hans verkerk, vladimir korotkov, jeannette meyer, sergey zudin, sergey lebedev, marcus lindner...
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![Page 1: Hans Verkerk, Vladimir Korotkov, Jeannette Meyer, Sergey Zudin, Sergey Lebedev, Marcus Lindner Impact of wood demand and forest management on forest development](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062619/55153c7955034685568b4cba/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Hans Verkerk, Vladimir Korotkov, Jeannette Meyer, Sergey Zudin, Sergey Lebedev, Marcus Lindner
Impact of wood demand and forest management on forest development
and carbon stocks in Kostroma region, Russia
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Introduction
Forests important for controlling CO2 concentration
Russian forests important
•21% of global forest area
•large carbon pool
•carbon sink
•but:• managed unsatisfactorily
• subject to huge changes
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Introduction
Aim:
• to explore the effects of different wood demands and
forest management strategies on forest development and
carbon stocks
• to contribute to the development of sustainable forest
management strategies in Russia
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Introduction
Research questions
• Demand:• Is the rapid increase in demand sustainable?
• Is it possible to fulfill the demand?
• Management:• What impact does forest management have on the structure
of the forest and on carbon stocks?
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Methods
Study area: Chukhlomskoy FMUForested area 226620 haSpecies:
• Scots pine (14%)
• Norway spruce (32%)
• Birch (39%)
• European aspen (14%)
• Other (1%)
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Methods
Application of EFISCEN• Forest inventory of 1996
• 24 forest types distinguished
• Data• Volume and increment from forest inventories
• Established BEFs
• Marklund equations + EFIMOD coefficients
• Russian yield tables
• Simulation period: 40 years
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Scenarios
Input data
Forestmanagement
Wooddemand
Growth changesdue to climatechange
Forest areachange
Fellingresidues
Europeannational forestinventories
EFISCEN core model:
by region, tree species,site class, ownershipclass
projections of:- stemwood volume- net annual increment- age classes- removals- forest area
Soil submodule:Soil carbon stock andheterotrophic respiration
Whole-treebiomass
Treecarbon
Litte r
Wood productssubmodule:
Carbon stocks andflows in harvestedwood products
Mechanisticmodel
The EFISCEN model framework
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The area matrix approach of EFISCEN
Forest types are specified by:
• Region• Owner• Site class• Tree species
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INVENTORY DATA:STEMWOOD VOLUME, m3
(from EEFR database)
DRY WOOD BIOMASS, Mg
CARBON IN STEM BIOMASS, Mg
CARBON IN WHOLE TREE BIOMASS, Mg
CARBON TO LITTER, Mg/yr-1
Dry wood density, Mg/m3
Carbon content, %
Biomass turnover by age classes, tree species, region
Biomass expansion factors by age classes, tree species, region
The Carbon Calculation
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Methods
Scenarios• 2 species scenarios
• no change in species
• increase of coniferous species
• 5 demand scenarios• constant demand
• increasing demand
• 3 management scenarios• changing share of thinnings in removals
• changing rotation length
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Results
Forest structure in 1995
0
10
20
30
40
Age-class
Are
a (
1000
ha
)
European aspen Birch Norway spruce Scots pine
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Results of demand scenarios
Forest structure
0
10
20
30
40
1-10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-6
0
61-7
0
71-8
0
81-9
0
91-1
00
101-
110
111-
120
121-
130
131-
140
141-
150
>15
0
Age class
Are
a (1
000
ha)
0
10
20
30
40
1-10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-6
0
61-7
0
71-8
0
81-9
0
91-1
00
101-
110
111-
120
121-
130
131-
140
141-
150
>15
0Age class
Are
a (1
000
ha)
0
10
20
30
40
Aspen and others Birch Norway spruce Scots pine
MSD scenario
Average age: 44 years
CP scenario
Average age: 68 years
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Results demand scenarios
Forest growth
• Average growing stock
• Average carbon stocks
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Years
Gro
win
g s
tock
(m
3/h
a)
MSD CP Pisarenko et al., 2001 Alexeyev and Birdsey, 1998
Scenario 1995 2015 2035ton/ha ton/ha % change ton/ha % change
MSD 50.4 54.9 9 59.3 18CP 50.4 67.6 34 82.1 63RFSOS-I 50.4 65.2 29 - -RFSOS-II 50.4 63.7 27 - -RFSOS-III 50.4 66.2 32 - -
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1996
-200
0
2001
-200
5
2006
-201
0
2011
-201
5
2016
-202
0
2021
-202
5
2026
-203
0
2031
-203
5
Years
Tota
l re
mo
vals
(10
00 m
3/ye
ar)
European aspen Birch Norway spruce Scots pine
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1996
-200
0
2001
-200
5
2006
-201
0
2011
-201
5
2016
-202
0
2021
-202
5
2026
-203
0
2031
-203
5
Years
Tota
l re
mo
vals
(10
00 m
3/ye
ar)
Results demand scenarios
Removals
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Years
Tota
l re
mo
vals
(10
00 m
3/ye
ar)
MSD CP RFSOS-I RFSOS-II RFSOS-III
MSD
CP
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Results management scenarios
Forest structureMSD
0
10
20
30
40
1-10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-6
0
61-7
0
71-8
0
81-9
0
91-1
00
101-
110
111-
120
121-
130
131-
140
141-
150
>15
0
Age-class
Are
a (1
000
ha)
HIT
0
10
20
30
40
1-10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-6
0
61-7
0
71-8
0
81-9
0
91-1
00
101-
110
111-
120
121-
130
131-
140
141-
150
>15
0
Age-class
Are
a (1
000
ha)
LR
0
10
20
30
40
1-10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-6
0
61-7
0
71-8
0
81-9
0
91-1
00
101-
110
111-
120
121-
130
131-
140
141-
150
>15
0
Age-class
Are
a (1
000
ha)
SR
0
10
20
30
40
1-10
11-2
0
21-3
0
31-4
0
41-5
0
51-6
0
61-7
0
71-8
0
81-9
0
91-1
00
101-
110
111-
120
121-
130
131-
140
141-
150
>15
0
Age-class
Are
a (1
000
ha)
0
10
20
30
40
Aspen and others Birch Norway spruce Scots pine
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Results management scenarios
Forest growth and average carbon stock
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Years
Net
An
nu
al I
ncr
emen
t (m
3/h
a/ye
ar)
MSD HIT LR SR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Years
Ave
rag
e ca
rbo
n s
tock
(to
n/h
a)MSD HIT LR SR
Increment Carbon
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Results management scenarios
Removals
• Total demand could be fulfilled under every scenario
• Increase share of thinnings• in MSD scenario: 24,400 m3/year
• in HIT scenario: 138,000 m3/year
• in LR scenario 194,200-195,800 m3/year
• No change in share of thinnings SR scenario
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Discussion
Mortality:
•Low volume of removals + absence of natural mortality in
EFISCEN Accumulation of area in oldest age-
class
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Discussion
Forest growth and carbon stocks
• Initial average growing stock: 154 m3/ha
• Initial average carbon stock: 50.4 ton/ha• Estimates are in accordance with literature
• Increase in average growing/carbon stock• Rate MSD scenario in accordance with literature
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Discussion
Increasing wood demand
• Demand could be sustained• demand still lower than maximum volume of removal (MSD)
• High share of wood from deciduous species• Industrial use of this wood still limited
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Discussion
Forest management
• HIT scenario: huge increase in thinnings possible• Set aside forests for nature conservation
• Silvicultural advantages
• LR: biggest increase in average growing/carbon stock
• SR: rather small effect on average growing/carbon stock
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Conclusions
Expected increase in removals is sustainable• More equal distribution of area over age-classes
• Expected increase does not exceed maximum sustainable
cut (MSD scenario)
Expected demand could be fulfilled• High share of deciduous species
Beneficial to:• Increase share of thinnings
• Prolong rotation length