Attributing regional effects of the 2014

Levant drought to external climate drivers

K. Bergaoui, (ICBA, Dubai, United Arab Emirates),

D. Mitchell (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom),

R. Zaaboul, (ICBA, Dubai, United Arab Emirates),

R. Mcdonnell, (ICBA, Dubai, United Arab Emirates)

F. Otto (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), ,

M. Allen (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)

mitchell@atm.ox.ac.uk

Explaining Extreme Events of 20XX From a

Climate Perspective

(Herring et al, 2014, BAMS)

2014

Additions:

Bergaoui et al

Matthews et al

Other studies: e.g. Lott et al, 2012; Dong et al,

2015

The wider literature

Hansen and

Cramer, 2015,

Nature Climate

Change

But we can ask how the risk of such an extreme

event occurring has changed due to external factors

weather@home regional climate models

One-off event or has the risk for certain events

changed?

Attribution results over the Levant

Attribution results over the Levant

Actu

al

MIR

OC−

ES

M

Ca

nE

SM

2

CC

SM

4

CN

RM

5−

CM

5

CS

IRO−

MK

3−

6−

0

GF

DL−

CM

3

GIS

S−

E2−

H

GIS

S−

E2−

R

Had

GE

M2−

ES

IPS

L−

CM

5A−

LR

IPS

L−

CM

5A−

MR

40

50

60

70

80

65 y

ears

Retu

rn L

evel

MIR

OC−

ES

M

Ca

nE

SM

2

CC

SM

4

CN

RM

5−

CM

5

CS

IRO−

MK

3−

6−

0

GF

DL−

CM

3

GIS

S−

E2−

H

GIS

S−

E2−

R

Had

GE

M2−

ES

IPS

L−

CM

5A−

LR

IPS

L−

CM

5A−

MR

−2.0

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

FA

R

Fraction of

Attributable Risk

(FAR)

FAR =

1 – P_nat/P_all

Next steps: Impacts

(Figures from Lydia Sheldrake)

Climate suitability for Malaria outbreaks; Horn of Africa

Conclusions

There is an absence of attribution studies in some

regions of the world.

There was an extreme drought during the rainy

season in the Levant.

This was unprecedented in 65 years of observations.

It was made 45% more likely due to human

influences (caution needed).