highlights: 2015 fall enrollment estimates
TRANSCRIPT
Highlights:2015 Enrollment Estimates
Board of Higher Education Meeting | October 27, 2015
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Fall-2005
Fall-2006
Fall-2007
Fall-2008
Fall-2009
Fall-2010
Fall-2011
Fall-2012
Fall-2013
Fall-2014
Fall-2015
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
160,928
188,120
196,847194,371
190,822
Fall Undergraduate Enrollment: System Total
Highlights: 2015 Enrollment EstimatesSecond Year of Decline in Last 10 Years
Peak Year
-6,205 Decline
from Peak
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Highlights: 2015 Enrollment EstimatesConsensus Among Multiple Projections
400004500050000550006000065000700007500080000
Num
ber
Hig
h Sc
hool
Gra
d-ua
tes
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
Fall
Hea
dcou
nt
Donahue: Public Higher Ed Enrollments
WICHE: High School Graduates
NCES: 2010-2023 Change in Public High School GraduatesDecline 5% or more
Decline up to 5%Grow up to 5%Grow 5% or more
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Highlights: 2015 Enrollment EstimatesEnrollment Booms and Busts are Normal
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2015100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
166,674
148,538
196540
190822
Fall Undergraduate Enrollment: 1988–2015
Source: MA DHE, USDOE
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Highlights: 2015 Enrollment EstimatesRecent Enrollment Change Varies by Segment
Fall-2010
Fall-2011
Fall-2012
Fall-2013
Fall-2014
Fall-2015
40,00045,00050,00055,00060,000
51,966
56,303
University of Massa-chusetts
Fall-2010
Fall-2011
Fall-2012
Fall-2013
Fall-2014
Fall-2015
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
40,512
42,390
41,812
State Universities
Peak Year
Fall-2010
Fall-2011
Fall-2012
Fall-2013
Fall-2014
Fall-2015
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
100,480
100,798
92,707
Community Colleges
Peak Year
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Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates
University of MassachusettsRecent increases in undergraduate enrollment associated with notable increase in international student enrollment.
Fall-2012
Fall-2013
Fall-2014
Fall-2015
2012-2015
ChangeIn-State 45,508 45,668 45,924 46,418 +2%Out-of-State 6,710 6,806 6,823 6,731 0%
International 1,646 2,162 2,630 3,150 +91%
University of Massachusetts Undergraduate Enrollment
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Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates
State UniversitiesGrowth in state university undergraduate enrollment has slowed in recent years. Past year showed no growth at the segment level.
06 to 07
07 to 08
08 to 09
09 to 10
10 to 11
11 to 12
12 to 13
13 to 14
14 to 15-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%1.9% 1.8%
2.9% 2.6% 2.3% 2.8%
0.5%1.3%
-0.6%
State University Year-to-Year Fall Undergraduate Enrollment Change
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Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates
Community CollegesAccelerated enrollment declines in recent years follow years of unprecedented enrollment growth. Note that rapid growth from ‘06 to ‘10 coincided with both a boom in high school graduates and the onslaught of the great recession.
06 to 07 07 to 08 08 to 09 09 to 10 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
10.0%12.0%
1.5%3.6%
5.0%
10.3%
2.5%
0.0%
0.4%
-1.0%
-4.3%
Community College Year-to-Year Fall Undergraduate Enrollment Change
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Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates
Community CollegesHistorically, Community College Enrollment is more volatile than enrollment at the four-year institutions.
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 201530000400005000060000700008000090000
100000110000
72,774
66,779
88936
100798
92707
42,280 33,922 41841 41812
51,62043,750
56303
Fall Undergraduate Enrollment 1988–2015
Community Colleges State Universities UMass
Source: MA DHE, USDOE
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What factors necessitate the need for increased enrollment?
“The Perfect Storm” Growth in jobs that require a college-educated workforce Declines in college-age population Persistent low college completion rates Persistent gaps in college enrollment and completion
among growing underserved populations.
Public Higher Education in Massachusetts has been grappling with relatively flat student outcomes at a time in which the demand for college degrees is perpetually increasing.
Highlights: 2015 Enrollment EstimatesEnrollment Influences and Strategies
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Highlights: 2015 Enrollment EstimatesEnrollment Influences and Strategies
72% of jobs will require postsecondary education
Growth in Jobs that Require a College-Educated Workforce: 2010–2020
Source: “Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020”, Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce
Estimated Jobs by Education Level 2010–2020
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
Less than High School
High School Diploma
Some College
Associates Degree
Bachelors
Masters Or Higher
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Highlights: 2015 Enrollment EstimatesEnrollment Influences and Strategies
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Bachelors Associates
Estimated Shortfall in Public Higher Education Degreed Workers
Compared with Estimated Need: 2015–2020
Source: “Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020”, Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce
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Implementation of new system-wide policies and practices can change the trajectory.
However, there needs to be a continuous PK–16 effort to advance educational attainment if we are to adequately meet the requirements of the Commonwealth’s economy.
Highlights: 2015 Enrollment Estimates
Strategies to Address Declines
“The Big Three”
Discussion