Habibullo I. AbdussamatovHabibullo I. Abdussamatov Pulkovo observatoryPulkovo observatory of RASof RAS, , abduss@gao.spb.ru

http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html

May 17, 2010 May 17, 2010 The Heartland Institute, USAThe Heartland Institute, USA

THE SUN THE SUN DICTATES THE CLIMATEDICTATES THE CLIMATE

SOHO ImageSOHO Image2001/03/212001/03/21

caused caused by the variationsby the variations in the shape of the Earth orbit and in the in the shape of the Earth orbit and in the direction of the rotational axis of the Earth direction of the rotational axis of the Earth —— by Milankovitch cycles by Milankovitch cycles together withtogether with secondary subsequent feedback effectssecondary subsequent feedback effects leadlead to theto the Big glacial periods Big glacial periods (~100,000 years)(~100,000 years), , established within the last established within the last 850,000 years850,000 years ( (even if the solar luminosity Leven if the solar luminosity L remains constantremains constant).).

TSI is defined as STSI is defined as S = L= L /4/4ππAA22, , wherewhere

LL –– the solar luminosity the solar luminosity —— the total energy of the Sun output the total energy of the Sun output

(per unit time) in the form of electromagnetic radiation, (per unit time) in the form of electromagnetic radiation,

SS –– the total solar irradiance at the average annual distance average annual distance

of the Earth orof the Earth or solar constant,solar constant,

A A –– the average annual distance between the Sun and the Earth. the average annual distance between the Sun and the Earth.

Significant variations in the average annual valuesSignificant variations in the average annual valuesof the total solar irradiance (TSI)of the total solar irradiance (TSI)

caused bycaused by thethe movementmovement ofof thethe SunSun in relationin relation toto thethe centercenter ofof massmass ofof thethe SolarSolar SystemSystem and corresponding variations in the corresponding variations in the average annualaverage annual distance between the Sun and the Earthdistance between the Sun and the Earth leadlead toto shorter slight variations in the climateshorter slight variations in the climate ((even if the solar luminosity even if the solar luminosity LL remains constantremains constant)). .

The Earth and other planets are moving in relation toThe Earth and other planets are moving in relation to thethe centercenter ofof massmass ofof thethe SolarSolar System.System.

SlightSlight variations in the average annual valuesvariations in the average annual values of the TSIof the TSI

causedcaused by cyclic variations in the radius of the Sun together with by cyclic variations in the radius of the Sun together with secondary subsequent feedback effectssecondary subsequent feedback effects led toled to 18 18 Little Ice AgesLittle Ice Ages, , established within the last 7500 yearsestablished within the last 7500 years.. Every time the TSI Every time the TSI experienced its peakexperienced its peak (up to 0.2%) a global warming began with a time (up to 0.2%) a global warming began with a time lag of lag of 1515±±6 6 yearsyears defined by the thermal inertia of the Ocean (despite defined by the thermal inertia of the Ocean (despite the absence of anthropogenic influence) and each deep bicentennial the absence of anthropogenic influence) and each deep bicentennial descent in the TSI caused a Little Ice Age.descent in the TSI caused a Little Ice Age.

The common sign of the cyclic bicentennial climate change isThe common sign of the cyclic bicentennial climate change is dependence of the average global temperature on both the direct dependence of the average global temperature on both the direct influence of the bicentennial variation in the TSIinfluence of the bicentennial variation in the TSI (approximately in half)(approximately in half) and and (approximately in half)(approximately in half) on the secondary subsequenton the secondary subsequent feedback feedback effects effects (natural changes in the albedo, water vapour abundance, etc.)(natural changes in the albedo, water vapour abundance, etc.) caused by it. caused by it.

The influence of feedback effects introduces a kind of chain The influence of feedback effects introduces a kind of chain reaction growth into a climate change even if reaction growth into a climate change even if

the growth of TSI ceases.the growth of TSI ceases.

Natural bicentennialNatural bicentennial variations in the average annual variations in the average annual

valuesvalues of the TSIof the TSI

The total solar irradiance is determined byThe total solar irradiance is determined by thethe relationshiprelationship::

A cyclical change in the TSI is expressed thus: A cyclical change in the TSI is expressed thus:

SuchSuch a change occurs as a result of the a change occurs as a result of the complex processes incomplex processes in the interior of the Sun. the interior of the Sun. AA smooth change in the temperature of surface layer smooth change in the temperature of surface layer leadsleads to to the the disruption of disruption of

hydrostatic equilibrium (the balance between internal pressure and hydrostatic equilibrium (the balance between internal pressure and gravitygravity).).

Restoration of thermodynamic equilibrium can be achieved through a change in Restoration of thermodynamic equilibrium can be achieved through a change in the sizethe size of the Sun to that value which restores balance; specifically, restores of the Sun to that value which restores balance; specifically, restores

thethe temperature of the surface to the previous level, temperature of the surface to the previous level, such thatsuch that ΔTΔTeffeff = = 0,0,

thus thethus the following relationship is validfollowing relationship is valid::

ΔRΔR = = k·ΔSk·ΔS,,

where kwhere k = = RR/2/2SS = 255 = 255 kmkm/(/(WmWm–2–2).).

VariationsVariations inin thethe TSI TSI occuroccur asas a a resultresult ofof fluctuationsfluctuations inin thethe radiusradius of the Sunof the Sun withwith anan amplitudeamplitude of up toof up to 250 250 kmkm withinwithin thethe 11-year 11-year cyclecycle, ,

andand upup toto 700 700 kmkm withinwithin thethe bicentennial cycle.bicentennial cycle.

The established rule:The established rule:

the bicentennial and 11-year cyclicalthe bicentennial and 11-year cyclical variationsvariations in the TSIin the TSI, , sunspot sunspot activityactivity andand solar radiussolar radius are synchronized and cross-correlated are synchronized and cross-correlated

both in phase and amplitudeboth in phase and amplitude

allows one to use relatively short time series of the precision measurements allows one to use relatively short time series of the precision measurements of the TSI matching them to the prolonged series of the sunspot activity.of the TSI matching them to the prolonged series of the sunspot activity.

It enables one to study the course of TSI during the past centuries It enables one to study the course of TSI during the past centuries and even millennia to match it to the corresponding climate changes and even millennia to match it to the corresponding climate changes

in the past and to study its future variations.in the past and to study its future variations.

Cyclical variations of the solar activity Cyclical variations of the solar activity being the accompanying being the accompanying phenomena of the physical processes occurring in the interior phenomena of the physical processes occurring in the interior

of the Sunof the Sun don’t substantially affect both don’t substantially affect both TSI and terrestrial climate.TSI and terrestrial climate.

PositivePositive correlationcorrelation betweenbetween thethe solarsolar radiusradius andand sunspotsunspot numbernumber variationsvariations inin both phaseboth phase andand amplitudeamplitude (1631–1973) (1631–1973)

from the analysisfrom the analysis of internalof internal contactcontact timingstimings forfor the transitsthe transits ofof MercuryMercury acrossacross thethe solarsolar diskdisk overover 1631–1973 1631–1973 ((Sveshnikov Sveshnikov M.L.M.L. Astronomy Letters. 2002, Astronomy Letters. 2002, 28,28, 115 115))

DependenceDependence ofof 11-year 11-year solarsolar activityactivity cyclescycles durationduration (for(for thethe cyclescycles 10–23 10–23))on theon the phasephase ofof a a bicentennial cyclebicentennial cycle ( ( – – cyclecycle 23) 23)

VariationsVariations in the in the TSITSI (daily data are taken(daily data are taken fromfrom www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant )) andand sunspotsunspot numbernumber (monthly data taken(monthly data taken fromfrom http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-data/ ))

Average of the TSI for the cycle 23 is 0.17 WmAverage of the TSI for the cycle 23 is 0.17 Wm-2-2 less than for the cycle 22.less than for the cycle 22.

The smoothed value of the TSI in the minima of the cycles 23/24 was 0.25 and The smoothed value of the TSI in the minima of the cycles 23/24 was 0.25 and 0.320.32 WmWm-2-2 less than in the minima of the cycles 22/23 and 21/22 respectively.less than in the minima of the cycles 22/23 and 21/22 respectively.

We expect theWe expect the beginning of the new Littlebeginning of the new Little IceIce Age epochAge epoch approximately in approximately in 20142014..

Annual averageAnnual average TSISI experiences accelerated decrease experiences accelerated decrease since the 19901990s.s.InIn 1998–2005 1998–2005 the Earth reached the maximum of the global warming.the Earth reached the maximum of the global warming.

TSITSI has reached its record for the last has reached its record for the last (at least)(at least) 700 years. 700 years.

TSI TSI variationsvariations (using the reconstructed data(using the reconstructed data:: Lean J.L.Lean J.L. Space Sci. Rev. Space Sci. Rev. 94,94, 39, 39, 20002000; ; Solanki S.K., Krivova Solanki S.K., Krivova

N.A.N.A. Solar Phys. Solar Phys. 224,224, 197, 2004; 197, 2004; Avdyushin S.I.Avdyushin S.I., , Danilov A.D.Danilov A.D. Geomagnetizm i aeronomiya. Geomagnetizm i aeronomiya. 40,40, 3 3,, 2000 2000)) andand solar activitysolar activity variations since variations since 16111611 ((http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-data/)).. The forecastThe forecast ofof theirtheir changeschanges afterafter 200 20099 is shown by dashis shown by dash lineslines

((Abdussamatov H. I.Abdussamatov H. I. The Sun dictates the climate of the Earth.The Sun dictates the climate of the Earth. 2009, St. Petersburg, “Logos”, 2009, St. Petersburg, “Logos”, –– 197 p.)197 p.)

The received solar energy has to be compensated by the energy that leaves The received solar energy has to be compensated by the energy that leaves the Earth for the climate to be stable. the Earth for the climate to be stable.

Any prolonged increase in the TSIAny prolonged increase in the TSI remains uncompensated by the energy remains uncompensated by the energy radiated by the Earth during radiated by the Earth during 115±5±66 years due to the thermal inertia of the Ocean.years due to the thermal inertia of the Ocean.

ThisThis leads to the sequentialleads to the sequential accumulation of the solar energy by the accumulation of the solar energy by the Ocean and to the gradual increase in the global temperatureOcean and to the gradual increase in the global temperature..

Annual averageAnnual average ofof the TSI experiences accelerated descentthe TSI experiences accelerated descent since the 1990s.the 1990s. We are going through the period of unstable variations when tillWe are going through the period of unstable variations when till the 2014 the 2014

the global temperature will oscillate around the maximumthe global temperature will oscillate around the maximum reached reached in 1998-2005in 1998-2005, then a new Little Ice Age will come., then a new Little Ice Age will come.

We expect theWe expect the beginning of the new Littlebeginning of the new Little IceIce Age epochAge epoch inin 2014 2014..

In 2003-2005 I predicted a new deep minimum of both TSI and In 2003-2005 I predicted a new deep minimum of both TSI and sunspot activity in 2042±11 with a deep global temperature sunspot activity in 2042±11 with a deep global temperature

minimum in 2055-2060(±11)minimum in 2055-2060(±11) andand my predictions are my predictions are looking better and better with each passing year.looking better and better with each passing year.

The increase in the temperature causes the fall of albedo and the The increase in the temperature causes the fall of albedo and the rise of the water vapour abundance etc. in the surface air. These rise of the water vapour abundance etc. in the surface air. These

changes lead to the additional chain reaction growth of the global changes lead to the additional chain reaction growth of the global temperature due to the sequential repeats of the mentioned changes.temperature due to the sequential repeats of the mentioned changes.

In the last quarter of the XX century the value of TSI changed In the last quarter of the XX century the value of TSI changed

insignificantly but due to the regular decrease in the albedo (since 1984 to insignificantly but due to the regular decrease in the albedo (since 1984 to 2000 2000 ((Pallé E.Pallé E. et al.et al. Science. Science. 20042004,, 304 304,, 1299 1299))) and due to the rise of the water ) and due to the rise of the water

vapour abundance in the surface air caused by the global warming vapour abundance in the surface air caused by the global warming the global temperature continued to increase.the global temperature continued to increase.

That is why the climatic changes on the planet in the last quarterThat is why the climatic changes on the planet in the last quarter of the of the 2020thth century were going on century were going on andand on without a glance back on without a glance back

to the Sun.to the Sun.

The forecast of the natural climate change The forecast of the natural climate change for the nearest 100 yearsfor the nearest 100 years

Regions with essential re-covering of water vapour and carbon dioxide spectral details.

The changes in the concentrations of water vapour and carbon dioxide with height.

It is obvious that water vapour concentration varies substantially It is obvious that water vapour concentration varies substantially with height. Even small increase in with height. Even small increase in the averagethe average water water vapour vapour abundanceabundance can can increaseincrease surface surface airair concentration significantly. This concentration significantly. This leads to considerable changes in radiative transfer.leads to considerable changes in radiative transfer.

Sensitivity of climate to carbon dioxide abundance dropped Sensitivity of climate to carbon dioxide abundance dropped with the increase of water vapour concentrationwith the increase of water vapour concentration

Abdussamatov H.I., Mushtukov A.A. (in pressAbdussamatov H.I., Mushtukov A.A. (in press))

We have computed spectral changes with variable water vapour concentration We have computed spectral changes with variable water vapour concentration within 7% and within 7% and carbon dioxide abundance withincarbon dioxide abundance within 33550 0 toto 420 ppm 420 ppm. Cloudiness . Cloudiness was fixed in our calculations.was fixed in our calculations.

We have found that climate sensitivity to carbon We have found that climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide dioxide dropped dropped with the increase of water with the increase of water vapourvapour concentration.concentration.

Abdussamatov H.I., Mushtukov A.A. (in pressAbdussamatov H.I., Mushtukov A.A. (in press))

The well-knownThe well-known annual average global temperature annual average global temperature (in relation to the temperature of 1961-1990)(in relation to the temperature of 1961-1990)

and carbon dioxide abundance in 1998-2008and carbon dioxide abundance in 1998-2008 and their expected variations in 2009-2015and their expected variations in 2009-2015

Petit J.R. et al.Petit J.R. et al. // Nature, 1999. // Nature, 1999. 399,399, 429; http// 429; http//www.daviesand.com/Choices/Precautionary_Planning/New_Data/www.daviesand.com/Choices/Precautionary_Planning/New_Data/

We have developed the dedicated Russian-Ukrainian project We have developed the dedicated Russian-Ukrainian project Astrometria on the Russian Segment of ISS. Astrometria on the Russian Segment of ISS. The project will The project will focus on the high precision photometric and coordinate focus on the high precision photometric and coordinate measurements of temporal variations in the shape and diameter of measurements of temporal variations in the shape and diameter of the solar disc.the solar disc. The project will give us a possibility to measure The project will give us a possibility to measure the value of TSI and its temporal variations the value of TSI and its temporal variations with a significantly with a significantly higher precision during 6 years.higher precision during 6 years. The received data on TSI The received data on TSI variations can be extrapolated to the past and future.variations can be extrapolated to the past and future. If the Astrometria project is implemented in time, we will be If the Astrometria project is implemented in time, we will be able to develop a more precise forecast of the duration and able to develop a more precise forecast of the duration and depth of the approaching new Little Ice Age depth of the approaching new Little Ice Age and to understand and to understand the reasons of cyclical changes taking place in the interior of the the reasons of cyclical changes taking place in the interior of the Sun and the ways they affect the Earth and various scopes of Sun and the ways they affect the Earth and various scopes of human activity.human activity.

Thus the long-term variations in the amount of solar Thus the long-term variations in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth are the main and principal energy reaching the Earth are the main and principal reasons driving and defining the whole mechanism of reasons driving and defining the whole mechanism of climatic changes climatic changes from the global warmings to the Little Ice from the global warmings to the Little Ice Ages and Big glacial periods.Ages and Big glacial periods.

Resulting subsequent secondary feedback effectsResulting subsequent secondary feedback effects (natural changes in albedo, water vapour abundance, etc.)(natural changes in albedo, water vapour abundance, etc.) will additionally increase thewill additionally increase the global climate change global climate change by a value comparable to the effect of the incoming by a value comparable to the effect of the incoming solar energy variations alone or even moresolar energy variations alone or even more (proportionally to the duration of these variations)(proportionally to the duration of these variations) even if the even if the annual average of the incoming solar energy then remains annual average of the incoming solar energy then remains constant for an extended period of time.constant for an extended period of time.

The global warming in the Solar System excludes the The global warming in the Solar System excludes the responsibility of humans for the global warming responsibility of humans for the global warming observed on the Earth throughout the 20observed on the Earth throughout the 20thth century. century.

The use of practically full identification of the climate The use of practically full identification of the climate changes with the variations in the incoming solar energychanges with the variations in the incoming solar energy (taking into account their direct and subsequent secondary feedback influences)(taking into account their direct and subsequent secondary feedback influences) within a climate model gives a sufficiently precise within a climate model gives a sufficiently precise reconstruction of climatic processes taking place in the reconstruction of climatic processes taking place in the past and nearest future.past and nearest future.

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The climatic changes are not under the control of humanThe climatic changes are not under the control of humanand the climate changes are independent from behavior, and the climate changes are independent from behavior, actions and desires of the mankind.actions and desires of the mankind.

A reasonable way to combat these changes is to maintain A reasonable way to combat these changes is to maintain economical growth in order to adapt to the upcoming new economical growth in order to adapt to the upcoming new Little Ice Age in the middle of the XXI century.Little Ice Age in the middle of the XXI century.

Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention