Potential emissions from the proven reserves of major carbon producers.

Richard Heede, Climate Accountability Institute

Naomi Oreskes, Harvard University

Our Common Future Under Climate Change: Session on Global Emissions and Implications for Targets

Pierre & Marie Curie University, 8 July 2015

heede@climateaccountability.org

“No more than one-third of proven reserves of fossil fuels can be consumed prior to 2050 if the world is to achieve the 2°C goal ….”

— IEA (2012) World Energy Outlook

One-third of 2,860 GtCO2, or 780 GtC. One-third = 260 GtC “A precautionary approach means only 20 percent of total fossil fuel reserves can be burnt to 2050.”

— CTI Unburnable Carbon 2013

Carbon Tracker Initiative

If proportional limits — 25% of global reserves — then listed companies limited to 34 to 75 GtC.

Compared to reserves of listed companies:

- 208 GtC (P1 current) to

- 420 GtC (P2 potential).

Listed companies only:

- 100 coal producers,

- 100 oil & gas producers

Heede & Oreskes (in review)

CTI: 200 largest listed companies.

McGlade & Ekins (2015): geographical distribution of fossil fuels.

Focus on companies with largest production & productive capacity.

Potential CO2 & CH4 emissions from reserves of:

- 42 largest investor-owned oil, natural gas, and coal producers

- 28 largest state-owned oil, natural gas, and coal producers

- SEC filings, AnnRpts, SPE’s PRMS guidance, etc.

- Deducted for non-energy uses (~8% of petroleum); Heede 2014

World reserves of oil, natural gas, and coal — and potential emissions

2014 production (BP 2015)

Oil: 32 Gb Gas: 122 Tcf Coal: 8 Gt

Major producers’ reserves of oil, natural gas, and coal — and potential emissions

Major producers’ potential emissions & remaining carbon budget — by carbon fuel

Remaining carbon budget:

275 GtC (>66% probability ≤2°C)

— IPCC 2013 AR5 WG1 SPM

Major producers’ reserves and potential emissions & remaining carbon budget — by ownership category

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Historic emissions v. potential emissions from reserves

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Potential CO2 emissions from reserves & carbon budget

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Potential CO2 emissions from reserves & carbon budget

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Conclusions

• State-owned companies possess the vast majority of proven reserves (210 GtC)

• Investor-owned companies — primary targets of divestment campaigns and concern over stranded assets — own 44 GtC

• These 70 companies alone have reserves with potential emissions of 93 percent of remaining carbon budget

• State-owned companies part of the solution (reserves in the ground, investment in low- and zero-carbon technology, CCS, carbon offsets, compensation for climate damages, mitigation, and adaptation

• Improved transparency to investors and shareholders, public, regulators, & climate negotiators regarding their plans to help avoid DAI.

Carbon Tracker Initiative (2013) Unburnable Carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded assets, CTI & Grantham Research Institute, London, accaglobal.co.uk

Ekwurzel, B., M. R. Allen, M. W. Dalton, P. C. Frumhoff, R. Heede, & R. J. Mera (in review) Rise in atmospheric CO2 and global temperature attributed to major industrial carbon producers, Environmental Research Letters;

Frumhoff, P., R. Heede, & N. Oreskes (in review) The climate responsibilities of industrial carbon producers, submitted to Climatic Change.

Heede, Richard, & Naomi Oreskes (in review): Potential emissions of CO2 and methane from proven reserves of fossil fuels, Global Environmental Change.

Heede, Richard (2014) Tracing anthropogenic CO2 and methane emissions to fossil fuel and cement producers 1854-2010, Climatic Change, vol. 122(1): 229-241. Open access.

Heede, Richard (2013) Carbon Majors: Accounting for carbon and methane emissions 1854-2010 Methods & Results Report, Climate Mitigation Services, Snowmass, CO.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers, WG1 Contribution to IPCC AR5

McGlade, Christophe, & Paul Ekins (2015) The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C, Nature, 517:187-190, doi:10.1038/nature14016

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Rick Heede, Director, Climate Accountability Institute climateaccountability.org; carbonmajors.org;

heede@climatemitigation.com Snowmass, Colorado

+1-970-343-0707

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Sphere of all water on earth, r = ~700 km Sphere of atmosphere at STP

Top 20 investor- and state-owned companies to 2013, in percent of global 1751-2013

18 Copyright © Climate Accountability Institute

19 Copyright © Climate Accountability Institute

Two-thirds — 65 percent — of all industrial CO2 emissions since 1751 traced to 90 fossil fuel and cement producers.