gwinnett county real estate market report 7-08

© 2008 Lane BaileyGarageHomesUSA.com

Gwinnett County Real Gwinnett County Real Estate Market ReportEstate Market Report

May – June 2008May – June 2008


May Numbers - UpdatedMay Numbers - Updated

• 2231 New Listings2231 New Listings

• 757 Sold Listings757 Sold Listings

• 850 Listings Pending850 Listings Pending

• Average 96 Days on Market Average 96 Days on Market for Sold Listingsfor Sold Listings


May Numbers - UpdatedMay Numbers - Updated

*Listings Pending may have closed in *Listings Pending may have closed in April, may have closed in May, may April, may have closed in May, may close in some other month, or may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.Sold Listings.


June Numbers - PreliminaryJune Numbers - Preliminary

• 2226 New Listings2226 New Listings

• 551 Sold Listings551 Sold Listings

• 781 Listings Pending781 Listings Pending

• Average 94 Days on Market Average 94 Days on Market for Sold Listingsfor Sold Listings


June Numbers - PreliminaryJune Numbers - Preliminary

*While all of these numbers are subject *While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 750 closed revision. I am estimating 750 closed sales for June.sales for June.


Days on Market (DoM)Days on Market (DoM)

DoM

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

6-Jul 6-Aug

6-Sep

6-Oct

6-Nov

6-Dec

7-Jan

7-Feb

7-Mar

7-Apr

7-May

7-Jun

7-Jul 7-Aug

7-Sep

7-Oct

7-Nov

7-Dec

8-Jan

8-Feb

8-Mar

8-Apr

8-May

8-Jun

Date

Days


ConclusionsConclusions

• Days on Market usually drop in Days on Market usually drop in April, May and June. I expect to April, May and June. I expect to see mid-90 DoM for May (at 96), see mid-90 DoM for May (at 96), June (at 94).June (at 94).

• If DoM drops further, or continues If DoM drops further, or continues to decline in July, that could to decline in July, that could signal strength.signal strength.


New, Pending & Sold ListingsNew, Pending & Sold Listings

New, Pending, Sold

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

6-Jul 6-Aug

6-Sep

6-Oct

6-Nov

6-Dec

7-Jan 7-Feb

7-Mar

7-Apr 7-May

7-Jun 7-Jul 7-Aug

7-Sep

7-Oct

7-Nov

7-Dec

8-Jan 8-Feb

8-Mar

8-Apr 8-May

8-Jun

Date

Vo

lum

e

New Pending Sold



• I expect to see June Sales come I expect to see June Sales come in around 750 units. I was 100 in around 750 units. I was 100 low for May…low for May…

• Look for New Listings to slow. If Look for New Listings to slow. If coupled with increase in Pendings coupled with increase in Pendings and Solds, that is a signal of and Solds, that is a signal of strength.strength.


May Absorption RatesMay Absorption Rates

9931 Listings on the market in Gwinnett 9931 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of April, and sales County at the end of April, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

• 12 month average: 14.2 months inventory12 month average: 14.2 months inventory




June Absorption RatesJune Absorption Rates

9864 Listings on the market in Gwinnett 9864 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of May, and sales County at the end of May, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.






• While the June numbers aren’t final, they While the June numbers aren’t final, they are still showing a strengthening of the are still showing a strengthening of the market.market.

• Look for the 3 month average Absorption Look for the 3 month average Absorption Rate to drop under 14.5 months.Rate to drop under 14.5 months.

• If this happens, it will be a clear sign of If this happens, it will be a clear sign of strengthening.strengthening.

• There is still a long way to go, 6 months is There is still a long way to go, 6 months is considered balanced. considered balanced.


New/Sold RatioNew/Sold Ratio

This ratio compares new listings This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.determining a pricing strategy.



• In May, 34% as many homes sold In May, 34% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. as were listed during the month. This means that on average, for This means that on average, for each 3 homes that were put up for each 3 homes that were put up for sale, 1 sold.sale, 1 sold.

• In June, early numbers point to In June, early numbers point to 25% (1:4)25% (1:4)



New/Sold Ratio

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June

Date

% V

alu

e


ConclusionConclusion

• The weakness of the N/S% shows The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.to Buyers.

• This number tops around 67%This number tops around 67%• Anything under 33% is very weak.Anything under 33% is very weak.• Look for the mid 30s this summer.Look for the mid 30s this summer.• The latest month is always suspect, The latest month is always suspect,

as the final numbers are never the as the final numbers are never the same as preliminary.same as preliminary.


Average Sales PriceAverage Sales Price

• May - $221,567 Down 6.3% from May - $221,567 Down 6.3% from May, 2007May, 2007

• June - $235,701 Down 6.2% from June - $235,701 Down 6.2% from June 2007June 2007


Average Sales PriceAverage Sales Price

Average prices may be volatile, Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular of homes priced in particular ranges.ranges.

This number doesn’t really give an This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.except in the broadest sense.


List Price/Sales Price RatioList Price/Sales Price Ratio

• May – 96.01%May – 96.01%

• June – 96.06%June – 96.06%

Over the last few years Sale Prices Over the last few years Sale Prices generally held between 97% and generally held between 97% and 98.5%, although there have been 98.5%, although there have been some dips into the high 96% some dips into the high 96% range in the last few months.range in the last few months.


ConclusionConclusion

• List/Sale Price % gives an List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. indication of Buyer strength.

• It also shows whether Sellers are It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.being realistic with pricing.

• The indications are also very The indications are also very general.general.

gwinnett county real estate market report 7-08

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sales averaged

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sold ratio

sold listings

3 month periods

12 month average

june numbers

listings