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High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development VMUN 2016 Background Guide 1


Dear Delegates, It is my great pleasure and honour to welcome all of you to the High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development at VMUN 2016. My name is Ken Hong and I will have the privilege of serving as the director of this committee. Currently, I am a grade ten student at St. George’s School. Having been involved with Model United Nations since 2012, this conference will be my fourth time attending VMUN. Through each conference and each caucus, I find myself to be constantly developing my skills and increasing my knowledge. This year, I have chosen two topics that I believe are both exciting and dynamic, while also very current issues in our world today. The titles of the topics are Addressing the Causes and Consequences of Deforestation and Methods and Benefits of Controlling Overpopulation. With both topic areas presenting consequences on a global scale, it will be advantageous for countries to work diplomatically, in collaboration, rather than to work against each other. In the first topic, Addressing the Causes and Consequences of Deforestation, you will be required to find solutions to the alarming rate at which the world’s forest areas are being destroyed. With main reasons being agriculture and improper logging practices and additional causes including illegal logging corporations and short-term economic outlooks, the issue is definitely a complex one. In the second topic Methods and Benefits of Controlling Overpopulation, you will be introduced to the politically-charged and often-contradictory history of population control. Through analyses of current population growth rates and trends, many should be able to see that the current population will become unsustainable. However, the solution to this can be found in several contrastingly different areas, each with their own benefits and disadvantages. Through the conference, I wish for you all to be able to deliver a performance exceeding your existing limitations while constantly honing the expanding skill-set that you possess. To the more inexperienced delegates, I hope that you will ignite the flame of passion inside of you and become fully immersed in the experience! If you have any questions about the topics, the committees, or anything else, please do not hesitate to contact me. On behalf of the committee staff of HLPF, I wish you all the best of luck. Sincerely, Ken Hong Director of the High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development

Jake Hauser Secretary-General

Jason Liu

Director-General

Andrew Tsai Chief of Staff

Claudia Wang

USG General Assemblies

Chris Pang USG Committees

Alvin Tsuei

USG Delegate Affairs 1

Eva Zhang USG Delegate Affairs 2

Ashley Ng

USG Conference

Evan Johnson USG Finance

Isabelle Cheng

USG Sponsorship

Sunny Cui USG Marketing

VANCOUVER MODEL UNITED NATIONS the fifteenth annual conference | January 22-24, 2016


High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development

Position Paper Policy What is a Position Paper? A position paper is a brief overview of a country’s stance on the topics being discussed by a particular committee. Though there is no specific format the position paper must follow, it should include a description of your positions your country holds on the issues on the agenda, relevant actions that your country has taken, and potential solutions that your country would support. At Vancouver Model United Nations, delegates should write a position paper for each of the committee’s topics. Each position paper should not exceed one page, and should all be combined into a single document per delegate. For the High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development, position papers are highly recommended but not mandatory. However, in order to be eligible for an award, delegates must have submitted position papers. Formatting Position papers should: — Include the name of the delegate, his/her country, and the committee — Be in a standard font (e.g. Times New Roman) with a 12-point font size and 1-inch document margins — Not include illustrations, diagrams, decorations, national symbols, watermarks, or page borders — Include citations and a bibliography, in any format, giving due credit to the sources used in research (not included in the 1-page limit) Due Dates and Submission Procedure Position papers for this committee must be submitted by midnight on January 8th, 2016. Once your position paper is complete, please save the file as your last name, your first name and send it as an attachment in an email, to your committee’s email address, with the subject heading as your last name, your first name — Position Paper. Please do not add any other attachments to the email or write anything else in the body. Both your position papers should be combined into a single PDF or Word document file; position papers submitted in another format will not be accepted. Each position paper will be manually reviewed and considered for the Best Position Paper award. The email address for this committee is [email protected].


Table of Contents

Addressing the Causes and Consequences of Deforestation ........................................................ 5 Overview ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 Timeline ............................................................................................................................................................. 6 Historical Analysis ............................................................................................................................................ 7 Current Situation .............................................................................................................................................. 8 Past UN/International Involvement ............................................................................................................. 10 Possible Solutions and Controversies ........................................................................................................... 11 Bloc Positions .................................................................................................................................................. 13

UN-REDD National Programmes and Partner Countries (e.g. Mexico, Argentina, Pakistan) ............... 13 Parties to the Kyoto Protocol with binding targets (e.g. Russia, Japan, Australia, EU) ............................. 13 Countries bordering the Amazon Rainforest (e.g. Brazil, Peru, Colombia) ............................................... 13 Developing nations with no severe deforestation problems (HFLD) (e.g. Guyana, DR Congo) ............. 13 Developed nations with a good environmental record (e.g. Canada, Norway) ......................................... 14

Discussion Questions ..................................................................................................................................... 14 Additional Sources .......................................................................................................................................... 14 References ........................................................................................................................................................ 14

Methods and Benefits of Controlling Overpopulation ............................................................... 18 Overview .......................................................................................................................................................... 18 Timeline ........................................................................................................................................................... 19 Historical Analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 20 Current Situation ............................................................................................................................................ 21 Past UN/International Involvement ............................................................................................................. 24 Possible Solutions and Controversies ........................................................................................................... 26 Bloc Positions .................................................................................................................................................. 27

Developed nations– DT Stage 4-5– stable or rising fertility rates (e.g. United States, France) ................ 27 Developed nations– DT Stage 4-5– declining or low fertility rates (e.g. South Korea, Japan, Canada) . 27 Developing nations and LDCs with high fertility rates and overpopulation (e.g. most of Sub-Saharan Africa, Afghanistan) ........................................................................................................................................... 28

Discussion Questions ..................................................................................................................................... 28 Additional Sources .......................................................................................................................................... 28 References ........................................................................................................................................................ 28


High Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development Topic A

Addressing the Causes and Consequences of Deforestation Overview Approximately 30 percent of the Earth’s surface is covered by forests, providing resources such as food, water, clothing, and shelter to over 1.6 billion people around the world. 1 In these forests live most of the world’s endangered animals and plants. We often take forests for granted, as they accomplish far more than we could ever realize, from emitting the vital oxygen that we breathe to absorbing the carbon dioxide that fuels global warming; they support the world’s countless species of animals and plants and give us scenes of natural beauty. Unfortunately, the sizes of our forests are declining every year; over 13 million hectares of forests are lost annually due to deforestation. 2 Deforestation occurs for many reasons: for agricultural purposes, for commercial logging, for development and construction and so on. The countries most affected by deforestation are countries such as Brazil, Nigeria, and Indonesia.3 Imminent support is needed to reduce the rate of deforestation around the world and to ensure that the removal of trees occurs in an environmentally-friendly, sustainable manner. To preserve the beauty of our mother Earth, we must search for solutions to this destructive issue. Aside from logging and agriculture, many global issues are believed to be related to deforestation. It is often said that deforestation is partially caused by population growth and overpopulation, which places tremendous pressure on the planet’s natural resources.4 Many citizens in developing countries are challenged by hunger and poverty, with a lack of arable land making them resort to deforestation for subsistence farming. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported that at least 120 million hectares of land must be brought into agriculture in developing countries to meet projected food demands.5

Many international organizations, including the United Nations, have recently begun to develop programs addressing the issue of deforestation. One significant example is the mechanism of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, or REDD, that has been used by the United Nations with the objective of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions caused by deforestation.6

1 Deforestation. (2015). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/deforestation 2 WWF - Help fight against deforestation. (2015). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/deforestation/ 3 Deforestation Index 2012 [Image]. (2012). Retrieved from https://maplecroft.com/about/news/deforestation.html 4 Population, Poverty, and Deforestation. (2012, July 11). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://rainforests.mongabay.com/0816.htm 5 Global agriculture towards 2050. (2009). Office of the Director, Agricultural Development Economics Division Economic and Social Development Department. Retrieved from http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/Issues_papers/HLEF2050_Global_Agriculture.pdf. 6 -- UN-REDD Programme - home --. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.un-redd.org/


Logging is often quoted as one of the sources of deforestation; however, research indicates that harvesting trees alone does not cause deforestation.7 Deforestation happens when forests are permanently removed so that the land can be used for something else. In Canada, laws and regulations govern the practices of logging, which state that all areas that are harvested on public land must be reforested, whether through replanting or natural regeneration.8

Figure 1: Map of countries by their rate of deforestation between year 2005 and 2010. 9

Timeline 1972 — The rate of deforestation in the Amazon rainforest begins to accelerate. The Trans-Amazonian highway is opened, facilitating transportation to the area. 1989 — The UN General Assembly passes resolution 44/228, partially initializing the discussion of environmental responsibility and deforestation. 1997 — The Kyoto Protocol is adopted by 37 industrialized countries and the European Community. 10 These states commit themselves to binding targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. 2005 — The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) begins the negotiation of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) mechanism. 11 2007 — Seven non-governmental organizations propose the Pacto pela Valorização da Floresta e pelo Fim do Desmatamento a Amazônia (Agreement on Acknowledging the Value of the Forest and Ending Amazon Deforestation) to the Brazilian Minister of Environment.

7 Deforestation in Canada: Key myths and facts. (2015, June 29). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/forests/fire-insects-disturbances/deforestation/13419 8 Ibid. 9 Deforestation Index 2012 [Image]. (2012). Retrieved from https://maplecroft.com/about/news/deforestation.html 10 Kyoto Protocol. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php 11 -- UN-REDD Programme - home --. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.un-redd.org/


2008 — The United States of America amends the Lacey Act, prohibiting illegally taken, possessed, transported, or sold plants and plant products from being traded. 2009 — Peruvian President Alan Garcia passes the Ley de la Selva (Law of the Jungle) by executive decree,12 allowing the permanent sale of uncultivated Amazon land under Peruvian ownership to private companies. This law was eventually repealed for being unconstitutional. 2010 — The country of Nigeria now only has around 50 percent of the forest area it previously had in 1990.13 In this period, the average temperature in Nigeria increased by 1.1°C, above the global mean increase of 0.74°C. 2013 — The global mean concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide reaches a milestone of 400 ppm (parts per million), from only 280 ppm at the end of the 19th century. 2013 — The Warsaw Framework on REDD+ is produced at the 2013 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Warsaw, providing an initial framework for the implementation of REDD. 2015 — Up to this year, the Norwegian government has donated over 937 million US dollars to the Amazon Fund with the purpose of preventing, monitoring, and combating deforestation. 14 2030 — With current rates of global warming, Arctic summers will be ice-free. 2325 — Assuming current rates of global deforestation continue, all the forest area on Earth will disappear by this year. Historical Analysis Although we are just becoming aware of issues like climate change recently, deforestation is by no means a new occurrence. Throughout history, humans have used wood from trees to fulfill their basic needs. Trees provide us with wood for construction, used for building shelters, tools, and so on. We use wood as fuel to keep warm, to cook, and to smelt metal. Cutting down trees requires no sophisticated technology; a simple ax or a fire would suffice. The ancient societies of our world have also engaged in deforestation. In the Mesolithic cultures of Europe, people actively engaged with forests,15 clearing areas for agriculture and using fire for hunting or other purposes. These initial clearings converted closed forests into open ecosystems, where game animals could thrive more easily. Around 7000 BC, these Mesolithic hunter-gatherers devised the method of using fire to clear large areas of forest.16 An article published in the Oxford Journal of Archaeology demonstrated17 that in this period of time, many trees such as oak and ash were replaced by hazels, grasses, and nettles. Problems that stem from deforestation are by no means a new occurrence, either. In the Roman period, the rapid expansion of the Roman Empire led to a great increase in population, agriculture, and economic development. Wood was widely used as building supply and many trees were cut, in order to 12 "Ley De La Selva En El Perú." - Wikipedia, La Enciclopedia Libre. Web. 17 July 2015. 13 Nigeria Forest Information and Data. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://rainforests.mongabay.com/deforestation/2000/Nigeria.htm 14 Donations. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.amazonfund.gov.br/FundoAmazonia/fam/site_en/Esquerdo/doacoes/ 15 The History of Deforestation. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from https://www.questia.com/magazine/1G1-76402663/the-history-of-deforestation 16 Deforestation. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/151673/ 17 Clearances and Clearings: Deforestation in Mesolithic/Neolithic Britain


house the growing populations throughout the empire. Wood was also the primary source of fuel, essential in industries like mining, metalworking, ceramics, and so on. In 111 BC, the Roman law was amended to encourage widespread clearing of land for agriculture.18 Consequentially, runoff and eroded soil from deforested areas greatly increased the amount of silt and obstructed the flow of water into agricultural areas. In the 3rd century AD, the rate of erosion kept accelerating. This created many marshlands, which were advantageous breeding grounds for insects such as mosquitoes, spreading diseases such as malaria.19 By the end of the middle ages, there had been severe food shortages in Europe due to the minimal amount of primary forest remaining.20 To counter this, there was a transition to a coal-burning economy and the widespread cultivation of maize and potatoes started. From the mid-nineteenth century onward, the rate of deforestation throughout the world has sharply accelerated. It is often said that industrialization and population growth are some of the biggest causes for this acceleration;21 to account for the larger amounts of resources expended every year, more and more forest needed to be cleared. It is estimated that about half of Earth’s tropical forests were destroyed between the year 1947 and now. Up to 90 percent of West Africa’s coastal rainforests have disappeared.22 Similarly, in South Asia, up to 88 percent of the rainforests have been lost. Most of the remaining rainforest in the world lie in the Amazon basin. Rates of deforestation have been declining in recent years; however, a very recent weakening of awareness and legal protections has led to a surge once again in the deforestation rate.23 In 2012, a change in the Forest Code eased restrictions for landowners and allowed those who had illegally cleared land before to be pardoned if they signed an agreement to reforest the area. In the year 2013, the destruction of the Amazon rainforest has increased by almost 33 percent, reversing a trend of decline in the past ten years. Analysts have said that “although deforestation can be reduced rapidly and dramatically by strong policies, it can also increase again when those policies are weakened.”24 Current Situation Forests are of great value to the world’s population. The benefit of this important ecosystem will be lost if the human population continues to aggressively clear forests in the current manner. Agriculture is the by far the most important cause of deforestation, with subsistence farming accounting for 46 percent of total deforestation and commercial agriculture accounting for 32 percent. Other causes include logging, accounting for 14 percent, and usage as fuel at 5 percent.25 It is estimated

18 Williams, M. (2006). Deforesting the earth from prehistory to global crisis : An abridgment. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 19 Deforestation during the Roman period. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation_during_the_Roman_period 20 Cantor, N., & Cantor, N. (1993). The civilization of the Middle Ages: A completely revised and expanded edition of Medieval history, the life and death of a civilization. New York: HarperCollins. 21 Wilson, E. (2003). The future of life. New York: Vintage Books. 22 National Geographic: Eye in the Sky--Deforestation. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015. 23 Amazon deforestation increased by one-third in past year. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/15/amazon-deforestation-increased-one-third 24 Ibid. 25 Deforestation Statistics. (2010, June 29). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.worldpreservationfoundation.org/blog/news/deforestation-statistics/#.VamCPvlVgy4


that the world has already lost around 80 percent of its original forest cover;26 assuming the current rate of deforestation, it will only be a few more centuries until this statistic reaches 100 percent. There are several effects resulting from deforestation: the most important of which being the lack of fresh water, the increase in soil erosion, the decrease in biodiversity, and the change in climate.

Figure 2: The extent of global deforestation, comparing original world forest cover with current areas of forest cover. 27

The most important nutrient for our life is water. Unfortunately, the lack of freshwater on Earth today is also related to deforestation. Trees are able to extract water from the ground through their roots and release it into the atmosphere in the form of water vapor. With the water cycle, this water then precipitates back into our lakes and rivers, providing us with a reliable source of freshwater. However, when an area of forest is removed, the trees no longer perform the transpiration needed, resulting in a drier climate. It is estimated that tropical rainforests produce around 30 percent of Earth’s freshwater.28 Additionally, the decrease in humidity reduces soil cohesion so that erosion, flooding, and landslides become more prevalent. For example, in the Loess Plateau of China, deforestation that occurred centuries ago led to degenerated ecosystems, desertification, and the well-known yellow color of the Yellow River. Roots of the trees are able to bind soil together, making the removal of trees on slopes extremely dangerous due to the increased risk of landslides.29 Tropical forests contain some of the most diverse ecosystems on Earth and deforestation on a global scale is causing the extinction of many species. While these forests only cover around 7 percent of the world’s area, they contain almost 50 percent of its plant and animal species. Recently, some biologists have stated that the key to curing many diseases resides within the biology of the rare plants and animals that live in the rainforests, making preservation more crucial.30 As the landscape is changed, some of these species simply are unable to survive and become extinct. Deforestation depletes our biodiversity by destroying habitats, by separating contiguous areas of forest from each other, and by 26 Ibid. 27 Deforestation Worldwide [Image]. (2012). Retrieved from http://assets.knowledge.allianz.com/media/forests_03.swf 28 "How can you save the rain forest. October 8, 2006. Frank Field". The Times (London). October 8, 2006. Retrieved April 1, 2010. 29 Loess Plateau. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loess_Plateau 30 Ronca, D. (n.d.). How Deforestation Works. Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/deforestation2.htm


interfering with plant reproduction.31 Notably, Mahogany wood, used in furniture and instruments, has been logged unsustainably in the past. By the year 1735, mahogany wood had become increasingly rare in its native country, Jamaica, and the loggers shifted to Central American countries for their supplies. Currently, two out of the three historical species of mahogany are virtually extinct, and the only remaining species provides for the entire global demand.32 There are also economic effects stemming from deforestation. In 2007, the Convention on Biological Diversity concluded that a variety of damages to rivers, marine life, and more importantly forests, could lead a reduction of the global GDP by about 7 percent by the year 2050.33 All nations in the world use wood in one form or another, but the way the wood is used can vary dramatically. Around half of the worldwide consumption of wood is from usage as fuel. For almost 3 billion people, wood is the main source of warmth and cooking.34 Many countries, such as Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan, still face a domestic shortage of wood for this basic purpose. In developed nations, wood is used for the production of building material, paper, packaging, and so on. An average US citizen uses 15 times the amount of wood for this purpose when compared to a citizen in a developing country.35 With all the above effects in mind, the biggest issue related to deforestation is undoubtedly its causation of climate change. After the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation is the second largest human-made source of carbon dioxide emissions, comprising almost 20 percent of total emissions,36 more than the world’s entire transport sector. Forests play a very important role in the carbon cycle of our Earth. Brazil is currently the world’s fourth-largest emitter of carbon dioxide, but this situation does not stem from heavy industry or pollution; just a few years ago, 75 percent of Brazil’s emissions came solely from the activities relating to deforestation,37 the majority being clearing and burning areas of the Amazon rainforest. In order to reduce carbon emissions, and in extension, climate change, it is crucial to reduce the effects of deforestation globally. Past UN/International Involvement There are several international non-profit organizations seeking to reduce the levels of deforestation around the world today. One of the most prominent of these organizations is the Forest Stewardship Council or FSC. Promoting responsible management of the world’s forests, its aims are to set standards, certifications, and labeling regulations for the world’s forest products.38 According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),

“A major condition for the adoption of sustainable forest management is a demand for products that are produced sustainably and consumer willingness to pay for the higher costs entailed. Certification represents a shift from regulatory approaches to market incentives to promote sustainable forest management. By promoting the positive attributes of forest

31 Loss of biodiversity (including genetic diversity). (2010, March 2). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.rainforestconservation.org/rainforest-primer/3-rainforests-in-peril-deforestation/f-consequences-of-deforestation/3-loss-of-biodiversity-including-genetic-diversity/ 32 Ibid. 33 Black, R. (2008, May 29). Nature loss 'to hurt global poor' Retrieved July 18, 2015, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7424535.stm 34 Ibid. 35 Ibid. 36 Ronca, D. (n.d.). How Deforestation Works. Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/deforestation2.htm 37 Brazil has the world’s weirdest carbon footprint. (n.d.). Retrieved July 18, 2015, from http://qz.com/144995/brazil-has-the-worlds-weirdest-carbon-footprint/ 38 Global Strategy. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from https://ic.fsc.org/global-strategy.13.htm


products from sustainably managed forests, certification focuses on the demand side of environmental conservation.”39

The FSC currently has many strategies in place for conservation, the most prominent being its certification program.40 The certification program ensures that products come from well-managed forests that provide environmental, social, and economic benefits. Forest managers or owners contract an accredited certification body to carry out an assessment, and if all requirements are complied with, they are issued an FSC forest management certificate.41 It is possible to find FSC certification on a variety of products worldwide, including paper, lumber, and so on. The United Nations Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (the UN-REDD Programme) was initiated in 2008, in collaboration between the FAO, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).42 It implements the framework proposed under the UNFCCC, REDD. The Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) mechanism has been under negotiation by the UNFCCC since year 2005 with the purpose of mitigating climate change through enhanced forest management in developing countries.43 Through the REDD mechanism, countries are financially rewarded for their verified efforts in reducing their national carbon dioxide emissions. However, there are not many specific mandates on how to implement the mechanism at a national level. Currently, there are 16 countries receiving direct support from UN-REDD to their National Programmes, including Nigeria, Vietnam, and Papua New Guinea. By 2014, there are still no developing countries that have entered the final phase of REDD.44 The World Bank has implemented The Forest Carbon Partnership Facility Readiness Fund for “supporting tropical and sub-tropical developing countries in preparing themselves to participate in a future, large-scale, system of positive incentives for REDD+.”45 The developing countries submit a ‘Readiness Plan’ to the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility and schedule a clear-cut plan to undertake the activities under REDD+. The governing body of the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility then assesses the Readiness Plans, and then allocates grants accordingly to these countries.46 The countries are required to actively consult their civil society and their indigenous peoples as a part of the assessment phase.47 According to the FCPF, it is critical for governments to set up participatory mechanisms to ensure that the indigenous peoples be meaningfully consulted during the formulation and implementation of their country’s strategies and that they benefit from future financial incentives.48 Possible Solutions and Controversies

39 State of the World's Forests 2009. (2009). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0350e/i0350e00.HTM 40 Strengthening Forest Conservation, Communities and Markets. (2007). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from https://ic.fsc.org/download-box.39.htm 41 FSC Certification. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from https://ic.fsc.org/fsc-certification.4.htm 42 -- UN-REDD Programme - home --. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.un-redd.org/ 43 Ibid. 44 Ibid. 45 The Readiness Fund. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from https://www.forestcarbonpartnership.org/readiness-fund-0 46 Ibid. 47 A Guide to the FCPF Readiness Assessment Framework. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from https://www.forestcarbonpartnership.org/sites/fcp/files/2013/July2013/FCPC framework text 7-25-13 ENG web.pdf 48 The Readiness Fund. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from https://www.forestcarbonpartnership.org/readiness-fund-0


Reforestation provides a seemingly simple solution to the issue of deforestation. Currently, many countries, such as China, Germany, and the United States are looking into the prospect of reforestation. Reforestation negates some of the negative effects of deforestation, such as the effects on the global climate caused by deforestation. Reforestation can bring many benefits to a country, including the rejuvenation of plants and animals, the recapturing of carbon dioxide emissions, and the restoration of loose soil.49 This is advantageous especially in tropical areas, where trees have a quicker growth rate due to the hot and humid climate. Experts estimate that approximately 18 percent of the annual global carbon dioxide emissions are being absorbed by tropical trees.50 However, these benefits come with drawbacks. Some argue that reforestation should be considered to be of secondary importance when considering issues such as a lack of food or living space. For countries with water shortages, reforestation can divert large amounts of water from the small amount available. It is also important to consider the opinions of the local population; a document released by the FAO states that:

“Most reforestations have been carried out by governments on behalf of large corporations or by the large corporations themselves, and the profits have tended to go to these industries… Sometimes, reforestation has actually disadvantaged local communities… For example, in some cases reforestation has been carried out on land where ownership is disputed, including areas where traditional owners may dispute the assertion of state ownership. In some cases, the lands being planted were already being used by rural communities for other purposes. These communities had to be evicted before reforestation could occur, and planting was carried out by external contractors. In such cases, it is not surprising that failures have occurred when new plantations have been deliberately burned by aggrieved local communities.” 51

From this, it is clear that any reforestation undertaken in the future must be planned carefully; a strategy would be to replant new forests resembling those originally present in order to ensure that the original wildlife habitats and biodiversity has a chance of being restored. Another important contributor to deforestation is the unsustainable usage of forest products in developed countries. Around 30 percent of all waste in the United States is composed of paper. 52Although most countries have education programs regarding the overuse of paper, there are many that still do not. With initiatives like the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC), it is important that more countries commit to these programmes to ensure a green future. Many countries that experience deforestation are currently not committed to any programme for the reduction of their deforestation.53 As stated above, agriculture comprises around 70 percent of all causes of deforestation. With the advent of modern technologies, many new agricultural innovations make it possible to obtain the same yield with a smaller area of land. These technologies include greenhouses, hydroponics, and genetically-modified, high-yield hybrid crops.54 Many of these technologies are currently being

49 Reforestation and Afforestation. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.greencollar.org/reforestation_afforestation.html 50 Fifth of world carbon emissions soaked up by extra forest growth, scientists find. (2009, February 18). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/feb/18/trees-tropics-climate-change 51 Helping forests take cover. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/ae945e/ae945e00.htm#Contents 52 Paper Waste Facts. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/Paper-Waste-Facts 53 -- UN-REDD Programme - home --. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.un-redd.org/ 54 Zappa, M. (2014, May 5). 15 Emerging Agriculture Technologies That Will Change The World. Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.businessinsider.com/15-emerging-agriculture-technologies-2014-4


developed and tested in developed countries with varying amounts of success. However, many of these technologies are costly when compared to traditional agriculture, deterring developing nations from using these technologies. In order to reduce the total amount of deforestation, it would be effective to consider the discussion of these innovative agricultural technologies. Sometimes, deforestation can bring a short-term economic boost, which leads many nations to exploit their forests in order to obtain this short-term boost. Through conversion of forest to agriculture, or over-exploitation of wood products, many nations experience a loss in long-term income and productivity. Annually, billions of dollars are lost to illegal logging in Africa and Southeast Asia. Corporations disregard laws and regulations regarding deforestation and continue to clear trees, selling the products for a profit. The goal of this committee is to create a comprehensive agreement that will contain solutions that will address the most important aspects of this complex issue. Bloc Positions UN-REDD National Programmes and Partner Countries (e.g. Mexico, Argentina, Pakistan) With a defined set of goals to meet, these countries only need to find ways to implement programs for reducing their current deforestation. However, this is easier said than done. These countries need to prioritize their own development and find ways to reduce the causes of deforestation that are of the highest importance to them, the most important being fuel and agriculture. If these basic requirements cannot be satisfied, these countries cannot move on to more advanced technologies for sustainable forest development. Parties to the Kyoto Protocol with binding targets (e.g. Russia, Japan, Australia, EU) These countries have received specific legally binding targets for reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. As stated above, deforestation contributes to almost 20 percent of global emissions. It is critical for these countries to meet these binding targets, as doing otherwise would greatly violate their credibility in the global community. The majority of these are developed countries, which need to focus on reducing the usage of forest products produced from unsustainable foresting practices. Countries bordering the Amazon Rainforest (e.g. Brazil, Peru, Colombia) These countries are some of the most affected by deforestation. The issue should be considered a national emergency to these states (and is already classified a national emergency by Brazil). Deforestation is currently having devastating effects on the ecosystems and economies of these countries and these countries need to convince the committee to place emphasis on their rainforests before addressing the deforestation problems of other nations. Developing nations with no severe deforestation problems (HFLD) (e.g. Guyana, DR Congo) Deforestation is a global issue. The changes to our climate brought by deforestation will have an impact on all nations in this world, not only the ones facing the issue of deforestation. With that said, there is high pressure from corporations to allow for higher levels of logging within these countries and the countries need to decide on whether the increased economic benefits will be beneficial in the long-term.


Developed nations with a good environmental record (e.g. Canada, Norway) With some of the cleanest environmental records on hand, these countries are some of the very few where there has been a net forest growth in the past few years. Many of these countries are historically responsible for the current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and thus, must take a responsibility in the funding and aiding of the programs implemented. Many of these countries are also signatories to the Kyoto protocol with binding targets for emission reductions. Discussion Questions

1. How can a comprehensive agreement be enacted with the cooperation of the entire global community?

2. Even with a framework in place, what are some specific measures that can be implemented to combat deforestation?

3. When addressing deforestation, is it more effective to focus on the developing countries or the developed countries?

4. How can countries with a good environmental record provide assistance to countries struggling with this issue?

5. With deforestation bringing a short period of slight economic growth, what can developed countries do to convince developing countries to have farther outlooks?

6. Is it possible to offset the higher costs related to the implementation of sustainable forest practices?

7. When discussing deforestation, is it a priority to consider effects such as biodiversity and erosion or is it strategic to focus solely on the effect of climate change?

8. Is it a priority to enact reforestation or reduce deforestation? Additional Sources This is a good introduction to the effects and causes of deforestation from the World Wildlife Fund. https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/deforestation This is a brief introduction to the relation between deforestation and climate change. http://www.worldpreservationfoundation.org/topic.php?cat=climateChange&vid=24#.Vas8C_lVgy4 This page contains more information about the UN-REDD and REDD+ programs. http://www.un-redd.org/AboutUN-REDDProgramme This is a page about the consequences of deforestation in the Amazon, with a section on its effects on biodiversity. http://sitemaker.umich.edu/sec005group6/local_problems This is a page describing the vision and mission of the Forest Stewardship Council. https://ca.fsc.org/vision-mission.347.htm References Global agriculture towards 2050. (2009). Office of the Director, Agricultural

Development Economics Division Economic and Social Development Department. Retrieved from


http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/Issues_papers/HLEF2050_Global_Agriculture.pdf.

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http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/wilderness-resources/blogs/21-reasons-why-forests-are-important

Loss of biodiversity (including genetic diversity). (2010, March 2). Retrieved July 17,

2015, from http://www.rainforestconservation.org/rainforest-primer/3-rainforests-in-peril-deforestation/f-consequences-of-deforestation/3-loss-of-biodiversity-including-genetic-diversity/

A Guide to the FCPF Readiness Assessment Framework. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015,

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Amazon deforestation increased by one-third in past year. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/15/amazon-deforestation-increased-one-third

Brazil has the world’s weirdest carbon footprint. (n.d.). Retrieved July 18, 2015, from

http://qz.com/144995/brazil-has-the-worlds-weirdest-carbon-footprint/ Brown, T. (n.d.). Clearances and Clearings: Deforestation in Mesolithic/Neolithic Britain.

Oxford Journal of Archaeology Oxford J Archeol, 133-146. Cantor, N., & Cantor, N. (1993). The civilization of the Middle Ages: A completely revised and

expanded edition of Medieval history, the life and death of a civilization. New York: HarperCollins.

Deforestation. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from

https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/deforestation Deforestation. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/151673/ Deforestation. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation Deforestation Statistics. (2010, June 29). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from

http://www.worldpreservationfoundation.org/blog/news/deforestation- statistics/#.VamCPvlVgy4

Deforestation during the Roman period. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation_during_the_Roman_period Deforestation in Canada: Key myths and facts. (2015, June 29). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from


http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/forests/fire-insects-disturbances/deforestation/13419 Donations. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from

http://www.amazonfund.gov.br/FundoAmazonia/fam/site_en/Esquerdo/doacoes/ EO Library: Tropical Deforestation Fact Sheet. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from

http://www.trfic.msu.edu/data_portal/Landsat7doc/defor_fact.html FSC Certification. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from https://ic.fsc.org/fsc-certification.4.htm

Fifth of world carbon emissions soaked up by extra forest growth, scientists find. (2009, February 18). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/feb/18/trees-tropics-climate-change

Forest Products. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/deforest/deforest.html Forest products. (n.d.). Retrieved July 18, 2015, from http://atlas.aaas.org/pdf/63-66.pdf Global Strategy. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from https://ic.fsc.org/global-strategy.13.htm Helping forests take cover. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from

http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/ae945e/ae945e00.htm#Contents Kyoto Protocol. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from

http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php Ley de la Selva en el Perú. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ley_de_la_Selva_en_el_Perú Loess Plateau. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loess_Plateau

Loss of Renewable Resources and Wildlife Conflict Resulting from Deforestation. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://rainforests.mongabay.com/0905.htm

National Geographic: Eye in the Sky--Deforestation. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015. Nigeria Forest Information and Data. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from

http://rainforests.mongabay.com/deforestation/2000/Nigeria.htm Paper Waste Facts. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from

http://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/Paper-Waste-Facts Population, Poverty, and Deforestation. (2012, July 11). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from

http://rainforests.mongabay.com/0816.htm Reforestation and Afforestation. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from

http://www.greencollar.org/reforestation_afforestation.html Ronca, D. (n.d.). How Deforestation Works. Retrieved July 17, 2015, from

http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/deforestation2.htm State of the World's Forests 2009. (2009). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from


http://www.fao.org/docrep/011/i0350e/i0350e00.HTM The History of Deforestation. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from

https://www.questia.com/magazine/1G1-76402663/the-history-of-deforestation The Readiness Fund. (n.d.). Retrieved July 19, 2015, from

https://www.forestcarbonpartnership.org/readiness-fund-0 WWF - Help fight against deforestation. (n.d.). Retrieved July 17, 2015, from

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/deforestation/ Williams, M. (2006). Deforesting the earth from prehistory to global crisis : An

abridgment. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Wilson, E. (2003). The future of life. New York: Vintage Books. Zappa, M. (2014, May 5). 15 Emerging Agriculture Technologies That Will Change The World.

Retrieved July 19, 2015, from http://www.businessinsider.com/15-emerging-agriculture-technologies-2014-4


High Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development Topic B

Methods and Benefits of Controlling Overpopulation Overview

Figure 1: Map of the world, area scaled to countries’ relative populations.55

The largest global threat in the next few decades will be the disruption to the global climate caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although many solutions have been proposed in order to reduce the global carbon emissions, they are easily overwhelmed by the current unsustainable levels of population growth.56 Many around the world are reducing their carbon footprint through less consumption and better technology; it is probable that we need not only smaller carbon footprints but fewer feet as well. Population control is not a new concept – Aristotle advocated the use of abortion and promoted infanticide for reducing population growth.57 The annual growth rate of the world’s population has been declining steadily since around 1990 and is projected to keep doing so well past 2040.58 However, the world’s population is still steadily increasing.59 Currently, there are several countries with

55 Image. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.buzzhunt.co.uk/wp-content/2014/01/World-map-sizes.png 56 HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/climate/ 57 Neurath, P. (1994). From Malthus to the Club of Rome and back: Problems of limits to growth, population control, and migrations (pp. 6-7). Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe. 58 Overcrowding? Nah - the World's Population May Actually Be Declining. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/01/11/overcrowding-nah-the-worlds-population-may-actually-be-declining/ 59 What's Driving the Decline in U.S. Population Growth? (n.d.).August 25, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2012/us-population-growth-decline.aspx


population control practices, the most prominent being China’s one-child policy. Other countries that practice or have practiced population control include India, Myanmar, and Uzbekistan.60 Population growth is a change in the size of a population, which can be either positive or negative over time. The rate of growth depends on the numbers of births and deaths. If there are relatively many deaths, the population will grow very slowly or decline. If there are many relatively many births, the population will grow fast. This growth is measurable in both relative and absolute terms. Relative growth is measured in the population growth rate, which is the rate at which the number of individuals increases in a given time period. The global population growth rate is currently around 1.1 percent per year, which approximately equals a 75 million person annual increase.61 In 2008 study by the Oregon State University, the environmental benefits of population control were compared with the benefits of various daily ‘eco-friendly’ technologies. Various actions result in various levels of emission reductions. By increasing a car’s fuel economy from 20 to 30 mpg, a person in the United States will save 148 metric tons of CO2 in his lifetime. By replacing single-glazed windows with energy-efficient windows, 121 metric tons are saved. In comparison, by reducing his number of children by one, 9 441 metric tons of CO2 could be saved. This number varies with different countries, as the average emissions of a citizen are different in each country. On average, children born in the United States will contribute to the emission of 9 441 metric tons of CO2; children born in China, 1 384 metric tons of CO2; and children born in Bangladesh, only 56 metric tons.62 As shown above, while the population growth rate is fastest in many developing countries, the per capita emissions in developed countries such as United States greatly exceed those of developing countries, making a population control plan many times more productive in a developed country.63 In the background guide, several past programs are analyzed for their effectiveness in population control and their related consequences. There is also an outline of the benefits of population control to sustainability and a description of related controversy. Timeline 1804 — The global population reaches 1 billion.64 1969 — The United Nations Fund for Population Activities (now the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)) is established, with the goal “to reduce poverty and to ensure that every pregnancy is wanted.”65 1970 — Singapore enacts the ‘Stop at Two’ program, with disincentives to dissuade parents from having more than two children.66

60 Human Population Control. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_population_control 61 World population to hit 11bn in 2100 – with 70% chance of continuous rise. (2014, September 18).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/18/world-population-new-study-11bn-2100 62 OSU Carbon Study. (n.d.).August 25, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/pdfs/OSUCarbonStudy.pdf 63 Ibid. 64 United States Census Bureau. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/popclock/world 65 About us. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.unfpa.org/about-us 66 Singapore Population Control Policies. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.photius.com/countries/singapore/society/singapore_society_population_control_p~11008.html


1980 — China enacts the family planning policy, colloquially known in the west as the ‘one-child policy’ in order to alleviate social, economic, and environmental problems.67 1987 — The global population reaches 5 billion. 1987 — Singapore alleviates its family planning program, the ‘Stop at Two’ program amidst rapidly declining fertility rates and a shrinking population. 1989 — Iran enacts a population control policy, launching a nationwide campaign withdrawing many benefits for families who choose to have more than three children.68 2007 — China’s annual population growth rate is 0.5 percent, compared to 2.8 percent in 1971.69 2011 — The global population reaches 7 billion. 2012 — Iran withdraws its population control policy and encourages families to have more children. 2013 — China relaxes the one-child policy. Under the new policy, families can have two children if one of the parents is an only child. It was first implemented in Zhejiang province in January 2014.70 2042 — The global population is estimated to reach 9 billion. 2150 — While highly unlikely, assuming fertility remains at 1995 levels, the global population will reach 256 billion, 169 billion of which will live in Africa.71 Historical Analysis Since the dawn of humanity until very recently, the growth of the global population has been very slow. Historically, many threats such as diseases and climate fluctuations kept life expectancy short and death rates high.72 Around 8000 BCE, at the initial rise of modern agriculture, the population of the world was approximately 5 million. By 1 BCE, this number had substantially grown to over 200 million. In the 14th century, the Black Death reduced the global population from 450 million to around 350 million.73 Europe’s population did not rebound to its pre-Black Death levels until 200 years later. When the Ming dynasty was founded in 1368, China’s population stood close to 60 million and by the end of the dynasty, in 1644, the population had grown to 150 million.74 67 Kane, P., & Choi, C. (n.d.). China’s one child family policy. August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1116810/ 68 Iran's Family Program is succeeding. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.overpopulation.org/Iran Popline Jun98.html 69 Population growth (annual %). (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW 70 Qing, D. (2015, June 13). Relaxing China’s One-Child Policy. August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/13/opinion/relaxing-chinas-one-child-policy.html?_r=0 71 KEY FINDINGS. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrangeKeyFind.pdf 72 Unit 5: Human Population Dynamics. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from https://www.learner.org/courses/envsci/unit/text.php?unit=5&secNum=4 73 United States Census Bureau. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html 74 Qing China's Internal Crisis. (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/special/china_1750_demographic.htm


Figure 2: Historical world population and recent rapid growth.75

Normally, large increases in human population only occur when the fertility rate exceeds the death rate for an extended period. The fertility rate is often influenced by cultural and social norms, making it relatively stable. When living conditions improve and the death rate decreases, it often takes a long time for the fertility rate to adjust and adapt. Since the Industrial Revolution, living conditions have improved radically and the death rate dropped significantly. Many major milestones contributed to these increases, including improved sanitation, water quality, quarantines, medical treatments, the development of vaccines, the adoption of workplace safety laws, and the promotion of nutrition. By the end of the 18th century, the world’s population was rapidly approaching 1 billion.76 In 1964, the global population growth rate peaked at over 2 percent per year. India’s population grew from 361.1 million in 1951 to over 1.2 billion in 2011, a 235 percent increase in 60 years. Many concerns have arisen from the sharp population increases, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. A report from the African Technology Forum states that the overpopulation is creating many problems with land management, natural resources, and access to water supplies.77 Many countries have attempted to enact population control systems, with various levels of success. The most well-known is the People’s Republic of China’s ‘one-child policy’, which was able to reduce the population growth rate of the most populated country on Earth drastically. Other countries, such as India, Iran, Myanmar, Singapore, and Uzbekistan have all adopted population control methods within the past century, with varying levels of success. Current Situation There are many benefits to controlling population growth, outlined in the following section. Analyses of growth trends and projections below will further assist with the understanding of the ultimate

75 File:Population curve.svg. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Population_curve.svg 76 United States Census Bureau. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html 77 The Environmental Challenges In Sub Saharan Africa. (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://web.mit.edu/africantech/www/articles/EnvChall.htm


reasons of rapid population growth. Delegates must consider all the different areas of this topic, and potentially formulate a plan for controlling the global population boom. As of 2015, there are approximately 7.4 billion people alive. As a resident of Earth, each individual consumes the earth’s resources and causes the emission of greenhouse gases. There exist many different predictions concerning population growth projections, with different methodologies. The theory by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs projected in 2004 that most probably, the population will grow steadily until around 2060-2070, when it will peak at 9.22 billion and begin to decline gradually. In the report, there are three scenarios: a high, medium, and low projection.78

“Under the assumptions made in the medium scenario projection, world population will not vary greatly after reaching 8.92 billion in 2050 (figure 6). In another 25 years, by 2075, it is projected to peak at 9.22 billion, only 3.4 per cent above the 2050 estimate. It will then dip slightly to 8.43 billion by 2175 and rise gradually to 8.97 billion, very close to the initial 2050 figure, by 2300. Therefore, world population growth beyond 2050, at least for the following 250 years, is expected to be minimal.”79

However, the medium scenario assumes an optimistic situation where fertility rates continue to decline to a below-replacement level of 1.85 children per woman. Contrarily, many scholars believe that such a decline is improbable and the UN DESA projection fails to consider several important factors.80

Figure 3: UN DESA Projection: Estimated world population 2000-2300.81

78 World Population to 2300 | ST/ESA/SER.A/236. (2004). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf 79 Ibid. 80 Gerland, P., Raftery, A., Ev Ikova, H., Li, N., Gu, D., Spoorenberg, T., . . . Wilmoth, J. (2014). World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science, 234-237. Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://www.sciencemag.org/content/346/6206/234 81 Ibid.


A researcher from the University of Washington wrote in a 2014 journal that “[the] projections up to about 10 years ago projected word population to keep growing to about 9 billion in 2050, then to level off or decline… but our results suggest this leveling off is unlikely.” Instead, they expect a large increase in the population of Africa, from the current 1 billion to over 4 billion by 2100. According to the study, although the fertility rates have fallen significantly from a peak of 6.5 children per woman, they have levelled off at approximately 4.6 instead of continuing to drop as projected. “[Better] survival from HIV – which often kills mothers and their babies – and lack of available contraception” were quoted as reasons. According to the projections, the stalled decline in fertility means that the population of the most populated African country, Nigeria, would soar from the current 160 million to over 914 million by 2100. According to the team, the probability of the global population stabilizing by 2100 is only 30 percent.82 The predictions from these projections are drawing criticism from experts. Wolfgang Lutz from the International Institute for Applied System Analysis states, “[his] projections are too high for Africa, because they don’t include the fact that female education is the key driver of fertility decline.” In his own analysis, it is suggested that the growing prevalence of education for women will eventually cause African fertility rates to decline as expected.83 In Lutz’s analysis, women from Ghana average 5.7 children, but those with junior and secondary education have only 3.2 and those with post-secondary education only 1.5. However, both experts agree on a common method of stemming the population surge in Africa: “The two policies known to have an effect are increased access to contraception and increased education for women… These are the key to bringing down fertility rates in Africa, in addition to leading to better health and economic growth.”

Figure 4: Correlation between fertility rate and education.84

Currently, fertility rates are highest where women do not have access to free contraception and sex education. According to the WHO, 53 percent of African women of reproductive age have an unmet

82 Ibid. 83 Lutz, W. (n.d.). A Population Policy Rationale for the Twenty-First Century. Population and Development Review, 527-544. Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00696.x/pdf 84 Women’s Education and Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa. (2011, November 1). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/edugloft/download/S2-Shapiro.pdf


need for modern contraception.85 With abortion facilities being highly unsafe, the lack of contraception leads these women to have many unwanted births. Anita Masaki, the project officer for the Forum for African Women Educationalists, says, “If a woman is educated, she plans her life, she plans her family, she educates her children and lifts her descendants out of poverty."86 It is estimated that, with the growing population, the planet’s limited resources will not be able to keep up with such growth. A report by the Worldwatch Institute in 2006 indicates several areas in which resources will be insufficient in the next few centuries. The report states that “The world’s ecological capacity is simply insufficient to satisfy the ambitions of China, India, Japan, Europe, and the United States as well as the aspirations of the rest of the world.” In 2005, China alone used 26 percent of the world’s steel, 32 percent of the rice, 47 percent of the cement – even with these numbers, per capita consumption is still low compared to developed countries such as the United States and Japan.87 The report estimates that, in 2030, “they would require a full planet Earth to meet their needs” if China and India were to consume as many resources per capita as Japan has.88 The carrying capacity of an ecological system is a calculation of the maximum possible population size that the system can sustain indefinitely, taking into account the available supplies of food, shelter, water, and similar resources. Earth’s carrying capacity is, effectively, the maximum population we can sustain on this planet. With malnutrition and famine being an important global issue, it is important to analyze the maximum carrying capacity based on the amount of arable land existing. This arable land amounts to approximately 1.4 billion hectares, which would support about 10 billion people assuming everyone held to a vegetarian diet.89 However, with the United States level of consumption, much of this land is dedicated to maintaining livestock and poultry, which results in only enough food for 2.5 billion people. On average, a citizen of the Earth uses 50% more than the resources that Earth is producing at that moment.90 Over a long term, this will lead to a rapid depletion of the Earth’s resources. While conservation is often stated as a solution to these problems, a combination of conservation and population control would lead to more effective, faster results. The issue of overpopulation is often a taboo one due to the moral issues and complex history behind it. It is an issue that many scholars, politicians, and environmentalists refuse to discuss. However, there exists an optimal population for the planet, and all countries will benefit if we start to discuss this issue now. In this committee, delegates need to address both the control of global population growth and the methods for ensuring population control on a country-by-country basis; both issues are highly related. Past UN/International Involvement The section below contains two case studies of past examples of population control, intended to further the understanding of the ideologies, methods, and effects from some of the most prevalent population control systems.

85 Family planning / contraception. (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs351/en/ 86 Why women's education in Tanzania is critical for slowing population growth. (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2011/oct/24/women-education-tanzania-population 87 Nierenberg, D. (2006). State of the world 2006: A Worldwatch Institute report on progress toward a sustainable society. New York: W.W. Norton. 88 Ibid. 89 Wolchover. (2011, October 11). How Many People Can Earth Support? Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://www.livescience.com/16493-people-planet-earth-support.html 90 Ibid.


Currently, the most significant population control system in place is China’s family planning policy, often known as the one-child policy. The policy was introduced in 1978 and officially enacted in 1980 to help China alleviate its social and environmental problems. Previously, the administration of Mao Zedong held the belief that population growth was empowering the country.91 The policy states, with only a few exceptions, that each couple was only to have one child. The benefits of the plan included increased availability of education, and childcare and healthcare benefits. Those who did not comply with the policy did not receive the benefits. Families with additional children were fined heavily. The policy was highly successful, leading to a constant decrease of the fertility rate since 1980.92 China’s current population is slated to grow by less as compared to other countries with large populations, such as India or Nigeria. The adoption of the policy, however, comes with its own consequences. One of the most severe is the imbalance of the sex ratio. Traditionally, Chinese families have preferred male children over females, for a variety of cultural reasons. These include the capability to carry on the family name and the capacity for higher wages. The natural human sex ratio at birth is approximately 105:100 (105 boys for every 100 girls born), while in China the average is currently 117:100. There is a discrepancy of this ratio between urban and rural areas, with some rural areas approaching a ratio of 140:100.93 Another problem resulting from the one-child policy is the potential social problems that often arise within the only child. Seeing the child as their only, many parents over-indulge their child, leading to children lacking self-discipline and having no adaptive capabilities. Many of these children have a high tendency towards poor communication and cooperation skills due to the lack of any siblings.94 The Chinese government has claimed that the one-child policy has helped provide better health services for women, including a reduction in the risks of pregnancy. At family planning offices across China, women receive free contraception and pre-natal classes. This has led to China’s women having one of the highest rates of access to birth control globally. Additionally, the policy leads to the average family expending less on Children, giving the Chinese population more money with which to invest. Another population control program, albeit less well known, is the ‘Stop at Two’ program enacted by Singapore in the 1970s. In 1970, fertility rates in Singapore sharply raised as the women from the post-WWII baby boom reached maturity. In 1970, abortion and sterilization were both legalized.95 This program lacked the harsh penalties of China’s one-child policy; rather, an array of disincentives was used to dissuade parents for having more than two children. Some of the disincentives include workers not receiving maternity leave for any subsequent children; parents could not receive income tax deductions for any subsequent children; children could not attend top-tier schools if they were not born under recommendation of the program.96 The program was effective in reducing the population growth rate of Singapore, from approximately 5 percent annually in the 1950s to 2.5 percent annually in 1965.97 However, the program was also criticized for its views and practices. The prime minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, was quoted as saying in 1969:

91 Potts, M. (n.d.). China's One Child Policy. BMJ, 361-362. 92 Kane, P., & Choi, C. (n.d.). China’s one child family policy. August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1116810/ 93 Ibid. 94 Thinking Chinese - Chinese Singletons - Basic 'Spoiled' Related Vocabulary. (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://thinkingchinese.com/index.php?page_id=117 95 Singapore Population Control Policies. (n.d.).August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.photius.com/countries/singapore/society/singapore_society_population_control_p~11008.html 96 Ibid. 97 Ibid.


“We must encourage those who earn less than $200 per month and cannot afford to nurture and educate many children never to have more than two...we will regret the time lost if we do not now take the first tentative steps towards correcting a trend which can leave our society with a large number of the physically, intellectually and culturally anemic.”98

As Singapore modernized rapidly in the 1970s, the fertility rate dropped constantly. By 1980, it was clear that the program implemented 10 years ago had brought upon more severe repercussions. There was a new demographic trend, which showed the results of the propaganda: almost all college-educated women were less likely to marry and procreate. In 1983, Lee deemed the trend “a serious social problem.” The government gradually reversed many of its previous policies. Abortion and sterilization were discouraged. In 1987, the ‘Stop at Two’ program was abolished, with the government establishing equal support for families having over three children.99 Possible Solutions and Controversies Before a country adopts a population control policy, several factors need to be taken into consideration. Several methods of population control have been used historically, the most prominent of which include government policy and education. China and Singapore’s population control systems both used propaganda and government policy as means of controlling the growing population within the countries. From this, effects were imminent and population growth rate was sharply reduced. A survey in 2008 indicates that as much as 76 percent of the Chinese government supports the one-child policy; however, the policy remains controversial outside China, often subject to human rights allegations and concerns about the social development of the only children.100 Furthermore, propaganda and government control are far from being the only methods for controlling population growth. In 2000, the World Education Forum, involving organizations such as UNESCO and the World Bank, held discussions related to the role of education in the context of population growth and development. The report concludes that there is a high level of correlation between women’s education and the reduction of the fertility rate; therefore, advances in education must also be considered when addressing this issue:

“Among the most consistent relationships identified by demographic studies is that between the education of women and fertility (Bledsoe, 1999). Aggregate data at the country level show that lower levels of fertility are associated with higher levels of education (United Nations 1973 and 1989). Survey data confirm the finding that better educated women tend to bear fewer and healthier children than women with little or no education. Data from the World Fertility Surveys carried out in the 1970s show that women with seven or more years of education have, on average, 3.9 children at the end of their reproductive lives, while those with no schooling would have 6.9 children, that is, almost 80 percent more (United Nations, 1987).”101

98 Lee Kuan Yew and Adolf Hitler. (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://yoursdp.org/publ/political_hors_d_39_uvre/lee_kuan_yew_and_adolf_hitler/4-1-0-609 99 Singapore: Changes in a population policy. (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/ks3/geography/places/contrasts_within_continent/revision/6/ 100 Kane, P., & Choi, C. (n.d.). China’s one child family policy. August 27, 2015, Retrieved from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1116810/ 101 WEF (Thematic Studies). (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://www.unesco.org/education/wef/en-leadup/findings_demography 1.shtm


There also exists the belief that population control is a violation of human rights. However, human rights can be conditional at times; the conditional nature of reproduction is outlined in the United Nations 1966 Declaration on Population – “The majority of parents desire to have the knowledge and the means to plan their families; that the opportunities to decide the number and spacing of children is a basic human right.”102 In the International Conference on Human Rights 1968, held in Tehran, Resolution XVII on the Human Rights Aspects of Family Planning was adopted. In paragraph 3 of its operatives, it states, “couples have a basic human right to decide freely and responsibly on the number and spacing of their children and a right to adequate education and information in this respect.”103 An analysis by the East-West Center notes that in the wording of the operative, there is mention of the necessity of “responsibly” deciding the number of children; ensuring that the number of children born does not exceed the number of children that the parents are able to support.104 In more liberal interpretations of the resolution, some would also extend the concept of responsibility to include childbearing at a level that poses no threat to either the environment or the well-being of the community or society. The analysis also notes that the tension, created between the freedom of the parents and their responsibility to society, leads to disagreements about whether population control is violating human rights, especially in western countries where individual freedoms are more strongly emphasized.105 Bloc Positions *For more information on the demographic transition, consult the Additional Sources section. Developed nations– DT Stage 4-5– stable or rising fertility rates (e.g. United States, France)

These countries are generally near the replacement fertility rate and have low population growth rates. The population increase within these countries is controlled well. These countries should serve as a role model for population control, as ultimately all countries are striving towards becoming a country with similar population growth patterns. With strong economies, these countries can do much to provide support for various programs. Developed nations– DT Stage 4-5– declining or low fertility rates (e.g. South Korea, Japan, Canada) These countries, once past the demographic transition, have seen moderate to steep declines in the fertility rate and potentially declines to their own population. In many cases, more and more youth are less inclined to procreate. These countries should find ways to ensure that their own population does not decline by much if they decide to adopt any form of population control. Otherwise, with generally strong economies, these countries can do much to provide support for various programs.

102 United Nations Population Division | Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/theme/rights/ 103 Ibid. 104 Do Population Programs Violate Women's Human Rights? (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://www.eastwestcenter.org/fileadmin/stored/pdfs/api015.pdf 105 Ibid.


Developing nations and LDCs with high fertility rates and overpopulation (e.g. most of Sub-Saharan Africa, Afghanistan) These countries have the biggest issues with overpopulation and do not have the economic resources or infrastructure to implement expensive plans. Many of these countries lack education programs for women and access to free contraception. Corruption in the government can potentially lead to aid money being wasted. Therefore, it is crucial for other countries to find effective ways to help these countries in combating their problems, as population growth is a global issue, the consequences of which can happen on a global scale. Discussion Questions

9. Is it acceptable for nations to adopt a population control system or is it a violation of basic human rights?

10. Seeing the repercussions of China’s one-child policy, what steps can be taken to ensure such systems in the future are able to mitigate these effects?

11. When implementing a population control system, is it effective to control the citizens with law and/or propaganda?

12. Is it enough to stabilize the global population at around 8 – 9 billion or is it necessary for a reduction to the level in which consumption equals production (2 – 3 billion)?

13. Is education a priority in addressing the topic of population control? 14. What are the benefits of a population control plan and how will it help create a more

sustainable future? 15. How can countries cooperate in the resolution of this issue?

Additional Sources This is a quick introduction to the demographic transition, a theory explaining the connection between industrialization and population growth rate. https://www.populationeducation.org/content/what-demographic-transition-model This is the United Nations’2004 Population Projection, giving a brief overview of the scale of the issue. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf This is a brief case study on China’s one-child policy. http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/geography/population/managing_population_rev3.shtml This is a document outlining the relation between human rights and population control. http://www.eastwestcenter.org/fileadmin/stored/pdfs/api015.pdf References About us. (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from http://www.unfpa.org/about-us Do Population Programs Violate Women's Human Rights? (n.d.). Retrieved August 27, 2015, from

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