high frequency indicators of ... - business.orlando.org...• as of may 30, 2021, consumer spending...
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LAST UPDATED: June 18, 2021Phoebe Fleming, Director of Research
HIGH FREQUENCY INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Introduction• This special edition of the Orlando Market Overview analyzes select, high-frequency, labor market and economic indicators. Originally published to signal worsening or bettering employment outcomes for the region, this overview now serves to provide insight into the pace of Orlando’s economic recovery or potentially alert readers to new contractions.
orlando.org/covid19
• View the indicators and key takeaways on the following slides. More in-depth trend analysis is included after the key takeaways. Topics include consumer spending, business revenue, and how those outcomes are influenced by the size of the labor force, industry employment, the unemployment rate, and number of airport passengers.
• Where the data is available, indicators are tracked by their short-term change, signaling current momentum, and their change against a pre-pandemic baseline, highlighting COVID-19’s net impact.
• All data are for the Orlando Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) unless otherwise noted. The Orlando MSA is made up of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole County, the orange counties in the map to the right.
orlando.org/covid19
High Frequency Indicators to Watch – Orlando MSA
Consumer Spending
Weekly
Small Business Revenue
Monthly
Labor Force
Monthly
+18.6%+3.0 pp MoM
+18.6% Jan 2020
-26.6%+0.5% MoM
-26.6% Feb 2020
June 02May 30
1,306,788+1.6% MoM (+20,000)
-5.3% Feb 2020
May
MoM = Month-over-month WoW = Week-over-week
Feb or Jan 2020 – Percent change against monthly baselineSource: US Dept of Labor, FL DEO, Burning-Glass
1. 2. 3. Change in consumer spending for
Florida, compared to a January 2020 baseline.
Change in net business revenue for Florida small businesses, indexed to
January 2020 and seasonally adjusted.
The total number of people who are employed or unemployed and actively looking for work.
Industry Employment
Monthly
1,200,900+1.1% MoM (+12,600)
-10.7% Feb 2020
May
4. The total number of jobs in the
region, measured by a company’s location and industry.
orlando.org/covid19
High Frequency Indicators to Watch – Orlando MSA
MoM = Month-over-month WoW = Week-over-week
Feb or Jan 2020 – Percent change against monthly baselineSource: Orlando International Airport statistical reports, Brookings Metro Recovery Index
Airport Passengers
Monthly
3.28M4.7% MoM30.6% YoY
April
6. Total passengers at Orlando
International Airport, enplaned and deplaned, including
international and domestic travel.
Unemployment Rate
Monthly
5.4%-0.2 pp MoM
+2.3 pp Feb 2020
May
5. The percentage of people in the labor force who are temporarily
or permanently unemployed.
Key Takeaways• As of May 30, 2021, consumer spending in Florida was 18.6 percent above a pre-pandemic baseline, continuing the country-wide
trend of unleashed spending as economies open and people use their pandemic savings. Locally, consumer spending is above pre-pandemic levels across the entire Orlando MSA and it will likely stay that way moving forward. However, shifts in howconsumers spend persist and gaps in between industries remain high. While retail, grocery, restaurant, and hotel spending areabove pre-pandemic levels, transportation and entertainment and recreation spending have not recovered. All this expenditure, however, is not translating to increased revenues for small businesses. Despite high consumer spending, the average small business in Florida has revenues 26.6% below a January 2020 baseline. Going a level deeper, data shows that businesses located in low-income zip codes are experiencing faster recovery, likely due to stimulus checks and unemployment benefits while businesses in Orlando’s high income zip codes are not.
• The size of the regional labor force improved again in May, as 20,000 more people rejoined the labor force. Orlando’s labor force is currently 5.3% smaller than pre-pandemic levels. This is a welcome sign and sharp turn-around in the previous trajectory of Orlando’s labor force size before the beginning of 2021. This also contributes to the slight rise in unemployment experienced this month. regional unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.6 percent from March to April, up 0.2 percentage points from 5.4 percent (not seasonally adjusted). This is the second month of slight unemployment rate increases for the region, coupled with high job gains. This, seemingly counterintuitive trend, is due to large numbers of people re-entering the labor force.
• Orlando re-gained 12,600 jobs, mainly in leisure and hospitality, education and healthcare. This contributes to the 43 percent of jobs that have returned to the Orlando region since the height of pandemic related job losses in May of 2020. Revised labor force models from the Bureau of Labor Statics show that while the region has regained 39,000 jobs since January, no industry is above pre-pandemic levels of employment in Orlando. Construction was the first industry to return to pre-pandemic levels of employmentin the United States.
orlando.org
1) Change in Consumer Spending – Industry
Source: Opportunity Insights, Chetty et. al.https://tracktherecovery.org/
orlando.org
1) Change in Consumer Spending – Counties
Source: Opportunity Insights, Chetty et. al.https://tracktherecovery.org/
+14.8%LakeLine not shown
orlando.org
2) Change in Small Business Revenue
Source: Opportunity Insights, Chetty et. al.https://tracktherecovery.org/
orlando.org
2) Change in Small Business Revenue - Counties
Source: Opportunity Insights, Chetty et. al.https://tracktherecovery.org/
-34.4%LakeLine not shown
-5.3%
-0.4%
-2.2%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 February March April May
Civilian Labor Force SizePercent Change from Feb. 2020
Orlando MSA Florida USA
orlando.org
3) Labor Force Size
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank
Next Update: Local data released July 16
-
(253.6)
(143.9)
(300.0)
(250.0)
(200.0)
(150.0)
(100.0)
(50.0)
-Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21
Job
Loss
or G
ain
(Tho
usan
ds)
Net Job Change from Feb. 2020Orlando MSA
orlando.org
4) Industry Employment – Net Change
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
Next Update: Local data released July 16
0
-100
100 100500
1,900
100
-1,200
3,400
2,000
4,700
600
-1,300-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Min
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Logg
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Man
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Tr
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Util
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W
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Tra
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Info
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Fina
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Prof
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and
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Educ
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Tota
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One Month Change in EmploymentOrlando MSA, April 2021 - May 2021 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
orlando.org/covid19
4) Industry Employment – Month-to-Month
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
Next Update: Local data released July 16
-1.1%
-5.0%-3.6% -4.1%
-5.2%
-1.0%
-4.0%-5.6%
-9.0%
-6.9%
-10.7%-8.7%
-32.4%
-4.4%
-7.1%
-4.8%-3.5% -3.8%
1.3%
-0.5%-1.9%
-5.2%
-2.4%-4.4%
-2.0%
-14.0%
-35.0%
-30.0%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Education andHealth Services
Information TotalGovernment
WholesaleTrade
Manufacturing Construction FinancialActivities
Retail Trade Other Services Transportation,Warehousing,and Utilities
TotalNonagricultural
Employment
Professionaland Business
Services
Leisure andHospitality
Percent of Jobs Lost (-) or Gained (+) in Each Industry Feb. 2020 - May 2021
Orlando USA
orlando.org/covid19
4) Industry Employment – National Context
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
Orlando performing worse than national average
Orlando performing better than national
average
Next Update: Local data released July 16
5.65.7
5.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb March April
Rat
e
Unemployment Rate, NSADec. 2019 - 2021
Orlando MSA USA Florida
orlando.org/covid19
5) Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS, Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
Next Update: Local data released July 16
5.5
5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb March April May
Rat
e
Unemployment Rate, NSADec. 2019-2021
Orlando MSA USA Florida
5.4
4.55.15.56.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb March April May
Rat
e
Unemployment Rate, NSA2019-2021
Seminole County Lake County Orange County Osceola County
orlando.org/covid19
5) Unemployment Rate - Counties
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
Next Update: Local data released July 16
3,651 4,037 3,803 3,803
2,205
152 367 875
1,174 1,121 1,152 1,558 1,765 2,025 1,870 1,951
3,058 3,191
538
597 573 531
303
3 2
1 12 14 14
29 51
85 81 38
71 85
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000Thousands
Total PassengersOrlando International Airport
Domestic International
orlando.org
6) Total Passengers, Orlando International Airport
Source: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority, Monthly Passenger Statistics Report