henderson - usdamicrosoft powerpoint - henderson.pptx author jlohr created date 2/25/2013 11:40:31...
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![Page 1: Henderson - USDAMicrosoft PowerPoint - Henderson.pptx Author jlohr Created Date 2/25/2013 11:40:31 AM](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022041702/5e427f95e39e2228bf3d8b7b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Jason HendersonVice President and Branch ExecutiveFederal Reserve Bank of Kansas City –Omaha Branchwww.kansascityfed.org/omahaFebruary 22, 2013
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City or the Federal Reserve System.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
0 ‐ $499$500 ‐ $999$1000 ‐ $1999$2000 ‐ $2999$3000 and up
$Dollars per AcreConstant 2011 dollars
Nebraska and Iowa Farm Real Estate Values1900
Source: USDA
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
0 ‐ $499$500 ‐ $999$1000 ‐ $1999$2000 ‐ $2999$3000 and up
$Dollars per AcreConstant 2011 dollars
Nebraska and Iowa Farm Real Estate Values1920
Source: USDA
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
0 ‐ $499$500 ‐ $999$1000 ‐ $1999$2000 ‐ $2999$3000 and up
$Dollars per AcreConstant 2011 dollars
Nebraska and Iowa Farm Real Estate Values1930
Source: USDA
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
0 ‐ $499$500 ‐ $999$1000 ‐ $1999$2000 ‐ $2999$3000 and up
$Dollars per AcreConstant 2011 dollars
Nebraska and Iowa Farm Real Estate Values1940
Source: USDA
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
0 ‐ $499$500 ‐ $999$1000 ‐ $1999$2000 ‐ $2999$3000 and up
$Dollars per AcreConstant 2011 dollars
Nebraska and Iowa Farm Real Estate Values1969
Source: USDA
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
0 ‐ $499$500 ‐ $999$1000 ‐ $1999$2000 ‐ $2999$3000 and up
$Dollars per AcreConstant 2011 dollars
Nebraska and Iowa Farm Real Estate Values1974
Source: USDA
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
0 ‐ $499$500 ‐ $999$1000 ‐ $1999$2000 ‐ $2999$3000 and up
$Dollars per AcreConstant 2011 dollars
Nebraska and Iowa Farm Real Estate Values1978
Source: USDA
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
0 ‐ $499$500 ‐ $999$1000 ‐ $1999$2000 ‐ $2999$3000 and up
$Dollars per AcreConstant 2011 dollars
Nebraska and Iowa Farm Real Estate Values1982
Source: USDA
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
0 ‐ $499$500 ‐ $999$1000 ‐ $1999$2000 ‐ $2999$3000 and up
$Dollars per AcreConstant 2011 dollars
Nebraska and Iowa Farm Real Estate Values1987
Source: USDA
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Iowa (Left Scale)
Nebraska (Right Scale)
Iowa and Nebraska Farm Real Estate Values
Dollars per acre (2011 constant dollars)
Calculations based on USDA data
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
Demand Shocks: Persistent demand shocks lead to high land values and capital investment
Supply Shocks: Persistent supply shocks that lead to production expansions reduce prices
Interest Rate Shocks: Lower interest rates associated with higher incomes Lower interest rates yield lower capitalization rates
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
Corn Price (dollars per bushel)
$3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00
3% 4,800 6,400 8,000 9,600 11,200 12,800
4% 3,600 4,800 6,000 7,200 8,400 9,600
5% 2,880 3,840 4,800 5,760 6,720 7,680
6% 2,400 3,200 4,000 4,800 5,600 6,400
7% 2,057 2,743 3,429 4,114 4,800 5,486
8% 1,800 2,400 3,000 3,600 4,200 4,800
Capi
taliz
atio
n Ra
te (
perc
ent)
Assumption corn yields 160bushels per acre
Capitalized Value Formula
30% of Expected Price * Yield
Expected Capitalization Rate
Net Present Values tell us that Land Values should equal expected capitalized revenues
According to USDA, land costs are projected to account for a quarter of total corn
production costs and a third of soybean production costs in 2012 and 2013
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
Value‐to‐Ca
sh Ren
t Multiple
Value‐to‐Cash Rent Multiple for IA, IL, IN Cropland, 1967‐2011
IL IA INSources: IL and IA compiled from NASS Reports, IN from Purdue Land Value Survey
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1880 1900 1920 1930 1940 1950 1959 1969 1978 1987 1997 2007 2017
U.S. Farm Real EstateValues (Left Scale)
Corn Price ‐ 5 yearaverage (Right Scale)
Dollars per acre (Constant 2011 dollars)
U.S. Corn Prices and Farm Real Estate Values
Dollars per bushel
Source: USDA
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
050
100150200250300350400450
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Non‐real‐estate Debt
Real Estate Debt
Billion dollars (constant 2005 dollars)
Real U.S. Farm Debt
Source: USDA and Agricultural Finance Databook
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
Kansas Farmer Debt LevelsPercent of farmers
Source: Featherstone (2012)
KS Farm Management Farms:
Average Debt‐to‐Asset Ratio 1979 – 24.6% 2010 – 26.8%
Debt‐to‐Asset Ratio >40% 1979 – 19.4% 2010 – 25.6%
Debt‐to‐Asset Ratio >70% 1979 – 1.3% 2010 – 5.9%
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
The Wealth Effect in U.S. Agriculture
•With high wealth and low interest rates, farm capital investments remain strong.
•Farm leverage increases as farmers use debt not income to finance investments.
U.S. Farm Income and Capital Spending
Billions current 2005 dollars
Source: USDA
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha BranchRegional, Public, Community Affairs Division www.kansascityfed.org/omaha
Booming incomes and low interest rates fuel record high farmland values.
Farm sector debt remains low, but it is concentrated.
The wealth effect is fairly strong in U.S. agriculture.
Will farmers resist the temptation of low interest rates and high land values and not leverage the farm?
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For More Informationon
The Midwestern Economy and Rural America
www.kansascityfed.org/omaha