Head of Intelligence & Analysis, Director, Risk Advisory

Henry Wilkinson

National Security Programs and Incident ResponseFederal Aviation Administration

John Anderson

• Eric Kaler Senior Director, Security, Hawaiian Airlines – Moderator• John Cauthen Director of Aviation Security, MedAire• Henry Wilkinson Head of Intelligence & Analysis, Director, Risk Advisory

• John Anderson National Security Programs and Incident ResponseFederal Aviation Administration

Discussion:

Open source intelligence and risk management

Thank you

• Eric Kaler Senior Director, Security, Hawaiian Airlines • Andrew Nicholson CEO, Osprey Flight Solutions

Session participants:

Mandate:

1. Develop solutions to measure the security of the Aviation Transportation System

2. Propose KPI to manage improvements globally and where necessary

3. Recommend changes in regulatory structure to affect positive outcomes (IOSA/GADM)

Security Working Group (SeG) Program 3:

• High degree of compliance, globally• No value in establishing KPI• Presented Annually at Security Forum and on IATA Security Site

Regulatory Data

Operational Data

Note about TAXONOMY, definitions

Master descriptor Operational descriptor

Aircraft Access Control Aircraft not securedUnauthorized aircraft access (staff or other individuals)Staff with no, not-valid or not-visible identification card on board or in the vicinity of an aircraft

Hold Baggage Reconciliation Hold baggage acceptance (on/off airport)No-show or withdrawn passenger bag not off-loadedBags loaded onto an incorrect aircraft

Aircraft Security Search/Check Suspicious object foundDeficient aircraft security search/check

Weapons/Armed Individuals Transportation Weapon/ammunition in cabin

Weapon/ammunition in hold (unauthorized or procedure violation)

https://www.iata.org/whatwedo/security/Documents/security-descriptors.pdf

• Open Source Data Solutions

Case Studies

14

100% increase in total incidents May-June 2018 57% increase in aviation security incidents from

October to November & December 2018

26 Dec 18: US DHS & TSA announce Manila airport does not meet international aviation security standards set out by ICAO

Philippines – Manila: Ninoy Aquino International Airport (RPLL/MNL)

• Tracking OSINT data across multiple incident types identifies trends and patterns

• Changes in the operational environment identified at specific date points• Operators have the ability visualize and act prior to major regulatory shift• Continued tracking after regulatory shift highlights new operating

environment

IDF Air Activity over Lebanon vs. Airstrikes into Syria during past 6 Months

• Multiple OSINT data sources create a picture of the operating environment• ADS-B transponder tracking• Government press releases• UN information reports• Social media exploitation• Traditional media feeds

• Tracking OSINT data within specific incident types identifies trends• Patterns emerge within the predictive analysis which provides foresight• Operators have the ability set thresholds related to precursor activity

IDF Activity over Lebanon 2018-2019Beirut (OLBA/BEY)

Damascus (OSDI/DAM)

SAM debris recovered

RuAF Il-20 shoot-down

© Osprey Flight Solutions 2019

11 January 2019 Airstrikes

21 January 2019 Airstrikes

07 Jan 19: US National SecurityAdviser meets with Israeli PrimeMinister and talks cover Syria, Iranand Lebanon

21 Jan 19:Remnants of a Syrian conventional SAM recovered in Zahle,Lebanon located 31 miles (50km) directly east of Beirut

29 November 2018 Airstrikes

25-26 December 2018 Airstrikes

26 Dec 18: Syria, Lebanon and Russia claimIDF airstrikes on Damascus threatenedtwo civilian flights landing at Beirut airport

29 Nov 18: IDF claims Iran providingweapons shipments to Hezbollah inLebanon via Beirut airport

September - November 2018 Airstrikes

17 Sep 18: Accidental shoot-downof Russian military IL-20 aircraft byAssad-regime conventional SAMsystem over Eastern MediterraneanSea

Gap Analysis: Despite lull inairstrikes following Russian aircraftdowning, IDF continued overflight ofLebanon and made public claimsabout missile facilities near Beirutairport during October-November2018

19 Nov 18: Lebanon confirms it will notsupply any Iranian airlines with fuel atBeirut airport in line with US sanctions onIranOct 18: Russian S-300 conventional

SAM system component deliveries toSyria

Future Vision• Program 3 to recommend Global Key Performance Indicators (KPI) as Industry

Recommendations, post on IATA Security Site• IATA to promote at ICAO for States incorporation into national security programs• IATA to promote with governments to consider data exchange• As GADM Matures, inform standards, communicate global progress, continue

development of the toolkit

What’s it cost?

What’s in a name?

23

Steve Jackson’s tribute

Source: https://www.asi-mag.com/steves-legacy-empowerment-communication/

Naming proposal for the project:

Steve Jackson AVSEC Toolkit