaming as a basic part of service offering.4Only GSM provides automatic roaming facilities globally
Service roaming globally is also required with 3G
Service roaming globally possible only with GSM-family
Slide no. 23/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Improved performance, decreasing cost of delivery
Typical average bit rates (peak rates higher)
WEB browsingCorporate data accessStreaming audio/video
Voice & SMS Presence/location
xHTML browsingApplication downloadingE-mail
MMS picture / video
Multitasking
3G-specific services take advantage of higher bandwidth
and/or real-time QoS
3G-specific services take advantage of higher bandwidth
and/or real-time QoS
A number of mobile services are bearer
independent in nature
A number of mobile services are bearer
independent in nature
HSDPA1-10Mbps
WCDMA128-384
kbps
EGPRS80-160kbps
GPRS30-40kbps
GSM10-40kbps
Push-to-talk
Broadbandin wide area
Video sharing Video telephonyReal-time IPmultimedia and gamesMulticasting
Services roadmap
CD
MA
2000
-EV
DO
CD
MA
2000
-EV
DV
CD
MA
2000
1x
Slide no. 24/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
3G is relevant today for all markets
4Capacity booster; operational and spectrum efficiencies
4Higher data speeds; all data services improve with speed
4enhances user experience
4Revenue growth with new data-enabled services
4Key for competitive differentiation
4EDGE: small upgrade to GPRS, big lift in performance, fast market entry
4WCDMA: in new spectrum at 2GHz (IMT-2000 core band)
4EDGE + WCDMA complementary and long term
4Evolved WCDMA (HSDPA/HSUPA) for mass market mobile IP multimedia
Slide no. 25/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
4WCDMA and EDGE are mature technologies4 64 commercial WCDMA networks; 51 commercial EDGE networks4 116 WCMDA devices + 64 EDGE devices in the market; and their development continues
4All enablers are in place for mass market data services take-up4 GPRS/EDGE, WCDMA/HSDPA agreed evolution path for majority of operators
4 Open standards deliver broadest market acceptance - highest usage levels4 Huge terminal variety; interoperability; roaming; richest applications/content, lowest cost of
ownership
4 Plan a fully integrated GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA onto harmonized common network4 One network; 2 access methods; many operators deploying EDGE/WCDMA for 3G delivery4 Seamless services continuity for maximum services momentum4 Integrated approach optimises CAPEX; smoothes the transition to 3G/WCDMA4 Expand services for global use via data roaming agreements
Conclusions
Slide no. 26/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
About GSA - Global mobile Suppliers Association- representing GSM/EDGE/WCDMA suppliers globally
GSA is the only representative body for the GSM/3G supplier industry, bringing togetherall views on GSM/EDGE/WCDMA
Objectives4to strengthen promotion of GSM world-wide in new and existing markets4to support operators and promote the evolution of GSM as the platform for delivery of
third-generation (3G) multimedia services
GSA Executive Committee in 2005 comprises the leading GSM/EDGE/WCDMA suppliers4Ericsson, Lucent Technologies, Nokia, and Siemens
Benefits of membership/join GSA – see www.gsacom.com/about/index.php4
Slide no. 27/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Regional programs
Regional Chapters in India and APAC for:4Improved information sharing, dialogue, networking and lobbying4Assisting development of local markets and export opportunities4Action plans tailored for local needs4Leading contributors are Alcatel, Ericsson, Nokia, and Siemens4Workshops, briefings, exhibitions, conference speakers, newsletter (India)
4GSA India Chapter: P Balaji, Chairman, and Vice President, GSA4www.gsacom.com/chapters#india
4APAC Chapter: Anders Kager, Chairman, and Vice President, GSA4www.gsacom.com/chapters#apac
4Latin America - includes activities within European Commission @LIS program4Africa
Slide no. 28/28GSM/3G Market Update - February, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
GSM/3G Resources- GSM/EDGE/WCDMA/HSDPA
GMD™Newsletterwww.gsacom.com
GSM/3G Operators Zone for GSM-family operators
register at www.gsacom.com
Push to Talk on a Mobile Phone (Opinion Paper)www.gsacom.com
GSM/3G Network Update – NEW – February 2005 issuewww.gsacom.com
Services/market updates
www.gsacom.com/gmd/index.php4
WCDMA Databank – deployments, devices
www.gsacom.com
EDGE Databank – deployments, devices, platforms
www.gsacom.com