have women born outside the uk driven the rise in uk births since 2001? nicola tromans, eva natamba...
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Have women born outside the UK driven the rise in UK births
since 2001?
Nicola Tromans, Eva Natamba and Julie Jefferies
Office for National Statistics
• Trends in UK births and fertility rates
• Data sources
• Country of birth analysis– Births– Population – Fertility rates
• Quantify drivers behind rise in births
• Most common countries of birth, foreign born mothers
• Actual and intended family size comparison
Overview
Trends in UK births and fertility rates 2001-2008
600
650
700
750
800
8502
00
1
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
P
Liv
e b
irth
s (
tho
us
an
ds
)
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
TFR
Data Sources
• Analysis based on Country of birth of mother– Not a precise proxy for international migrants
• Birth Registrations– Births by age and by country of birth of mother
• Annual Population Survey 2004-2008– Estimated UK population
• UK born and foreign born females by five-year age group
– LFS 2001
Live births by country of birth of mother, UK, 2001-2008
63% of overall rise in UK births since 2001 can be attributed to foreign born women
Source: Birth registrations
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Liv
e b
irth
s (
tho
us
an
ds
)
UK born Foreign born
Proportion of births to foreign born women, UK, 2001 and 2008
Between 2001 and 2008 the proportion of births to foreign born women increased from 15.3 per cent to 22.9 per cent.
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Per
cent
age
Foreign born UK born
Estimated population of women of reproductive age by country of birth, UK, 2001 and 2008
Estimated population of women of reproductive age by country of birth, UK, 2001 and 2008
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44Age
nu
mb
ers
(th
ou
sa
nd
s)
2001 UK born 2008 UK born 2001 foreign born 2008 foreign born
Source: Labour Force Survey 2001, Annual Population Survey 2008.
Live births by age and country of birth of mother, UK, 2001 and 2008
Source: Birth Registrations
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+
2001 UK born
2008 UK born
2001Foreign born
2008 Foreign born
Estimated Total Fertility Rates for UK born and foreign born women, UK, 2004-2008
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
UK born 1.68 1.68 1.75 1.79 1.84
Foreign born
2.48 2.45 2.42 2.51 2.49
Source: Birth registrations and Annual Population Survey
The rise in the overall TFR is mainly due to increasing fertility among UK born women
Foreign born women are also pushing the TFR upwards though because they generally have higher fertility and are making up an increasing share of the UK population
Why have the number of births to UK born and foreign born women increased since 2001?
• UK born women:–Rising fertility rates–Rise in births not as high as could have been
• Decreasing female population aged 25-39
• Foreign born women:–Increase in number of women
• particularly at ages where fertility is highest
–Higher fertility levels than UK born counterparts• Fertility rates have remained relatively unchanged
Quantifying the drivers of the overall increase in UK births, 2004-2007
Factor Impact on number of births between 2004 and 2007
UK born: Increased fertility rates 39,300
Foreign born: Increased numbers of females of reproductive age
32,200
Foreign born: Changes in the age structure
4,700
Foreign born: Changes in the fertility rates
3,300
UK Born: Decreasing numbers of females of reproductive age
-10,700
UK Born: Changes in the age structure
-14,000
Ten most common countries of birth of mother, foreign born mothers only, UK
2001 2007
country of birth of mother Live births country of birth of mother Live births
Pakistan 15,111 Pakistan 18,311
Bangladesh 8,218 Poland 13,333
India 6,735 India 12,478
Germany 4,673 Bangladesh 8,850
Republic of Ireland 4,589 Nigeria 6,702
Somalia 3,202 Somalia 5,952
United States 3,070 Germany 5,564
Nigeria 2,643 South Africa 4,708
South Africa 2,322 Republic of Ireland 4,258
France 2,065 Ghana 3,784
Distribution of Actual family size, women aged 40-49 Great Britain
Percentage
UK born Foreign born
No children 22 22
1 child 14 13
2 children 37 32
3 children 18 18
4+ children 9 15
Sample size 11,240 1,413
Source: GHS 2000-2007
Distribution of Intended family size, women aged 16-49 Great Britain
Percentage
UK born Foreign born
No children 15 13
1 child 14 12
2 children 46 43
3 children 18 19
4+ children 7 13
Sample size 33,920 4,250
Source: GHS 2000-2007
Does a high proportion of births to foreign born mothers imply high fertility levels?
1.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.8
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
Proportion of births to foreign born mothers
Tota
l Fer
tility
Rat
e
Local Authorities, England and Wales, 2007
Summary: Why have UK births increased?
• 2001-2008: Births increased by 19%
• Births to foreign born women account for 2/3 of overall increase
• Increasing UK born fertility – Downwards effect from changes in size and age structure
UK born population
• Increased numbers of foreign born females– Much smaller upward impact from changes to
• Foreign born population age structure• Foreign born fertility rates
Will the increase in births continue?
• UK born women– Dependent on future fertility rates– Downward impact from population size and age structure
expected to continue
• Foreign born women– Future fertility levels – some form of convergence?– Future migration patterns unknown – impact on population size
• Recent economic downturn could affect both groups in different ways– Existing theories point to both possible rise or fall in fertility rates– Effect on migration
Have women born outside the UK driven the rise in UK births since 2001?
Population Trends 136