HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 1

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS

Johannes Kaiser

Martin Schultz, Tony Hollingsworth

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 2

Overview of Presentation

• Introduction: HALO and GEMS

• GEMS Requirements

• Existing Models of Fire Emissions

• Available Fire Earth Observations

• Strategy Proposal

• Conclusions

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 3

HALO Overview

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 4

HALO – GMES Specific Support Action (SSA)

• Harmonised coordination of Atmosphere, Land and Ocean integrated projects of the GMES backbone (1/2/2004 – 1/1/2007)

• geoland (1/1/2004 - 1/2/2007)• Global and regional observatories & core services

• MERSEA (1/4/2004 – 1/4/2008)• Global to coastal scale models, EO and in-situ data

assimilation and modelling • GEMS (1/3/2005 - 1/3/2009)

• Global greenhouse and reactive gases, global aerosol and regional air pollution, EO-data assimilation and modelling

• HALO aims at formulating agreed recommendations to GAC and IPs

• Scientific thematic analysis of links:• Direct product exchange • Unaccomplished data demands • Common data

• Coordinated solutions to infra-structure in operational mode• Candidate solutions by Alcatel and Astrium

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 5

HALO-Partners

• GMES Integrated Projects• ECMWF (lead + GEMS + Meteorology )• Infoterra (geoland) • IFREMER (MERSEA)

• Industrial partners• Alcatel (Ocean – Atmosphere)• Astrium (Land – Atmosphere)

OceanMersea

LandGeoland

AtmosphereGEMSNWP

Halo

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 6

Overall System: More Details

Geoland

GEMS

MERSEA

RTlink

Off -linelink

ModelAssim.

RetrievalData

Satellite Agencies

CLSNERSC

m-fCMS

MFS TOPAZMercator

CSP

OFMECMWF

NWPUK-metoffice

FOAM

ONC

OLF

GEMS

In-situ

NWP

Coriolis

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 7

GEMS Overview

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 8

GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data

Coordinator A.Hollingsworth (ECMWF)

Projects Leadership

Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F)

Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D)

Aerosol O.Boucher (UK)

Regional Air Quality V-H.Peuch (F)

Validation H.Eskes (NL)

Global Production System A.Simmons (ECMWF),

GMES Integrated Project, 12.5MEuro, 30 Institutes, 14 Countrieswww.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 9

Objectives of GEMS

• Global operational system for monitoring & forecasting composition ready by 2009

• Combine remotely sensed and in-situ data • GREENHOUSE GASES (initially including CO2, and progressively

adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy),

• REACTIVE GASES (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species),

• AEROSOLS (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30)

• Support operational Regional Air-Quality Forecasts

• Global Retrospective Analyses 2000-2007

• Variational Inversion Techniques to estimate sources & sinks of CO2 and other trace constituents

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 10

ReactiveGases

Greenhouse

Gases

AerosolRegional

Air Quality

GEMS organisation in 6 sub-projects

Validation

greenhousegases

reactivegases

regional air qualityaerosols

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 11

Schedule of GEMS Work at Central Site

Year 1May 2005+12 mo

• Build and validate 3 separate assimilation systems for Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol. • Acquire data; build web-site

Year 2May 2006+12 mo

• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• Make reanalyses available for validation by all partners• Provide feedback to data providers

Year 2-2.5May 2007 + 6 mo

• Merge the 3 assimilation systems into a unified system; • Upgrade the models and algorithms based on experience

Year 2.5-3.5Nov 2007+ 12 mo

• Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• Build operational system, & interfaces to partners

Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo

• Final pre-operational trials • Documentation & Scientific papers

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 12

GEMS Requirements on Wildfires

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 13

Fire Emissions …

• … may dominate regional air quality in “severe air pollution” events

• … may elevate background after long range transport (Stohl et al. 2001)

• … significantly contributes to emission budgets of several gases (Kyoto, CLRTAP, …)

• … may influence weather by heat production and absorbing smoke.

• … provide essential a priori information for remote sensing

• … are variable on all time scales from hours to decades

near London-Luton, 2005-12-11 <news.bbc.co.uk>

NOAA, 2005-12-11

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 14

Interannual Variability

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 15

CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e GuianaGuiana

10 km

CO CO – – COCO22

300 ppb

Short-term Variability: CO, CO2

(courtesy M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 16

CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e CLAIRE 1998 – vôo sobre o Suriname e GuianaGuiana

10 km

CO CO – – COCO22

300 ppb

Short-term Variability: O3

(Andreae et al. 2001)

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 17

GEMS Required Fire Products

• Products• amount emitted: aerosol, trace gases• location, time• injection height profile

• Availability• global• near-real time and retrospectively• time resolution of several hours to one day

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 18

Schedule of GEMS Wildfire Requirements

Year 2May 2006+12 mo

• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• global emissions for 2003 of correct order of magnitude

Year 2.5-3.5Nov 2007+ 12 mo

• Produce unified reanalyses for trace gases and aerosol• high-resolution (temporal & spatial) global fire products for 2000–2007

Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo

• Final pre-operational trials • high-resolution (t&s) global fire products in NRT

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 19

Existing Models of Fire Emission

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 20

Existing Emission Models

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 21

CLAIRE 1998 – Roraima FiresCLAIRE 1998 – Roraima FiresSimulation using CATT-BRAMSSimulation using CATT-BRAMS

(courtesy INPE/CPTEC, M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 22

CLAIRE 1998 – Roraima FiresCLAIRE 1998 – Roraima FiresSimulation using CATT-BRAMS Eulerian Transport ModelSimulation using CATT-BRAMS Eulerian Transport Model

1000 m --------------------- 11700 m1000 m --------------------- 11700 m

(produced by INPE/CPTEC, courtesy of M. Andreae, MPI Mainz)

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 23

Some Conclusions on Existing Fire Emission Models

• No global operational system exists.

• (Some) severe events of pollution with aerosol and CO can be monitored and forecast with observations of fires only.

• It is possible.• Fire EO input is essential.

• High temporal frequency of fire observations is important.

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 24

Available Observations

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 25

emission X

land cover type

availablefuel load

hot spots

burnt area

fire radiativepower

emissionfactor X

burnt mass

combustionefficiency

fire radiativeenergy

leaf area index/ NDVI

burning area

fire temperature

burn scars

injectionheightprofile

sate

llite

obs

erva

tions

fire EO

Products from Fire EO

fire products

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 26

GLOBCARBON Global Burnt Area Estimate

(courtesy of Olivier Arino)

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 27

Some Conclusions on EO Fire Products

• No current product satisfies all GEMS requirements.

• Many existing products are inconsistent. (Boschetti et al. 2004)

• very active area of research: Several new operational products are anticipated.

• Burnt Area from MODIS (D. Roy)• Fire Radiative Power from SEVIRI (M. Wooster)• WF_ABBA from global GEO system (E. Prins)• …

• Collaboration with geoland community is needed.

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 28

Strategy Proposal

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 29

GEMS Baseline Approach (AER)

• GWEM for amount, MPI-MET [Hoelzemann et al. 2004]

• BUOYANT for injection height, FMI [Nikmo et al. 1999]

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 30

Proposed Treatment of Wildfire in GEMS

Year 2May 2006+12 mo

• Produce 3 different reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• global emissions for 2003 of correct order of magnitude• climatology: RETRO, AEROCOMM-B & MOPITT2003

Year 2.5-3.5Nov 2007+ 12 mo

• Produce unified reanalyses for GHG, GRG, Aerosol• high-resolution (t&s) global fire products for 2000–2007• burnt area, hot spots from MODIS, GLOBCARBON…

Year 3.5 - 4 Nov 2008+ 6 mo

• Final pre-operational trials • high-resolution (t&s) global fire products in NRT• hot spots and/or FRP from MODIS, …

Year 5 - 2009 -

• operational phase • high-resolution global (t&s) fire products in NRT• hot spots and/or FRP from MODIS, …• WF_ABBA and/or FRP from GEO satellites

Part

ial

Fu

nd

in

g

No

Fu

nd

in

g

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 31

geoland, …

t GEMS

satellitefire product

satelliteradiance

land coverclimatology

fireclimatology

land coverproduct

fireproduct

Global FireAssimilation

System

reactive gasemissions

greenhousegases

reactivegases

aerosols

regionalair quality

greenhousegas emissions

aerosolemissions

regionalemissions

Proposed Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS)

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 32

emission X

land cover type

availablefuel load

hot spots

burnt area

fire radiativepower

emissionfactor X

burnt mass

combustionefficiency

fire radiativeenergy

leaf area index/ NDVI

atmospheric concentration X

burning area

fire temperature

burn scars

injectionheightprofile

sate

llite

obs

erva

tions

fire EO

Proposed GFAS, cont.

GEMS

GFAS

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 33

Conclusions

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 34

Conclusions

• The emission by wildfires of is one of several important cross-cutting issues in GEMS.

• The emission by wildfires is ultimately needed globally in near-real time as well as with a time lag.

• No suitable wildfire emission product is available.• Various fire EO products complement each other.• Several promising developments are visible.

• We propose a phased development strategy for wildfire emission modelling for GEMS:

Global Fire Assimilation System serving the GEMS subprojects, ultimately in near-real time.

• (Feedback through inverse modelling is ultimately expected.)

• We need feedback from and collaboration with the fire EO and land monitoring communities.

• We need additional funding.

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 35

More Info

• www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS• www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/HALO• j.kaiser@ecmwf.int

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 36

Fire Observation Types

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 37

Diurnal Variability

(Justice et al. 2002)

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 38

Overall System Layout

Common data

MerseaGeoland

GEMS

Aerosol Aerosol

CO2 Flux Fires

Win

d

MO

DIS

ME

RIS

? River Input

Em

issi

ons

?

In-situ Precipitation ?

SS

T

NWP Satellite Agencies

Un-accomplished data

Direct product exchange

HALO DataCategories

HALO and Wildfires in GEMS Kaiser et al. ACCENT workshop, Toulouse, 2005-12-14 Slide 39

HALO-Objectives

• “Optimising the efficiency of interaction the Atmosphere, Ocean and Land segments by formulating agreed recommendations to A - L - O IPs and GMES steering groups in areas of”

• Scientific thematic analysis and coordination• Coordinated solutions to shared problems• Recommendations to the transition to operational

status

OceanMersea

LandGeoland

NWPAtmosphere

GEMS

Halo